By: Kyle Brazeil, Milesplit
Portland, OR - MileSplit is heading west, as the top teams in the nation descend on Nike Headquarters for the Nike Cross Nationals. For the first time ever, the meet will be held at Glendoveer Golf Course, a course described as a good footing field filled with rolling hills. The weather looks to be wet and warm, in preparation for some of the hottest action in the sport all year. We'll be on the scene all weekend long, capturing all the action.
THE CONTENDERS: A STOTAN SEASON
In 480 BC, 300 Spartans approached war against the overwhelming Persian numbers with stoic indifference. Two millennia later, channeling the amalgamation first coined by Percy Cerutty, the Stotans of Fayetteville-Manlius (NY) face similar foes. Flash back to the first practice of the season, where 23 girls come out for the sport of cross country in the small Syracuse suburb. Their numbers are dwarfed, as the Spartans were, by the rosters of their national competition, many of which run nearly one hundred deep. Of these select few, Coach Aris knows that at least 7 of them will need to be of a national caliber, to continue the traditions set in by their precursors. That tradition is lined with 7 National Titles, among unprecedented individual and team glory. Even in defeat, their numbers still impress, missing out on their 8th-straight title in 2013 by a mere 12 points. Their success has defined the modern age of cross country, and with it comes an aura. Everyone on the starting line come November knows who Fayetteville-Manlius is.
The tradition began back in 2004, when the first Stotans of the program were born onto the national scene. After scoring a perfect 15 at the Manhattan Invite, they were dubbed "The Five First Men." The moniker came about from the fact that they indeed had no frontrunner; any one of the top five was capable of being their first scorer. Flash forward exactly 10 years, and Fayetteville-Manlius now brings you, "The Five First Women." In the past four major invitationals, Fayetteville-Manlius has had exactly four different top scorers. At Manhattan, then Sectionals, then States, then Regionals, a different girl has stepped up to the plate. With their fifth girl being only a step away from winning their League Championship, the Stotans have proved the leaders at NXN will have five faces to watch out for.
Their season hasn't been without setbacks. An early season mishap at McQuaid showed there was still work to be done. They know that September successes and failures are only a measuring stick of potential. With stoic indifference, they returned to the grind. Emerging again at Manhattan, the cloud of uncertainty was lifted, and they began to strike. Three weeks between each successive showing, they emerged a stronger and tighter unit. At regionals, they managed to run as if the snow wasn't on the ground, proving their state meet performance could be replicated. With less than a week to go, it would seem Fayetteville-Manlius was ramping up for success. But that success is never guaranteed without performance, and there are 21 other teams searching for their own.
THE CONTENDERS: A STARK CONTRAST
Newton's third law states that for every action, there is an equal, but opposite reaction. In girls XC, Great Oak (CA) is that reaction. On opposite coasts of the continental United States, everything from their training, their lifestyle, and their philosophies could not differ more from that of Fayetteville-Manlius. Great Oak trains on flat and fast, with near perfect conditions a constant. They embrace the social media and spectacle of the sport, engaging with their fans through interviews and interactions. And they don't fear striking early, winning high-caliber meets in early season, like Clovis, Woodbridge, and Pre-Nats. Their progression has been more gradual than their east coast rivals, a slight improvement over a longer period of time. It is a risk/reward based system, in which teams can be rewarded with early season glory, yet risk their athletes running at a high level for too long.
Chief among those risks are overuse-related injuries, and as the national powers approached the final invitational of the season, disaster struck. National frontrunner, as both a team scorer and an individual, junior Destiny Collins fell off the pace going up the hill at the Mt. SAC Invitational. It would later be discovered that she had developed a slight tendonitis in her upper ankle. It was a tough blow, filled with silver linings. In her absence, in both Mt. SAC, and succeeding races, the girls of Great Oak still dominated the competition. With Collins on the mend, the following five kept their composure, and more importantly their race compression, and kept on improving in the subsequent meets. Collins would soon return, not quite at the level she would have liked, but still relevant to the competition at large. For Collins, while an individual victory may not be in the cards, a single point scorer for her team is very much in the conversation.
And the team is what's most important. Nobody knows that more than Great Oak themselves, who will have a similar rallying cry to that of the Alamo, as an extra incentive presented itself after their boys squad was denied a chance to compete as well, under questionable standards of selection. They will also be racing for teams of California past, who have also entered as favorites to NXN, only to be tripped up by the mud and the mess. That's all the motivation they'll need.
