FloTrack's 2020 Bold Predictions

Here are some bold predictions for the new year in the running world.

Dec 31, 2019 by Kevin Sully

On the eve of a new decade, the FloTrack team weighs in with their bold predictions for 2020.

Lincoln

Michael Norman beats Wayde van Niekerk and breaks 400m world record in Tokyo

If both men are healthy in 2020, the 400m has two candidates to dip under the 43.03 record: Norman, who ran 43.45 in his debut last season, and Van Niekerk, the record holder himself.

Eliud Kipchoge will be beaten at the London Marathon

Kenenisa Bekele's 2:01:41 in Berlin was an unexpected twist on a marathon career that had previously been quite rocky. Falling just two seconds short of Kipchoge's record proved that the 37-year-old-- arguably the greatest track distance runner ever-- has the tools to beat the GOAT in 2020.

Shelby Houlihan will win 1500m gold in Tokyo

Sifan Hassan will have a new coaching situation in 2020, a switch that shouldn't be overlooked as she tries to repeat the magic of her 2019 season. That uncertainty leaves the door open for someone like Shelby Houlihan to usurp the 1500m mantle in Tokyo. Houlihan smashed the U.S. record in 2019 with her 3:54.99 in finishing fourth at the World Championships.

Kevin

Both high hurdle world records will be broken

When it comes to hurdle world records, much of the attention has (rightly) been on the low hurdles. Dalilah Muhammad broke the mark twice last year. The men didn't quite make history, but the trio of Karsten Warholm, Rai Benjamin and Abderrahman Samba are likely to get there at some point in the new year.

But the high hurdle marks are also vulnerable. A deep group of women could challenge Keni Harrison's mark of 12.20 (including Keni Harrison herself). For the men, Grant Holloway and Daniel Roberts are poised to shave time off their personal bests in their first full seasons as pros. Sergey Shubenkov, Orlando Ortega and Omar McLeod could also threated Aries Merritt's mark of 12.80 from 2012.

The US men will break the world record in the 4x100m

If 2019 was about exorcising the demons of baton drops passed, then 2020 will be the year the US men perfect their handoffs and take Jamaica's world record of 36.84 from 2012 off the top of the all-time list. That squad had an in-prime Usain Bolt and Yohan Blake and solid role players in Michael Frater and Nesta Carter. But the US's 37.10 from Doha proved they can run under 37 seconds. Noah Lyles and Christian Coleman will be faster in 2020 than in 2019. Justin Gatlin and Mike Rodgers are still capable of running solid legs. And there's a deep bench behind them should there be any hiccups.

The US women will medal in every mid-distance/distance event at the Olympics

With the current crop of athletes, it's easy to see medals for the United States in the 800m, 1500m, steeplechase and marathon--where it gets tricky is the 5000m and 10,000m. The 5000m has been particularly tough sledding for the Americans. They've never medalled in a global outdoor championship in the event (though they did get one medal in the 3000m, before the 5000m was added to the program).

Who is going to be the woman that breaks through for the United States? I'm not entirely sure. Kenya and Ethiopia are particularly daunting in the 5000m and if Sifan Hassan opts to run the event, then there's another medal off the table. But global championships are characterized by surprises and if they can get medals in the 10,000m, then there's no reason they eventually can't get one in the 5000m.