In the latest FloTrack Rankings, Fred Kerley occupies the top spot in the 100m and is listed fourth in the 200m. Those have been Kerley’s events of choice the last past two seasons after beginning his career focused on the 400m. 

But what if Kerley doesn’t have any intention of pursuing the traditional 100m/200m double at the World Championships this year?

On Friday, Kerley posted a video on Twitter of him running a 300m in practice.

Second half of the season is here what double I’m going for 😜😜 pic.twitter.com/Wtpfn52IIb

— Fred Kerley (@fkerley99) June 16, 2023

He followed that up with a post on Sunday of him running 44.09 in the 400m while at Texas A&M.

Happy Sunday pic.twitter.com/7Cf1BCt40D

— Fred Kerley (@fkerley99) June 18, 2023

This could all just be fun on social media, but there are plenty of reasons why a 100m/400m double makes more sense for Kerley than 100m/200m. 

Any conversation about doubles has to start with the schedule. The schedule for the upcoming World Championships in Budapest does make the 100m/400m logistically possible. The first round of the 100m is on August 19th. 

The next morning, Kerley would have the first round of the 400m, followed by the 100m semis and finals that evening. After that, Kerley would have a full day off before the 400m semifinals and then another day off before the 400m final. It’s not a perfect set-up, but he will likely expend very little energy in that 400m first round and would have six hours to recover before the 100m semifinal. 

Again….ideal, no. Doable for someone like Kerley? I think so. 

If the goal is two individual gold medals, let’s compare the 200m to 400m right now. In short, there’s just way more certainty in the men’s 200m than the men’s 400m. Noah Lyles, Erriyon Knighton and Kenny Bednarek comprise an imposing top three for the U.S. 

Internationally, Udodi Onwuzurike (Nigeria), James Dadzie (Ghana) and Letsile Tebogo (Botswana) have all run under 19.90 this year. 

Contrast that with the wide-open men’s 400m. 

Last year’s world champion Michael Norman is planning on pursuing shorter distances this year and there’s been no clear favorite for gold develop. The only man who broke 44 seconds this year, Muzala Samukonga, just lost to Wayde Van Niekerk at the Oslo Diamond League meet. 

From a numbers perspective, Kerley's 400m personal best of 43.64 puts him in a better position than his 19.76 in the 200m, though that 400m time comes from 2019. He did run one 400m this year, an extremely comfortable 44.65 in Sydney, Australia in March. 

Kerley could certainly make the U.S. team in either the 200m or the 400m (remember, Noah Lyles has a bye in the 200m and Norman has one in the 400m if he wants to go back to the quarter). So the question is really, what gives him the best shot at gold once he gets to Budapest? If he can back to sub-44-second form, I think it's the 400m.

Finally, what if this isn’t a question of two events, but four? 

Kerley running the 400m would open him up for selection to the 4x400m. Assuming he would get picked for the 4x100m, he could enter the meet with a chance for an incredible quadruple. 

All of this is of course predicated on Kerley’s continued success in the 100m. We are a couple of months into the season and Kerley has established himself as the man to beat. He doesn’t have the fastest time of the year, but he hasn’t taken a loss and has run against good fields in three Diamond Leagues (two in the 100m and one in the 200m). 

Only one person in history has pulled off the 100m/400m double at a World Championships or Olympics. In the first-ever Olympics in 1896, American Thomas Burke won both events. Since then, it's rarely been attempted over a career, let alone in the same meet.

Kerley already made history once by switching events in 2021. He quelled any second-guessing over the next two seasons when he crossed the line first in Eugene to lead a U.S. sweep in the 100m. Kerley’s versatility is well-known and he has a penchant for taking big swings. 

This would be an even greater challenge, but after last season there will be much fewer doubts that he has the audacity to attempt it or the ability to pull it off.