Foot Locker XC Championships 2013Dec 12, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
Girls Foot Locker Championship Preview
Girls Foot Locker Championship Preview
We’re going to switch up the role for our Girls Foot Locker Championship preview. This time, we’re going to start the conversation with our predictions and Jarred Cornfield is going to give his analysis. But before we start, we have some neat Foot Locker statistics for you.
The Cornfield Calculator and Foot Locker Regional History
With that in mind, here are our predictions for who finish in the top 15 and become an all-American at this Saturday’s Foot Locker Championship.
The Cornfield Calculator and Foot Locker Regional History
In the last five years, here's how those that have placed in the top 10 at the national meet fared at their regional championship:
- 60% were 1-3 at regionals
- 78% were 1-4
- 86% were 1-5
- And 7-10 have a 6% chance of top 10
With that in mind, here are our predictions for who finish in the top 15 and become an all-American at this Saturday’s Foot Locker Championship.
1. Makena Morley (Bigfork, MT) - West (US#7)
The first of our big pre-race favorites. If fast marks aren't enough to convince you, how about the fact that she pushed NXN champion Alexa Efraimson all the way to the finish at NXN Northwest.
The first of our big pre-race favorites. If fast marks aren't enough to convince you, how about the fact that she pushed NXN champion Alexa Efraimson all the way to the finish at NXN Northwest.
A nice little added tidbit is that Morley ran 18:13.10 last year at the Montana State Meet and then took 24th at Foot Locker. Pretty solid, right?
This year in Missoula, MT, she dropped a little time and clocked a silly 16:35.31. We'll go out on a limb here and say that she's better entering Foot Locker this year than last year.
Not bold enough of a prediction? She's in it to win it.
Cornfield's Note: Morley also qualified for Foot Locker her freshman year when she finished 9th at the national meet. In her post regional interview, she said that her goal was to win this weekend and that she will be in contention. She composes herself like a veteran and after only losing once this season to only Alexa Efraimson (by just 9-seconds) plus a dominating 20-second victory at Foot Locker West, I have to agree that she is the favorite for this weekend…but not by too much!
Cornfield's Note: Morley also qualified for Foot Locker her freshman year when she finished 9th at the national meet. In her post regional interview, she said that her goal was to win this weekend and that she will be in contention. She composes herself like a veteran and after only losing once this season to only Alexa Efraimson (by just 9-seconds) plus a dominating 20-second victory at Foot Locker West, I have to agree that she is the favorite for this weekend…but not by too much!
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| Mike Reymonds Time Trial | 1 | 17:00.66 |
| Mountain West Classic | 1 | 16:43.42 |
| Capital City 7 on 7 | 1 | 17:00.60 |
| Montana State Championships (B/C) | 1 | 16:35.31 |
| NXN Northwest Regional | 2 | 17:36.00 |
| Foot Locker West Regional | 1 | 18:05.70 |
2. Tessa Barrett (Abington Heights, PA) - Northeast (US#4)
Want to get to know Barrett? Milesplit has an awesome PennTrackXC journal entry, where Barrett discusses everything from her summer training to fulfilling the dream of qualifying for Foot Locker.
Here's what we liked:
1) This time last year, she was on crutches.
2) She's never been to the West Coast
3) She's a self-described running nerd
Hopefully Barrett hasn't woken up from her dream just yet as she still has one more race to go. We've had the Pennsylvania faithful emailing us all week giving her some hype. It's well deserved, too.
A big win at Pennsylvania State and Foot Locker Northeast makes her another one of our big favorites.
If it's any added bonus, if Barrett does win, then my college teammate and Abington Heights alumnus (Barrett's high school) can die happy or at least never shut up about Pennsylvania's state supremacy.
Cornfield's Note: I also have a Pennsylvania roommate who claims PA supremacy, but I do have to say that she is a co-favorite and should be right up front ready to go for a win. Also, please go read her journal entries. They are well written, interesting, and give a great inside of a high level (and fun) high school athlete.
