IAAF World Championships in Athletics Moscow 2013 - Results Photos Updates

Simpson will make the podium, but gold is a tough bet

Aug 6, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff

Two years ago, there was a pack of seven in the women’s 1500m coming off the final turn in Daegu. With the podium just one homestretch away, positioning would be key as everyone was already in a full-sprint.

Then, out in the far reaches of lane three, we saw Jenny Simpson start to move. In a matter of a few meters, she went from a close fourth, to a clear second, and then there was no one in the world in front of her as she reached the line. Simpson had become the world 1500m champion.

It wasn’t the most beautiful race I had ever seen, but it’s one that I’ll never forget. Every time I watch that finish, I imagine that it wasn’t just Simpson propelling herself to the finish, but the whole nation. The U.S. had won one 1500m gold prior to ’11, but it’s since been shrouded in some controversy. This was history in the making.

For me, this is a trademark Simpson finish. She stays out of trouble, maintains contact, covers the small moves, and fights all the way to the end. Two years later, she still has the same qualities of a world champion, but she’s on another level.

That’s why it’s a bit weird to think that while she has very good odds at returning to the podium, the likelihood of her defending her title isn’t fantastic. Then again, the odds weren’t great in Daegu. Maybe that’s why I’m a poor betting man.

Note: Ryan Fenton claims that right before the start of the final, he told a french journalist that if Simpson (not Uceny) was there with a lap to go, she’d be a serious threat. I’m going to need some proof.

It’s been quite a year for Simpson. Since her move back to Mark Wetmore, she’s experienced nearly unparalleled success during the “regular season.” It hasn’t been an outdoor campaign of personal bests, but the manner in which she’s running these races make her a legitimate contender for gold in Moscow.

After the Drake Relays, we compared Simpson’s last laps at the ’11 Championships and her race in Des Moines, IA. Her $25,000 win was her fastest race since 2010 (she ran 4:03.63 in New York), but it was the last lap that was much more important.

As some would say, “It’s all about the last lap.”

This theory proved to be right after her huge win in Monaco, where Simpson sealed her first Diamond League win with a 59.30 last lap. Her winning time (4:00.48) was her second fastest 1500m, ever. Even more impressive was the fact that her last lap was possibly her shortest (in duration, that is) 400m, ever.

Race	At the Bell	Finish	Last Lap
'09 Prefontaine Classic	2:57.85	3:59.90	62.05
'11 World Championships	3:04.47	4:05.42	~61.30
'13 Drake Relays	3:00.31	4:03.35	63.04
'13 Rome DL	3:03.5	4:02.30	59.98
'13 Monaco DL	3:01.18	4:00.48	59.30

She’s in personal best form and has clinical closing speed? That’s can’t be beat, right?

The Gold Medal Bet

Since I’m more of a pragmatic gambler, it’s hard for me to not take Abede Aregawi to win gold. The world leader has been undefeated all year and unless something wild happens in Moscow, her winning ways should continue.

Even if you disregard her time-based resume, Aregawi has already beaten the best in the world in both Doha and Rome.

At the Doha DL Meeting, we saw Aregawi not only run her world leading time (3:56.60), but beat both Faith Kipyegon (second fastest in the world) and Genzebe Dibaba (third fastest).

While the times were quick, the pace didn’t make the final 400m any slower. The splits for the top three in the world are below.

	At the Bell	Finish	Last Lap
Abeba Aregawi	2:55.3	3:56.60	61.3
Faith Kipyegon	2:55.5	3:56.98	61.48
Genzebe Dibaba	2:55.1	3:57.54	62.44

In Rome, we saw Aregawi once again kick away from Dibaba with Simpson in chase. After that race, we thought that that finish would be the order in Moscow.

Since then, two things have changed.

1) Simpson has fine tuned her engine
2) Dibaba has been MIA

If we stick to our matter-of-fact betting patterns, we’re weary of picking Dibaba. Since her third place finish in the Olso 5000m (14:37.68) and subsequent decision to just race the 1500m, she hasn’t stepped on the track.

Plus, we still have some not-so-good memories from the Olympics. Last year, Dibaba was the fourth fastest in the world with her 3:57.77 Ethiopian national record in Shanghai. That was in May. Three months later at the London Olympics, Dibaba ran 4:11.15 in the 1500m semifinal and was eliminated. If she’s healthy, she’s a threat. If not, then Simpson moves up another spot.

Fun Fact: Dibaba’s national record was broken a few weeks later by now Swedish citizen, Aregawi.

There’s only two other women who have run faster than Simpson this year. Hellen Obiri, who’s ranked fourth with her 3:58.58 win at Prefontaine, was beat by Simpson in Monaco.

Fun Fact #2: When Obiri went down in '11, she took down Morgan Uceny, too.

The other is Kipyego. We had this to say after the Monaco DL:

Why are we not counting the second fastest woman in the world, Faith Kipyegon? Even though she took second in Doha (3:56.98), Kipyegon has been going backwards since then. A 4:01.08 second place finish at Prefontaine and 4:05.31 seventh place finish in Rome doesn’t bode well for the upcoming World Champs.

Prediction

With that in mind, where will Simpson finish? We’re sure that Aregawi will bring home gold, but Simpson will get silver. We also don’t expect the final to be too quick, so the finish will be close. If classic Simpson shows up in Moscow, then we could see this happy face again.

Side Bets

Since we’ve been in a betting mood all season, here are some extra props.

Over/under: 2.5 American women in the 1500m final
Mary Cain makes the final: 2/1
Treniere Moser and Cory McGee make it out of the quarterfinal: 4/1

This was the best race all year all because there was money on the line (literally).