Wisconsin adidas XC Invitational 2013

#1 Providence upset at Wisconsin - Women's Wisconsin FloRating Projections

#1 Providence upset at Wisconsin - Women's Wisconsin FloRating Projections

Oct 17, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
#1 Providence upset at Wisconsin - Women's Wisconsin FloRating Projections
We thought that projecting the finishes for 366 runners in the men's race was inane, but we finally completed the women's race and realized that there could potentially be 369 finishers. Fancy that.

The projections below are based on every team's best (and sometimes only) race this season. Everything is objective, so we didn't make any changes to any of the results. Our creeping suspicion about Providence lacking a fifth finisher looks to be true as Arizona could potentially take them down this weekend.

It should be noted that Arizona may have run "harder" at Roy Griak than Providence did at the Battle of Beantown or Washington did at Bill Dellinger, but the scores so close in our projections that anything can happen. Here's the individual and team scores:


Individual Projections
Team Scores
Place    Name                School
1        Abbey D'Agostino    Dartmouth College
2        EMILY SISSON        Providence
3        JULIET BOTTORFF     DUKE
4        Shelby Houlihan     Arizona State
5        LAURA NAGEL         Providence
6        Samantha Ginther    Indiana University
7        LIV WESTPHAL        Boston College
8        Waverly Neer        Columbia University
9        SARAH COLLINS       Providence
10       Elvin Kibet         Arizona
11       Crystal Nelson      Iowa State
12       SAMANTHA SILVA      NEW MEXICO
13       Amy-Eloise Neale    WASHINGTON
14       Rachel Sorna        Cornell University
15       Nicci Corbin        Arizona
16       Kelsey Duerksen     Indiana University
17       Katie Flood         WASHINGTON
18       Kayla Beattie       Arizona
19       BRIDGET DAHLBERG    SAN FRANCISCO
20       Laura Sara          UConn
21       EVA KRCHOVA         SAN FRANCISCO
22       Sarah Sumpter       UC DAVIS
23       Maria Larsson       Arizona
24       Rachele Schulist    Michigan State
25       KELLY CURRAN        NOTRE DAME
26       Grace Heymsfield    Arkansas
27       CHARLOTTE ARTER     NEW MEXICO
28       Dana Giordano       Dartmouth College
29       CALLI THACKERY      NEW MEXICO
30       CATARINA ROCHA      Providence
31       ANNIE KEOWN         Stony Brook
32       Kelsey Smith        UCLA
33       OLIVIA BURNE        Stony Brook
34       Joanna Thompson     North Carolina State
35       Laura Docherty      Minnesota
36       EMMA-LISA MURPHY    Wisconsin
37       Dominique Scott     Arkansas
38       Katie Knight        WASHINGTON
39       Maddie Meyers       WASHINGTON
40       Leah O'Connor       Michigan State
41       MADELEINE DAVIDSON  Boston College
42       KATE JAMBORETZ      SAN FRANCISCO
43       CHRISTINA MELIAN    Stony Brook
44       NATALIE SHIELDS     BYU
45       ALEXA ARAGON        NOTRE DAME
46       Katie Landwehr      Michigan State
47       Liz Anderson        Vanderbilt
48       Marielle Hall       Texas
49       Katie Moraczewski   Minnesota
50       Emily Shearer       Cornell University
51       Perez Rotich        Iowa State
52       Shelby Jackson      Michigan State
53       Carly Hamilton      Georgia
54       Annie Mooney        UCLA
55       Shannon Klenke      Arkansas
56       Lindsay Clark       Michigan State
57       Leila Mantilla      Columbia University
58       Stephanie Brown     Arkansas
59       Eleanor Fulton      WASHINGTON
60       Bethanie Brown      Iowa State
61       HELEENE TAMBET      NEW MEXICO
62       Sandie Raines       Arkansas
63       Annie LeHardy       North Carolina
64       ANIMA BANKS         DUKE
65       Margo Malone        Syracuse
66       Cory McGee          Florida
67       Maggie Bollig       Minnesota
68       SARAH DISANZA       Wisconsin
69       Sarah Delozier      Dartmouth College
70       Molly   Kayfes      Minnesota
71       ERIN CAWLEY         Wisconsin
72       NICOLE NIELSEN      BYU
73       ELENA BURKARD       SAN FRANCISCO
74       MORGAN MUELLER      Boston College
75       Elizabeth Simpson   Cornell University
76       Montgomery, Hillary Texas A&M
77       Megan Siebert       Texas
78       ANDREA OSTENSO      NORTHWESTERN
