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Day 4 Picks

Day 4 Picks

Jun 10, 2011 by Paul From Flotrack
Day 4 Picks


The panelists:

Paul Michel, Flotrack
Kevin Liao, Spikeduppsychedup.com
Kevin Sully, houseofrun.com
Danny Mackey, Flotrack
Jake Gardner, Flotrack
Ray Machuca, Flocasts production
Cate Westenhover, Flotrack (and Baylor Bear)
Ryan Craven, Flotrack

Our panelists put in their votes for who would win each track final before the meet started. After prelims, many picks are now out (so if you see an athlete picked by one of the voters who is not in the final, it's because the picks were made before prelims...)

Today's Finals:
Men's 4x100
 
Paul M : Texas A&M
Tough pick here between A&M and Florida (or even FSU or LSU), but with an all-star team of Tran Howell, Gerald Phiri, Demetrius Pinder and Prezel Hardy Jr., you can't go wrong. However, with Demps not making the final in the 100, you have to think he is going to blaze this 4x100 anchor leg. Can Prezel Hardy Jr. hold him off? It will probably take a 38 low to win.

Cate W : Baylor
The Bears pulled out an amazing qualifying race even after a key runner, Woodrow Randall, was injured.

Jake G :  Florida St.
Second last year by only .03 seconds and holding the fastest preliminary time by
a comfortable margin, they are my favorite going Nationals.

Kevin L : Florida
The 4x1 is all about handoffs and you never really know who might botch an exchange.  I'll flip a coin and take #1 ranked Florida behind the anchor of Jeff Demps.

Kevin S : Florida
After being beaten soundly by LSU at the Penn Relays in April, the Gators rebounded nicely and ran a season best 38.53 at the SEC Championships.  A match-up of Florida’s Demps and Florida State’s Makusha at anchor could be thrilling. 

Danny M : Florida
Demps versus Hardy from Texas A&M in the anchor legs will be something to watch.  I think if Phiri runs the 2nd leg for A&M they have the lead coming into the homestretch.  This is where we get to see Demps walk someone down.

Ray M : Texas
Gotta rep the local boys down here in Austin a little bit. 

Ryan C : Florida
Jeff Demps. Nuff said, but in case it wasn't...Terrell Wilks, Christian Taylor, and newcomer Eddie Lovett. BAM!


Women's 4x100

Paul M : Texas A&M
The 4x100 is always a difficult one to predict, as handoffs can go awry and strange things always seem to happen. but A&M has the most talent (minimally over LSU) and should win if everything goes right. 

Cate W : Baylor
This team has both Tiffany Townsend and Tiffani McReynolds (see 100, 200 and 100H), so we already know it's loaded. It also has two Brittanys (Bruce and Carr) who are both All-Americans too.

Jake G : Texas A&M
Tied for the fastest time going into the meet with LSU. Winning by a comfortable
margin last year, the A&M sprinting core is so hard to pick against…and its
getting incredibly repetitive.

Kevin L : Texas A&M
If they can get the stick around, A&M has the top sprinters in the nation and should take this victory.

Kevin S : Texas A & M
Another sprint event that features LSU and Texas A & M among the favorites.  Texas A & M is the four-time defending champions and beat the Tigers at the Penn Relays earlier this season. 

Danny M : Texas A&M
Same situation as the men's 4x4.  Too many athletes that are fast.  Their top time is well ahead of LSU so unless Texas A&M drops the baton, even on a average day I see them winning.

Ray M : Texas A&M
Like I said yesterday, I love beards.

Ryan C : Texas A&M
This should be a great showdown between LSU, UCF and A+M, but I have to place my bets on Jessica Beard and crew. If it comes down to the closer there's no way its not going to be Beard breaking the tape. 


Women's 1500

Paul M : Sheila Reid (Villanova)
I am banking on Reid being fired up and motivated after Hasay beat her up pretty bad at indoor nationals. Both ladies will be in the mix with 200 to go (and maybe Lea Wallace?) and I think Reid will have just enough to edge out Hasay. I wanted to go Wallace, but I have her winning the 8 and I don't think she will quite be strong enough to win both.

