NCAA Championships Team Scoring Projections & Updates
NCAA Championships Team Scoring Projections & Updates
2012 NCAA Indoor Championships - Team Scoring Projections/Updates
Nampa, Idaho - March 9-10, 2012
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NCAA Prediction Contest with Running Warehouse
These are my own projections, and based on calculations. Feel free to argue; none of us really know how the championship is going to play out.
You can see my previews of the meet:
Men's teams, men's individuals
Women's teams, women's individuals
Women's final scores
Oregon is by far the best team in the country and showed it. They hold back during the indoor season, and held back more here, and still trounced the field. Kansas was carried to runner-up on the shoulders of sophomore quarter-miler Diamond Dixon. LSU's win in the culminating 4x400 relay got them up into third.
Place Team Points
1 Oregon 49.00
2 Kansas 30.00
3 LSU 27.00
4 Texas 25.00
5 Arkansas 24.00
5 Texas A&M 24.00
5 Clemson 24.00
8 UCF 23.00
9 Florida 22.00
10 Iowa State 21.00
Men's final scores
Florida rode out its one rough spot, an injury to heptathlon star Gray Horn, to win this. Arkansas was going to need darn near a perfect meet to beat the Gators, and perfect meets just don't happen often. Arizona took third on the strength of four athletes: distance runners Lawi Lalang and Stephen Sambu, and high jumpers Nick Ross and Edgar Rivera-Morales.Final scores
1 Florida 52.00
2 Arkansas 47.00
3 Arizona 41.00
4 Arizona State 31.00
5 LSU 27.00
6 Indiana 25.00
7 Texas 22.50
8 Texas A&M 22.00
8 Florida State 22.00
8 Virginia Tech 22.00
Women's 3000 meters and triple jump
Now there are just two events left, the shot put and the 4x400. None of the top ten teams have a shot put finalist, so that doesn't really matter in the team competition, but the 4x400 does. Here are the current team standings. Teams competing in the 4x400 are in bold. Kansas is the favorite.
1 Oregon 49.00
2 Kansas 24.00
2 Clemson 24.00
4 UCF 23.00
5 Florida 21.00
5 Iowa State 21.00
7 Texas A&M 20.00
8 BYU 19.00
8 Arkansas 19.00
10 Stanford 18.00
Men's 3000 meters
Another fantastic race, another amazing last lap between Lawi Lalang and Chris Derrick, another tenacious run from behind by Cam Levins.In terms of team scoring, it's all but over. Just the 4x400 remains. Below are the current team standings, and bold teams have 4x400s. Arkansas is the favorite.
1 Florida 52
2 Arizona 41
3 Arkansas 37
4 Arizona State 31
5 Indiana 24
6 Texas 22.5
7 Florida State 22
7 Texas A&M 22
7 Virginia Tech 22
10 Stanford 21
10 LSU 21
Women's 800 meters and pole vault
Oregon has it in the bag, but the rest of the trophies need to be sorted out. Kansas' Andrea Guebelle is leading the triple jump, and if Diamond Dixon can work some more 400 magic on the relay, the Jayhawks could be national runners-up.
Projections...
Oregon 51 ( 44 scored)
Kansas 34 ( 14 scored)
Texas A&M 28 ( 20 scored)
Clemson 24 ( 23 scored)
Florida 24 ( 18 scored)
LSU 23 ( 17 scored)
Arkansas 23 ( 19 scored)
UCF 23 ( 23 scored)
Texas 22 ( 17 scored)
Arizona 21 ( 13 scored)
Men's Triple Jump and 800 meters
Now it's official: Florida has clinched the national championship. Omar Craddock's win puts the Gators at 50 points, and no one else can get past 47. Sean Obinwa piles on another two in the 800.The rest of the teams...