THE CHALLENGERS: CONTINUING THE BLUE STREAK
Success is a tradition inherited from those before you. Their success inspires you to replicate it. And for teams in New York, no family tree dates back further than Saratoga Springs. They've been focused on team glory longer than a majority of the sport has. While many coaches still saw cross country as an individual game, Saratoga was working as a unit, wrapping up 20 NYS Federation titles in the past 25 years. Led by Art and Linda Kranick, first starting in 1985, the rise to power was evident. In 1987, their first showing at Feds was a 4th place finish. A year later, they moved to second. Every year since that, it has been a first place finish, interspersed with a rare second.
That tradition is apparent in the modern era of XC, first begun with the birth of the internet in 2000, and bolstered by the advent of NTN in 2004. Since that time, Saratoga has made every trip out to Portland save one, and have proven they are a forced to be reckoned with. In 2014, their squad has had strong consistency. Each race, a different member has stepped up their speed ratings. However, all athletes have yet to be firing on the same day. That could change out in Portland, as the new course looks to mirror the terrain they train on. Coaches and kids alike can be seen running through the Saratoga Performing Arts Center all season long for practice and competition, and it looks to be very similar to how Glendoveer is laid out. Could they pull the upset, and bring the title back to 'Toga? Continued consistency will be the key.
THE CHALLENGERS: MIDWEST MADNESS
In what some may argue as having been the most competitive regional for the girls (others may argue for NY, despite scoring gaps), the Midwest will be bringing the heat to Nike Cross Nationals. Carmel (IN) has emerged as a significant title threat, running with a strong compression, bolstered by an even stronger top half. They also know how to handle the national field. They have been a top 5 team the past three years, and look almost guaranteed to repeat that in 2014. How high will they go? The sky is the limit. However, they won't be the sole competitors with something to say. Both Naperville North (IL) and Palatine (IL) were within 20 points of Carmel, and within 3 points of each other. The teams are so strong, it will be an interesting battle of the regions. Will the three teams from the Midwest average a better finishing spot than those from NY? With an ability to put three on the podium, that race could be close.
THE CHALLENGERS: 2013 REMIX
The pair had two very different stories in 2013. Unionville (PA), became the talk of the nation after an extremely strong showing at McQuaid and Manhattan. Both times, they had tackled the then-reigning national champions, Fayetteville-Manlius. However, as the season progressed, they became victims of their own prolonged schedule, with illness and injury affecting the frontrunners. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Wayzata (MN), was relatively unknown on the national scene for most of the season. They had impressive wins, yes, but not of the caliber out east. And yet, their injuries from the early season cleared up with time to spare, and a revitalized Anna French led her squad to a National Title. Both are back in 2014. Unionville, learning from their own hardships, delayed their season to mid-October. They improved to second place at the state meet, with three weeks left of training before regionals. At Bowdoin Park, they struck, running the last mile in their typical fashion, and blowing out the field. There is no reason to suspect they couldn't win it all. Wayzata also see's the return of French, among two others who were on that national title team. Could they come out again, and snatch the win?
THE CONSIDERATIONS: BACK IN BLACK
The girls of Blacksburg (VA) are returning to Portland with something to prove. They look more solid as a squad, than their 20th place showing in 2013 would indicate. Their compression has been key, winning over other NXN-qualifying squads at Great American. They returned to form at the Southeast regional, after training through a modest State Meet performance. Could they reclaim their dominance over teams like Saratoga, and move them up into podium potentials? It is very possible.
THE CONSIDERATIONS: TIES TO HOME
Shenendehowa (NY) knew it was do-or-die come time for their Sectional race. They were up against a resurgent Saratoga, who had shown weakness mid-season, but had been improving steadily. Shen knew they had to strike while the iron was hot. They put their 1-2 in first overall, and the girls followed in closely behind. At the end of the day, they had tied the 9-time NXN Qualifiers, but lost on the tie-breaker. If the Horseman run like that again, they could be very dangerous. At the regional, and the Federation meet, they were off Saratoga by a decent margin, but success is relative to the competition, and they could challenge for a top 10 position at NXN.
THE CONSIDERATIONS: SOUTHWEST SCRAMBLE
Three teams who have scrambled all season for dominance in a talent rich region, will approach the Nike Cross Nationals as a unified front. American Fork (UT) and Davis (UT) share the same schedules as their male teammates, and the clashes are no less competitive here. Both teams have something to look forward to, as Davis will be returning a Tatum Beard, who was their 3rd girl for much of the early season. For American Fork,Maddie Bench will rejoin the fight, after suffering a tough DNF at the regional, due to a high fever. Both members could have a significant impact should they return to form. And what of Desert Vista (AZ), who gave Great Oak a run for their money at Nike Pre Nats. With Dani Jones headlining their squad, they could be a team on the rise. How will things shake out for the southwest? Tune in Saturday to find out.
