WOMEN

Emma Coburn will make this team. As far as I could find, only Leah O’Connor, Ashley Higginson, and Stephanie Garcia have even run a flat 3K faster than Coburn’s 9:10 steeple PR and American record set at the Pre Classic last month.

But which five women will snag the last two Olympic spots? O’Connor, Higginson, Garcia, Colleen Quigley, and Courtney Frerichs are the contenders.

Quigley was the third-best American steepler last year, and convincingly beat O’Connor and Frerichs in 2015. But an injury delayed her 2016 debut until last week, when she won the Stumptown 1500m in 4:12.


But even if Quigley was in the best shape of her life, O’Connor and Frerichs have still run faster than her career-best mark this year.

That leaves O’Connor, Higginson, Frerichs, and Garcia for two spots. Garcia has the slowest season-best (9:35), but her 9:23 lifetime-best from last year is second only to O’Connor’s. So before eliminating anyone else from the top three, one question must be answered:

Were O’Connor’s 9:18 at the Pre Classic and Garcia’s 9:35 from Stockholm aberrations, or are they that good now?

Let’s start by looking at how O’Connor has improved in races other than the steeplechase over the past year.

2015: 4:27/9:07 indoor, 4:11/16:03 outdoor
2016: 4:31/8:59 indoor, 4:11/15:38 outdoor

She marginally improved in the mile/1500m, which she had to run for points at her indoor and outdoor collegiate conference meets last year. But she’s made huge leaps in the 3K and 5K without getting worse as a mid-distance runner. Add in her 9:18 at Pre, and it's clear she’s one of the three best steeplers in the country.

But Garcia is a less clear-cut case. Before her poor performance in Stockholm, she PR'd in the mile and 3K indoors and the 5K outdoors. Her SB of 4:06.80 in the 1500m is within shouting distance of the 4:05.39 she ran four weeks before setting her 9:23 steeple PR last year. Stockholm can be fairly graded as a shit day in shit conditions.

That leaves Frerichs, Garcia, and Higginson for one Olympic spot. Frerichs has a career and personal best of 9:24, Garcia has a SB of 9:35 and PB of 9:23, and Higginson has a PB of 9:27 and SB of 9:29.

I’m picking Frerichs for that third spot. She hasn’t lost in steeple all year, so as good as her 9:24 NCAA record is, she might run even faster with competition. Frerichs is a fifth-year senior who’s been at altitude all year, and she’s likely learned from her 9:46 seventh-place finish in the U.S. final last year. That was her 14th race of the season; she’s raced just seven times this year. She didn’t have indoor eligibility this year, and New Mexico needed her points way less than UMKC did last year. After doubling at indoor and outdoor conference championships in 2015, she just ran the 1500m at her outdoor conference meet this year. Frerichs is both fit and fresh.



But I wouldn’t fault you for picking Garcia or Higginson. Unlike Frerichs, both have made teams in the past, and they both smoked Frerichs by 10-plus seconds in the final at USAs last year. They are professional athletes whose entire occupation—well, Higginson has graduated from law school and passed the bar—for several years has been trying to best position themselves to make the Olympic team. They have an extremely good chance.

FINAL: 7:48 PT, Thursday July 7

FloTrack projections:

1. Emma Coburn
2. Leah O’Connor
3. Courtney Frerichs
4. Stephanie Garcia
5. Ashley Higginson
6. Colleen Quigley
7. Jamie Cheever
8. Mel Lawrence

My picks:

1. Emma Coburn
2. Leah O’Connor
3. Courtney Frerichs
4. Ashley Higginson
5. Stephanie Garcia
6. Colleen Quigley
7. Mel Lawrence
8. Jess Kamilos

2016 US leaders:

1. Emma Coburn 9:10.76
2. Leah O’Connor 9:18.85
3. Courtney Frerichs 9:24.41
4. Ashley Higginson 9:29.77
5. Stephanie Garcia 9:35.89
6. Mel Lawrence, 9:36.55
7. Megan Rolland, 9:36.88
8. Jaime Cheever, 9:37.12

Last three Team USAs:

2015 worlds: Coburn, Garcia, Quigley
2013 worlds: Nicole Bush, Higginson, Shalaya Kipp
2012 Olympics: Coburn, Bridget Franek, Kipp

MEN

Evan Jager might be even more of a lock than Coburn. No one else in the field has ever broken 8:13; no one else in American history has broken 8:08; Jager fell on the last barrier in Paris last summer and still ran 8:00. He is the definition of a lock.

