Mt SAC Cross Country Invitational 2013Oct 25, 2013 by FloTrack Staff
Mt. SAC XC Preview: Sarah Baxter versus the heat, Blake Haney versus no one
Mt. SAC XC Preview: Sarah Baxter versus the heat, Blake Haney versus no one
It’s the world’s largest cross country invitational. With over 20,000 high school athletes making the trek over the legendary Mt. SAC cross country course, you would think that they would have to have more than one race going on at once...
... really? They run two races at a time? Huh.
Well, you’d think that it’d be tough to pick out some clear winners with such deep fields, but as always, the cream rises to the top.
We’ll breakdown why the favorites in in the big races will prevail and give you some help to win free Brooks shoes from Running Warehouse.
Sarah Baxter can break 16:00, but she'll have to beat the heat
It’s the question everyone wants to see answered at Mt. SAC. After running arguably the most impressive individual cross country race in high school history, Sarah Baxter makes her triumphant return to Mt. SAC for a final time.
Let’s just recap last year. Baxter’s winning time of 16:00 broke the previous course record by 16-seconds. That's it. That’s the entire recap. You can watch the race here if you want to see fearless (she say’s that she runs scared so take your pick) running.
Back to the Baxter conundrum. First, here’s the one main reason for why she can break 16:00 at Mt. SAC.
She’s run faster on every course this year, except for the Clovis Invitational, which she did not run last year. A short comparison of her XC races from 2013 and 2012 is below.
Note: Unfortunately, Woodbridge was run on a different course this year, so the year to year comparison doesn't totally work.
If she’s already run faster on two courses, why aren’t we confident that she’ll run faster on the third?
It’s going to be hot on Saturday. According to Weather Underground, the high last year at Mt. SAC was 69 degrees. To be more specific, it was about 63 degrees at the start of Baxter’s ’12 race.
This year, the high is supposed to be 86 degrees. Though it could be 55 degrees at 8am on Saturday, once that Sun comes out, things are going to heat up.
Again, we think Baxter can break 16:00 at Mt. SAC, but may not because of the weather. Don’t count her out, though. After what we saw last year, the two-time NXN individual champion can do the near-impossible.
Baxter should win, but her biggest challenge will come from Great Oak’s Destiny Collins. When the two met at the Woodbridge Invitational (Cross Country Classic), the sophomore Collins took third behind Baxter by 31-seconds.
Palisades’ junior Marissa Williams, who took second at Woodbridge (Baxter won in 15:57 and Williams finished in 16:20), is running the in the Girls Individual Sweepstakes while Baxter is with the US#7 Simi Valley in the Girls Team Sweepstakes.
The news gets better for the Simi Valley girls
With Baxter leading the way, Simi Valley should be able to have add a team title to their number one’s individual crown. On paper, their biggest threat from trying to capture the double is from a rising Capistrano Valley. The two schools have already met twice this season at Woodbridge and Clovis, with Simi Valley easily coming out on top on both occasions.
We do like that in both of those races, Capistrano Valley had a split of 31-seconds from their first to fifth finisher. That'll be huge in a race of this size and quality.
We also want to mention that though they’ve been “under the radar,” Great Oak should be one to watch. We’re fairly sure that their low rank this season is due to injuries, but if the squad is healthy, we expect for them to show up in a big way.
Remember - it was Great Oak who took the win over Simi Valley last year 38 to 59.
Other teams to watch will be Buchanan, Davis, St. Francis, and Arizona’s Xavier Prep.
There’s an big favorite in the Boys Team Sweepstakes, too
Arcadia High School returns to Mt. SAC to defend their team title from last year. Though they’re running like a squad that has "won two national titles since 2010," things are a bit different this fall with the whole coach Jim O’Brien situation.
It’ll be interesting to see how Arcadia fares from Mt. SAC until they make their very likely return to Portland Meadows. Looking past the whole coaching “debacle,” Arcadia still remains third in the Saucony Elite 50 national rankings.
Though California has three other teams ranked in the top 25, none of them will be in the Boys Team Sweeps race on Saturday. Looking down to the watch list and beyond, the battle for second will be among Dana Hills, Great Oak, and Warren.
Shout-out to Great Oak and coach Doug Soles for having both the boys and girls squads in the team title conversations.
Just like how we did an abbreviated preview for the Girl’s Individual Sweepstakes, we feel obligated to say something about who’s going to win the Boy’s Individual Sweeps.
Like we said preseason, if Blake Haney is healthy, he’s dangerous.
All season, Blake Haney has been the top prep in the country and continues to cut down any potential challengers. We really enjoy the fact that he’s not afraid to go head-to-head with some of the best, race early, and race often.
The boy's race at Stanford was pretty loaded.
After what we saw at the World Youth Championships where he finished fifth in the 1500m in 3:44.69 (which was the fastest ever 1500m by an American at World Youth, according to Rich Gonzalez at PrepCalTrack.com), we were blown away. He was our easy preseason pick to take an individual national title.
While Haney will be dominating the Boy’s Individual Sweeps, there’ll be a great race in the Boy's Team Sweeps between Arcadia’s Estavan De La Rosa and La Costa Canyon’s Steven Fahy. When the two met at the Stanford XC Invitational earlier this season, it was Fahy who would come out on top.
You can read more about Fahy’s rise from the watch list to the national rankings here. We don't want to discount De La Rosa as he's come up clutch in cross country a few times (NXN, Great Edinburgh, NACAC). Plus, we don't want to read too far into an early season invitational.
Tune in on Flotrack tomorrow (Saturday 10/26) at 7:15am to watch the Mt. SAC XC Invitational. If you learned anything from last year, it’s that you don’t want to miss history just because you didn’t set your alarm clock.
