Diamond League Herculis (Monaco) 2013Jul 20, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
Jenny Simpson is perfecting her kick and the timing couldn't be any better
Jenny Simpson is perfecting her kick and the timing couldn't be any better
If there’s anyone to fear at the bell, it’s Jenny Simpson. The defending 1500m World Champion has shown us quite a few times this year that she’s formidable over the final 400m. Will that translate to a title defense in Moscow? She has some big names in her way, but she’s certainly fine-tuning those final gears.
In her first Diamond League win, Simpson blew away the field to take the win in 4:00.48. It’s a season’s and near personal best, but more on the latter in a bit. She’s clearly coming into form at the perfect time with the World Championships on the horizon.
If she’s going to defend her title (or just make the podium), Simpson is going to have to show the world that perfect race execution that got her the gold medal in ’09.
The question is "How will the race play out?" We’ll assume that the women’s 1500m final in Moscow won’t be quick enough to establish a new world leader. Even though it took a sub-4 performance (3:58.75 from Bahrain’s Maryam Yusuf Jamal) to win the ’07 World Championships in Osaka, the recent trend of tactics in the final suggest otherwise.
Maybe we’re still hungover from the pedestrian pace of the London Olympic final, but it’s not like the upcoming metric mile in Moscow is going to be Hicham El Guerrouj’s ridiculous 3:27.65 win at the ’99 World Championships.
Note: It took a 58.23 last lap to for Asli Çakir Alptekin to win the gold medal in London, but we're throwing that statistic out the window.
Simpson has proven that she has the tactical prowess to be in the right spot at the right time, especially at the bell. The only question is whether she can turn on the jets.
This season, there’s been little question. Even still, she’s only been getting better as the summer has progressed.
Below is a table of Simpson’s fast-finishes from two of her career races (her personal best from ’09 Pre and her win at the ’11 WChamps) and all of her 1500m races this season.
It should be noted that when Simpson set her personal best at Prefontaine, the pace was hot from the start. After doing a bit of research, it should also be noted that entering the 2009 season, her personal bests were 2:09.37 and 4:11.36.
Again, she's come a long way.
The two obvious takeaways from the table above are that she’s not only getting faster over the last lap, but she’s doing it off a quicker pace, too. Who still stands in her way?
Probably just two women. Simpson is a very strong candidate for a medal, but she’ll have to beat Abeba Aregawi (#1 in the world - 3:56.60 from Doha) and Genzebe Dibaba (#3 in the world - 3:57.54, also from Doha).
Why are we not counting the second fastest woman in the world, Faith Kipyegon? Even though she took second in Doha (3:56.98), Kipyegon has been going backwards since then. A 4:01.08 second place finish at Prefontaine and 4:05.31 seventh place finish in Rome doesn’t bode well for the upcoming WChamps.
We’re also not counting the fourth fastest in the world, Hellen Obiri for obvious reasons. Even though she ran 3:58.58 to take the win at Prefontaine, Simpson just beat her in Monaco.
The two contenders have run the top top marks in the world, but what about their kicks? Well, they all went head-to-head in Doha with Aregawi coming out on top. The results are below.
To add to the upcoming anticipation in Russia, Simpson, Aregawi, and Dibaba have already raced against one another in Rome. Simpson’s last lap is above, but she took third behind Dibaba (second) and Aregawi.
We couldn’t tell by the video, but it looks like Aregawi ran her last 400m in 57.9. Dibaba was roughly 59.4. Still, Simpson has been improving and could be even closer at the finish (maybe even at the front?).
Since Rome, Aregawi has continued her unstoppable reign with wins in Birmingham (4:03.70) and Lausanne (4:02.11). The Swedes must be proud of their new superstar. Dibaba has since run a 5k in Oslo, where she took third in 14:37.68. We’re pretty sure that Dibaba was originally a 5000m athlete, but like Simpson, she’s enjoyed success at a different event.
Will this be the result in Moscow?
In her first Diamond League win, Simpson blew away the field to take the win in 4:00.48. It’s a season’s and near personal best, but more on the latter in a bit. She’s clearly coming into form at the perfect time with the World Championships on the horizon.