That leaves Dan Huling, Cory Leslie, Andy Bayer, Donn Cabral, Stanley Kebenei, and Donnie Cowart as credible contenders for two Olympic slots.

Jager, Huling, and Bayer could give coach Jerry Schumacher another sweep—in 2009, the Schumacher-coached Chris Solinsky, Matt Tegenkamp, and Jager grabbed all three Team USA slots in the 5K (Schumacher's group was part of the Oregon Track Club at the time; all three men first ran for Schumacher at Wisconsin).


Huling is the logical choice for the second spot. He has the second-best PB in the field (0.08 ahead of Cabral), and the third-best SB in the field (0.06 behind Kebenei). He beat Jager in last year’s world championship final to finish fifth and earn the distinction of the best non-Kenyan steeplechaser on the planet. The notoriously prickly 32-year-old also has an early contender for tweet of the year:

The media really is the worst. This 800 frosh already being pegged for Olympic Team. Lay off him and let him be a freshman.

— Daniel Huling (@DanielHuling) January 19, 2016

If his steeple fitness is ahead of his predictive powers, Huling will likely make his first Olympic team. So it’s down to Cabral, Leslie, Bayer, Kebenei, and Cowart for the third spot.

Tale of The Tilastopaja

Donn Cabral: 8:13 PB/8:29 SB
SBs in PB season: 3:41/13:28/29:22
SBs this season: 3:44/13:29/29:40
Made two teams this Olympic cycle

Cory Leslie: 8:19 PB/SB
SBs in PB/this season: 3:37/13:38
Fourth in 2014

Andy Bayer: 8:18 PB/8:24 SB
SBs in PB season: 3:36/7:48
SBs this season: 3:41/7:42

Stanley Kebenei: 8:18 PB/SB
SBs in PB/this season: 4:05y

Donnie Cowart: 8:23 PB/SB
SBs in PB/this season: 3:43/13:48
Fourth in 2012, fifth in 2013, fifth in 2014

Damn. You couldn't go wrong picking any of them—Cabral has the fastest PB but the worst SB, Leslie has the best 1500m PB, Bayer's 1500m PB is almost as fast as Leslie's but his steeple PB is faster, Kebenei has the best SB, and Cowart was in the top five at three U.S championships in a row before last year.

I'm taking Cabral for that third spot, but any order of finish of these dudes in places 3-7 wouldn't surprise me. Though he's barely broken 8:30 this year, Cabral has run about as well as he did in the season when he ran his best steeple. And Cabral at his best is significantly better than the other four.

FINAL: 5:23 PT Friday, July 8

FloTrack Projections:

1. Evan Jager
2. Dan Huling
3. Donn Cabral
4. Cory Leslie
5. Andy Bayer
6. Stanley Kebenei
7. Mason Ferlic
8. Hilary Bor

My picks:

1. Evan Jager
2. Dan Huling
3. Donn Cabral
4. Cory Leslie
5. Stanley Kebenei
6. Andy Bayer
7. Donnie Cowart
8. Hilary Bor

2016 US leaders:

1. Evan Jager, 8:15.26
2. Stanley Kebenei, 8:18.52
3. Dan Huling, 8:18.58
4. Cory Leslie, 8:19.12
5. Donnie Cowart, 8:23.38
6. Andy Bayer, 8:24.37
7. Travis Mahoney, 8:25.44
8. Hilary Bor, 8:27.01

Last three Team USAs:

2015 worlds: Jager, Cabral, Huling
2013 worlds: Jager, Huling, De’Sean Turner
2012 Olympics: Jager, Cabral, Kyle Alcorn