Day 3 Picks
Day 3 Picks
The panelists:
Paul Michel, Flotrack
Kevin Liao, Spikeduppsychedup.com
Kevin Sully, houseofrun.com
Danny Mackey, Flotrack
Jake Gardner, Flotrack
Ray Machuca, Flocasts production
Cate Westenhover, Flotrack (and Baylor Bear)
Ryan Craven, Flotrack
Our panelists put in their votes for who would win each track final before the meet started. After prelims, many picks are now out (so if you see an athlete picked by one of the voters who is not in the final, it's because the picks were made before prelims...)
Ok, with only the Women's 10k on Wednesday and the Men's 10k rained out last night, we've still had only 1 scored race. But now the action really heats up, with a total of 11 track finals Friday. Let the games begin.
Today's Finals:
Men's 400 Hurdles
Paul M : Jeshua Anderson (Washington State)
Jeshua has the fastest time in the country, and he did it on a big stage (Pac-10 Champs) over the #4 and #5 runners in the country in Reggie Wyatt of USC and Amaechi Morton of Stanford. He won by over a second and nearly broke 48 (48.13). He won in '08 and '09, and he will be back with a vengeance after losing to Johnny Dutch in last year's NCAA final. This could be the easiest of the picks...
Cate W : JA
Fastest seed. Has looked untouchable of late.
Jake G : JA
Fastest qualifying time. Second at the National meet last year. It is the last meet of his collegiate career. All signs point to him running hard, and running well.
Kevin L : JA
Anderson had his streak of NCAA championships broken last year but Johnny Dutch, but he has been back with vengeance and is clearly the top collegiate 400 meter hurdler.
Kevin S : JA
2010 runner-up Anderson has a season best that is almost a full second better than everyone else in the field. I like him in this race---big.
Danny M : JA
I actually just moved to Seattle last week and Washington State is close enough for me to give him my allegiance. Anderson won this event back in 2008 and 2009, but not in 2010. I doubt he will let that happen again this year. Anderson has looked great all year and I think he will pull off his 3rd title. Side note: listen to his interviews on Flotrack, you will become a fan of this guy immediately.
Ray M : JA
There is nothing else to do in Pullman, Washington but train for the hurdles. And that's exactly what he's been doing apparently.
Ryan C : JA
Hard not to go with the top seed here (especially when you're as poorly versed in the hurdles as I am.) Jeshua will have a few sub 50 guys on his heels as he attempts to rectify last year's 2nd place finish.
Women's 400 Hurdles
Paul M : Turquoise Thompson (UCLA)
Turquoise has been so consistent this year, has been a stellar athlete since high school, and with a name like Turquoise, you know she must be comfortable with the spotlight. I hate the color turquoise though. Maybe she'll change my perception with a win here.
Cate W: TT
Fastest seed time AND an awesome name.
Jake G : Takecia Jameson (Miami)
3rd last year, Jameson and her teammate Ti’erra Brown have continued there success from the meet last year, but I’ll take Jameson in this one.
Kevin L : TT
The former California prep star has struggled through sickle cell issues her freshman year but has bounced back to emerge as a top 400 meter hurdler.
Kevin S : TT
Never overlook alliterative names. I will leave it at that.
Danny M : TT
She just put on a clinic at the PAC 10s. She has great upswing too, running a 53.10 in the open 400 back in high school. I think she PRs again while getting the win.
My grandmother was a huge fan of turquoise jewelry. HUGE fan. This pick is...what she would have wanted.
Ryan C : TT
The UCLA soph has been on fire all season and heading into NCAAs she shows no signs of stopping. The real question is can she dip under 56 seconds?
Men's 100
Many of us had Jeff Demps of Florida going into the meet, but after his failure to make finals we had to make some adjustments...
Paul M : Ngonidzashe Makusha (Florida State)
I admittedly had Demps winning this year (didn't most of us?) but because he is now out, we had a chance to make some revisions. Therefore, I'm going Makusha from FSU. He has been a seminal figure in the sprint scene all year (get it?) and he looked terrific in the prelims. With rain postponing events yesterday and probably affecting events today and tomorrow, it could be anyone's race. I liked Mitchell from FSU as well, but he has more on his plate (hopefully the long jump doesn't take it out of Makusha too much). Phiri could be the favorite because of his great start, but Makusha is my guy here.
