2016 Olympic GamesAug 2, 2016 by Dennis Young
Olympic Preview: Men's Mid-Distance
Olympic Preview: Men's Mid-Distance
The Olympics start next week, with the Olympic track program starting August 12. The men's 800m final is Monday, August 15 at 9:25 PM Eastern, then men's 30
The Olympics start next week, with the Olympic track program starting August 12. The men's 800m final is Monday, August 15 at 9:25 PM Eastern, then men's 3000m steeplechase final is Wednesday, August 17 at 10:50 AM Eastern, and the men's 1500m final is Saturday, August 20 at 8:00 PM Eastern. Below are our previews for those three events.
Last three podiums
2015 Worlds: David Rudisha, Adam Kszczot, Amel Tuka
2013 Worlds: Mo Aman, Nick Symmonds, Ayanleh Souleiman
2012 Olympics: David Rudisha, Nijel Amos, Timothy Kitum
(Two Kenyans and Donavan Brazier have times No. 2-4 in the world, but did not make the team)
How are America's chances?
In the last 18 years, Americans not named Nick Symmonds have made exactly two global finals. Americans not named Symmonds or Duane Solomon have made zero. It would be a historic accomplishment for Murphy, Berian, or Jock just to make the final, so winning is a huge leap from there.
But why not? Boris Berian won World Indoors, beat a monstrous field at the Prefontaine Classic, and no one in the world has run faster than his 1:43.34 PR this year. At Pre, he beat the 2015 world silver and bronze medalists, the 2013 gold medalist, and the 2012 bronze medalist. He also beat Ferguson Rotich there; Rotich beat Rudisha at the Kenyan Olympic Trials. And if we're tossing around the transitive property anyway, Murphy easily beat Berian at the Trials.
There's no obvious candidate to replace him as the favorite, though. Kipketer won his last two races in Monaco and at the Kenyan Trials, but has the 10th-fastest qualifying time in the field, and was eighth in his only Worlds appearance last year. Rotich won Stockholm and Shanghai, but lost to Kipketer at the Kenyan Trials, as well as Pierre Ambrose-Bosse and Brandon McBride in London.
What about the non-Kenyans? The six fastest non-Kenyan men in the qualifying period are Amel Tuka, Nijel Amos, Ayanleh Souleiman, Berian, Adam Kszczot, and Mo Aman.
Tuka has done very little since winning world bronze last year--he hasn't broken 1:45 in 2016, and was sixth at Pre and fourth at Euros.
Souleiman is a curious case. He has not done well at his last two world championship races--he DNFed at World Outdoors last year and finished last in the final at World Indoors this year. In addition, he only raced a handful of times this year: two 800m races in Spain, and one 1500m in Heusden. Souleiman is coached by Jama Aden, who was arrested for doping in Spain in June and is not attending the Olympics because the Spanish government took his passport. But his last two outdoor races--a 1:44 800m in Spain and a 3:31 1500m in Belgium--were dominant. Don't count Souleiman out.
After a world-leading 2014 and 2015--he ran 1:42 in Monaco both years--2012 silver medalist Amos has looked ordinary in 2016. He was fourth and sixth in his two Diamond League races and has a season's best of 1:44.66.
Kszczot, second at Worlds last year, is peaking perfectly. He was fourth at Pre in May, third in Stockholm in June, second in Monaco in July, and ran his season's best in Monaco.
Aman mostly stayed out of the global action this year. He was third and seventh at Pre and Stockholm in his two major international races of 2016. In the run up to his world title in 2013, he won four Diamond League races and took second in another.
It's also worth looking at Pierre-Ambroise Bosse, Taoufik Makhloufi, NCAA runner-up Brandon McBride, and U.S. champion Clayton Murphy. The first three have times Nos. 3-5 in 2016 behind Rudisha and Kipketer.
Makhloufi used to be coached by Aden, and is also entered in the 1500m. He's the ultimate wild card here after his infamous withdrawal from the 800m in the 2012.
Bosse ran out of his mind with a 1:43.88 win in London. That was just 12 days after finishing only fifth at Europeans.