Cornfield's Note: I also have a Pennsylvania roommate who claims PA supremacy, but I do have to say that she is a co-favorite and should be right up front ready to go for a win. Also, please go read her journal entries. They are well written, interesting, and give a great inside of a high level (and fun) high school athlete.
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| Cliff Robbins Invitational | 1 | 17:26.00 |
| PIAA Foundation Invitational | 1 | 17:48.00 |
| PIAA District 2 AAA Championships | 1 | 17:49.00 |
| PA AAA State Meet | 1 | 17:30.00 |
| Foot Locker Northeast Regional | 1 | 17:32.30 |
A big wildcard with a big win under her belt. Shehadeh, who attends the prestigious and private Phillips Andover Academy, cannot compete in public cross country races. So other than her second place finish at Foot Locker Northeast, we don't know too much about her.
But really, that's all we need to know. Two weeks ago at Van Cortland Park, Shehadeh finished third at FL Northeast. While we'd really love to use more races in our predictions, we'll take her won win over plenty of Northeasters, who are listed below.
Cornfield's Note: You can’t figure this girl out? Neither can I! But interestingly, she qualified for Foot Locker last year (when she ran in NY), was 5th at Northeast and then was a DNF at nationals. Why? I don’t know. Last year she ran 18:15 at Van Cortlandt to qualify. This year she ran 17:37 right behind Barrett. What will she do this weekend? I don’t know!!! A big surprise upset??
| Season Results |
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|
| Meet | Place | Time |
| Codfish Bowl | 1 | 18:14.00 |
| Foot Locker Northeast | 2 | 17:37.30 |
4. Taylor Werner (Ste. Genevieve, MO) - Midwest (US#5)
This fall, the super sophomore has collected a bunch of course records, a state title, and just ran an amazing race at NXN to finish 5th.
As a freshman, she qualified for both national championships, ended up "just" running Foot Locker, and finished 13th in San Diego, CA. This year, she's decided to add NXN to her post-season schedule. While you could argue that she might be tired from Portland Meadows or the fact that she finished fourth at the Foot Locker Midwest Regional, we'll say that she's in darn fine form and should near the front this Saturday (sans cold gear).
Cornfield's Note: Werner has run a ton of races this year. But she has been fantastic, with her only times not losing being at NXN Nationals (5th) and Foot Locker Midwest (4th). To put a top 5 Foot Locker finish on top of her season would be extremely impressive.
Cornfield's Note: Werner has run a ton of races this year. But she has been fantastic, with her only times not losing being at NXN Nationals (5th) and Foot Locker Midwest (4th). To put a top 5 Foot Locker finish on top of her season would be extremely impressive.
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| Forest Park XC Festival | 1 | 16:47.20 |
| Hancock Invitational | 1 | 17:43.19 |
| Jefferson City Invitational | 1 | 17:25.01 |
| MO Class District 1 | 1 | 17:56.35 |
| MO Class 3 State Meet | 1 | 17:31.30 |
| NXN Midwest Regional | 1 | 18:36.20 |
| Foot Locker Midwest Regional | 4 | 17:46.00 |
| NXN Championships | 5 | 17:34.00 |
5. Hannah DeBalsi - (Staples, CT) - Northeast (US#8)
The second super sophomore finished third at Foot Locker Northeast, but there are two other races that we'd like to bring to your attention.
The first would be her early season win at the 33rd Stratton Brook XC Invite, where she won by 1:57. That's domination in every sense of the word.
The second would be her impressive win at the New England Championships, where she easily dispatched of Champlain Valley Union's Autumn Eastman (who would go on to finish 16th at NXN).
Cornfield's Note: Can the Northeast get 3 girls in the top 5 this year after only having 1 in the top 10 last year? It’s very possible! Not only did DeBalsi “dispatch” of all her competitors at the New England Championships, she crushed them winning by 20-seconds at the highly competitive meet.
Cornfield's Note: Can the Northeast get 3 girls in the top 5 this year after only having 1 in the top 10 last year? It’s very possible! Not only did DeBalsi “dispatch” of all her competitors at the New England Championships, she crushed them winning by 20-seconds at the highly competitive meet.