Cate W : Ngonidzashe Makusha
While his time is #2 in the nation (barely), Jeff Demps' #1 was run at his home meet. That probably gave him some extra mojo. Makusha's time from the ACC champs was solid.
Jake G : Maurice Mitchell (Florida State)
I could have gone either Florida State runner, but I like Mitchell's 200 sprint strength. With rounds and multiple events for most of the top runners, I think that will be the difference.
Kevin L : Geral Phiri
I like Mitchell's chances in the 200, but Phiri has proven to us all year that he is a top dog. His start is great and he performs terrifically well under pressure. A&M is going to need big points out of him to contend for the team title, so expect a big performance. Should be a great race between Phiri, Makusha and Mitchell.
Kevin S : Gerald Phiri
Danny M : Gerald Phiri Texas A&M
Even though Phiri ran his PR 2 months ago and the Florida State guys (Makusha and Mitchell) looked rock solid in the prelims, I think he will steal the show tonight. For all I know the entire state of Florida might have bad luck because I have no clue how Demps is going to be watching this race from the sidelines. Phiri has been close to the gold in the past (2nd in the 60m and, 4th in the 100m last year) and he has a great start. It really depends on if he can get a jump on the Florida State guys' because their top end speed will be a little quicker than Phiri in the last 30m. I met Phiri last year for a work trip. He is a super nice guy. So I want him to win as well, I'm not just picking him to prove once and for all that I know more about track than Paul and Fenton, especially Paul. Paul will probably still pick Demps because he likes football and wants him to play for the Broncos..
Ray M : Ngonidzashe Makusha
That is the coolest first name I have ever seen. That's all I need.
Ryan C : Maurice Mitchell
Normally I'd give the nod to a senior, but I've got a lotta faith in Mitchell. However he will have to take down in-state rival Jeff Demps
Women's 100
Paul M : Lakya Brookins (South Carolina)
It's tough going against Jeneba Tarmoh of Texas A&M and Semoy Hackett of LSU, but I like the fact that Brookins ran her best time of the season at SEC's, nearly posting a sub-11 (11.02) to come within shouting distance of Hackett and Tarmoh's 11 points at Texas Relays. It should be fun, as any of these women (let alone other contenders like Kimberlyn Duncan of LSU) could come away with a win.
Cate W : Tiffany Townsend (Baylor)
She's got four events this weekend, but she's used to performing at this level. She's got 13 All-American honors and will be looking to do it big in her last NCAA championships.
Jake G : Jeneba Tarmoh (Texas A&M)
Third at last years event, I believe she has the talent and fitness level to take home the title this year.
Kevin L : Jeneba Tarmoh
Tarmoh went to my high school rival Mt. Pleasant High in San Jose, Calif., so I'm a bit biased on this choice. However, she has consistently proven to be one of the fastest out of the blocks.
Kevin S : Semoy Hackett (LSU)
This is essentially a toss-up between Texas A & M’s Tarmoh and Hackett of LSU. Both won their conference championship meets and both have wind-aided season bests under 11 seconds. I went with Hackett, but I’m definitely not confident about it.
Danny M : Jeneba Tarmoh
World Junior Champ back in 2008. Got 3rd here last year after doubling in the 200. The meet always has an athlete that dominates a few events and I think it will be Jeneba because she will win the 200.
Ray M : Semoy Hackett
I grew up in Baton Rouge...gotta rep the bayou here.
Ryan C : ?
The entire field is within .4 of one another, your guess is as good as mine.
Men's 800
Paul M : Robby Andrews (Virginia)
This should be GREAT!!! Does 1:45 mean nothing these days? I remember a time when 1:46 would put you up in the mix to win Nats. Now a 1:46 barely gets you a mention! Anyhow, I like Robby in a kick over Primm, Jock and Ryan Martin. However, if he lets frontrunner Charles Jock of UC Irvine get too far away, it will be tough to reel him back in. What a race this will be...
Cate W : Cory Primm (UCLA)
His 1:44 puts him head and shoulders above the rest of this stacked field.
Jake G : Elijah Greer (Oregon)
By far the hardest race to pick, but I have to go with the runner I have watched the most and have the most confidence in. He looked so commanding in his prelim, and talking to him after the race, Greer seemed poised and ready to go. An Oregon runner won last year and I think he can bring it home again.
Kevin L : Robby Andrews
Guys like Jock, Primm, and Greer have run fast in 2011, but Robby Andrews remains the master tactician with the unmatched kick.
