The Complete History of Fayetteville-Manlius
The Complete History of Fayetteville-Manlius
The Fayetteville-Manlius dynasty is going for an unprecedented seventh straight NXN team title. Since 2004, FM has dominated cross country in New York and extended their reign to the national scene in 2006.
Some coaches wake up in a cold sweat in the middle of the night after after dreaming about trying to replicate FM’s success. Their training model is the pinnacle of high school distance running.
Earlier this season, we profiled the “Stotan” girls and their training program. Their secret? The Stotan philosophy, good coaching, talented girls, and a culture of success that permeates through the program. Easy, right?
Two years ago, Letsrun.com had a lengthy and in-depth Track Talk with coach Bill Aris. The interview serves as the single comprehensive source of knowledge about the powerhouse from upstate NY. The text and podcast of the interview can be found here.
If you can’t join them, you’ll have the beat them. But how?
There has to be an explanation for why their so darn good without analyzing philosophical statements, quotes from Once a Runner about the secrets of training, looking at their diets, or reading their workout logs.
Maybe the question isn’t “Why are they so good,” but “How are they so good?”
Each cross country team can only field seven runners per race. Those seven runners all start together and at some point, finish the race. Simple as that.
But winning six consecutive NXN isn’t simple. It doesn’t just take years of training or magical workouts, but some sort of environment where four months of hard work can be replicated year after year. Whether it’s a point in time where they finally built a solid foundation or had a eureka moment that lead to some sort of distance running renaissance, something happened in a little town in upstate New York that made FM great.
This idea can be quantified by personal bests in cross country and track. Behind the curtain of that hides the Wizard of FM lies finishing places, track personal bests, and team finishes.
We’ve compiled a complete history of the Fayetteville-Manlius team from 2003 to the present day. The tables below include finishes at the NY Federation Championship, outdoor track and field personal bests leading into that season, and NXN results.
Nearly all of the data was taken from was tullyrunner.com’s track and field database and cross country database.
2003 - The Dark Age(s)
Before the creation of NXN, the final team competition in NY was the NY Federation Championship. In 2003, Fayetteville-Manlius “only” had two runners represent their school at Bowdoin Park.
2003 NY Federation Championships 7 Brittany Crawford SR Fayetteville-Manlius 19:06.0 23 Kristen Taylor SO Fayetteville-Manlius 19:56.5
2004 - The Beginning of the Renaissance
When Bill Aris became FM’s director of both programs in 2004 and brought his son Jon aboard as the assistant coach, everything started to change. This was the start of FM’s dynasty and the end for everyone else in NY (or the nation).
Although FM would send “only” two athletes to the NY Federation Championship, the wheels were in motion. They would use their momentum in this first year to build for next fall.
2004 NY Federation Championships 25 Kristen Taylor JR Fayetteville-Manlius 19:14.2 43 Hilary Hooley SO Fayetteville-Manlius 19:40.3
2005
FM didn’t just send two runners to Feds, but an entire team. The FM girls placed 12th overall, which was the last time that any other team would win Feds when they competed.
2005 NY Federation Championships 19 10 Mackenzie Carter 8 Fayetteville-Manlius 19:32.7 51 26 Kristen Taylor SR Fayetteville-Manlius 20:03.0 105 67 Jessica Hauser JR Fayetteville-Manlius 20:55.6 107 69 Alyssa Panozzo SO Fayetteville-Manlius 20:58.3 121 82 Catie Caputo JR Fayetteville-Manlius 21:16.2 160 111 Nicole Page SR Fayetteville-Manlius 21:59.4 177 123 Hilary Hooley JR Fayetteville-Manlius 22:17.7 Track Times Leading into the XC Season Name Grade Meet Distance Place Time Mackenzie Carter 7 Sec 3-St Qual 3000m 5 11:20.61 Kristen Taylor 11 Hamilton Relays 3000m 1 10:24.62 Catie Caputo 10 Constantino Inv 3000m 5 11:19.60 Catie Caputo 10 Sec 3-Class A 1500m 6 5:05.53 Nicole Page 11 Oneida Invite 3000m 3 10:50.75 Hilary Hooley 10 Eddy Meet 3000m 4 10:24.32
2006 - The True Beginning
NTN win with 128 points
Second place was Hilton HS with 178 points
FM completed the double by winning the NY Federation Championships and their first Nike Team Nationals (now NXN) title. There would be no looking back from this point on for the “Stotans.”