79       KIRA GARRY          Yale
80       NICOLE ROBERTS      NEW MEXICO
81       TAMARA ARMOUSH      NEW MEXICO
82       MAOR TIYOURI        SAN FRANCISCO
83       Diane Robison       Arkansas
84       ANDREA HARRISON     BYU
85       Viviana Hanley      Harvard
86       SOPHIE CURL         SAN FRANCISCO
87       BRITTANY WINSLOW    Boston College
88       GABI ANZALONE       Wisconsin
89       Hanna   Peterson    Arizona
90       Katie Fry           UC DAVIS
91       Paige Johnston      Arkansas
92       LIANA EPSTEIN       Yale
93       SARAH YINGLING      BYU
94       LAVINIA JURKIEWICZ  Wisconsin
95       Katy Moen           Iowa State
96       Elizabeth Whelan    North Carolina
97       MOLLY HANSON        Wisconsin
98       Jochen, Karis       Texas A&M
99       THERESA SELESTOW    Wisconsin
100      Agata Strausa       Florida
101      Jessica Kamilos     Arkansas
102      EMILY FRYDRYCH      NOTRE DAME
103      Anna Welsh          UC DAVIS
104      Adriana Olivas      Arizona State
105      Rachel  Drake       Minnesota
106      RACHEL MCNALLY      Wisconsin
107      Danika Simonson     Columbia University
108      LIBBY KOCHA         NORTHWESTERN
109      Kaylee Flanagan     WASHINGTON
110      Morgan Kelly        Harvard
111      Rebecca Chandler    Vanderbilt
112      GABBY GONZALES      NOTRE DAME
113      Alison Lanois       Dartmouth College
114      Liz     Berkholtz   Minnesota
115      ERIN MURPHY         Providence
116      Stephanie  Bulder   Arizona
117      Blake, Sophie       Texas A&M
118      Elle Sanders        UCLA
119      JULIANNA MILLER     DUKE
120      Megan   Rodgers     Michigan State
121      Kaitlyn Kramer      North Carolina State
122      MAKENNA SMITH       BYU
123      Lily    Williams    Vanderbilt
124      CATHERINE MALOY     Boston College
125      Hannah Rowe         Dartmouth College
126      Kelli   Budd        Minnesota
127      Sarah Bennett       Dartmouth College
128      Brianna Johnson     Indiana University
129      Bronte Golick       UCLA
130      RACHEL STEWART      BYU
131      Erin    Menefee     Arizona
132      LORRAINE MCCARTHY   Stony Brook
133      Meghan Marvin       UCLA
134      Hailey  Ricks       Weber State
135      Chelsea Carrick     Columbia University
136      Fletcher, Grace     Texas A&M
137      KELLY WHITLEY       Wisconsin
138      Alexis  Wiersma     Michigan State
139      Bori Tozser         Cornell University
140      JENNA PIANIN        NORTHWESTERN
141      Molly   Callahan    Arizona
142      Shannon Harcus      UC DAVIS
143      Baylee Mires        WASHINGTON
144      Erica Ridderman     Indiana University
145      Becca Dyson         Minnesota
146      Kaila   Urick       Minnesota
147      Regan Ward          Arkansas
148      ALANNA PORETTA      Boston College
149      Taylor Spillane     Cornell University
150      Cheruiyot, Benadate Louisville
151      Hannah Kirkegaard   UC DAVIS
152      Ejiro   Okoro       Iowa State
153      Erin Johnson        WASHINGTON
154      HANNAH ALPERT       Yale
155      Alexa   Rumsey      Michigan State
156      Jessie  Petersen    Syracuse
157      ELIZABETH PREDMORE  Boston College
158      AMANDA RICKERT      Boston College
159      Brenna  Symoniak    Syracuse
160      Chepchumba, Agnes   Louisville
161      Brianna Nerud       Syracuse
162      Annabel Clark       UCLA
163      SYDNI MEUNIER       NOTRE DAME
164      Madeleine Ankhelyi  Harvard
165      LINDSEY NIELSON     BYU
166      Samantha Siler      Columbia University
167      Marianne Collard    Cornell University
168      Amanda Behnke       Indiana University
169      Claire  Benjamin    Vanderbilt
170      CHANDLER OLSON      Yale
171      DANIELLE WINSLOW    Boston College
172      Carmen  Carlos      Vanderbilt
173      Kristen Niedrach    Cornell University
174      CAMILLE BLACKMAN    NORTHWESTERN
175      Bethany Neeley      Indiana University
176      Joseph, Amira       Vanderbilt
177      COLLEEN MCNULTY     Wisconsin
178      KIRSTEN FOLLETT     NEW MEXICO
179      Kate Jamboretz      SAN FRANCISCO
180      Gennocro, Adair     Louisville
181      Molodynia, Michelle Louisville
182      Maggie  Gannon      Iowa State
183      Maura   Linde       Syracuse
184      Julie Macedo        Florida
185      JULIA BUFORD        NORTHWESTERN
186      Summer  Harper      Weber State