Cate W : Jordan Hasay (Oregon)
I always knew she was talented, but after her triple at indoor nationals, where she came back and ran the 3k just because she wanted to beat Sheila Reid, I learned how competitive she was too.

Jake G : Jordan Hasay 
The only freshman in the NCAA 1500m Final last year, Jordan placed third. This
year, coming in with another successful season under her belt, she is thirsty for
that national title.

Kevin L : Jordan Hasay
The Hasay-Reid rivalry from indoors continues, but this meet will truly begin the era of Hasay's dominance of the NCAA scene.  She appears unbeatable with the fastest PR and newfound closing speed.

Kevin S : Jordan Hasay
Appears to be a 3 person race with Oregon’s Hasay, Lea Wallace of Sacramento State and Shelia Reid of Villanova.  Hasay has the top time coming in, a 4:10.28 at the Cardinal Invitational, and more importantly, the ability to win off of a fast or slow pace. 

Danny M : Jordan Hasay
For some reason I do not feel confident about this pick.  No reason why.  Hasay has the fastest time in the country and won her first titles indoors.  The women's 1500 is interesting.  Wallace is coming back so I'd be surprised if she won.  Maybe Shelia Reid wins?  Maybe that's is why I am not confident.  I'm sticking with Hasay though.

Ray M : Lea Wallace (Sacramento State)
After watching her Workout Wednesday, I am sold.

Ryan C : Sheila Reid
The upperclassmen will look to exact her revenge on Oregon's Jordan Hasay after a few battles that have seen the young Hasay reach the tape first. Reid has no easy task ahead of her, but I can't wait to see if she's up for the challenge. 


Men's 1500

Paul M : Matt Centrowitz (Oregon)
We had a debate about this on a run the other day, and it was tough to come to a conclusion of any sort. But Centro has just looked to good to me to not go with the Duck. He nearly won last year and he has been consistent this outdoor season, something that teammate AJ Acosta has not been able to do. It would not surprise at all, however, to see a darkhorse like Gibney of Villanova or Duncan Phillips of Arkansas take it. Like I've said time and time again, I went to Colorado State…so I can't go Batty from BYU here. I just can't make myself do it.

Cate W : Miles Batty (BYU)
Going with the favorite again. He's got the #1 ranked time and he got the mile title indoors.

Jake G : Matthew Centrowitz
A part of the 1-2-3 sweep last year, but the 3rd place finisher for Oregon wants a
title of his own. He made a 3:42 look incredibly easy. I think this is Centro’s year.

Kevin L : Dorian Ulrey
Too many good names in this one with Centrowitz, Batty, Ulrey and Acosta.  In the end, I see Ulrey getting that long-awaited 1500 meter outdoor title with the very same finishing speed that earned him a spot on the 2009 World team.

Kevin S : Matt Centrowitz
Hard to pick against Miles Batty, especially after he absolutely decimated the NCAA Indoor Championships, but I wonder if he has anything left this season.  Ulrey and Centrowitz both won their conference meets and have similar season bests.  I will go with Centrowitz to avenge the Ducks horrible indoor performance and improve upon his 3rd place finish last year.

Danny M : Matt Centrowitz
Miles Batty looked so good indoors didn't he?  And he ran 3:36 at Mt Sac, I'm stupid to pick against him.  Though Cento ran a 3:36 before he got injured last year and has a great kick.  I remember watching him race his freshman year when he ran a 4:00 indoors at UW and lost, he was pissed.  A 17 year kid who was red-shirting barely lost to a few professionals and looked like he was ready to punch down a door.  Cento is a competitor. 

Ray M : Miles Batty
Liked his indoor performances at nationals. His speed and strength combination is batty.

Ryan C : Dorian Ulrey
If the race were in Eugene it'd be hard not to pick Centro or Acosta, but given that Ulrey will be back in the state of Iowa, I predict he'll feel right at home as he charges ahead for the win. 


Women's 200

Paul M : Kimberlyn Duncan (LSU)
Duncan won indoor and she has the fastest time of the season with her 22.18 (although it was wind-aided) from LSU's home meet in late-April. Tarmoh of Texas A&M has the fastest time of the year, so maybe I should be going that route. 