2006 NY Federation Championships 7 6 Kathryn Buchan SO Fayetteville-Manlius 18:49.3 8 7 Mackenzie Carter FR Fayetteville-Manlius 18:49.9 47 28 Jessica Hauser SR Fayetteville-Manlius 19:57.4 48 29 Molly Malone FR Fayetteville-Manlius 19:59.8 55 33 Hillary Hooley SR Fayetteville-Manlius 20:13.0 58 36 Courtney Chapman 8 Fayetteville-Manlius 20:13.5 63 38 Catie Caputo SR Fayetteville-Manlius 20:16.6 2006 NTN Championships 4 Carter, Mackenzie 10 Manlius XC Club 19:33.1 5 Buchan, Kathryn 09 Manlius XC Club 19:35.6 29 Hauser, Jessica 07 Manlius XC Club 20:35.5 44 Hooley, Hilary 07 Manlius XC Club 20:52.4 46 Chapman, Courtney 10 Manlius XC Club 20:53.5 48 Malone, Molly 10 Manlius XC Club 20:56.2 76 Caputo, Catie 07 Manlius XC Club 21:27.4 Track Times Leading into the XC Season Name Grade Meet Distance Place Time Catie Caputo 12 Arcaro Invite 1500m 7 5:11.08 Catie Caputo 12 Constantino Inv 3000m 5 11:19.60 Hilary Hooley 11 Sec 3-Class AA 1500m 4 5:06.06 Hilary Hooley 11 Oneida Invite 3000m 2 10:52.34 Jessica Hauser 11 Oneida Invite 1500m 1 5:01.56 Jessica Hauser 11 Dual Meet 3000m 1 11:23.0 Mackenzie Carter 8 Arcaro Invite 1500m 3 5:04.63 Mackenzie Carter 8 Sec 3-St Qual 3000m 3 10:34.24 Molly Malone 8 Sec 3-Class AA 3000m 8 11:14.19
2007
NTN win with 83 points
Second place was Saugus HS with 171 points
2007 NY Federation Championships 2 1 Courtney Chapman FR Fayetteville-Manlius 18:03.8 4 3 Mackenzie Carter SO Fayetteville-Manlius 18:36.1 6 5 Hannah Luber SO Fayetteville-Manlius 18:44.6 7 6 Molly Malone SO Fayetteville-Manlius 18:46.6 15 11 Jocelyn Richards SR Fayetteville-Manlius 19:02.6 37 22 Kristen Buchan JR Fayetteville-Manlius 19:31.1 46 26 Meaghan Anklin JR Fayetteville-Manlius 19:40.9 2007 NTN Championships 8 Chapman, Courtney 11 Manlius XC Club 19:23.6 9 Luber, Hannah 10 Manlius XC Club 19:25.1 10 Carter, Mackenzie 10 Manlius XC Club 19:30.8 18 Malone, Molly 10 Manlius XC Club 19:47.9 37 Buchan, Kathryn 09 Manlius XC Club 20:15.2 48 Buchan, Kristen 09 Manlius XC Club 20:30.5 49 Richards, Jocelyn 08 Manlius XC Club 20:30.6 Track Times Leading into the XC Season Name Grade Meet Distance Place Time Courtney Chapman 8 OHSL Colon Nat 1500m 3 4:47.91 Courtney Chapman 8 OHSL Colon Nat 3000m 1 10:46.64 Hannah Luber 9 OHSL Col-Amer 3000m 1 10:31.60 Jocelyn Richards 10 Constantino Inv 1500m 1 4:56.78 Jocelyn Richards 10 Grieve Invite 3000m 2 10:52.79 Kathryn Buchan 10 NY State Champ 1500m 1 4:37.62 Kathryn Buchan 10 OHSL Col-Amer 1000m 1 3:03.56 Kathryn Fanning 9 Arcaro Invite 3000m 3 10:56.12 Mackenzie Carter 9 OHSL Colon Nat 2000mSt 1 7:25.40 Mackenzie Carter 9 OHSL Colon Nat 1500m 1 4:44.75 Mackenzie Carter 9 Dual Meet 800m 1 2:22.7 Mackenzie Carter 9 Oneida Invite 3000m 1 10:23.47 Molly Malone 9 OHSL Colon Nat 2000mSt 2 7:26.43 Molly Malone 9 Sec 3-St Qual 800m 1 2:17.24