If she’s going to defend her title (or just make the podium), Simpson is going to have to show the world that perfect race execution that got her the gold medal in ’09.
The question is "How will the race play out?" We’ll assume that the women’s 1500m final in Moscow won’t be quick enough to establish a new world leader. Even though it took a sub-4 performance (3:58.75 from Bahrain’s Maryam Yusuf Jamal) to win the ’07 World Championships in Osaka, the recent trend of tactics in the final suggest otherwise.
Maybe we’re still hungover from the pedestrian pace of the London Olympic final, but it’s not like the upcoming metric mile in Moscow is going to be Hicham El Guerrouj’s ridiculous 3:27.65 win at the ’99 World Championships.
Note: It took a 58.23 last lap to for Asli Çakir Alptekin to win the gold medal in London, but we're throwing that statistic out the window.
Simpson has proven that she has the tactical prowess to be in the right spot at the right time, especially at the bell. The only question is whether she can turn on the jets.
This season, there’s been little question. Even still, she’s only been getting better as the summer has progressed.
Below is a table of Simpson’s fast-finishes from two of her career races (her personal best from ’09 Pre and her win at the ’11 WChamps) and all of her 1500m races this season.
| Race | At the Bell | Finish | Last Lap |
| '09 Prefontaine Classic | 2:57.85 | 3:59.90 | 62.05 |
| '11 World Championships | 3:04.47 | 4:05.42 | ~61.30 |
| '13 Drake Relays | 3:00.31 | 4:03.35 | 63.04 |
| '13 Rome DL | 3:03.5 | 4:02.30 | 59.98 |
| '13 Monaco DL | 3:01.18 | 4:00.48 | 59.30 |
It should be noted that when Simpson set her personal best at Prefontaine, the pace was hot from the start. After doing a bit of research, it should also be noted that entering the 2009 season, her personal bests were 2:09.37 and 4:11.36.
Again, she's come a long way.
The two obvious takeaways from the table above are that she’s not only getting faster over the last lap, but she’s doing it off a quicker pace, too. Who still stands in her way?
Probably just two women. Simpson is a very strong candidate for a medal, but she’ll have to beat Abeba Aregawi (#1 in the world - 3:56.60 from Doha) and Genzebe Dibaba (#3 in the world - 3:57.54, also from Doha).
Why are we not counting the second fastest woman in the world, Faith Kipyegon? Even though she took second in Doha (3:56.98), Kipyegon has been going backwards since then. A 4:01.08 second place finish at Prefontaine and 4:05.31 seventh place finish in Rome doesn’t bode well for the upcoming WChamps.
We’re also not counting the fourth fastest in the world, Hellen Obiri for obvious reasons. Even though she ran 3:58.58 to take the win at Prefontaine, Simpson just beat her in Monaco.
The two contenders have run the top top marks in the world, but what about their kicks? Well, they all went head-to-head in Doha with Aregawi coming out on top. The results are below.
|
|
At the Bell | Finish | Last Lap |
| Abeba Aregawi | 2:55.3 | 3:56.60 | 61.3 |
| Faith Kipyegon | 2:55.5 | 3:56.98 | 61.48 |
| Genzebe Dibaba | 2:55.1 | 3:57.54 | 62.44 |
To add to the upcoming anticipation in Russia, Simpson, Aregawi, and Dibaba have already raced against one another in Rome. Simpson’s last lap is above, but she took third behind Dibaba (second) and Aregawi.
We couldn’t tell by the video, but it looks like Aregawi ran her last 400m in 57.9. Dibaba was roughly 59.4. Still, Simpson has been improving and could be even closer at the finish (maybe even at the front?).
Since Rome, Aregawi has continued her unstoppable reign with wins in Birmingham (4:03.70) and Lausanne (4:02.11). The Swedes must be proud of their new superstar. Dibaba has since run a 5k in Oslo, where she took third in 14:37.68. We’re pretty sure that Dibaba was originally a 5000m athlete, but like Simpson, she’s enjoyed success at a different event.
Will this be the result in Moscow?