187      Samantha Norman     North Carolina State
188      Melanie Brender     Michigan State
189      Claire DeVoe        Cornell University
190      Connor Ward         Texas
191      Megan   Moye        North Carolina State
192      MAREN FASSMANN      BYU
193      Chanli Mundy        Indiana University
194      Kait    Mincke      Minnesota
195      Bridget End         Dartmouth College
196      Paige Tennison      UCLA
197      Erika   Kemp        North Carolina State
198      Meredith Speakman   Syracuse
199      Bushey, Emily       Louisville
200      Shelby Hayes        Florida
201      Brittany Marches    Texas
202      BRYANNA ALLISON     Providence
203      Erika Barr          UC DAVIS
204      Nicole  DiMercurio  Georgia
205      Sierra Vega         UCLA
206      Andrea  Toppin      Iowa State
207      Meghan Shea         Texas
208      Alaina Perez        Texas
209      JENNICA REDD        BYU
210      Emily   Pritt       North Carolina State
211      Vanessa Valentine   Vanderbilt
212      Jen Guidera         Harvard
213      Angela  Swain       Michigan State
214      Alexandra       ClinSyracuse
215      Caroline Williams   Columbia University
216      Christine Hoffmann  UC DAVIS
217      Hilary Teaford      UC DAVIS
218      Megan Morgan        WASHINGTON
219      Kala Stone          Arizona State
220      Alexa   Harvey      North Carolina State
221      Delaney, Katherine  Vanderbilt
222      ANNA DEMAREE        Yale
223      Kailey Ulland       SAN FRANCISCO
224      Bethany Olson       Iowa State
225      Grace   Orders      Vanderbilt
226      ASHLEY BERRY        DUKE
227      Kate Bucknam        Minnesota
228      Jamie Stokes        Weber State
229      Jenna Maack         Arizona State
230      Savannah Kirk       Georgia
231      Selena Pasadyn      Harvard
232      SOPHIA ZIEMIAN      DUKE
233      GABRIELLE THIVIERGE NOTRE DAME
234      Haley   Johnson     Minnesota
235      ANN POWERS          NORTHWESTERN
236      Clea Formaz         Arizona
237      MOLLY KEATING       Providence
238      LILY ENGLEBREKT     SAN FRANCISCO
239      AMBER ZIMMERMAN     NEW MEXICO
240      Caleigh Bachop      North Carolina
241      LAUREN MULLINS      Providence
242      ELIZABETH CALDWELL  Stony Brook
243      Katie   Flesicher   Syracuse
244      Emily Durgin        UConn
245      Taylor Tubbs        Florida
246      ELENA BARHAM        NORTHWESTERN
247      ELENA MILLER        NORTHWESTERN
248      Chelsey Totten      Arizona State
249      Jenkins, Amanda     Texas A&M
250      Ashlee Powers       UCLA
251      Ava Kent            UCLA
252      Cramsey, Kelsey     Louisville
253      Shaina  Corbin      Arizona State
254      HALEY MEIER         DUKE
255      Corey Dowe          Cornell University
256      DARYL PHIL          SAN FRANCISCO
257      Caroline Marshall   Harvard
258      Bret    McDaniel    Georgia
259      Keri Wood           Arkansas
260      ABBY FARLEY         DUKE
261      Anna    Buenneke    Iowa State
262      Brigitte Mania      UConn
263      MELISSA CHAPMAN     Yale
264      Hannah  Jumper      Vanderbilt
265      Molly Winters       Indiana University
266      Jamie   Vandenberg  Minnesota
267      Olivia Sadler       Columbia University
268      Erika Veidis        Harvard
269      KATHLEEN POWELL     Providence
270      Anderson, Reagan    Vanderbilt
271      ELIZABETH O'BRIEN   Boston College
272      DANNA LEVIN         Boston College
273      Macy Bricks         Arizona State
274      MEGAN O'BRIEN       NORTHWESTERN
275      Rianna Goins        UC DAVIS
276      ANNE GREGORY        Wisconsin
277      MADISON GRANGER     DUKE
278      Erika   Ramsey      Georgia
279      DANIELLE ARAGON     NOTRE DAME
280      MARGARET MULLINS    Boston College
281      Ashley Moffett      SAN FRANCISCO
282      ALICE WRIGHT        NEW MEXICO
283      KenyettaIyevbele    North Carolina State
284      Devin McMahon       Cornell University
285      Willard, Katie      Texas A&M
286      ELIZABETH MCDONALD  Yale
287      Doria Kosmala       North Carolina
288      Aryn Foland         Columbia University
289      Sydney Segal        Columbia University
290      Nicole Evans        UCLA
291      Sara    Barron      Vanderbilt
292      Taylor  Mikkalson   Minnesota
293      Molly Renfer        Harvard
294      KATE POUDER         Stony Brook