Cate W : Tiffany Townsend (Baylor)
I know I'm biased but she really can do it all...

Jake G : Jeneba Tarmoh (Texas A&M)
Second only to A&M’s Porscha Lucas last year, the new junior standout will bring
home one, if not both of the sprit titles.

Kevin L : Kimberyn Duncan
Duncan has phenomenal top-end speed and may even have a chance to sniff the 22 second barrier with favorable wind conditions.

Kevin S : Kimberlyn Duncan
It was difficult deciding between Duncan, her teammate Hackett, and Texas A & M’s Jeneba Tarmoh, but I will stick with the reigning indoor champion to score some important points for the Tigers in this event. 

Danny M : Jeneba Tarmoh
The LSU ladies (especially Duncan) will not make it easy for Tarmoh. 

Ray M : Kimberly Duncan
The LSU Tiger who won indoors wins again.

Ryan C : Candyce McGrone
The former FSU star turned Sooner ran a big sub 23 PR at the regional meet, but she'll have to take down Texas A+M's Jeneba Tarmoh if she wants the W. 


Men's 200

Paul M : Rakieem Salaam (Oklahoma)
Salaam looked great at Big 12's, running the fastest time in the country and nearly breaking 20 (20.05). I also was a huge CU Buffs fan grown up, and their running back, Raashan Salaam, won the Heisman Trophy in 1994. What can I say, I'm nostalgic. Salaam in a lean over Maurice Mitchell.

Cate W : Mitchell Maurice (Florida State)
Last year's top returner (third). He'll be able to pull it out.

Jake G : Charles Silmon (TCU)
He has the third fastest time out of all the qualifying times, He looked incredibly fit
at West Regional, and I want to pick a young gun to take it home.

Kevin L : Maurice Mitchell
Florida State's rich history of 200 meter stars including Walter Dix and Charles Clark will continue with Mitchell claiming the title.

Kevin S : Mookie Salaam
Salaam ran his season best of 20.05 three weeks ago and had the best time in the qualifying round. 

Danny M : Maurice Mitchell
Maurice has run a 10.03 and 20.19, he's versatile and has great top end speed.  He also looked good in regionals.  His obvious challenge will come Rakieem Salaam, who is getting close to breaking 20 flat.  I still go with Mitchell, he has Bob Bramen (remember Walter Dix?) in his corner which can only help at the end of the season.

Ray M : Charles Silmon (TCU)
I'm staying in Texas for this pick. Charles is also a distinguished name. 

Ryan C : Rakieem Salaam
Sure, he's the top seed and the indoor 200 champ, but more than anything I'm picking "Mookie" simply on the basis that I love the nickname "Mookie"


Women's Steeplechase

Paul M : Emma Coburn (Colorado)
Coburn hands down. She is beautiful over the barriers, she is strong as heck (she grew up at 8800 fret elevation!) and she is on a different level than everyone else in the field. Very confident in this pick.

Cate W : Emma Coburn
I didn't even have to look at the start lists to know Coburn was my pick. Like Jenny B before her, she just looks so dang powerful all the way around the track.

Jake G : Emma Coburn
Tough to go with anyone but Emma in this race. She has been solid all year and has had quite the breakout. Will be fun to see if she can run low 9:30's.

Kevin L : Emma Coburn
It's not often that a collegiate can get the 'A' standard in the steeple, but Coburn has continued the tradition of Colorado excellence in the event and should easily win the NCAA title.

Kevin S : Emma Coburn
A pretty solid lock as Coburn’s personal best is more than 12 seconds clear of any other competitor.

Danny M : Emma Coburn
I feel confident about this pick.  Emma worked Sara Hall at Payton Jordan, who now has run a 9:39. I would like to see someone challenge Emma so she can run in the 9:20s.  Rebeka Stowe might be that athlete because she is gritty and my girlfriend's running cousin (look at what Rebeka did in her conference meet).

Ray M : Emma Coburn
Emma is the class of this field. Even a layman like myself can see that.

Ryan C : Emma Coburn
When it comes the steeple its hard to look away from CU. Not only do the Buffs usually get one or two into the finals but they tend to do some big things in the race as well. Coburn will look to continue Colorado's already great tradition. 