Kevin S : Robby Andrews
This is a very difficult race to predict. Jock and Primm have put up impressive times against really stellar fields this year, but Andrews is flying below the radar and should be the freshest of the group.
Danny M : Elijah Greer
I met Elijah randomly for 2 seconds the night of the PRE classic. He was out front of his place cooking hot dogs in a bonfire. Guys like that should win 800 titles.
Ray M : Charles Jock
Jock straps together a comfortable win.
Ryan C : Sam Borchers
In such a loaded 800 field, my chips are down on the wildcard of all wildcards...Borchers. This kid could either pull off a huge upset win or finish DFL. In my eyes, anywhere inbetween just wouldn't be Sam. Let's hope the senior finishes out his PSU career on a strong note!
Women's 800
Paul M : Lea Wallace (Sacramento State)
A tough pick for me between Wallace and Kesselring for the win, but my gut says Wallace. I liked her demeanor after our Workout Wednesday with her, and I like her 800/1500 versatility. (Although I sure hope the prelim 1500 doesn't do her in here.)
I watched her run down LSU's Latavia Thomas in the 4x800 at Texas Relays last year. She looked super tough, capable of anything. She's an easy pick for this one, AND with her 2:02 seed she leads the field.
Jake G : Anne Kesselring (Oregon)
The sophomore from Oregon ran shoulder to shoulder with teammate Laura Roesler. But with national experience, making the final last year and placing 6th, Ithink she will win.
Kevin L : Anne Kesselring
Kesselring has proven to be able to run fast in a time-trial type race while also kick well in tactical affairs like the NCAA Indoor mile.
Kevin S : Lea Wallace
Wallace cruised through her conference championships and the qualifying rounds of the NCAA meet, and her season best comes from a meet known as the Sacramento State MONDO Mid-Major Challenge way back in April. I think she has much more to show and will get the win over a pair of Oregon Ducks, Anna Kesselring and Laura Roesler.
Danny M : Lea Wallace
I met her coaches way back in February during the Flotrack Invite up in Seattle. Up to that point I had never heard of Lea, and felt like an idiot because I should have known how fast she was in the 800. I would be an idiot after watching her Workout Wednesday session to not pick her for the win.
Ray M : Anne Kesselring
Anne will be Lord of the (Kessel)Rings after her 800 here. (I know, that was bad.)
Ryan C : Stephanie Brown
The top seeded Arkansas soph will have some stiff competition from underclassmen Kesserling and Roessler and seniors Grace and Wallace. Will experience pay dividends, or is this the coming out party for some our nations top talent?
Men's Steeple
Paul M : Justin Tyner (Air Force)
Tough not to go defending champion Matt Hughes of Louisville here, but Tyner has been too consistently good to bet against him here. His 8:37 at Payton Jordan is right up there with the best in the country, as he finished just behind Steve Finley of Oregon. The steeple (as it always seems to be) is wide open.
Cate W: Matt Hughes (Louisville)
Very consistent steepler. And he won last year. Hughes in a close finish over the field.
Jake G : Matt Hughes (Louisville)
I like his consistency and the fact that he won last year. It really could be anyone's race, however. Tyner has looked great as well.
Kevin L : Matt Hughes
So many men have run in the same time range this season, but Hughes is the one with championship experience, which is why he will repeat his national title.
Kevin S : Matt Hughes
Defending champion Hughes ran his best time of the season in the preliminary round, which means he should be at his best on race day. For some reason, picking favorites in the steeplechase is usually a good bet.
Danny M : De'Sean Turner
De'Sean is somewhat of a dark horse going into the meet. The reasons I think he will win this weekend are because he keeps gradually running faster this year in the steeplechase, and he has run some impressive 1200 legs on the IU DMR. That kick will come in handy.
Ray M : Matt Hughes
You know what, I just hope no one gets hurt.
Ryan C : FINLEY ATTACK!!!
Women's 400
Paul M : Jessica Beard (Texas A&M)
Although Dixon just surprised Beard at Big-12's, I see Beard responding in a big way at Nationals. She's been through the rounds before and she should use her experience for the win.
Cate W: Diamond Dixon (Kansas)
One of the top-ranked women, won her heat at regionals and she's a freshman! How could you not want her to win?
