5th Avenue Mile 2013Sep 20, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
Men's 5th Avenue Mile Preview: History favors the bold
Men's 5th Avenue Mile Preview: History favors the bold
This Sunday, the “most expensive street in the world” will once again be home to one of the most competitive road miles in the world. Fifth Avenue in New York City is generally known for what lies between 49th and 60th street - expensive and prestigious stores. I’d also bet that the Apple Store up on 58th is pretty swamped right now with the launch of the new iPhone.
But the rabid crowds of Apple fanboys and girls will have to move behind even more police barriers and the fanfare will have to shift about 22 blocks north to 80th street for the start of the 5th Avenue Mile.
As always, the field assembled by New York Road Runners is pure class. There’s even a welcome basket waiting for you in your hotel room. Does the 5th Avenue Mile end the year with a bang or start the year on the right foot? Either way, there will be a show flying down 5th Avenue on Sunday.
Before we get to our predictions, some quick numbers:
2 - The number of past 5th Avenue Mile winners. Champions.
2.38 - The number of seconds the closest anyone has come to breaking Sydney Maree’s course record of 3:47.52, set at the event’s inauguration in 1981. In 1988, the course was moved a bit south, which took out two downhill blocks. Helpful.
4 - The number of athletes coming off a seasonal or personal best. Peak.
6 - The number of the top 10 fastest Americans in the field. ‘Murica.
7 - The number of athletes whose last race was a road mile. Trendy.
8 - The number of athletes who set a 1500m personal best this year. Form.
How hot do you have to be to win the last / first event of the year?
For a lot of these guys, it’s been a long season. The majority of the field most likely “peaked” for World Champs and are now using some of that post-post-season fitness to run something special (ie: Evan Jager). But how far is too far out to try for the win? We take a look at what the last five champions have run prior to their season’s finale.
2012 - Matt Centrowitz (3:52.4)
Race Prior: 3:32.47 in Brussels, 2nd fastest 1500m of the year
2011 - Bernard Lagat (3:50.50)
Race Prior: 4:06.01 at the City Games Mile, FTW
Race Prior to That: 7:32.13 in Rieti, season’s best
2010 - Amine Laalou (3:52.83)*
Race Prior: 3:35.49 in Split, third fastest 1500m of the year
* tested positive at the London Olympics, so take this for what it's worth
2009 - Andrew Baddeley (3:51.8)
Race Prior: 4:02 in the England versus Australia road mile (over Mo Farah)
Race Prior to That: 3:35.07 in Rieti, season’s best
2008 - Nick Willis (3:50.5)
Race Prior: 3:38.22 in Stugggart, slowest of his last eight consecutive 1500m races
Conclusion? It helps to be hot, but it also helps to be sharp. While Centro, Lagat, and Baddeley were all coming off seasonal bests (or close to ones), Willis was at his slowest point. How’d he pull off the win in NY? Probably just like he did in Beijing, where he swooped in the final meters for silver at the Olympics.
Taking all of this into account, who’s going to win this year?
The "favorite" prediction, one bold prediction, and one safe prediction.
Nick Symmonds
Believe the hype. He’s coming off a seasonal best in the 800m and has already run a personal best for 1500m. But in a race that will come down to gauging one’s kick from an awkward distance away from the finish, we like Symmonds.
After all, he pulled off a caper at the Oxy High Performance 1500m where he kicked away from everyone off a slow pace.
It's funny to look back to 2011 and see that Symmonds finished second to last. Now, he's one of the big favorites. A win here will cap off a dream season and start possibly jump-start a historical 2014.
David Torrence
The second fastest American at 1500m is yearning for a victory. The Flotrack office may not agree with this pick, but don’t sleep on Torrence. His last win may have been almost one year ago at the Lahaina Road Mile (3:59), but he’s been on fire.
Momentum will be key for Torrence. He’s already run two 1500m PRs and has been steadily climbing through the ranks each time he’s run the event.
Torrence's 5th Avenue Mile Finishes
2012 - 6th
2011 - 3rd
2010 - 9th
2009 - 10th
2008 - 10th
In 2010, Torrence made a small bid for home, but was immediately pulled in by Lagat and Laalou. In 2011, the mohawk-sporting Torrence made an even bigger bid for the win , but was once again pulled in by the same two. This year though, we think he has the walk to back up the long-run-from-home talk.
Also, if anyone has the picture of Torrence wearing a white tanktop with "Your Sponsor Here" sharpied on the front, please send it our way.
Bernard Lagat
Just when you think he’s out, he’s back. Though he only ran 3:36.36 (13th in Paris) and 3:37.62 (6th in Berlin) this year for 1500m, the other guys have reminded me to take historical races into account. In the last five years, Lagat has one first place finish, three runner-up finishes, and one fourth place finish. Savvy.