Florida 52 ( 52 on the board)
Arkansas 47 ( 37 on the board)
Arizona 46 ( 28 on the board)
Arizona St 31 ( 31 on the board)
LSU 25 ( 21 on the board)
Texas A&M 25 ( 22 on the board)
Indiana 24 ( 24 on the board)
Texas 22.5 ( 22.5 on the board)
Virginia Tech 22 ( 22 on the board)
Florida St. 22 ( 22 on the board)
Women's 60 meters -- FINAL
If the team race wasn't over before, it definitely is now. Oregon's English Gardner adds an exclamation point with a win. The race for second rages on.
Oregon 51 ( 44 banked)
Kansas 34 ( 14 banked)
LSU 29 ( 12 banked)
Clemson 28 ( 23 banked)
Texas A&M 28 ( 20 banked)
Arkansas 23 ( 9 banked)
UCF 23 ( 23 banked)
Texas 22 ( 17 banked)
Florida 21 ( 18 banked)
Arizona 21 ( 13 banked)
Men's 60 meters -- FINAL
If Don Meredith were here, he'd be singing "Turn out the lights, the party's over". With Jeff Demps' third straigh win, Florida now has 40 points, and Omar Craddock has a huge lead in the triple jump through five rounds. In a few minutes the Gators will have officially clinched the title.The battle for second...
Florida 56 ( 40 banked
Arkansas 47 ( 37 banked
Arizona 46 ( 28 banked
LSU 25 ( 21 banked
Indiana 24 ( 24 banked
Florida St. 23 ( 19 banked
Arizona St 23 ( 13 banked
Texas 22.5 ( 22.5 banked
Virginia Tech 22 ( 16 banked
Texas A&M 22 ( 14 banked
Women's 400 meters -- FINAL
By Phyllis Francis scoring five points, and Clemson's Marlena Wesh scoring only four, Oregon has all but officially clinched the title. The Ducks have 34 points and I don't see anyone else being able to beat it.
Current final score predictions and points on the board:
Oregon 51 ( 34 banked)
Kansas 34 ( 14 banked)
LSU 29 ( 11 banked)
Clemson 29 ( 20 banked)
Texas A&M 26 ( 15 banked)
Arkansas 23 ( 9 banked)
UCF 22 ( 9 banked)
Texas 22 ( 17 banked)
Florida 21 ( 18 banked)
Arizona 21 ( 13 banked)
Men's 400 meters -- FINAL
It's looking more and more like Florida is going to win the championship. Tony McQuay's win give them 30 points, Omar Craddock is leading the triple jump, and Jeff Demps is up next. Arkansas only has the 4x400 left, so the highest they can go is 47 points. It's not over yet, but it's almost over.Updated projected scores and points on the board:
Florida 56 ( 30 banked)
Arkansas 47 ( 37 banked)
Arizona 46 ( 28 banked)
Florida St. 27 ( 10 banked)
LSU 25 ( 21 banked)
Indiana 24 ( 24 banked)
Arizona St 23 ( 13 banked)
Texas 22.5 ( 22.5 banked)
Virginia Tech 22 ( 16 banked)
Texas A&M 22 ( 14 banked)
Women's Hurdles -- FINAL
Clemson did about as well as could be expected, and came away with 14 points. They have a fighting chance, with athletes in the 400, 200 and triple jump.
Updated projected scores and points on the board:
Oregon 48 ( 29 banked)
Clemson 35 ( 16 banked)
Kansas 30 ( 4 banked)
Arkansas 27 ( 1 banked)
Texas A&M 26 ( 15 banked)
LSU 25 ( 11 banked)
UCF 22 ( 9 banked)
Texas 22 ( 17 banked)
Arizona 21 ( 13 banked)
Washington 20 ( 10 banked)
Men's Hurdles -- FINAL
Both Arkansas and Florida had a hurdler in this race, but neither made much of the scoring opportunity. Arkansas is down to the 400 and 4x400, while Florida has someone in everything save the 3000 and 4x400. So it's a matter of which team does the most with what they have.Updated projected final scores and points on the board:
Florida 52 (20 banked)
Arkansas 48 (32 banked)
Arizona 46 (28 banked)
LSU 28 (17 banked)
Indiana 24 (24 banked)
Florida St. 23 (10 banked)
Texas 22.5 (22.5 banked)
Texas A&M 22 (14 banked)
Arizona St 21 (13 banked)
Georgia 21 (3 banked)
Women's Mile -- FINAL
I though this was make the it or break it event for Oregon, with three milers in the final. In the end it was inconclusive. The Ducks scored 11 points, less than expected, but they've got 29 points on the board now and not many teams can reach that. Still some work to do.
