Why Alabama Is Still Ranked 11th In The NCAA
Why Alabama Is Still Ranked 11th In The NCAA
Why Alabama Is Still 11th In The NCAA despite their 8th place finish at Notre Dame.
This past weekend, the Alabama men debuted their full squad at the Joe Piane Notre Dame XC Invitational in Indiana, finishing eighth overall with 200 team points. At first glance, one might assume the Crimson Tide fell short of their 11th FloXC pre-season ranking after losing to five unranked teams.
However, Alabama actually did more to validate their pre-season ranking, and here's why.
SEE UPDATED FloXC RANKINGS HERE
1) Alabama's top three proved they are as good as we think they are.
The Kenyan trio went 1-2-3 at Notre Dame with convincing wins over All-American Joe Klecker (Colorado) and 13:34 5K runner Mike Tate (Southern Utah).
Deservingly, all three men are now ranked in the FloXC Top 25:
No. 4 Gilbert Kigen
No. 7 Vincent Kiprop
No. 19 Alfred Chelanga
2) Alabama still looks to be able to advance out of the South Regional.
Alabama competes in one of the weaker regions, and looks to only have one true contender in Middle Tennessee State. Other potential top-two contenders are Ole Miss and Florida State. Alabama beat Florida State convincingly at Notre Dame, and Ole Miss -- who finished second at the Cowboy Jamboree -- appears to be in rebuilding mode after graduating multiple seniors last year.
Let's take a look at last year's South Regional results with redshirts/graduates removed and Alabama's trio added:
1) 49 points Middle Tennessee State
1) 74 points Alabama
Obviously, results change year to year, but with the addition of a potential 1-2-3 finish in 2017 the Crimson Tide are formidable contenders for a top-two regional team finish.
3) Under the NCAA scoring system, the Crimson Tide are still pretty good in a worst-case scenario.
Based on our FloXC rankings, we believe Alabama's top three could score 30 points. Even if Alabama's fourth and fifth man finished second to last and last overall, they would add 214 and 215 points respectively bringing their team total to 459 points, which would have placed a team 18th overall at last year's NCAA championships. So worst-case scenario Alabama is a top-20 team purely based on their first three runners.
4) Alabama's fourth and fifth men might be good enough.
Now obviously it's hard to imagine Alabama's fourth and fifth finishing dead last at NCAAs, so how many points could one expect from these two? One fun way to imagine their potential is to see how similar athletes did at Notre Dame vs NCAAs last year.
Now obviously this comparison can be wildly inaccurate, but it does show that Alabama's fourth/fifth men have at least the potential to score around 300 points between the two of them. And if that happens, Alabama could be looking at 330 team points, which would have been good for 11th last year.
So there you have it, the results may look weird, but Alabama has the ingredients to be a top-15 team despite their eighth-place finish at Notre Dame.
However, Alabama actually did more to validate their pre-season ranking, and here's why.
SEE UPDATED FloXC RANKINGS HERE
1) Alabama's top three proved they are as good as we think they are.
The Kenyan trio went 1-2-3 at Notre Dame with convincing wins over All-American Joe Klecker (Colorado) and 13:34 5K runner Mike Tate (Southern Utah).
Deservingly, all three men are now ranked in the FloXC Top 25:
No. 4 Gilbert Kigen
No. 7 Vincent Kiprop
No. 19 Alfred Chelanga
2) Alabama still looks to be able to advance out of the South Regional.
Alabama competes in one of the weaker regions, and looks to only have one true contender in Middle Tennessee State. Other potential top-two contenders are Ole Miss and Florida State. Alabama beat Florida State convincingly at Notre Dame, and Ole Miss -- who finished second at the Cowboy Jamboree -- appears to be in rebuilding mode after graduating multiple seniors last year.