Though I’d argue with another bit of history. This year was Lagat’s slowest season at 1500m since 1997, where he ran a SB of 3:41.19. Still, here he is on the watch list because he's the most intelligent racer of the bunch. Ryan Fenton guarantees a top three finish for Lagat.
Dark Horses because why not
Evan Jager
After a HUGE personal best in the Brussels 5k, Jager is another who’s riding a lot of momentum. He finished right behind Symmonds at the Oxy HP 1500m, which shows that even though he’s moved up the 3000m steeplechase, that old miler speed is still there.
One last stat - Jager has set six personal bests this year, including the 1500m and indoor mile.
Ben Blankenship
In the month of August, Blankenship took home two road mile wins in Flint, MI (4:06) and the Minnesota Mile (3:53). He's definitely the most interesting dark horse pick.
Garrett Heath
Took home some big scalps at the City Games mile with his victory over Leo Manzano and a deteriorating Asbel Kiprop. He made a strong push last year and we like his confidence. He also took home the USA Road Mile Championship back in April (4:03) and finished second in the Minnesota Mile (3:58).
This'll be a big jump up in competition, though.
Lopez Lomong
Lomong set personal bests at the indoor and outdoor mile this year, but still doesn’t consider himself a miler. This will be his first try at the 5th Avenue Mile and if we know anything about Lopez and firsts, it’s that he might misjudge the finish.
But the rabid crowds of Apple fanboys and girls will have to move behind even more police barriers and the fanfare will have to shift about 22 blocks north to 80th street for the start of the 5th Avenue Mile.
As always, the field assembled by New York Road Runners is pure class. There’s even a welcome basket waiting for you in your hotel room. Does the 5th Avenue Mile end the year with a bang or start the year on the right foot? Either way, there will be a show flying down 5th Avenue on Sunday.
| Name | 1500m / Mile PR | Last Race |
| Bernard Lagat | 3:26.34 (2001) | 12:58.99 SB (Brussels 5k, 2nd) |
| Leo Manzano | 3:32.37 (2010) | 4:02 (City Games Mile, 2nd) |
| Nick Willis | 3:30.35 (2012) | 3:32.57 SB (Rieti 1500m, 4th) |
| Lopez Lomong | 3:32.20 (2010) | 3:43.79 (Moscow 1500m, 6th) |
| David Torrence | 3:33.23 (2013) | 3:33.23 PR (Rieti 1500m, 6th) |
| Ryan Gregson | 3:31.06 (2010) | 4:09 (City Games Mile, 7th) |
| Garrett Heath | 3:34.12 (2013) | 4:02 (City Games Mile, 1st) |
| Ben Blankenship | 3:54.10 (2011) | 3:53 (Minnesota Mile, 1st) |
| Collis Birmingham | 3:35.50 (2010) | 4:03 (City Games Mile, 3rd) |
| Evan Jager | 3:36.34 (2013) | 13:02.40 PR (Brussels 5k, 8th) |
| Pablo Solares | 3:36.67 (2009) | 3:44.79 (Rasschaert 1500m, 13th) |
| Ryan Hill | 3:54.89i (2013) | 13:43.14 (Brussels 5k, 15th) |
| Will Leer | 3:35.27 (2013) | 7:39.38 PR (Zagreb 3k, 7th) |
| Craig Miller | 3:35.48 (2013) | 3:54 (Minnesota Mile, 2nd) |
| Nick Symmonds | 3:34.55 (2013) | 1:43.03 (Brussels 800m, 2nd) |
| Matt Elliott | 3:36.61 (2013) | 3:59 (Minnesota Mile, 8th) |
| Daniel Huling | 3:37.53 (2012) | 8:26.51 (Berlin 3kST, 9th) |
| Brett Robinson | 3:38.94 (2012) | 13:45.44 (Quercia 5k, 8th) |
| Ben St. Lawrence | 3:39.6h (2010) | 7:40.48 (Rieti 3k, 6th) |
Before we get to our predictions, some quick numbers:
2 - The number of past 5th Avenue Mile winners. Champions.
2.38 - The number of seconds the closest anyone has come to breaking Sydney Maree’s course record of 3:47.52, set at the event’s inauguration in 1981. In 1988, the course was moved a bit south, which took out two downhill blocks. Helpful.
4 - The number of athletes coming off a seasonal or personal best. Peak.
6 - The number of the top 10 fastest Americans in the field. ‘Murica.
7 - The number of athletes whose last race was a road mile. Trendy.
