Nike Cross Nationals NXN 2013Dec 3, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
NXN Girls Team Preview: FM and four teams that could end the streak at seven
NXN Girls Team Preview: FM and four teams that could end the streak at seven
There’s a reason some of us saved our mud crusted boots from the NCAA Cross Country National Championships. Before we could give those shoes a proper viking funeral for their valiant efforts in the face of miserable (for the runners) and exciting (for the the spectators) conditions, we bought some Ziploc bags and stored them for one last hurrah.
It’s time for Nike Cross Nationals, so make sure to bring a pair of shoes to Portland that you don’t mind losing. It’ll be worth it.
There’s some dichotomy in the girls team race, too. I’m talking about the Fayetteville-Manlius girls.
The running fan in me loves to watch them run. They’re, like, really good. Like seven national championships in a row good. I don’t need to spell it out because I did that last year and they ended up winning by a silly 144 points.
But in the narrative-driven world of high school cross country, wouldn’t it be something if FM lost? If you would have asked us at the beginning of the season, that question wouldn’t have even been on the table. It’d still be on the shelves at the grocery store.
Then our two worlds began to collide. At the McQuaid Invitational, the Unionville girls made the trip from Pennsylvania to Rochester and beat FM handily, 45 to 79. The headline for that week’s Saucony Elite 50 read: Could this be the year that FM's reign comes to an end?
But the savvy “Stotans” wouldn’t think much of losing a meet in late September. The goal is and always has been December. Still, a little revenge early season would have been nice. Rather than duck each other, FM and Unionville squared off the next week at the famed Manhattan Invitational and things were much closer. The ladies from PA took the narrow win 89 to 92, which meant that maybe, just maybe, another team would lift the NXN trophy for the first time in a while.
Then the post-season started up, which meant that FM would slowly start to shift into top gear. Successive big wins at their Sectional Champion, the New York State Championship, and the NXN NY Regional showed us that the story of last seven years was getting yet another reboot.
So we ask: Can anybody spoil FM’s bid for an eighth consecutive team title?
We’ll give you an in-depth look at the four teams that could possibly knock off the defending champions, plus somepicks that should be fighting for a spot on the podium.
#1 - Fayetteville-Manlius (NY)
FM's top three from NXN NY - Annika Avery, Alana Pearl, and Jenna Farrell - are the three returners from last year's squad. Also, see above.
#2 - Great Oak (CA)
This is the second year in a row I’m predicting Great Oak to take second. Last year, the gamble totally paid off and they finished second... plus fourteen spots. Close enough.
I know what you’re thinking. “It’s because Californians can’t run in the mud AMIRITE?!” Yes, the occasional Californian struggles in the harsh Pacific Northwest (except for one girl, apparently).
Regional conditions aside, Great Oak is coming into historic form. After some early season struggles due to injuries, Great Oak has rallied in recent weeks, capped off by their #2 all-time team average at Woodward Park.
How’s their confidence as they head back to Portland Meadows? Pretty high.
Up front, they have the gutsy sophomore Destiny Collins followed by senior Haley Dorris, who’s one of the best #2 girls in the country. Add in a now healthy Ashley Helbig and Maiya Larsen, who were both absent from early season meets, plus a solid Deriree Stinger, and this team could break both the Cali perception and the FM streak.
#3 - Carmel (IN)
If you’re wary about choosing a team from California team to upset the “Stotans,” then perhaps a tough team from the Midwest is more of your jam.
Over the last three years, Carmel has had a nice progression of finishes. They were 7th in 2010, 5th in 2011, and 3rd in 2012. If they want to really be linear and follow the trend, then a 1st place finish is on the horizon.
The team has four returners from last year, so like Great Oak, they know what to expect. Interesting note: Last year, they had the Schmitz sisters. This year, they have two Harris ladies.
Though they have a solid squad who have been changing spots in the depth chart this fall, it’s their #1 that’s been red hot. After finishing fourth at NXN Midwest, senior Kelcy Welch surprised even herself with a win at Foot Locker Midwest. A low-stick is always valuable at any championship.
#4 - Wayzata (MN)
There’s really only one way to introduce this year - their “Call Me Maybe” parody. It’s funny what tidbits of information we remember from ’12 NXN.
What we do remember is that the Wayzata squad came up big to finish 7th overall. To compound that, we looked back at our notes from last year and just had “18th?” scribbled next to their projected finish.
Wayzata potentially returns six girls from last year, which is huge for an already strong team. But before you jump on this bandwagon, let us say that there’s an emphasis on the word “potentially.”
After finishing second at Roy Griak, senior and #1 returner Anna French has been conspicuously absent from the team. She seldom ran prior to the team’s postseason and even though she was the team’s #3 at the Minnesota State XC Championship (which was 4k?), the team ran as a pack and had a 7-second spread from #1 - 7.
French then skipped out on NXN Heartland and ran Foot Locker Midwest, where she finished 33rd.
Here’s what probably happened. The NXN Regional was on 11/10 and FL Midwest was 11/30. French has probably picked up some sort of injury or illness, which was why was she was held out from a meet (NXN Heartland) where the goal was just to qualify. She got one hard effort in before NXN, which was the Foot Locker qualifier.
If French can recover, then Wayzata may surprise again. Oddly enough, she’s not alone in this category of “sickly athletes who can really help their team” category.
#5 - Unionville (PA)
Unionville has already gone toe-to-toe with FM twice this year and came away with two wins. You already know that.
What you may not know if that their #3 (at McQuad) slash #5 (at Manhattan) girl Emily Fisher picked up a little illness called mononucleosis prior to the Pennsylvania State Meet.
Let me just say is that I’ve known a few runners who contracted mono mid-season and they couldn’t make it from their bed to the bathroom, so props to Fisher for not only continuing her season, but being Unionville’s #5 at NXN Northeast.
Though she was much closer to the team’s #6 than #4, if Fisher can make it back up the depth chart, Unionville could again challenge FM.
Other than what could possibly help Unionville, the team is very solid on paper. Not to copy and paste the same theme from Wayzata, but Unionville has an incredible low-stick in Courtney Smith. The Harvard University commit was third at Manhattan, second at PA States, and first at NXN Northeast.
Before we end with our predictions, we want to give a very quick mention to some other teams who could easily make their way onto the podium.
Before we end with our predictions, we want to give a very quick mention to some other teams who could easily make their way onto the podium.
Other Teams to Watch: Davis from Utah and Davis Senior from California, Colorado’s two entries of Fort Collins (who beat Davis by a point at NXN Southwest) and Monarch, and Bozeman from Montana.
Final Prediction: FM is still the favorite and to be frank, I’m kind of sick of it. I guess that’s both an insult and compliment to their utter dominance over the years. Though Carmel is solid, I think Great Oak is really going to make a run for it. Expect the team scores to be much closer than last year's blowout. That's all dependent if Great Oak can finally break the California stereotype.
Then again, Fayetteville-Manlius is Fayetteville-Manlius. It's hard to bet against them because all they do is win national championships. This is also a final reminder to bring your boots.
Then again, Fayetteville-Manlius is Fayetteville-Manlius. It's hard to bet against them because all they do is win national championships. This is also a final reminder to bring your boots.