... really? They run two races at a time? Huh.
Well, you’d think that it’d be tough to pick out some clear winners with such deep fields, but as always, the cream rises to the top.
We’ll breakdown why the favorites in in the big races will prevail and give you some help to win free Brooks shoes from Running Warehouse.
Sarah Baxter can break 16:00, but she'll have to beat the heat
It’s the question everyone wants to see answered at Mt. SAC. After running arguably the most impressive individual cross country race in high school history, Sarah Baxter makes her triumphant return to Mt. SAC for a final time.
Let’s just recap last year. Baxter’s winning time of 16:00 broke the previous course record by 16-seconds. That's it. That’s the entire recap. You can watch the race here if you want to see fearless (she say’s that she runs scared so take your pick) running.
Back to the Baxter conundrum. First, here’s the one main reason for why she can break 16:00 at Mt. SAC.
She’s run faster on every course this year, except for the Clovis Invitational, which she did not run last year. A short comparison of her XC races from 2013 and 2012 is below.
Note: Unfortunately, Woodbridge was run on a different course this year, so the year to year comparison doesn't totally work.
| 2013 Races | 2012 Races |
| Calabasas at Simi Valley - 16:48.85 |
TBD |
| ASICS Clovis Invitational - 17:00 |
N/A |
| Westlake Triangular - 17:32.07 | Westlake Tri (Marmonte League Tri) - 17:46.63 |
| Woodbridge Cross Country Classic - 15:53 | Woodbridge Cross Country Classic - 16:12 |
If she’s already run faster on two courses, why aren’t we confident that she’ll run faster on the third?
It’s going to be hot on Saturday. According to Weather Underground, the high last year at Mt. SAC was 69 degrees. To be more specific, it was about 63 degrees at the start of Baxter’s ’12 race.
This year, the high is supposed to be 86 degrees. Though it could be 55 degrees at 8am on Saturday, once that Sun comes out, things are going to heat up.
Again, we think Baxter can break 16:00 at Mt. SAC, but may not because of the weather. Don’t count her out, though. After what we saw last year, the two-time NXN individual champion can do the near-impossible.
Baxter should win, but her biggest challenge will come from Great Oak’s Destiny Collins. When the two met at the Woodbridge Invitational (Cross Country Classic), the sophomore Collins took third behind Baxter by 31-seconds.
Palisades’ junior Marissa Williams, who took second at Woodbridge (Baxter won in 15:57 and Williams finished in 16:20), is running the in the Girls Individual Sweepstakes while Baxter is with the US#7 Simi Valley in the Girls Team Sweepstakes.
The news gets better for the Simi Valley girls
With Baxter leading the way, Simi Valley should be able to have add a team title to their number one’s individual crown. On paper, their biggest threat from trying to capture the double is from a rising Capistrano Valley. The two schools have already met twice this season at Woodbridge and Clovis, with Simi Valley easily coming out on top on both occasions.
We do like that in both of those races, Capistrano Valley had a split of 31-seconds from their first to fifth finisher. That'll be huge in a race of this size and quality.
We also want to mention that though they’ve been “under the radar,” Great Oak should be one to watch. We’re fairly sure that their low rank this season is due to injuries, but if the squad is healthy, we expect for them to show up in a big way.
Remember - it was Great Oak who took the win over Simi Valley last year 38 to 59.
Other teams to watch will be Buchanan, Davis, St. Francis, and Arizona’s Xavier Prep.
There’s an big favorite in the Boys Team Sweepstakes, too
Arcadia High School returns to Mt. SAC to defend their team title from last year. Though they’re running like a squad that has "won two national titles since 2010," things are a bit different this fall with the whole coach Jim O’Brien situation.
It’ll be interesting to see how Arcadia fares from Mt. SAC until they make their very likely return to Portland Meadows. Looking past the whole coaching “debacle,” Arcadia still remains third in the Saucony Elite 50 national rankings.
Though California has three other teams ranked in the top 25, none of them will be in the Boys Team Sweeps race on Saturday. Looking down to the watch list and beyond, the battle for second will be among Dana Hills, Great Oak, and Warren.
Shout-out to Great Oak and coach Doug Soles for having both the boys and girls squads in the team title conversations.
Just like how we did an abbreviated preview for the Girl’s Individual Sweepstakes, we feel obligated to say something about who’s going to win the Boy’s Individual Sweeps.
Like we said preseason, if Blake Haney is healthy, he’s dangerous.
All season, Blake Haney has been the top prep in the country and continues to cut down any potential challengers. We really enjoy the fact that he’s not afraid to go head-to-head with some of the best, race early, and race often.
The boy's race at Stanford was pretty loaded.
After what we saw at the World Youth Championships where he finished fifth in the 1500m in 3:44.69 (which was the fastest ever 1500m by an American at World Youth, according to Rich Gonzalez at PrepCalTrack.com), we were blown away. He was our easy preseason pick to take an individual national title.
While Haney will be dominating the Boy’s Individual Sweeps, there’ll be a great race in the Boy's Team Sweeps between Arcadia’s Estavan De La Rosa and La Costa Canyon’s Steven Fahy. When the two met at the Stanford XC Invitational earlier this season, it was Fahy who would come out on top.
You can read more about Fahy’s rise from the watch list to the national rankings here. We don't want to discount De La Rosa as he's come up clutch in cross country a few times (NXN, Great Edinburgh, NACAC). Plus, we don't want to read too far into an early season invitational.
Tune in on Flotrack tomorrow (Saturday 10/26) at 7:15am to watch the Mt. SAC XC Invitational. If you learned anything from last year, it’s that you don’t want to miss history just because you didn’t set your alarm clock.