Current final score projections and points in the bank:
Oregon 48 (29 banked)
Clemson 39 (2 banked)
Kansas 30 (4 banked)
LSU 29 (10 banked)
Arkansas 27 (1 banked)
Texas A&M 25 (12 banked)
UCF 22 (5 banked)
Texas 22 (17 banked)
Arizona 21 (13 banked)
Washington 20 (10 banked)
Men's Mile -- FINAL
A great race, but not one that had much impact on the team scoring. It's the only event tonight that doesn't, by the way.Florida 54 (19 banked)
Arkansas 47 (29 banked)
Arizona 46 (28 banked)
LSU 28 (11 banked)
Indiana 24 (24 banked)
Florida St. 23 (10 banked)
Texas 22.5 (22.5 banked)
Arizona St 21 (13 banked)
Texas A&M 21 (12 banked)
Georgia 21 (3 banked)
Virginia Tech 20 (16 banked)
Men's Weight Throw
Virginia Tech takes 1st and 3rd for 16 points, but they're not going to score a whole lot more. Florida's Jeremy Postin did well for his team, scoring five points, which is a few more than was expected. Current team scoring projections and points in the bank:Florida 54 (19 banked)
Arkansas 47 (29 banked)
Arizona 46 (28)
LSU 28 (11)
Florida St. 23 (10)
Texas 22.5 (22.5)
Indiana 22 (20)
Arizona St 21 (13)
Texas A&M 21 (12)
Georgia 21 (3)
Men's High Jump
A big upset here, as NCAA outdoor champion Erik Kynard has his worst outing since last year's indoor championship. From a team standpoint, this was very interesting.Arizona scored 12 points, giving them 28 in the bank. If they can go 1-2 in the 3000, they'd have 46, which might be enough to win. Florida got a much-needed seven points, putting them on top (barely) in the projected final scores.
Projected and banked points as of now:
Florida 51 (14 banked)
Arkansas 47 (29 banked)
Arizona 46 (28)
LSU 30 (10)
Florida St. 23 (10)
Texas 22.5 (22.5)
Indiana 22 (20)
Virginia Tech 22 (0)
Arizona St 21 (13)
Texas A&M 21 (12)
Women's Pentathlon -- FINAL
No real changes to team scoring expectations here. Oregon got ten points in the bank from Theisen, and of the others expected to be in the top ten, only Florida scored (or was expected to).
Current final team score projections:
Oregon 53 (18 in the bank)
Clemson 39 (2 in the bank)
Arkansas 30 (0)
Kansas 30 (4)
LSU 29 (10)
Texas A&M 25 (12)
UCF 22 (5)
Arizona 21 (13)
Washington 20 (10)
Florida 20 (7)
Women's Pentathlon long jump
Brianne Theisen's solid result here means the number to watch is 2:12.62. If she beats that in the concluding 800 meters, she breaks her own collegiate (and Canadian) record.
Quietly having a great meet is Notre Dame's Maddie Buttinger. Seeded only twelfth, she is now third and might be able to move up to second, as she's a better 800 runner than Wisconsin's Dorcas Akinniyi, currently in second.
Last year's NCAA heptathlon champ, Ryan Krais, is way back in eighth. She'll move up because she's by far the best 800 runner in the competition, but probably can't get any higher than fourth.