McBride doesn't have any stinkers on his resume this season. He was fourth at Monaco behind Kipketer, Kszczot, and Marcin Lewandowski, second in London behind Bosse, and second at NCAAs behind Brazier. He won every other 800m he entered in 2016.
Murphy's competitive record is even better: He's undefeated in the 800m and 1500m this outdoor season. But he has not competed outside of the U.S. once this year.
Here are my finalists: the three Kenyans, Berian, Murphy, Kszczot, Souleiman, and Bosse. The medals will go Kipketer, gold; Rudisha, silver; Berian, bronze. Kipketer has beaten the best the world has to offer in his last two races, Rudisha is a 1:40 guy rounding into shape, and Berian has only lost to Murphy this year.
But this race is a real crapshoot.
1500m
Last three podiums
2015 Worlds: Asbel Kiprop, Elijah Manangoi, Abdalaati Iguider
2013 Worlds: Asbel Kiprop, Matt Centrowitz, Johan Cronje
2012 Olympics: Taoufik Makhloufi, Leo Manzano, Abdalaati Iguider
Team Kenya
Asbel Kiprop, Ronald Kwemoi, Elijah Manangoi
How are America's chances?
The odds aren't great--most sports books have Centro's chances between 20 and 25 to 1. But Centro won World Indoors in March, and was second in the world three years ago. The man who is theoretically a massive favorite--Asbel Kiprop--finished dead last in the 2012 Olympic final and just took fifth in Monaco. It's not crazy to imagine Centro winning this race.
Who will win or medal?
There are seven contenders: Centrowitz, the Kenyan team, Ayanleh Souleiman of Djibouti, Taoufik Makhloufi of Algeria, and Abdalaati Iguider of Morocco.
Before Monaco, Kiprop seemed like a lock for gold, but Kwemoi, Manangoi, Makhloufi, and Iguider beat him there. I'm still picking Kiprop for gold--Monaco was his first 1500m/mile loss of 2016. In 2015, he lost at Pre before going on to win Worlds; in 2013, he lost at Pre and the Kenyan Trials before going on to win Worlds; in 2011, he lost six times before going on to Worlds.
Kiprop has never finished as poorly as sixth in a 1500/mile in the build-up to a win at major championships. Each of his worse-than-third-place finishes in 2011, 2013, and 2015 in the 1500m/mile came after the world championships. In other words, every year that Kiprop won Worlds, he finished top-three in all of his previous 1500m/mile races. He could lose to any of the four men who beat him in Monaco.
Manangoi has been first, second, or third in every 1500m he's run in 2015 and 2016 except for a sixth-place finish in Monaco last year, while this is Kwemoi's first global outdoor championship, so I'm picking Manangoi for silver. Kwemoi is faster, younger and beat an Olympic-final-quality field in Monaco, but has never run rounds at this level. Kwemoi will probably make this take look bad in Rio.
Bronze is a crapshoot. Iguider knows how to run for secondary medals, with bronzes at the most recent Olympics and world championships. Makhloufi is the defending Olympic champ. Kwemoi beat all these guys in Monaco. So let's just take the American, Centrowitz, for bronze.
Of note: According to road-to-rio.com, Mahkloufi and Souleiman are entered in the 800m, and Iguider is entered in the 5000m.
Brimin Kipruto, Conseslus Kipruto and Ezekiel Kemboi finish comfortably at the Kenyan Trials. Photo/Stafford Ondego/www.sportpicha.com
Last three podiums
2015 worlds: Ezekiel Kemboi, Conseslus Kipruto, Brimin Kipruto
2013 worlds: Ezekiel Kemboi, Conseslus Kipruto, Mahiedine Benabbad
2012 Olympics: Ezekiel Kemboi, Mahiedine Benabbad, Abel Mutai
Team Kenya
Conseslus Kipruto, Ezekiel Kemboi, Brimin Kipruto
(Kenyans not on the Olympic team have spots Nos. 2-5 and 7-8 on the world list)
How are America's chances?