Women's 100 Hurdles

Paul M : Nia Ali (USC)
Ali has been steadily improving since focusing on the 100 hurdles. She seems to be on the up and up and should excel next year as a pro. Tiffani McReynolds has been great, but she is only a freshman. Have to give the advantage to the senior here.

Cate W : Tiffani McReynolds (Baylor)
Of all my partial-to-Baylor picks, this is my least biased. This freshman (!) has had a phenomenal season of school records, Big 12 championships (indoor 60H, outdoor 100H) and even an NCAA runner-up (indoor 60H). She's on a roll and I can't wait to see her win it all this weekend! Plus I sat next to her in psychology last semester. She was cool.

Jake G : Ti’erra Brown (Miami)
The Miami senior placed second at Nationals last year behind Queen Harrison
of Texas A&M. Running 13.05 for 6th fastest time in the prelims, Brown will be
gunning for that national title.

Kevin L : Nia Ali
The former multi-eventer at Tennessee has found her niche in the high hurdles at USC.  Look out for her postcollegiately as she appears to have much room to approve.

Kevin S : Nia Ali
Ali and Baylor freshman, Tiffani McReynolds, have identical wind-aided season bests from the same meet (12.74, Texas Relays).  Ali, a senior, ran under 13 seconds at the Pac-10 meet as well as at the qualifying rounds in Eugene.  I give her the slight advantage because of experience. 

Danny M : Christina Manning (Ohio State)
The Big Ten athlete of the year should win an NCAA title.  Last year Manning got beat up pretty bad running a 13:43 at NCAA but she is a different athlete this year.

Ray M : Nia Ali
Great last name when trying to become a champion.

Ryan C : Leticia Wright
While many are on the Nia Ali bandwagon, I'm thinking that Wright could pull off a decent upset. Either way both these seniors should be there battling it out in the last few meters. 


Men's 110 Hurdles

Paul M : Barrett Nugent (LSU)
We were there to watch Nugent blaze a 13.19 at Texas Relays, and I've been sold ever since. It will be tough to replicate that at Nationals, with rain expected, but I'm still going Bayou all the way here. Will he be able to take down Riley? We'll see...

Cate W : Barrett Nugent (LSU)
...top-ranked time, solid race at regionals

Jake G : Oscar Spurlock (USC)
I have to take a chance with a few picks in here. The senior from USC placed 5th last year and while his time is not incredibly impressive coming out of the regional meets, I believe he has the talent to make it happen.

Kevin L : Andrew Riley (Illinois)
Jamaica-native Riley has the championship experience and starting-block quickness with his win at NCAA Indoors in the 60 meter hurdles.

Kevin S :  Andrew Riley
Riley is 2010 champion as well as the 2011 indoor champion in the 60 meter version of this event.  LSU’s from Nugent and Texas Tech’s Osaghae should make this one of the most competitive races of the entire meet. 

Danny M : Andrew Riley
I taught over at Parkland College a few years ago, which is down the street from U of I.  And I grew up in Chicago, and I'm a Cubs fan...I will pick anyone close to that zip code because I'm loyal.  It does help that Riley is the defending champ though.

Ray M : Barrett Nugent
Barrett "Don't call me Ted" Nugent for the win.

Ryan C : Andrew Riley
Gotta go with the defending champ and can't say no to an Illini. 


Men's 5000

Paul M : Thomas Farrell (OK State)
It was tough not to go Heath in a kick here, but…
Farrell trains in Stillwater, much hotter than Palo Alto. Farrell will be fresh, as Heath will have a 10k in his legs. Lalang from Arizona is probably the favorite here (or Chelanga), but I'll take the closing speed of Farrell in a tight, tactical, slow race. He has come on strong and should be beast in a year or two.

Cate W : Sam Chelanga (Liberty)
My bet is a clear win from this collegiate record-holder in the 10k and NCAA champ (xc).

Jake G : Sam Chelanga
My bet is a clear win from this collegiate record-holder in the 10k and NCAA champ (xc).

Kevin L : Elliott Heath (Stanford)
The field must attempt to run a fast pace to sting the epic kick of Elliott Heath, but with many of the top contenders doubling back from the 10k, none can take it out hard enough.