Current projections for the final pentathlon standings:
1. Brianne Theisen, Oregon
2. Dorcas Akinniyi, Wisconsin
3. Maddie Buttinger, Notre Dame
4. Ryann Krais, Kansas State
5. Barbara Nwaba, UCSB
6. Brittany Harrell, Florida
7. Olimpia Nowak, Northern Iowa
8. Kaylon Eppinger, Alabama
Men's Heptathlon -- FINAL
He did it. Curtis Beach ran an insane 2:23.63, erasing a deficit of 236 points to win the heptathlon. It's a world record for the heptathlon by over four seconds, and is tenth on the collegiate list this year. He barely missed the Duke school record. For cryin' out loud, Jeremy Rae only ran 2:23.45 this year, and he anchored the winning Distance Medley last night. Unbelievable.Arkansas' Kevin Lazas and Gunnar Nixon held the positions I expected and racked up another seven points for the Hogs. Here's how the final team scores are projected at this point.
Arkansas 47
Florida 46
Arizona 41
LSU 30
Arizona St 24
Texas 23.5
Florida St. 23
Virginia Tech 22
Texas A&M 21
Georgia 20
Every. Point. Counts.
Men's Heptathlon pole vault
Duke's Curtis Beach set a new PR, and that's big. Why? It doesn't seem like it would matter. He sits fourth in the standings, more than 200 points out of the lead. It matters because, like the guy running third leg on a relay with a beast at anchor, all he needed was to get it close enough.The final event is the 1000 meters. Leader Japeth Cato of Wisconsin is the slowest in the field, and Beach is the fastest--not just in the field, but the fastest heptathlete of all time. So if there's ground to be made up, he can do it. The gap just needed to be close enough, and it is.
How-EVA! (say this with a Stephen A. Smith inflection) That lead is big, because Cato matched his pole vault PR. He leads by 236 points, and the difference in his and Beach's 1000m PRs is 254 points.
Insane. This is amazing. It will come down to the wire. Projected order of finish:
1. & 2. Curtis Beach, Duke / Japheth Cato, Wisconsin (impossible to separate)
3. Kevin Lazas, Arkansas
4. Bjorn Barrefors, Nebraska
5. Cory Holman, Georgia
6. Romain Martin, UT-Arlington
7. Petter Olson, Texas
8. Gunnar Nixon, Arkansas
Note the third and eighth for Arkansas -- big time team points.
Women's Pentathlon shot put
Theisen had a solid shot put, not great, solid. She remains on course to possibly threaten her own collegiate record. Barring disaster, she will win. Wisconsin's Dorcas Akinniyi had a huge throw, breaking her PR by almost three feet, and now is in good position to be the runner-up. Current projected final standings:
Brianne Theisen, Oregon
Dorcas Akinniyi, Wisconsin
Ryann Krais, Kansas State
Barbara Nwaba, UCSB
Olimpia Nowak, Northern Iowa
Maddie Buttinger, Notre Dame
Malaikah Love, So. Illinois
Jasmine Cotten, Cincinnati
Women's Pentathlon high jump
Oregon's Brianne Theisen jumped high and is having a great day. She could challenge her own collegiate (and Canadian) record. Wisconsin's Dorcas Akinniyi set two high jump PRs here and moves into a projected second place, ahead of K-State's Ryan Krais, who had a subpar outing here.
Current projections for the final pentathlon standings:
Brianne Theisen, Oregon
Dorcas Akinniyi, Wisconsin
Ryann Krais, Kansas State
Olimpia Nowak, Northern Iowa
Barbara Nwaba, UCSB
Malaikah Love, So. Illinois
Jasmine Cotten, Cincinnati
Maddie Buttinger, Notre Dame
Major development -- Gray Horn OUT
Wisconsin's twitter account reports that Florida's Gray Horn has withdrawn from the remainder of the heptathlon due to injury. The entire championship race is completely different now. Whereas Florida had been the favorite to win, now it's dead even between the Gators and Arkansas, and even Arizona stands a decent chance. Every single event today counts, because all but the mile have one or more finalists from at least one of those three teams.Edit: withdrawal confirmed
The updated final team score projections:
Arkansas 47
Florida 46
Arizona 41
LSU 30
Arizona St 24
Texas 23.5
Florida St. 23
Virginia Tech 22
Texas A&M 21
Georgia 20
Women's Pentathlon hurdles
Imagine being Brianne Theisen. Your fiance is overseas, working on a World Championships gold medal and World Record--at the same time that you're trying to sleep and prepare yourself for your own assault on a championship and a record. Looks like she's managing it well, as she started off the competition with a big PR in the hurdles.