Can an American win? Hell no. Can an American medal? Yes, but it will be very hard.
Non-Kenyans won five medals in the last seven Olympics. It's so hard for a non-Kenyan man to earn an Olympic medal in the steeplechase that Oregon Track Club Elite coach Mark Rowland is one of the last five men to do it--and he did it in Seoul 28 years ago. But American record-holder Evan Jager might be able to break the streak.
Kemboi, also for sure. He doesn't do the regular season now--he was outside of the top 10 in each his last five Diamond League races dating back to 2015. But he's won the last four world championships and is the defending Olympic champ. He's the king until dethroned, and it seems like he cruised to qualification at the Kenyan Trials.
Brimin Kipruto will probably complete a Kenyan sweep. He's done little outside of the world championships and its qualifiers the last two years; in fact, he hasn't finished better than fourth except for the Kenyan Trials and the world championships! He was third at the Kenyan Trials and world championships last year, and won the Kenyan Trials this year.
The man with a shot at breaking up the Kenyan hegemony is Jager, who opted for a Kenyan-esque 2016. After running 8:00 and competing in two Diamond Leagues before Worlds last year, Jager steepled only three times this entire outdoor season: an 8:15 win at Hoka, an 8:33 prelim at the Trials, and an 8:22 win in the Trials final. There's nothing to indicate Jager has improved enough to take down the Kenyans, so I'm picking a repeat of 2015: Kemboi, gold; C. Kipruto, silver; B. Kipruto, bronze.
The lack of hype around Jager--compared to last year--is probably what his coach, Jerry Schumacher, wants. An American man hasn't medaled in this event since Brian Diemer in 1984. Jager has a great chance at ending that drought, despite a very quiet 2016.
800m
Last three podiums
2015 Worlds: David Rudisha, Adam Kszczot, Amel Tuka2013 Worlds: Mo Aman, Nick Symmonds, Ayanleh Souleiman
2012 Olympics: David Rudisha, Nijel Amos, Timothy Kitum
Team USA with 2016 season bests
Clayton Murphy (1:44.76), Boris Berian (1:44.20), Charles Jock (1:45.48)Team Kenya
Alfred Kipketer, Ferguson Rotich, David Rudisha2016 world leaders
David Rudisha (1:43.35), Alfred Kipketer (1:43.73), Pierre-Ambroise Bosse (1:43.88)(Two Kenyans and Donavan Brazier have times No. 2-4 in the world, but did not make the team)
How are America's chances?
In the last 18 years, Americans not named Nick Symmonds have made exactly two global finals. Americans not named Symmonds or Duane Solomon have made zero. It would be a historic accomplishment for Murphy, Berian, or Jock just to make the final, so winning is a huge leap from there.Who will win or medal?
Rudisha is the world record-holder, defending world and Olympic champ, and 2016 world leader. He's also been an afterthought against the three best fields he faced this year in the Kenyan Olympic Trials (third place) and the Diamond League meets in Stockholm (fourth) and Shanghai (fifth). In 2011 and 2012, he was undefeated heading into his wins at Worlds and the Olympics. Last year, he was second in his last three 800m races before winning Worlds. So this is his worst precursor ever.There's no obvious candidate to replace him as the favorite, though. Kipketer won his last two races in Monaco and at the Kenyan Trials, but has the 10th-fastest qualifying time in the field, and was eighth in his only Worlds appearance last year. Rotich won Stockholm and Shanghai, but lost to Kipketer at the Kenyan Trials, as well as Pierre Ambrose-Bosse and Brandon McBride in London.
What about the non-Kenyans? The six fastest non-Kenyan men in the qualifying period are Amel Tuka, Nijel Amos, Ayanleh Souleiman, Berian, Adam Kszczot, and Mo Aman.
Tuka has done very little since winning world bronze last year--he hasn't broken 1:45 in 2016, and was sixth at Pre and fourth at Euros.
