Enowitz Calc v2.0

Many U.S track fans will remember 2012 as the “Year of the Distance Runner.” With silver medals in the 10k (Galen Rupp) and 1500 (Leo Manzano) and top 5 finishes in the 800, 1500, 5000 and marathon by Duane Solomon, Nick Symmonds, Matt Centrowitz, Bernard Lagat and Meb Keflezighi, 2012 was a banner year for American mid-distance and distance runners. 

However, 2012 will go down in my book as the “Year of the Model.” Statisticians like Nate Silver brought prognostication and forecasting to late night talk shows and the front-pages of the NY Times. Better yet, a museum dedicated entirely to math opened in New York City (MoMath). Models have always been useful, but now they are being recognized by the masses.  With this in mind, I will do my best to win this year’s season of America’s Next Top Modeler and put out the 4^th annual Enowitz Calculator predictions.

Before going straight to the predictions, it is important to note what this model can do and where it falls short:

What we can do:

• Quantify the seemingly unquantifiable. There are no formal statistics for being a good kicker or being a “big race” runner. However, we can create proxies for these variables using one’s finishing place at conference races, margin of victories / margin of losses, historical performances in championship races dating back to high school and a number of other corollary variables 

What we can’t do:

• Predict what runner will make the finals. For example, the calculator may think a runner will perform well if he makes the final, but due to the different dynamics in preliminary type races, they may not even make the finals (prelims go out slower than finals and are different based on the fact that runners can qualify on time, thus giving 2^nd heat runners an advantage). The calculator does takes into effect that fact that some runners in the final will likely be tired from the prelim rounds or from running the DMR / 3k the night before, but does not try to predict winners of these preliminary rounds.

 

Now onto the predictions. This year I will look at the model vs. the scout. The model is the strictly data output from the calculator whereas the scout is based on my a priori opinion before I looked at the numbers 
 

The Model	The Scout
1. Chris O’Hare -- no surprise here, collegiate record holder, but interestingly only second all-time in the Enowitz Calc rankings (Robby Andrews is all-time leader)	1. Robby Creese – rule number 1 of the NCAA indoor mile: very rarely does the top seed win -- I’m going with Mr. Robby Creese for the upset
2. Ryan Hill – off the charts kicking ability, fantastic strength / XC runner. 3rd best seed time in the field (3:54.89)	2. Chris O’Hare – not picking the defending champion and collegiate record holder to win? Bold move.
3. Lawi Lalang --  Lalang ran a 13:08 5k last year indoors at the Millrose Games. That is absurd. However, he has shown some weakness in championship races	3. Ryan Hill–  he is competitive in every race he runs in. Hard not seeing him in the top 3
4. Robby Creese – big drop off after top 3 (O’Hare, Hill and Lalang) according to the Calc, but if some of the simulations Creese is able to close the gap. The Calc loves his speed, number of prior victories and relay experiences	4. Mac Fleet – if he is not tired from the prelims, he could be a real threat. 2nd at this meet as a freshman
5. Mac Fleet – major bifurcation here. Calc sees him either finishing very well if he makes the final or perhaps being too tired. Very difficult given the gap in results between his freshman year and now	5. Austin Mudd – Like Fleet, Mudd is a big time kicker. However, too many tough guys up top
6. Austin Mudd – speed kills in championship races and with the best 800 PR in the field (1:47.59), he has got it	6. Lawi Lalang –  3k the night prior may take a lot out of him. Then again, 13:08. Wow. That is only a second off of Lopez Lomon’s AR 9(13:07) from last year
7. Raul Botezan – championship experience does matter and Botezan is one of the few returners from last year	7. Raul Botezan – Botezan could surprise many at this year’s meet. The only question mark his ability to run the rounds
8. Brett Johnson – rounding into form well. He is another guy that could crack the top 3. Need more data points to reduce uncertainty of this pick	8. Joseph Stilin – he has the strength to be dangerous after rounds
9. Michael Atchoo – one of the favorites based on his PB  (3:57.14), but teams XC performance vs. ranking (which is actually a decent indicator of coach’s ability to peak) is suspect	9. Brett Johnson –Johnson is one my darkhorse picks for the meet. His relay performance at the Armory was very impressive
10. John Simons – in a field with 3 sub 3:55 guys, it is tough to be completive with only a 3:59.32	10. Matt Miner – can his dream season continue? Big improvements this year going from 4:04 to sub 4, but is that enough?
11. Julian Matthews – Calc likes that he ran his 3:58 at BU rather than at the Dempsey. It seems obvious, but the math shows that running a fast time on a 200 banked track is more impressive than an equivalent time on a flat / oversized track	11. Michael Atchoo – Stanford can use team tactics to try to move up, but not sure how it will play out
12. Joseph Stilin – kind of scary that a 3:39 / 7:53 / 13:38 guy is this far down the list	12. Tyler Stutzman – see "The Model"
13. Tyler Stutzman – tough to put him any higher on the list given his relative position to his teammate throughout the season, Atchoo (Gesundheit)	13. Julian Matthews – Third year in the row breaking 4 (3:58.57 in 2011, 3:59.34 in 2012 and 3:58.14 in 2013), will this be Matthews year to break out at NCAAs?
14. Christopher Fallon – fool me one, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. The Calc went long last year on former Buckeye, Corey Leslie, picking him to get 2nd and was very wrong	14. John Simons – 3:59 / 7:55 / 13:53 this season, so he has the range
15. Matt Miner – unfortunately for the former Dartmouth runner, a school’s U.S News & World Report rating does not factor into the Calc…	15. Robert Denault – I was totally fooled last year by McEntee finishing so high. Can his Villanova teammate bust the Calc for the second year in the row?
16. Robert Denault –just like March Madness, 16 seeds have a tough time	16. Christopher Fallon – First time to the big dance may prove to be too much to handle

Addendum: A big thanks to Mr. Mitch Kastof for the motivation to write the article. Perhaps he will share his predictions and we can have a friendly competition