Perhaps the most startling figure of the drastic jump the DMR has made this year is this: a staggering six teams broke 9:28 in 2016 (a seventh, Virginia, ran a flat track converted 9:27.89), while no other campaign can boast more than two such performances. Just as the 800 and mile have enjoyed historically deep seasons in the NCAA, the DMR— which obviously features many of these same guys— has ridden the mid-D tidal wave that is actively changing our definition of “fast” in NCAA indoor track.

Even amid this season for the record books, though, this field seemingly finds itself in a familiar position: at the mercy of Edward Cheserek.     

King C’s scratching of the mile left open the possibility that he might crash this party, and not even a 5k some 30 minutes prior— or the stronger-than-ever field— is enough for me to pick against a Cheserek-powered Ducks’ squad if he were to run. Yes, he would certainly have his hands full against the likes of 3:53 milers Izaic Yorks (Washington) and Sean McGorty (Stanford), as well as Penn State’s Brannon Kidder, but I’m never going to bet against a guy who has 10 national titles and the nastiest kick in the NCAA no matter what the circumstances.

That said, Oregon may choose to keep Cheserek with just the 5k-3k double, especially if everything goes according to plan in the prelims where the Ducks are expected to score big points and/or other title contending teams slip up in their prelims.

If no Ches, this event is a mess to predict. But that’s what I’m here for, so I’ve broken down the favorites based on their stock value heading into NCAAs. That’s right, it’s time for some Buy or Sell.

Oklahoma State (9:26.60) - SELL

ANCHOR STATUS: FRESH

It would seem like bad business practice to toss the fastest team in the country, and I did not make this decision easily— the Cowboys were my pre-season pick to become DMR royalty in Birmingham. But I’m selling now because I don’t think anchor Josh Thompson can quite swing it yet with guys like Yorks, McGorty, or Kidder. His 1k-mile double at Big 12s certainly gave me pause, but his lack of experience at NCAA Indoors combined with a mile PR that is just eighth best among potential anchors keeps me from opening my wallet.

Here's proof that I may be eating crow come Friday - Ok State's 9:26.60:

Washington (9:27.19) - BUY

ANCHOR STATUS: FRESH

The Huskies finished runner-up behind Ok State at Alex Wilson in 9:27.19, and that squad didn’t use Izaic Yorks on the anchor. Now the unofficial American indoor collegiate record holder in the mile (3:53.89), Yorks is sure to run last for UW, which makes them much more formidable.

Izaic Yorks/Sean McGorty became Dempsey legends with their 3:53s:

Penn State (9:27.20) - BUY

ANCHOR STATUS: NOT FRESH

Down the descending order list we go to the Nittany Lions, who ran 9:27.20 in late January. Frosh Isaiah Harris just set the Big 10 record— 1:46.24— two weekends ago, making him the fastest third legger in the field, and he’ll pass the stick to stellar anchor Brannon Kidder, who has 1:45/3:57 prowess. The senior will have an 800 prelim on his legs, as will Harris, but I’m not too concerned since he’ll have over an hour and 20 minutes before he takes the stick.

Penn State v. Stanford (Kidder v. McGorty) epic duel at Penn State National:

Stanford (9:27.27) - SELL

ANCHOR STATUS: FRESH

This was a brutally tough call, and I’m only passing on the Cardinal based on three minor details: .07, .08, and .06. Those minuscule numbers represent the narrow defeats anchor Sean McGorty has taken in his three races this season, with two of them coming against men he’ll face here (Yorks and Kidder). This team should definitely like their chances as their superstar miler— who just ran 3:53.95— will be completely fresh, but it is concerning that McGorty has been beaten at the line in back-to-back-to-back outings. Without proof that he can seal the deal, I say sell! sell! sell! 

Oregon (9:29.89) - BUY*

ANCHOR STATUS: NOT FRESH

Like I said, I think Cheserek will be a game time decision depending on what happens earlier in the day Friday. If he does toe the line 30 minutes after what should be an honest 5k (thanks to Thomas Curtin), Cheserek will obviously be a lesser version of himself here. But even so, his closing speed advantage combined with the demolition he put on a year ago in the DMR and mile shows his superiority. No one changes gears as well as the King, and he has a closet full of hardware to prove it. 

If no Cheserek, though, Blake Haney and his 3:56 mile speed gives the Ducks the best shot at a colossal upset. However, Haney, like Cheserek and Oregon's other option, Sam Prakel, will be doubling back from a prior race. 

The case against everyone else…

Michigan (9:27.67) and Oklahoma (9:27.70) were both beaten by Ok State and Washington at Alex Wilson, making it easy to strike them from the ballot. Georgetown got crushed by Stanford and Penn State at PSU National, and they will have several legs doubling back.

I do think, however, that Villanova is the sleeper team. Jordy Williamsz laid an egg at the Millrose Games with his 4:03 mile, so his stock is certainly down, but the Aussie shouldn’t be discounted based on one bad race. Last year, his 3:55 anchor was the fastest in the field, and oh yeah, he out-kicked Cheserek in the most infamous NCAA race of 2015. His squad was beaten by G-Town at Big East and they’ve only run 9:29.17, which is why I can’t “buy” them, but Williamsz was the lead off there. A switch to the anchor could be a game changer.   

Other than that, I don’t think anyone else has a shot.  

VERDICT: If Cheserek runs, I’m picking Oregon. But with that all-important info still TBD, I’ll take Penn State in a Cheserek-less DMR.