Souleiman is a curious case. He has not done well at his last two world championship races--he DNFed at World Outdoors last year and finished last in the final at World Indoors this year. In addition, he only raced a handful of times this year: two 800m races in Spain, and one 1500m in Heusden. Souleiman is coached by Jama Aden, who was arrested for doping in Spain in June and is not attending the Olympics because the Spanish government took his passport. But his last two outdoor races--a 1:44 800m in Spain and a 3:31 1500m in Belgium--were dominant. Don't count Souleiman out.
After a world-leading 2014 and 2015--he ran 1:42 in Monaco both years--2012 silver medalist Amos has looked ordinary in 2016. He was fourth and sixth in his two Diamond League races and has a season's best of 1:44.66.
Kszczot, second at Worlds last year, is peaking perfectly. He was fourth at Pre in May, third in Stockholm in June, second in Monaco in July, and ran his season's best in Monaco.
Aman mostly stayed out of the global action this year. He was third and seventh at Pre and Stockholm in his two major international races of 2016. In the run up to his world title in 2013, he won four Diamond League races and took second in another.
It's also worth looking at Pierre-Ambroise Bosse, Taoufik Makhloufi, NCAA runner-up Brandon McBride, and U.S. champion Clayton Murphy. The first three have times Nos. 3-5 in 2016 behind Rudisha and Kipketer.
Makhloufi used to be coached by Aden, and is also entered in the 1500m. He's the ultimate wild card here after his infamous withdrawal from the 800m in the 2012.
Bosse ran out of his mind with a 1:43.88 win in London. That was just 12 days after finishing only fifth at Europeans.
McBride doesn't have any stinkers on his resume this season. He was fourth at Monaco behind Kipketer, Kszczot, and Marcin Lewandowski, second in London behind Bosse, and second at NCAAs behind Brazier. He won every other 800m he entered in 2016.
Murphy's competitive record is even better: He's undefeated in the 800m and 1500m this outdoor season. But he has not competed outside of the U.S. once this year.
Here are my finalists: the three Kenyans, Berian, Murphy, Kszczot, Souleiman, and Bosse. The medals will go Kipketer, gold; Rudisha, silver; Berian, bronze. Kipketer has beaten the best the world has to offer in his last two races, Rudisha is a 1:40 guy rounding into shape, and Berian has only lost to Murphy this year.
But this race is a real crapshoot.
1500m
Last three podiums
2015 Worlds: Asbel Kiprop, Elijah Manangoi, Abdalaati Iguider2013 Worlds: Asbel Kiprop, Matt Centrowitz, Johan Cronje
2012 Olympics: Taoufik Makhloufi, Leo Manzano, Abdalaati Iguider
Team USA with 2016 season bests
Matt Centrowitz (3:34.09), Robby Andrews (3:34.88), Ben Blankenship (3:35.02)Team Kenya
Asbel Kiprop, Ronald Kwemoi, Elijah Manangoi2016 world leaders
Asbel Kiprop (3:29.33), Ronald Kwemoi (3:30.49), Elijah Manangoi (3:31.19)How are America's chances?
The odds aren't great--most sports books have Centro's chances between 20 and 25 to 1. But Centro won World Indoors in March, and was second in the world three years ago. The man who is theoretically a massive favorite--Asbel Kiprop--finished dead last in the 2012 Olympic final and just took fifth in Monaco. It's not crazy to imagine Centro winning this race.Who will win or medal?
There are seven contenders: Centrowitz, the Kenyan team, Ayanleh Souleiman of Djibouti, Taoufik Makhloufi of Algeria, and Abdalaati Iguider of Morocco. Before Monaco, Kiprop seemed like a lock for gold, but Kwemoi, Manangoi, Makhloufi, and Iguider beat him there. I'm still picking Kiprop for gold--Monaco was his first 1500m/mile loss of 2016. In 2015, he lost at Pre before going on to win Worlds; in 2013, he lost at Pre and the Kenyan Trials before going on to win Worlds; in 2011, he lost six times before going on to Worlds.