NXN PROJECTIONS
The below scores are my general projections for Nike Cross Nationals. They are based off a mixture of the eyeball test, speed ratings, and general performance at NXN in the past. It should be noted that these are projections, not predictions. Projections assume that everyone in the race will run well. Predictions accept the fact that that is not true, and try to handicap (mostly unsuccessfully) certain teams or individuals. The below scores are based off the assumption that teams have peaked for Nationals, and are healthy enough to run as hard as they can. With that said, things happen. For some teams, qualifying for NXN was the singular goal. For others, an early race fall to the ground or a mid-trip illness shakes up the entire scoring matrix. But as they stand, they are a good indication of who is "in it" in the coming week.
A note for coaches looking to improve their score. The race at NXN operates on a bell curve. It is much easier to improve your score from the athletes in the middle, than it is from those in front. Also, most race positions are separated only by full and half seconds. That means things can vary greatly with only marginal improvements. The assumption is, however. that everyone will marginally improve, with more so of an improvement from those who qualified earlier in the year (their regional was less of a reflectional of where they'll be now, as compared to those we saw race this past weekend). You can also find another set of projections by clicking here. Bill Meylancreates the speed ratings we use to process the raw data. We then differ on our handicaps, and analysis', his from the point of view of a gambler, while mine are the point of view of a coach. And finally, for the first time ever, we've included the raw data on the next page (to an extent), so if you disagree with the below scores, we have given you the tools to tinker, and create your own.
Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run Team Scores
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Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7)
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1 Manlius XC Club 52 2 6 12 15 17 89 108
Total Time: 52 Average: 10.40 1-5 Split: 15
2 Great Oak 180 3 20 24 66 67 74 84
Total Time: 3:00 Average: 36.00 1-5 Split: 1:04
3 Kinetic 181 10 23 41 50 57 98 146
Total Time: 3:01 Average: 36.20 1-5 Split: 47
4 North Naperville Running 212 27 32 37 40 76 100 131
Total Time: 3:32 Average: 42.40 1-5 Split: 49
5 Carmel Distance Project 219 22 29 51 53 64 70 104
Total Time: 3:39 Average: 43.80 1-5 Split: 42
6 Legacy Track Club 248 18 19 56 69 86 101 143
Total Time: 4:08 Average: 49.60 1-5 Split: 1:08
7 Blacksburg 268 21 31 48 54 114 126 133
Total Time: 4:28 Average: 53.60 1-5 Split: 1:33
8 Palatine XC Club 274 13 42 55 77 87 117 137
Total Time: 4:34 Average: 54.80 1-5 Split: 1:14
9 Wayzata XC 279 5 33 35 95 111 118 142
Total Time: 4:39 Average: 55.80 1-5 Split: 1:46
10 Western Cary 284 4 60 61 79 80 113 135
Total Time: 4:44 Average: 56.80 1-5 Split: 1:16
11 American Fork Cross Count 292 43 47 62 68 72 103 123
Total Time: 4:52 Average: 58.40 1-5 Split: 29
12 Black Bear Running 304 14 16 65 75 134 148 149
Total Time: 5:04 Average: 1:00.80 1-5 Split: 2:00
13 Saugus 316 11 45 78 85 97 112 124
Total Time: 5:16 Average: 1:03.20 1-5 Split: 1:26
14 La Salle XC Club 317 9 34 44 109 121 125 138
Total Time: 5:17 Average: 1:03.40 1-5 Split: 1:52
15 U-Ville Running Club 331 7 49 73 92 110 140 153
Total Time: 5:31 Average: 1:06.20 1-5 Split: 1:43
16 Camas 343 26 30 52 116 119 122 150
Total Time: 5:43 Average: 1:08.60 1-5 Split: 1:33
17 Davis Xc Club 346 8 25 91 107 115 127 145
Total Time: 5:46 Average: 1:09.20 1-5 Split: 1:47
18 Thunder X-c 354 1 38 88 99 128 130 132
Total Time: 5:54 Average: 1:10.80 1-5 Split: 2:07
19 Hebron Cross Country Club 378 28 46 93 105 106 144 151
Total Time: 6:18 Average: 1:15.60 1-5 Split: 1:18
20 Winged Foot Running Club 407 71 81 82 83 90 102 139
Total Time: 6:47 Average: 1:21.40 1-5 Split: 19
21 Marauders 409 39 58 63 120 129 141 154
Total Time: 6:49 Average: 1:21.80 1-5 Split: 1:30
22 Coeur D'Alene 421 36 59 94 96 136 147 152
Total Time: 7:01 Average: 1:24.20 1-5 Split: 1:40