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Austin Tamagno is on a quest to be the No. 1 high schooler this track season

Last year, 19 boys broke 9:00 in the Arcadia 3200m Invitational section. One runner, Estevan De La Rosa, ran 8:56.55 in the seeded section. In the girl’s field, Alexa Efraimson ran away with the race, dipping under the 10:00-barrier en route to her 9:55.92. Three ladies followed running under 10:10. Three more dipped under 10:20. Seven under 10:30. Over the years, Arcadia has become the premier track and field invitational for high schoolers. The “Pre-Nationals” test before the lucky chosen greats compete in the adidas Dream Mile, Brooks PR, or New Balance Nationals.

The boy’s and girl’s all-time best 3200m marks are held by names we still see today: Chris Solinsky’s 8:43.24 from 2003 and Efraimson’s 9:55 from last year. Let’s break down the potential for record-breaking marks and upsets for the Saturday evening slugfest we know as the Arcadia 3200m.

Girls 3200m, Saturday 10:40pm CT
Meet record: 9:55.92
Will It Be Broken? Not likely.

Fiona O’Keeffe out of Davis, California is the fastest returner (5th) from 2014, now that Efraimson is out of the picture and Alaska’s Allie Ostrander opted to race in her home state this weekend. Her personal-best marks of 10:14.60 (set at Arcadia 2014) for 3200m and 16:40.00 for 5000m (cross country) make her seem like the most dangerous in the field. But this junior won’t have an easy ride.

Danielle Jones from Desert Vista HS in Arizona is making the trek to Arcadia to lower her personal best of 10:34.16. Having only raced the mile or 800 at past Arcadia Invites, Jones’ PB would have placed her 19th last year. With the kind of season Jones is having, that will not be the case. She ran 2:09.94 and 4:46.17 for a full mile already this outdoor season, so Arcadia will be her first 3200 race of the year. O’Keeffe has two 3200’s to her name in 2015, with 10:44.41 being her best mark. However, we must throw all previous best marks out the window prior to Arcadia, because O’Keeffe’s best time before her 10:14 was a 10:40. If anyone can challenge O’Keeffe, though, it will be the lady who took her down at NXN, none other than Dani Jones.

Prediction: Jones over O’Keeffe, 10:09.1 - 10:11.6

Boys 3200m, Saturday, 10:55pm CT
Meet record: 8:43.24 
Will It Be Broken? Yep.

The heavy hitters from the class of 2014 are gone and there’s a new crew in town. Last year’s top five are gone, and 6th-place Connor Mantz is racing in Alaska at the Big C Relays. Is this a weak year for Arcadia? Not a chance. Jesse Reiser from McHenry, Illinois ran 8:54.31 in 2014 and finished 9th, making him the top returner in the field. His 6th/8th place finishes at NXN/Foot Locker are impressive and his lone 3200 race of 2015, a 9:02.48, came from an indoor race, according to MileSplit. Does Reiser have it in the bag? Not quite.

The trio that finished 12th-14th in the Arcadia 3200 will all be gunning for that top spot. Elijah Armstrong of Pocatello, Idaho is fresh off a New Balance Indoor Championship in the 5000m and ran 9:01.04 indoors for 3200 at the Simplot Games. Zach Dale out of Conant, Illinois finished sixth in the ever-competitive New Balance Indoor Two Mile, running 8:59.76. This marks his outdoor season debut. But the name on everyone’s radar is junior Austin Tamagno. Tamagno’s 4:06.26 for a full mile just a few weeks ago means the kid’s got wheels. His 14:23.20 Mt SAC course record this fall blew our minds. His fifth-place finish at Foot Locker this fall means he knows how to compete in stacked fields. Our money is on Tamagno wanting to throw down an insane mark to let everyone know that his presence in the adidas Dream Mile come June should be feared.

So will Ben Saarel’s 8:45 from 2013 be in danger!? Will Solinsky’s 8:43 from 2003 be in danger!? It seems likely that these four young stars will all be aiming for a sub 8:50 time because, after all, this is the Arcadia Invite 3200m.

Prediction: Tamagno over everybody in 8:43.20