Kiprop has never finished as poorly as sixth in a 1500/mile in the build-up to a win at major championships. Each of his worse-than-third-place finishes in 2011, 2013, and 2015 in the 1500m/mile came after the world championships. In other words, every year that Kiprop won Worlds, he finished top-three in all of his previous 1500m/mile races. He could lose to any of the four men who beat him in Monaco.
Manangoi has been first, second, or third in every 1500m he's run in 2015 and 2016 except for a sixth-place finish in Monaco last year, while this is Kwemoi's first global outdoor championship, so I'm picking Manangoi for silver. Kwemoi is faster, younger and beat an Olympic-final-quality field in Monaco, but has never run rounds at this level. Kwemoi will probably make this take look bad in Rio.
Bronze is a crapshoot. Iguider knows how to run for secondary medals, with bronzes at the most recent Olympics and world championships. Makhloufi is the defending Olympic champ. Kwemoi beat all these guys in Monaco. So let's just take the American, Centrowitz, for bronze.
Of note: According to road-to-rio.com, Mahkloufi and Souleiman are entered in the 800m, and Iguider is entered in the 5000m.
Brimin Kipruto, Conseslus Kipruto and Ezekiel Kemboi finish comfortably at the Kenyan Trials. Photo/Stafford Ondego/www.sportpicha.com
3000m steeplechase
Last three podiums
2015 worlds: Ezekiel Kemboi, Conseslus Kipruto, Brimin Kipruto2013 worlds: Ezekiel Kemboi, Conseslus Kipruto, Mahiedine Benabbad
2012 Olympics: Ezekiel Kemboi, Mahiedine Benabbad, Abel Mutai
Team USA with 2016 season bests
Evan Jager (8:15.26), Donn Cabral (8:20.72), Hillary Bor (8:24.10)Team Kenya
Conseslus Kipruto, Ezekiel Kemboi, Brimin Kipruto2016 world leaders
Conseslus Kipruto (Kenya, 8:00.12), John Koech (Bahrain, 8:09.62), Ezekiel Kemboi (Kenya, 8:14.19)(Kenyans not on the Olympic team have spots Nos. 2-5 and 7-8 on the world list)
How are America's chances?
Can an American win? Hell no. Can an American medal? Yes, but it will be very hard. Non-Kenyans won five medals in the last seven Olympics. It's so hard for a non-Kenyan man to earn an Olympic medal in the steeplechase that Oregon Track Club Elite coach Mark Rowland is one of the last five men to do it--and he did it in Seoul 28 years ago. But American record-holder Evan Jager might be able to break the streak.
Who will win or medal?
Conseslus Kipruto, for sure. He is 5-0 in Diamond Leagues this year--in his first four, he went 8:05, 8:02, 8:01, and 8:00, in that order. His last two races were a runner-up finish at the Kenyan Trials and an 8:08 win in Monaco.Kemboi, also for sure. He doesn't do the regular season now--he was outside of the top 10 in each his last five Diamond League races dating back to 2015. But he's won the last four world championships and is the defending Olympic champ. He's the king until dethroned, and it seems like he cruised to qualification at the Kenyan Trials.
Brimin Kipruto will probably complete a Kenyan sweep. He's done little outside of the world championships and its qualifiers the last two years; in fact, he hasn't finished better than fourth except for the Kenyan Trials and the world championships! He was third at the Kenyan Trials and world championships last year, and won the Kenyan Trials this year.
The man with a shot at breaking up the Kenyan hegemony is Jager, who opted for a Kenyan-esque 2016. After running 8:00 and competing in two Diamond Leagues before Worlds last year, Jager steepled only three times this entire outdoor season: an 8:15 win at Hoka, an 8:33 prelim at the Trials, and an 8:22 win in the Trials final. There's nothing to indicate Jager has improved enough to take down the Kenyans, so I'm picking a repeat of 2015: Kemboi, gold; C. Kipruto, silver; B. Kipruto, bronze.
The lack of hype around Jager--compared to last year--is probably what his coach, Jerry Schumacher, wants. An American man hasn't medaled in this event since Brian Diemer in 1984. Jager has a great chance at ending that drought, despite a very quiet 2016.