Here's how I project the final pentathlon standings after the first event:
Brianne Theisen, Oregon
Ryann Krais, Kansas State
Barbara Nwaba, UCSB
Malaikah Love, So. Illinois
Dorcas Akinniyi, Wisconsin
Jasmine Cotten, Cincinnati
Olimpia Nowak, Northern Iowa
Makeba Alcide, Arkansas
Men's Heptathlon hurdles
Gray Horn had another outstanding event, with a PR by 0.06 in 7.93. He's on pace to break his heptathlon PR by 100 points or more. Kansas State's Mantas Silauskas was a dnf and is totally out of it now. The athlete who did the best here compared to his own standards was Arkansas' Kevin Lazas, and the one who did the worst was teammate Gunnar Nixon. Nixon, the current yearly NCAA leader, has slipping out of scoring position, but Lazas is doing quite well. My current projection of the heptathlon final order of finish:Gray Horn, Florida
Japheth Cato, Wisconsin
Curtis Beach, Duke
Kevin Lazas, Arkansas
Bjorn Barrefors, Nebraska
Romain Martin, UT-Arlington
Petter Olson, Texas
Cory Holman, Georgia
Women's Distance Medley -- FINAL
Washington won a thriller of a race. Oregon got second, a big wind in their sails. They've still got a lot of work to do tomorrow, but they're in excellent position for winning another NCAA Championship.
The long jump is now complete as well. It had essentially no effect on the top of the standings. The USA may have found another jumper, though, as TCU's Whitney Gipson tied the collegiate indoor record with a huge 6.91 meter (22' 8") jump.
The high jump is still going on, but will also have basically no effect on the top of the team standings. After the first day, here are my projected final team scores:
Oregon 53
Clemson 39
Arkansas 31
Kansas 30
LSU 29
Texas A&M 25
UCF 22
Arizona 21
Washington 20
So. Illinois 20
Men's Distance Medley -- FINAL
An exciting contest, to be sure, and one that proves Notre Dame's Jeremy Rae knows how to race. Indiana gets second. Does that make Indiana the home state of middle distance running?In terms of team scoring, Arkansas got four points out of this race. That's not a huge amount, but every little bit counts. The Hogs keep chipping away. The updated final team score projection shows a distinct narrowing between Florida and Arkansas. This championship is obviously still up for grabs. How I see it at the end of the first day:
Florida 56
Arkansas 47
Arizona 41
LSU 30
Arizona St 24
Florida St. 23
Virginia Tech 22
Texas A&M 21
Texas 20.5
Georgia 20
Women's 200 meters -- FINAL
LSU's Kimberlyn Duncan won, as expected. The only impact this had on the team race was that Clemson only scored two points here. It's not that the Tigers were expected to do more than that--they weren't--but with each passing event, the maximum score they can achieve gets lower and lower. So Oregon regains some breathing room. Current final team score projection:
Oregon 50
Clemson 39
Arkansas 32
LSU 29
Kansas 29
Texas A&M 25
California 23
UCF 22
Arizona 21
Washington 20
So. Illinois 20
Men's 200 meters & Pole Vault -- FINAL
Arkansas is hanging in there, getting a big ten points in winning the pole vault and another big 8 points by getting second in the 200. The door remains open.Texas A&M's champion, Ameer Webb, was the California junior college champion at 100 and 200 meters last year. The Cal JCs run their own championships and don't participate in the national JuCo meet. So he's unknown to many of us, but obviously doesn't deserve the anonymity and never has.