295      Sydney  Leiher      Syracuse
296      Samantha Mohler     Arkansas
297      MEGAN RITCHIE       Boston College
298      JACKIE MCCARTHY     Providence
299      Megan   Malasarte   Georgia
300      Arianna Vailas      Dartmouth College
301      ALLISON STURGES     DUKE
302      LIGA BLYHOLDER      Wisconsin
303      Katie   Hill        Minnesota
304      Abby Mace           UConn
305      Katie   Penney      Arizona
306      Miranda Kewley      Arizona State
307      Andie   Zeman       Minnesota
308      MEAGAN ROECKER      Boston College
309      Georgia Tuttle      Columbia University
310      Helen SchlachtenhaufDartmouth College
311      ROBIN LYNN          Stony Brook
312      Sydney  Lesko       Iowa State
313      Taylor  McDowell    Iowa State
314      Salazar, Gabby      Texas A&M
315      Halsey  Merritt     North Carolina State
316      Yohe, Megan         Vanderbilt
317      Brooke  Koblitz     Georgia
318      RAVEN DORSEY        Stony Brook
319      Jen Owen            UCLA
320      Galloway, Johanna   Texas A&M
321      MOLLY PERSKY        Stony Brook
322      Cassy   Opitz       Minnesota
323      Kelsey  Braithwaite Weber State
324      Schoettmer, Tori    Louisville
325      CLAIRE SMITH        Boston College
326      Anne    Ferguson    Minnesota
327      Jillian Johnson     Minnesota
328      Marion  Kalafut     Georgia
329      MCKINZIE SCHULZ     NOTRE DAME
330      Hannah  Trasser     Minnesota
331      Stacey  Swatek      Minnesota
332      Lily Engelbrekt     SAN FRANCISCO
333      Ellie   Child       Weber State
334      Grace Morken        North Carolina
335      Lauren Wilch        SAN FRANCISCO
336      Melissa Cabak       Minnesota
337      Morgan  Ainslie     Georgia
338      Aundrea Holmes      North Carolina
339      Jenn  Cora          Georgia
340      Elizabeth Schultz   SAN FRANCISCO
341      Lauren  Domski      Minnesota
342      Sterling, Heather   Texas A&M
343      Amanda  Ward        Weber State
344      Chelsea Pettit      Minnesota
345      Laura Williamson    UConn
346      Kylie McCoy         North Carolina
347      Erin McConnell      Dartmouth College
348      Sophia Volk         SAN FRANCISCO
349      Klein, Megan        Louisville
350      Slavoski, Kara      Vanderbilt
351      Stephanie Solfelt   Minnesota
352      ELIZABETH DEVIVO    Providence
353      KATELYN SISCHO      Providence
354      Payton  Schutte     Arizona
355      Kelsey Kluesner     Indiana University
356      Ryanna  Henderson   North Carolina State
357      Gleitz, Meredith    Texas A&M
358      Beth    Wright      Syracuse
359      Noser, Claire       Louisville
360      RACHEL JONES        Yale
361      Dummer, Mackenzie   Louisville
362      Courtney KriegshauseVanderbilt
363      Sarah Gillespie     Harvard
364      Kiyohara, Leah      Louisville
365      Caroline O'Hea      North Carolina
366      Megan   Bailey      Minnesota
367      MOLLY MCCANN        Providence
368      Alice   Keller      Weber State
369      Dooley, Paige       Louisville
Place   School                  PTS
1       Arizona                 155
2       Providence              161
3       WASHINGTON              166
4       NEW MEXICO              209
5       Michigan State          218
6       SAN FRANCISCO           237
7       Arkansas                238
8       Minnesota               326
9       Boston College          333
10      Dartmouth College       336
11      Wisconsin               357
12      Iowa State              369
13      BYU                     415
14      Cornell University      427
15      NOTRE DAME              447
16      Indiana University      462
17      UCLA                    466
18      Columbia University     473
19      Stony Brook             481
20      UC DAVIS                508
21      Vanderbilt              622
22      DUKE                    644
23      Texas A&M               676
24      NORTHWESTERN            685
25      Yale                    717
26      Texas                   723
27      Syracuse                724
28      North Carolina State    730
29      Florida                 795
30      Harvard                 802
31      Arizona State           804
32      Louisville              870
33      North Carolina          1020
34      Georgia                 1023
35      UConn                   1175
36      Weber State             1204