Let's take a look at last year's South Regional results with redshirts/graduates removed and Alabama's trio added:
| Pl | Athlete | YR | School |
| 1 | Kigen, Gilbert | JR | Alabama |
| 2 | Kiprop, Vincent | JR | Alabama |
| 3 | Chelanga, Alfred | JR | Alabama |
| 4 | Choge, Jacob | SO | Mid. Tenn. State |
| 5 | Chemadi, Kigen | JR | Mid. Tenn. State |
| 6 | Guillorel, Arse'ne | SR | Samford |
| 7 | Tobin, Sean | SR | Mississippi |
| 8 | Boit, Gilbert | SO | Tennessee Tech |
| 9 | Kamau, Bryan | SR | Georgia |
| 10 | Long, Zach | JR | Tennessee |
| 11 | Morken, Nick | JR | North Florida |
| 12 | Cheruiyot, Amos | SR | Mid. Tenn. State |
| 13 | Laari, Sampson | SR | Mid. Tenn. State |
| 14 | Navarro, Daniel | SR | Georgia |
| 15 | Cheruiyot, Geoffry | SR | Mid. Tenn. State |
| 16 | Pectol, Wesley | SR | Auburn |
| 17 | Sprague, Austin | SR | Georgia |
| 18 | Cross, Steven | SO | Florida State |
| 19 | Bryant, Ben | JR | Samford |
| 20 | Wyss, Kevin | SR | Auburn |
| 21 | Kelley, Bryce | SR | Florida State |
| 22 | Hall, Michael | SR | Florida State |
| 23 | Solomon, Nahom | SR | Georgia Tech |
| 24 | Pittman, Frank | SO | Georgia Tech |
| 25 | Stahl, Tyler | SR | North Florida |
| 26 | Grady, Alex | SR | Georgia Tech |
| 27 | Westog, Eric | JR | Georgia |
| 28 | Robertson, Mark | SR | Mississippi |
| 29 | Munns, Matthew | JR | Georgia Tech |
| 30 | Short, Josh | JR | Alabama |
| 31 | Caldwell, Taylor | JR | Mississippi |
| 32 | Dean, Dillon | SO | Samford |
| 33 | Sanders, Mitchell | JR | Georgia Tech |
| 34 | Grossman, Sean | SR | Miami |
| 35 | Leber, Brent | JR | Lipscomb |
| 36 | Hasty, Gavin | JR | Chattanooga |
| 37 | Edwards, Matthew | SR | Belmont |
| 38 | Prizy, Evan | SR | Alabama |
| 39 | Shaw, Tanner | JR | Georgia Tech |
| 40 | Richardson, Paul | SR | Samford |
Top Two Projected Scores:
1) 49 points Middle Tennessee State
1) 74 points Alabama
Obviously, results change year to year, but with the addition of a potential 1-2-3 finish in 2017 the Crimson Tide are formidable contenders for a top-two regional team finish.
3) Under the NCAA scoring system, the Crimson Tide are still pretty good in a worst-case scenario.
Based on our FloXC rankings, we believe Alabama's top three could score 30 points. Even if Alabama's fourth and fifth man finished second to last and last overall, they would add 214 and 215 points respectively bringing their team total to 459 points, which would have placed a team 18th overall at last year's NCAA championships. So worst-case scenario Alabama is a top-20 team purely based on their first three runners.
4) Alabama's fourth and fifth men might be good enough.
Now obviously it's hard to imagine Alabama's fourth and fifth finishing dead last at NCAAs, so how many points could one expect from these two? One fun way to imagine their potential is to see how similar athletes did at Notre Dame vs NCAAs last year.
| 2016 ND Finish | 2016 NCAA Score | |
| Patrick Sheehan (NC State) | 73rd | 104 |
| John Lawson (California) | 130th | 166 |
| 2017 ND Finish | 2017 NCAA Score | |
| Josh Short (Alabama) | 75th | TBD |
| Garrett Bull (Alabama) | 131st | TBD |
Now obviously this comparison can be wildly inaccurate, but it does show that Alabama's fourth/fifth men have at least the potential to score around 300 points between the two of them. And if that happens, Alabama could be looking at 330 team points, which would have been good for 11th last year.
So there you have it, the results may look weird, but Alabama has the ingredients to be a top-15 team despite their eighth-place finish at Notre Dame.