Current final team score projections have narrowed a bit:
Florida 56
Arkansas 44
Arizona 41
LSU 30
Texas A&M 25
Arizona St 24
Florida St. 23
Virginia Tech 22
Texas 20.5
BYU 20
Women's 5000 meters -- FINAL
Another battle to the finish, another Kenyan beating out a NorCal runner on the final lap. Betsy Saina (Iowa State) beats Deborah Maier (Cal). In terms of team competition, this was huge: with two entrants, both figured to be in the top ten, Oregon scored zip. Zilch. Zero. The Ducks have come back to the pack. Updated final team score projection:
Oregon 50
Clemson 39
Arkansas 32
Texas A&M 30
Kansas 29
LSU 27
California 23
UCF 21
Arizona 21
Washington 20
Men's 5000 meters -- FINAL
Everyone said it was hard to imagine a scenario in which Lawi Lalang got beat. Chris Derrick didn't beat him, but he made it closer than anyone imagined. Much analysis and deconstruction of this race will be made in coming days, so no need for me to do it here, except to note that a) Chris Derrick will have an impact on US national teams for many years to come, and b) Cam Levins is going to be a darned good marathoner.In terms of team competition, Stephen Sambu's third-place finish is one place behind how I thought he'd do, which takes two points off Arizona's projected total. Updated final team score projections (inlcuding real-time pole vault updates):
Florida 56
Arizona 41
Arkansas 33
LSU 30
Florida St. 25
Texas A&M 25
Arizona St 24
Virginia Tech 22
Texas 20.5
BYU 20
Women's 200 meters heats
While Texas A&M qualified two runners to the final, they had four entries in the event. So they'll score a bit less here than I expected. Clemson got Dezerea Bryant through to the final, which gives them a chance to try to close the gap with Oregon. Updated final team score projections:
Oregon 55
Clemson 39
Arkansas 32
Texas A&M 29
Kansas 29
LSU 27
California 25
Washington 23
UCF 21
So. Illinois 20
Men's 200 meters heats
Texas A&M's Ameer Webb ran a nifty 20.39, faster than the indoor PR of defending NCAA outdoor champ Maurice Mitchell. That sets up a great battle in the finals later tonight. Did Webb leave enough gas in the tank for another great race? We'll have to wait and see. In terms of team competition, Arkansas' Akheem Gauntlett equaled his indoor PR and got to the finals, keeping hope alive for the Hogs. Updated final team score projections:Florida 56
Arizona 43
Arkansas 39
LSU 30
Florida St. 25
Texas A&M 25
BYU 24
Arizona St 24
Virginia Tech 22
Georgia 20
Men's Long Jump -- FINAL
The Florida Gators finally had an event not go well for them. I had Marquis Dendy projected for second place and eight points, but he finished eighth and scored just one. Florida still has a decent cushion to work with, though. Updated final score projection:Florida 56
Arizona 43
Arkansas 41
LSU 30
Florida St. 27
BYU 24
Arizona St 24
Texas A&M 23
Virginia Tech 22
Georgia 20
Women's 800 meters heats
Oregon's Laura Roesler didn't advance to the final. That hurts, but not as much as you'd think. I only had her figured for two points. In fact, this event opened up some daylight between Oregon and the rest of the competition, because Arkansas' Stephanie Brown didn't qualify either--and I had her figured for eight points. The Ducks are getting more and more breathing room with every event. Updated final score projections:
Oregon 55
Clemson 38
Texas A&M 33
Arkansas 32
Kansas 29
LSU 27
California 25
Washington 23
So. Illinois 20
Arizona 18
Men's 800 meters heats
Florida got Sean Obinwa qualified to the final and looking pretty good while he did it. I'm now figuring him for third in tomorrow's final. Updated projected final scores:Florida 63
Arizona 43
Arkansas 41
LSU 30
Florida St. 27
BYU 24
Arizona St 24
Texas A&M 23
Virginia Tech 22
Georgia 20
Men's Shot Put -- FINAL