8 - The number of athletes who set a 1500m personal best this year. Form.
How hot do you have to be to win the last / first event of the year?
For a lot of these guys, it’s been a long season. The majority of the field most likely “peaked” for World Champs and are now using some of that post-post-season fitness to run something special (ie: Evan Jager). But how far is too far out to try for the win? We take a look at what the last five champions have run prior to their season’s finale.
2012 - Matt Centrowitz (3:52.4)
Race Prior: 3:32.47 in Brussels, 2nd fastest 1500m of the year
2011 - Bernard Lagat (3:50.50)
Race Prior: 4:06.01 at the City Games Mile, FTW
Race Prior to That: 7:32.13 in Rieti, season’s best
2010 - Amine Laalou (3:52.83)*
Race Prior: 3:35.49 in Split, third fastest 1500m of the year
* tested positive at the London Olympics, so take this for what it's worth
2009 - Andrew Baddeley (3:51.8)
Race Prior: 4:02 in the England versus Australia road mile (over Mo Farah)
Race Prior to That: 3:35.07 in Rieti, season’s best
2008 - Nick Willis (3:50.5)
Race Prior: 3:38.22 in Stugggart, slowest of his last eight consecutive 1500m races
Conclusion? It helps to be hot, but it also helps to be sharp. While Centro, Lagat, and Baddeley were all coming off seasonal bests (or close to ones), Willis was at his slowest point. How’d he pull off the win in NY? Probably just like he did in Beijing, where he swooped in the final meters for silver at the Olympics.
Taking all of this into account, who’s going to win this year?
The "favorite" prediction, one bold prediction, and one safe prediction.
Nick Symmonds
Believe the hype. He’s coming off a seasonal best in the 800m and has already run a personal best for 1500m. But in a race that will come down to gauging one’s kick from an awkward distance away from the finish, we like Symmonds.
After all, he pulled off a caper at the Oxy High Performance 1500m where he kicked away from everyone off a slow pace.
It's funny to look back to 2011 and see that Symmonds finished second to last. Now, he's one of the big favorites. A win here will cap off a dream season and start possibly jump-start a historical 2014.
David Torrence
The second fastest American at 1500m is yearning for a victory. The Flotrack office may not agree with this pick, but don’t sleep on Torrence. His last win may have been almost one year ago at the Lahaina Road Mile (3:59), but he’s been on fire.
Momentum will be key for Torrence. He’s already run two 1500m PRs and has been steadily climbing through the ranks each time he’s run the event.
2012 - 6th
2011 - 3rd
2010 - 9th
2009 - 10th
2008 - 10th
In 2010, Torrence made a small bid for home, but was immediately pulled in by Lagat and Laalou. In 2011, the mohawk-sporting Torrence made an even bigger bid for the win , but was once again pulled in by the same two. This year though, we think he has the walk to back up the long-run-from-home talk.
Also, if anyone has the picture of Torrence wearing a white tanktop with "Your Sponsor Here" sharpied on the front, please send it our way.
Bernard Lagat
Just when you think he’s out, he’s back. Though he only ran 3:36.36 (13th in Paris) and 3:37.62 (6th in Berlin) this year for 1500m, the other guys have reminded me to take historical races into account. In the last five years, Lagat has one first place finish, three runner-up finishes, and one fourth place finish. Savvy.
Though I’d argue with another bit of history. This year was Lagat’s slowest season at 1500m since 1997, where he ran a SB of 3:41.19. Still, here he is on the watch list because he's the most intelligent racer of the bunch. Ryan Fenton guarantees a top three finish for Lagat.
Dark Horses because why not
Evan Jager
After a HUGE personal best in the Brussels 5k, Jager is another who’s riding a lot of momentum. He finished right behind Symmonds at the Oxy HP 1500m, which shows that even though he’s moved up the 3000m steeplechase, that old miler speed is still there.
One last stat - Jager has set six personal bests this year, including the 1500m and indoor mile.
Ben Blankenship
In the month of August, Blankenship took home two road mile wins in Flint, MI (4:06) and the Minnesota Mile (3:53). He's definitely the most interesting dark horse pick.
Garrett Heath
Took home some big scalps at the City Games mile with his victory over Leo Manzano and a deteriorating Asbel Kiprop. He made a strong push last year and we like his confidence. He also took home the USA Road Mile Championship back in April (4:03) and finished second in the Minnesota Mile (3:58).
This'll be a big jump up in competition, though.
Lopez Lomong
Lomong set personal bests at the indoor and outdoor mile this year, but still doesn’t consider himself a miler. This will be his first try at the 5th Avenue Mile and if we know anything about Lopez and firsts, it’s that he might misjudge the finish.