Kevin S : Lawi Lalang (Arizona)
This race is being run at 1:21 pm local time on Saturday.  If the weather cooperates this is a non-issue, but if it gets too hot, look for this race to get really tactical.  Heath has the most vaunted kick, but I like Lalang in an upset.

Danny M : Thomas Farrell
I know.  Heath can run a 19.9 the last 200 of every race.  This time Farrell gets a little too much of gap on Health and he runs out of real estate.  Farrell is a 1500 guy at heart so his last 200 will be good enough. 

Ray M : Thomas Farrell
A feral organism is one that has changed from being domesticated to being wild or untamed. Watch out….

Ryan C : Thomas Farrell
One of the more unsung heroes of OK State is Farrel and he's simply been on a roll lately. I'm not sure who could have predicted he'd have such a breakout season, but I'll be the first to predict that either he wins or plays a major part in setting things up for whoever does. 


Women's 4x400

Paul M : Texas A&M
With Beard on the anchor, I have to go A&M. Even if she is well back going into the final exchange, she is the equalizer that no other school possesses. A&M in a close one over LSU.

Cate W : Baylor
It may be unheard of for any school to win all four relay titles, but the Bears aren't just anyone.

Jake G : LSU
With two new runners that were not on their 4x400 team last year that placed 3rd at nationals, I think LSU will have a breakout race and take the relay race.

Kevin L : Texas A&M
A&M has the top talent, but many of the Aggies will have had long weekends and could be fatigued from multiple championship races.  Watch out for Arkansas with anchor Shelise Williams and defending champion Oregon.

Kevin S : Texas A&M
Aggies enter the meet with the top mark this season.  The only concern is that three of the four-team members are also running individual events and could be a bit worn out by this event.  More than likely, this race will decide the team competition between the Aggies, LSU and Oregon. 

Danny M : LSU
Texas A&M will probably win this too, I just don't want to see them win every damn race.  Jessica Beard from Texas A&M can probably run a 49 sec split if she needs too.  So I'm just going LSU mostly out of spite and they ran their best race last week, unlike most 4x4 teams.

Ray M : LSU
Don't mess with Texas (A&M)? LSU is going to do just that.

Ryan C : Penn State. 
Penn State's got some studs, maybe not enough to pull it off but I like their odds. They're a big team with a great tendancy to show up when it counts. If someone falters, look for PSU to take advantage of others mistakes. 


Men's 4x400

Paul M : Texas A&M
I know, I know…A&M on basically all the sprints. But can you blame me? They have been nothing short dominant this entire outdoor season. Every time there has been a challenger, they have met the challenge with a W. With Preble missing finals in the 800 and Tabarie Henry missing out in the 400, look for them to unleash some anger in the 4x400. If no one in the field breaks 3, I will be pretty surprised, especially with how fast prelims in the 400 went.

Cate W : Texas A & M
Aggies enter the meet with the top mark this season.  The only concern is that three of the four-team members are also running individual events and could be a bit worn out by this event.  More than likely, this race will decide the team competition between the Aggies, LSU and Oregon. 

Jake G : Texas A&M
They are the defending champions. They are too good. They are going to win.

Kevin L : Texas A&M
The big question isn't if the Aggies will win, but whether they will break the ever elusive 3 minute barrier.

Kevin S : Texas A & M
Defending champion Texas A & M will threaten the sub 3 minute mark as they look to claim the team title in this event.  They feature 3 of the top 9 entrants in the open 400 competition, as well as tremendous depth, which means that even an injury is unlikely to derail them.t

Danny M : Texas A&M
Baylor ran really fast 2 months ago and Clyde Hart wrote the book on "How To Run A 400" but Texas A&M has too many guys that are too fast at running around a track one time.  Pat Henry knows what he is doing too, so don't expect Texas A&M to give the race away.  A team will have to break 3:00 to beat them Saturday.

Ray M : LSU
I'll pick LSU all day. I'm not afraid.

Ryan C : Iowa
Gotta give a tip of the hat to home state favorites the Hawkeyes. They've got a lot of momentum coming off of Big Tens, maybe not enough to pull off a win but hopefully enough for a solid showing. 

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