Big XII Cross Country Championships 2013Oct 31, 2013 by Ryan Sterner
Men's Big 12 Preview: Big 12? More like the Big Easy
Men's Big 12 Preview: Big 12? More like the Big Easy
Predicting the Big 12 Cross Country Championship this year is like trying to hit the broadside of a barn with my van: easy. Barring the earth opening up and swallowing half of the constituents of the Big 12, there aren’t going to be any curveballs in Waco, Tex. come Saturday morning.
Individual: Kennedy Kithuka, then everyone else.
In 2012, Kennedy Kithuka could have listened to the gun go off, sat cross legged on the starting line for a full minute, watched every runner disappear over the hills, and he still would have won by nearly 10-seconds. And that’s not to say he was racing in a bush league meet--the 2nd place finisher was eventual 5th place finisher at NCAAs, Girma Mecheso.
This year will be no different. The only way Kithuka loses is if he decides to be nice and lets someone else win.
Though no one will challenge the defending NCAA champ, the race for second will be interesting. Craig Lutz, who was 3rd in the 10k last outdoor season, could possibly snag the runner-up spot, breaking up OSU’s top five. At his two previous Big 12 champs Lutz was 9th and 4th. He is currently coming off of a 23:36 performance at Wisconsin, where he nearly took down thirteen minute man, Lawi Lalang (but so did everyone else).
Also throwing his hat into the ring is #27 Oklahoma’s Abbabiya Simbassa. He ran 23:41 at Pre-Nats, which was good enough for 12th, but still 49-seconds behind Kithuka. But combine his Pre-Nats race and his 5th place finish at Roy Griak, and you've got a runner that could earn the red ribbon.
The only other person--aside from any of OSU's top 5, which we’ll be talking about shortly--that could challenge for a the runner-up spot is Texas’ Ryan Dohner. In 2012, Dohner was 6th at Big 12s and 19th at NCAAs. This year at Wisconsin he underperformed slightly, only running 23:57, which was good enough for 44th place. If he pulls it together, Lutz and Dohner provide a nice 1-2 punch for Texas.
Conclusion: Kithuka by a mile.
Team battle: OSU, OSU, OSU
Now I know we just talked about how a few people that could vie for the runner-up spot, but in all reality it’s going to be tough to take down OSU.
The defending national champions return five of their top seven from the 2012 squad, but have yet to run the full lineup this season. If they run 100% there’s no reason that they couldn’t near-perfect score the race going 2-3-4-5-6, which is what they’ve done almost every year since they started their streak of five Big 12 titles.
Shadrack Kipchirchir should be Cowboys' No. 1, but Tom Farrell, Shane Moskowitz, Kirubel Erassa, or Joseph Manilafasha could all easily be interchanged.
Shadrack Kipchirchir should be Cowboys' No. 1, but Tom Farrell, Shane Moskowitz, Kirubel Erassa, or Joseph Manilafasha could all easily be interchanged.
As a team they haven’t lost since 2008, and the most points they’ve scored at this meet is 30. Last year, if Mecheso hadn't run, OSU still would have scored 38 points, and still would have bested Texas by 18 points.
Outside of OSU, there is #27 Oklahoma, and #29 Texas, who are fairly evenly matched.
Texas is fielding a fairly unknown team outside of Dohner and Lutz. The only notable race that the Longhorns have ran this year was Wisconsin, where they finished mid-pack as a team, 18th out of 35.
Oklahoma has their own 1-2 punch in Simbassa and Brandon Doughty. Doughty--who finished 13th at Roy Griak but a distant 72nd at Pre Nats--is a sophomore, and was 27th at Big 12s as a freshman. If he can bounce back from his disappointing finish in Terre Haute, he and Simbassa could lead the Sooners past Texas for the runner up spot.
But, really, it’s anyone’s game.
Conclusion: 1. OSU (by a lot) 2. Texas or Oklahoma
Note: These projections are mainly based on the results from Wisconsin and Pre-Nationals, except for Oklahoma State, whose projections are based on the Chile Pepper Invitational. We don't think OSU will score that many points (33), but we didn't want to start changing positions to reflect our personal beliefs. Even when we left it as is, which meant it was basically scored as OSU from early October vs. Everyone from the two biggest invitationals of the year, the Cowboys still dominated.
| Individual Projections | Team Projections |
Place Name School 1 Kennedy Kithuka Texas Tech 2 Craig Lutz Texas 3 Kirubel Erassa Oklahoma State 4 Shadrack Kipchirchir Oklahoma State 5 Abbabiya Simbassa Oklahoma 6 Thomas Farrell Oklahoma State 7 Ryan Dohner Texas 8 Joseph Manilafasha Oklahoma State 9 Ezekiel Kissorio Texas Tech 10 Reid Buchanan Kansas 11 Evan Landes Kansas 12 Brian Gohlke Oklahoma State 13 Taylor Monaghan Oklahoma State 14 Chris Galvin Texas 15 Marcos Vallejo Texas Tech 16 Josh Munsch Kansas 17 Brandon Doughty Oklahoma 18 Eric Graf Oklahoma 19 Patrick Gomez Oklahoma 20 Mark Pinales Texas 21 Austin Roth Texas 22 Dan Schubert Oklahoma 23 Will Nation Texas 24 Mohamed Hrezi Iowa State University 25 Martin Coolidge Iowa State University 26 Brady Turnbull Texas 27 Eduardo Rodriguez Texas 28 Alex Dillenbeck Iowa State University 29 Alex Deir Oklahoma 30 James Wilson Kansas 31 Collin Smith Texas 32 Brian Llamas Iowa State University 33 Brad Miles Baylor 34 Matt Cochran Baylor 35 Kyle Polman Oklahoma 36 Tyler Yunk Kansas 37 Tyler Jermann Iowa State University 38 Nick Rivera Texas Tech 39 Jonathan Tijerina Baylor 40 Kyle Scanlan Baylor 41 Alexandre Lavigne Kansas 42 J R Hardy Baylor 43 Stephen Saylor Iowa State University 44 Derwin Graham Baylor 45 Brendan Soucie Kansas 46 Nick Schulze Iowa State University 47 Bachman, Jeffrey Kansas State 48 Koch, Lukas Kansas State 49 Steve Dado Iowa State University 50 Hershner, Ryan Kansas State 51 Taylor Moult T.C.U. 52 Brendan Devlin Texas Tech 53 Daniel Wedell Texas Tech 54 Jonathon Lira Texas Tech 55 Chris McElroy Baylor 56 Luis Cuenca T.C.U. 57 Smith, Logan Kansas State 58 Bachman, Brett Kansas State 59 Jake Rossmango T.C.U. 60 Ryan Dykstra T.C.U. 61 Greg May T.C.U 62 Ellis, Kain Kansas State 63 Ryan Spetnagel T.C.U. 64 Shane Murray T.C.U. 65 Roman, Fernando Kansas State |
Place School Points 1 Oklahoma State 33 2 Texas 64 3 Oklahoma 81 4 Kansas 103 5 Texas Tech 115 6 Iowa State 146 7 Baylor 188 8 Kansas State 260 9 T.C.U 287 |