2008 - No More Feds, Just Nationals
NXN win with
Second place was Saugus HS with 135 points
2008 NXN Championships 7 Chapman, Courtney Manlius XC Club 17:53.0 19 Anklin, Meaghan Manlius XC Club 18:13.7 21 Luber, Hannah Manlius XC Club 18:14.8 24 Carter, Mackenzie Manlius XC Club 18:17.6 63 Malone, Molly Manlius XC Club 18:50.5 115 Buchan, Katheryn Manlius XC Club 19:26.1 122 Chapman, Alexandra Manlius XC Club 19:34.3 Track Times Leading into the XC Season Name Grade Meet Distance Place Time Alexandra Chapman 11 Section 3-Class AA 800m 2 2:21.4 Alexandra Chapman 10 Dual Meet 1500m 1 4:48.4 Courtney Chapman 9 Dual Meet 1500m 1 4:43.0 Courtney Chapman 9 Oneida Invite 3000m 1 9:48.02 Hannah Luber 10 Section 3-Class AA 3000m 1 10:00.60 Hannah Luber 10 Constantino Inv 1500m 2 4:45.02 Kathryn Buchan 11 Section 3-St Qual 3000m 2 10:12.68 Kathryn Buchan 11 NY State Champ 3000m 13 10:12.86 Kathryn Buchan 11 Oneida Invite 1500m 2 4:45.97 Katie Sischo 8 Dual Meet 3000m 3 10:46.7 Katie Sischo 8 Section 3-St Qual 800m R 2:19.0 Kristen Buchan 11 CNYCL American 3000m 2 10:52.92 Kristen Buchan 11 Sec 3-St Qual 1500m 5 4:56.83 Mackenzie Carter 10 Oneida Invite 3000m 2 10:12.59 Mackenzie Carter 10 NY State Champ 1500m 3 4:34.13 Meaghan Anklin 11 Dual Meet 3000m 1 10:53.8 Molly Malone 10 NY State Champ 1500m 5 4:36.92
2009
NXN win with 74 points
Second place was Saratoga HS with 147 points
2009 NXN Championships 21 Katie Sischo 12 Manlius XC Club 18:14.9 24 Molly Malone 10 Manlius XC Club 18:16.9 26 Courtney Chapman 11 Manlius XC Club 18:20.0 28 Jillian Fanning 13 Manlius XC Club 18:23.1 36 McKenzie Carter 10 Manlius XC Club 18:31.3 54 Hannah Luber 10 Manlius XC Club 18:46.4 75 Heather Martin 12 Manlius XC Club 19:04.5 Track Times Leading into the XC Season Name Grade Meet Distance Place Time Courtney Chapman 10 Section 3-StQual 1500m 1 4:37.07 Courtney Chapman 10 Oneida Invite 3000m 1 9:48.84 Hannah Luber 11 Sec 3-Class AA 3000m 2 10:31.29 Hannah Luber 11 Constantino Inv 1500m 2 4:54.11 Heather Martin 9 CNYCL American 400m 3 1:00.14 Katie Sischo 9 CNYCL American 3000m 1 10:36.85 Mackenzie Carter 11 NY States Champ 800m R 2:14.5 Molly Malone 11 Sec 3-Class AA 800m 1 2:09.93 Molly Malone 11 NY States Champ 1500m 4 4:30.70
2010 - The Best Team Performances of All-Time
NXN win with 27 points
Second place was Saratoga with 104 points
If NXN was scored as Fayetteville-Manlius versus everyone else, FM still would have won with 27 points to 30 points. Unbelievable.