Well, this certainly was interesting. Florida's Kemal Mesic led going into the final round and ended up third. Texas' Jacob Thormaehlen passed him, and so did Arizona State's Jordan Clarke, who won his second NCAA championship. I had figured Florida for 8 points, and they got 6, so this brings them back to the pack, but only barely. Updated projected final standings:Florida 60
Arizona 43
Arkansas 41
LSU 30
Florida St. 27
Texas A&M 25
BYU 24
Arizona St 22
Virginia Tech 22
Minnesota 22
Women's 60 meters heats
If Clemson is to challenge for the team title, they need to pile up points in the 60. It doesn't look like they'll be able to; the Tigers advanced only one of their three entrants. Oregon's English Gardner qualfified and with the fastest time to boot. More breathing room for the Ducks. Update projected final team scores:
Oregon 57
Arkansas 40
Clemson 38
Texas A&M 33
Kansas 29
LSU 28
California 25
Washington 23
So. Illinois 20
Arizona 18
Men's 60 meters heats
Danger lurks in short events like this. One mistake and there's no time to recover. Florida's Jeff Demps got through it and looked every bit the two-time defending national champion, running a PR of 6.52. Florida State's pair, Maurice Mitchell and Kemar Hyman, looked very good, but the Seminoles don't have enough firepower in this meet to contend for the team title. Updated projected final team scores:Florida 62
Arizona 43
Arkansas 41
LSU 30
Florida St. 27
Texas A&M 25
BYU 24
Virginia Tech 22
Minnesota 22
Texas 18
Women's 400 meters heats
This was very important on the women's side too. Oregon doesn't need points here, but Clemson and Arkansas do. So it's a bonus that the Ducks' Phyllis Francis qualified and a penalty that the Hogs' Whitney Jones did not. Oregon now has a bit more breathing room. Updated projected final scores:
Oregon 55
Clemson 43
Arkansas 40
Texas A&M 33
Kansas 29
LSU 28
California 25
Washington 23
So. Illinois 20
Arizona 18
Men's 400 meters heats
This was an important event for both Florida and Arkansas. The Gators' Tony McQuay qualified and in convincing fashion, running 45.85 for the only sub-46.00 by a collegian this year. The Hogs' Marek Niit qualified and looked good, but teammate Neil Braddy did not and that really hurt. Advantage Florida. How it looks to shake out now:Florida 62
Arizona 43
Arkansas 41
LSU 30
Texas A&M 25
BYU 24
Florida St. 23
Mississippi St. 22
Virginia Tech 22
Minnesota 22
Women's hurdles heats
A small shake-up here. Arkansas' Ivanique Kemp does not qualify, Texas A&M's Donique' Flemings does, and Clemson's Brianna Rollins now assumes the mantle of favorite. Updated projected final scores:
Oregon 53
Clemson 43
Arkansas 42
LSU 33
Texas A&M 33
Kansas 29
California 25
Washington 23
So. Illinois 20
Arizona 18
Men's hurdles heats
Florida, Arkansas, LSU and Texas A&M all get a hurdler through to the finals. Only minor adjustments to the projected final scores.Florida 62
Arizona 43
Arkansas 42
LSU 28
Mississippi St. 28
Texas A&M 25
BYU 24
Florida St. 23
Virginia Tech 22
Minnesota 22
Women's mile heats
The Oregon Ducks are relying on three milers--Anne Kesselring, Jordan Hasay and Becca Friday--and all made it through to the finals. Florida's Cory McGee did not, and that increases the score projected for Oregon. Here's how I predict the final scores right now:
Oregon 53
Arkansas 44
Clemson 39
LSU 33
Texas A&M 31
Kansas 29
California 25
Washington 23
So. Illinois 20
Arizona 18
Men's mile heats
The only major player who did not qualify was Ohio State's Cory Leslie. So the heats had no real impact on the team championship race.After updating the standings to include the current heptathlon projections, here's how the final scores look to shake out:
Florida 60
Arkansas 43
Arizona 43
Mississippi St. 28
LSU 27
BYU 24
Texas A&M 24
Florida St. 23
Virginia Tech 22
Minnesota 22
Women's weight throw
The weight throw was not expected to have a big impact on the team scoring. I had projected LSU's Denise Hinton for three points but she finished well out of the scoring.