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| 33rd Stratton Brook XC Invite | 1 | 17:35.99 |
| Wickham Park Invitational | 1 | 17:44.00 |
| FCIAC Championships | 1 | 13:29.00 |
| CT Open State Meet | 1 | 17:44.00 |
| New England Championships | 1 | 17:15.80 |
| Foot Locker Northeast Regional | 3 | 17:39.40 |
6. Caroline Alcorta - (West Springfield, VA) - South (US#6)
The Foot Locker South Regional champion has been solid all year. Although we'll laud another Foot Locker finalist who ran the adidas XC Challenge (below), Alcorta threw down in the high school race to establish herself as an early season contender.
We've now reached the end of the season and she's still atop our list. A sub-17 clocking at the regional championship shows that she's not only able to mix it up with the best, but has the credentials to back it up.
Cornfield's Note: I actually think that Alcorta is underrated here. I would put her as a top 5 pick! She ran away from the field at Footlocker South and I would like to see her make sure she stays with the lead group tomorrow. With a fairly wide open title to be claimed, she could be another surprise winner.
Cornfield's Note: I actually think that Alcorta is underrated here. I would put her as a top 5 pick! She ran away from the field at Footlocker South and I would like to see her make sure she stays with the lead group tomorrow. With a fairly wide open title to be claimed, she could be another surprise winner.
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| adidas XC Challenge | 1 | 17:18.70 |
| Hagen Stone Park Classic | 1 | 17:41.10 |
| Third Battle Invitational | 1 | 17:10.40 |
| VA Class 6A State Meet | 1 | 17:13.00 |
| Foot Locker South Regional | 1 | 16:55.00 |
7. Stephanie Jenks - (Linn-Mar, IA) - Midwest (US#13)
The last of our super sophomores and perhaps our boldest pick. Since I've given much love to the Northeast, I'll throw another Midwesterner in the mix because Alex Lohr will be upset other (sorry, South and West).
If you're unaware, Stephanie Jenks concentrates on triathlons and is another national finalist who doesn't compete in the public cross country realm.
In the race that made Alexa Efraimson the real-deal-Holyfield, Jenks finished 7th (16:57) against some of the top runners in the NCAA at Bill Dellinger. For a little comparison, Efraimson won in 16:35. Though Jenks was a long way away, she did hang with Washington's Katie Flood, Oregon's Megan Patrignelli, and Portland's Laura Hottenrott.
If throwing down with some top collegians isn't your jam, then Jenks finished a narrow second to Kelcy Welch (who just took 16th at NXN) at Foot Locker Midwest.
Cornfield's Note: There was a back-to-back Foot Locker champion who so happened to be a triathlete, he was pretty good! Jenks is good, but I would have placed her closer to 10th probably.
Cornfield's Note: There was a back-to-back Foot Locker champion who so happened to be a triathlete, he was pretty good! Jenks is good, but I would have placed her closer to 10th probably.
| Season Results |
|
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| adidas XC Challenge (open race) | 3 | 17:31.00 |
| Bill Dellinger Invitational (college race) | 7 | 16:57.00 |
| Foot Locker Midwest Regional | 2 | 17:39.00 |
8. Briana Gess (Haddonfield, NJ) - Northeast (US#17)
We're always wary of putting freshmen in the top 10, but hey, why not. Gess' freshman campaign has been incredible and we look forward to some awesome stuff from her in years to come. While her Foot Locker Northeast Regional race was probably her best performance on paper, we'll say that her big run at the Manhattan Invitational is a close second in terms of us raising our eyebrows.
Although she might not know what to expect from competing on the national stage, that actually might be a benefit rather than a hindrance.
Cornfield's Note: I am also excited for and a fan of this freshman. Having run the 2.5 mile Manhattan Invite course, I know how impressive her run was in a race where she was all alone. She is one of just 3 freshman in the field along with Gabriella Karas (below) and my alma mater Corning's Jessica Lawson (who I wish the best of luck to)! Gess is ready for a big race!
Cornfield's Note: I am also excited for and a fan of this freshman. Having run the 2.5 mile Manhattan Invite course, I know how impressive her run was in a race where she was all alone. She is one of just 3 freshman in the field along with Gabriella Karas (below) and my alma mater Corning's Jessica Lawson (who I wish the best of luck to)! Gess is ready for a big race!