2010 NXN Championships 2 Christie Rutledge 12 Manlius XC Club 18:21.4 4 Katie Sischo 12 Manlius XC Club 18:49.7 6 Jillian Fanning 13 Manlius XC Club 18:51.7 16 Heather Martin 12 Manlius XC Club 19:12.2 29 Courtney Chapman 11 Manlius XC Club 19:37.0 96 Emily McGurrin 12 Manlius XC Club 20:39.1 107 Katie Brislin 13 Manlius XC Club 20:46.8 Track Times Leading into the XC Season Name Grade Meet Distance Place Time Christie Rutledge 10 Dual Meet 3000m 1 10:47.0 Christie Rutledge 10 Chittenango Inv 1600m R 05:23.6 Christie Rutledge 10 Dual Meet 1500m 1 05:01.0 Christie Rutledge 10 Constantino Inv 600m 17 01:53.6 Katie Sischo 10 NBN Nationals 800m R 02:11.5 Katie Sischo 10 Oneida Invite 3000m 2 10:02.0 Jillian Fanning 9 NY State Champ 3000m 6 09:47.2 Jillian Fanning 9 CNYCL American 1500m 3 04:42.7 Heather Martin 10 NBN Nationals 400m R 00:57.3 Heather Martin 10 NIN Nationals 800m R 02:18.8 Heather Martin 10 Constantino Inv 1500m 3 04:57.8 Emily McGurrin 10 CNYITA Meet #5 600m 9 01:54.7 Emily McGurrin 10 CNYITA Fr-Soph 1500m 3 05:40.5 Katie Brislin 9 Loucks Games 800m 9 02:16.7 Katie Brislin 9 Great Dane Inv 1500m 5 04:47.9 Katie Brislin 9 Section 3-Class B 3000m 2 11:07.4
2011
NXN win with 60 points
Second place was Saratoga HS with 84 points
2011 NXN Championships 4 Jillian Fanning MANLIUS XC CLUB 17:50 21 Katie Sischo MANLIUS XC CLUB 18:26 25 Katie Brislin MANLIUS XC CLUB 18:30 34 Alana Pearl MANLIUS XC CLUB 18:35 44 Hanna Smith MANLIUS XC CLUB 18:39 45 Jenna Farrell MANLIUS XC CLUB 18:40 81 Annika Avery MANLIUS XC CLUB 19:06 Track Times Leading into the XC Season Name Grade Meet Distance Place Time Jillian Fanning 10 NY State Champ 1500m 11 04:35.1 Jillian Fanning 10 NY State Champ 3000m 3 09:43.2 Katie Sischo 11 Oneida Invite 800m 2 02:17.7 Katie Sischo 11 Sec 3-Class AA 1500m 3 04:42.5 Katie Brislin 10 Sec 3-Class AA 800m 1 02:19.3 Alana Pearl 9 Sec 3-Class AA 2000mSt 1 07:35.5 Alana Pearl 9 Dual Meet 3000m 1 10:53.8 Alana Pearl 9 Oneida Invite 1500m 2 04:55.3 Jenna Farrell 7 Sec 3-Class AA 3000m 5 11:07.1 Jenna Farrell 7 Constantino Inv 1500m 10 05:22.3
2012
2012 NXN NY Regional Championships 8 Katie Brislin SR Manlius XC 18:48.4 9 Alana Pearl JR Manlius XC 18:50.1 10 Annika Avery SO Manlius XC 18:50.2 11 Jillian Fanning SR Manlius XC 18:50.8 20 Mary Barger SO Manlius XC 19:01.6 29 Jenna Farrell FR Manlius XC 19:11.0 41 Michelle Duffy SR Manlius XC 19:30.5 Track Times from Leading into the XC Season Name Grade Meet Distance PlaceTime Katie Brislin 11 NY State Champ 800m R 02:14.5 Katie Brislin 11 Dual Meet 1500m 2 04:56.1 Alana Pearl 10 Sec 3-Class AA 1500m 3 04:45.0 Alana Pearl 10 Oneida Invite 3000m 1 10:19.6 Alana Pearl 10 Chittenango Inv 2000mSt 1 07:20.7 Annika Avery 9 Dual Meet 3000m 3 10:54.0 Annika Avery 9 NY State Champ 1500m 25 05:03.7 Jillian Fanning11 Sec 3-Class AA 1500m 1 04:42.4 Jillian Fanning11 Sec 3-Class AA 3000m 2 10:04.1 Mary Barger 9 Sec 3-Class AA 2000mSt 5 07:35.7 Mary Barger 9 Dual Meet 3000m 3 10:50.1 Mary Barger 9 John Arcaro Inv 1500m 1 04:58.9 Jenna Farrell 8 Sec 3-Class AA 3000m 4 10:43.3 Jenna Farrell 8 Dual Meet 1500m 3 05:04.6 Michelle Duffy 11 Sec 3-St Qual 3000m 2 10:03.9 Michelle Duffy 11 Dual Meet 1500m 1 04:50.9