Jake G : Jessica Beard
Looked too commanding at the West Regional not to be a favorite. Second last year only to a senior, Beard is the favorite going into this event.
Kevin L : Jessica Beard
After four years at A&M, Beard has been through it all on the collegiate level and is well prepped to take home her first outdoor championship.
Kevin S : Jessica Beard
Beard’s Aggies will be relying on her for team points and she should be motivated as Kansas’ Diamond Dixon beat her 3 weeks ago at the Big-12 championship meet.
Danny M : Diamond Dixon
I watched Diamond win the Kansas Relays this year and have been impressed by her since. She might be only a freshman and some would say the pressure could be the difference at NCAAs, but I think Diamond is just too good.
Ray M : Jessica Beard
Diamonds are nice, but I've had a beard for the last 2 years and it's been great.
Ryan C : Jessica Beard
No question here. The top seed who stole the show at this year's indoor meet looks to close out her collegiate career with yet another national title. Here's hoping she does.
Men's 400
Paul M : Demetrius Pinder (Texas A&M)
This was a tough call, with how deep the 400 field is this year. I came to the conclusion that I had to go A&M with how consistently good they have been since indoors. But it was a tough call between Pinder and Tabarie Henry. I'm going Pinder after his win at Big 12's. Watch out for freshman Mike Berry of Oregon.
Cate W: Marcus Boyd (Baylor)
Boyd is so competitive. Put him on the track, it doesn't matter who with, and he will go 100% for the win.
Jake G : Kirani James (Alabama)
A sophomore this year, the defending NCAA champion had the fastest time in the prelims. It is really hard not to pick him to win. He has commanded the 400m national spotlight.
Kevin L : Kirani James
James has raced sparingly this spring in hopes of running at the World Championships. Although Texas A&M's duo of Henry and Pinder have run similar times to James, he has yet to go all-out this season.
Kevin S : Kirani James
James had some bad luck in this years NCAA Indoor Championships when he got clipped and fell. Fortunately for him, the outdoor 400 is run in lanes and he will defend his outdoor title over a pair of Aggies, Tarbarie Henry and Demetrius Pinder.
Danny M : Kirani James
This will be close. 5 guys have run within .2 of each other and most looked fine at regionals. Kirani is a little tough to choose because his best time of the year came way back in February indoors. But James was the first athlete ever to win double gold at the World Youth Championships which means he can compete in high stress situations and he ran his outdoor PR just 3 weeks ago.
Ray M : Kirani James
Everyone else seemed to be going with Kirani. They must know something...
Ryan C : Thomas Murdaugh (Ohio State)
This is probably a bit of a longshot, but I had to show some love to the lone Big Ten runner in the field.
Women's 50000
Paul M : Jordan Hasay (Oregon)
After Hasay's indoor dominance, it would be foolish to bet against her here. I like Infeld in an upset bid, but I'm trying to win a competition here, people. I don't think the 1500 prelim will really affect her.
Cate W : Jordan Hasay (Oregon)
I tried to reason why someone else would have a shot here, but Hasay is just too good. She also brings in the top season best time: 15:37 at Mt. Sac. I wish Jessica Pixler (15:25 at Stanford) was in this race, because it would be cool to see both of them competing. Unfortunately she hasn't competed since April...
Jake G : Emily MacLeod (Michigan St.)
6th last year in this race with only one runner above her returning, the senior from Michigan St. has the second fastest preliminary time in the field and with no clear favorite like Lisa Koll from last year, Emily has strong chance at the title.
Kevin L : Jordan Hasay
With Jessica Pixler out, Hasay's seasonal best is nine second better than the competition. Watch out for Georgetown's Emily Infeld, typically a 1500 meter runner who has decided for focus on the 5k.
Kevin S : Jordan Hasay
I know Hasay will at least win one of the two she is entered in, so I figured I should hedge my bets and just pick her twice.
Danny M : Jordan Hasay
I wish Pixler was healthy because I think this would be her race to win. Hasay will be coming back from the 1500 so unless a woman really presses the pace early (which rarely happens in championship races) I think Hasay just sits and waits to kick.
Ray M : Emily Infeld (Georgetown)
Georgetown is a historic University. While that's really neither here nor there, it can't hurt.
Ryan C : Megan Goethals (Washington)
A bit of an outside shot, Goethals has made a splash on the collegiate scene this season. She might be a year or two away from a championship, but this could be a big weekend for the Washington freshman.