Current projected final team scores:
1. Oregon 51
2. Arkansas 43
3. Clemson 39
4. LSU 33
5. Texas A&M 31
6. Kansas 29
7. California 25
8. Washington 23
9. So. Illinois 20
10. Arizona 18
Men's Heptathlon high jump
Japeth Cato moved himself back into second in the final heptathlon projections with a good result in the high jump. Gray Horn had a slightly subpar outing in this event, so this is a long way from over. While Arkansas' Gunnar Nixon is not reproducing his results from earlier this year, his teammate Kevin Lazas is picking up the slack moving up the standings.
The current projections of final heptathlon standings:
1. Gray Horn, Florida
2. Japheth Cato, Wisconsin
3. Curtis Beach, Duke
4. Kevin Lazas, Arkansas
5. Bjorn Barrefors, Nebraska
6. Romain Martin, UT-Arlington
7. Gunnar Nixon, Arkansas
8. Cory Holman, Georgia
Men's Heptathlon shot put
Gray Horn put up a PR in the shot and is cruising through the heptathlon. A good result for Curtis Beach paired with a below-average one for Japeth Cato means that Beach is now projected to finish second. A huge result for Bjorn Barrefors rockets him up the standings. Nixon is having a rough day.
The current projections:
1. Gray Horn, Florida
2. Curtis Beach, Duke
3. Japheth Cato, Wisconsin
4. Bjorn Barrefors, Nebraska
5. Gunnar Nixon, Arkansas
6. Kevin Lazas, Arkansas
7. Cory Holman, Georgia
8. Romain Martin, UT-Arlington
Men's Heptathlon long jump
Mantas Silauskas (Kansas State) leads the heptathlon right now, but the first two events are his strong suit. He'll come back to the pack. Arkansas' Gunnar Nixon had a tough time in the long jump, with two fouls in his three jumps, while Gray Horn (Florida), Japheth Cato (Wisconsin) and Curtis Beach (Duke) did well.
Current projections:
1. Gray Horn, Florida
2. Japheth Cato, Wisconsin
3. Curtis Beach, Duke
4. Gunnar Nixon, Arkansas
5. Kevin Lazas, Arkansas
6. Romain Martin, UT-Arlington
7. Bjorn Barrefors, Nebraska
8. Cory Holman, Georgia
Men's Heptathlon 60 meters
A great run for Romain Martin and poor ones for Cory Martin and Curt Felix shake up the projected final standings. Now it looks like this:
Gray Horn, Florida
Japheth Cato, Wisconsin
Gunnar Nixon, Arkansas
Curtis Beach, Duke
Romain Martin, UT-Arlington
Bjorn Barrefors, Nebraska
Cory Holman, Georgia
Mantas Silkauskas, Kansas St
Men's Heptathlon projections
The heptathlon gets underway at noon (Eastern time). Like the team competition, it's a bunch of individual events that add up to a whole. Everyone's strengths and weaknesses are different. So each athletes' event results are important, but more important is how it compares to their own standards.
For each athlete, I've averaged their best two career results (in collegiate competition) for each of the seven events and added up scores. (Gunnar Nixon, being only a freshman and barely having two collegiate competitions to his record, is scored using his single best heptathlon.) Here are the resulting projected final standings:
1. Gray Horn, Florida
2. Japheth Cato, Wisconsin
3. Gunnar Nixon, Arkansas
4. Curtis Beach, Duke
5. Cory Holman, Georgia
6. Kurt Felix, Boise State
7. Bjorn Barrefors, Nebraska
8. Romain Martin, UT-Arlington
I'll update this after every event.
Men's projected final scores
Florida, 60
Arizona, 43
Arkansas, 42
Mississippi St., 28
LSU, 27
Texas A&M, 24
BYU, 24
Florida St., 23
Virginia Tech, 22
Minnesota, 22
Women's projected final scores
Oregon 51
Arkansas 43
Clemson 39
LSU 36
Texas A&M 31
Kansas 29
California 25
Washington 23
So. Illinois 20
Arizona 18