There are two very obvious conclusions to draw from the data. The first is that between when the Jon and Bill Aris took over full-time, FM’s track times greatly improved. Better times correlate to better cross country finishes. Again, simple as that.
When Flotrack visited US#16 Fort Collins High School in Colorado, we talked to coach Chris Suppres. When asked about FM, Suppres said, “There's a reason that Manlius has won every year and that's not necessarily because they're the best team. I think they believe in themselves the most and they have a coaching staff that uses that to their advantage.”
Whether or not they’re the best team, they win every year. Rather than ask why, we examine how they win. Below is scatter plot of results from NXN for FM’s top five at NXN between 2006 and 2011.
One variable that is not taken into account is the condition of the course every year. Portland Meadows is known for the mud, rain, and true cross country conditions. However, these conditions aren’t always conducive to running fast.
The important factor to note is how close together each girl on the team finished in regard to one another. They may have run statistically run faster in 2011, but their performance in 2010 is more dominant.
For the most part, FM will have three runners upfront as opposed to the tradition front-runner that is associated with most successful teams. Then again, most top teams that have been profiled this season display the same tactics. You have to work with what you've got.
Even take 2009 as an example of adaptation. For the first time ever, FM did not place a runner in the top ten. They didn't even place someone in the top twenty overall (how dare they). The result: They still won by 73 points.
The same conclusion for why Fayetteville-Manlius is so good is the same as in found in another study.
Between 1995 and 200, economist Ignacio Palacios-Huerta created a database of 1,417 penalty kicks in soccer. In his study, he calculated the success rate of the kicker, goalkeeper, and strategy that each player should employ in the circumstances of a penalty kick.
Although the data is useful, such as in the 2008 Champions League Final between Chelsea and Manchester United, the conclusion was expected. It might not look like it, but there are papers that have been published regarding the use of game theory in this penalty shoot-out.
There was no way to predict where a player would take a penalty kick based on his history. Randomization was the answer.
After all of the data analysis, examination of the "Stotan" lifestyle, workouts, mileage, and more, the conclusion is that there is no secret for why Fayetteville-Manlius is so dominant. Even though coach Bill Aris has said the exact same thing in multiple interviews, it's not meant to be hyperbole.
They are just that good.