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| Shore Coaches Invitational | 1 | 18:36.00 |
| Colonial Conference Meet | 1 | 17:55.00 |
| Colonial Conference Championships | 1 | 16:57.00 |
| South Sectional Championships | 1 | 18:04.37 |
| NJSIAA Groups Championships | 1 | 18:16.00 |
| NJ Meet of Champions | 1 | 17:45.00 |
| Foot Locker Northeast Regional | 5 | 17:43.20 |
9. Gabriella Karas (Martha Layne Collins, KY) - South
We might as well keep this freshmen talk going. Karas hasn't run too many high profile races this season, although she did compete in the meet that may have the best name ever - The Rumble Through The Jungle.
If you don't count her win at the Kentucky State Meet as "big," then take her fourth place finish at Foot Locker South into account. While Gess has a few races that we can use to base our predictions, Karas has just a few performances in her short high school career that we can call upon in our analysis.
Still, one race is enough for us to put a second freshman in the top 10.
Cornfield's Note: I had Karas at 11-15 but she certainly could make a top 10 appearance! Also I agree, Rumble Through The Jungle is an awesome name for a meet, we need more creative meets!
Cornfield's Note: I had Karas at 11-15 but she certainly could make a top 10 appearance! Also I agree, Rumble Through The Jungle is an awesome name for a meet, we need more creative meets!
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| Rumble Through The Jungle | 1 | 18:27.88 |
| KY Class 2A Region 3 | 1 | 17:34.32 |
| KY 2A XC Championships | 1 | 17:39.04 |
| Foot Locker South Regional | 4 | 17:07.00 |
10. Brianna Schwartz (Shaler Area, PA) - Northeast (US#15)
Schwartz nipping Gess at FL NE
Fifth at Pennsylvania States and then fourth at Foot Locker Northeast? Schwartz is riding the wave.
Like Karas, there's nothing other than her big run at her Foot Locker Regional that we can use as a viable talking point. But we're all about making picks based on form and Schwartz is atop her game right now.
We originally had Schwartz beating Gess again, but wanted to go against the grain here. Still, a top 10 finish is forseeable.
Cornfield's Note: I had Schwartz a little lower in my projections. I'm not sure what she will be able to do at this meet after having an up and down year I see her grabbing a spot closer to 14 or 15.
We originally had Schwartz beating Gess again, but wanted to go against the grain here. Still, a top 10 finish is forseeable.
Cornfield's Note: I had Schwartz a little lower in my projections. I'm not sure what she will be able to do at this meet after having an up and down year I see her grabbing a spot closer to 14 or 15.
| Season Results |
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|
| Meet | Place | Time |
| Pittsburgh Central Catholic Invitational | 1 | 17:54.20 |
| Tri-State Coaches Association | 1 | 18:31.00 |
| PIAA District 7 WPIAL Championships | 1 | 17:52.00 |
| PIAA State Championships | 5 | 18:36.00 |
| Foot Locker Northeast | 4 | 17:42.80 |
11. Kelcy Welch (Carmel, IN) - Midwest
We're just going to put what we had in our Girls NXN Team Preview here, verbatim: "After finished fourth at NXN Midwest, senior Kelcy Welch surprised even herself with a win at Foot Locker Midwest."
The surprises (for her at least) kept coming as Welch placed 14th at NXN. Although the field isn't as top-heavy at Foot Locker compared to NXN, it is deeper. If Welch can carry her momentum from a big individual performance in Portland, then she'll be looking at a top 10 finish in San Diego. If she's tired from a long season, then top 15-ish seems more realistic.
That being said, it looks like her best races have come at the end of the season compared to any invitational she ran earlier this season. Whether she has tired legs or not, she's on a roll and will be fighting for another all-American spot.
Cornfield's Note: Welch is one of my dark horses; this girl is a beast. She has had a great season and her victory at Foot Locker Midwest shows me that she can get after it. I'm looking for her to post a top 10 result.
Cornfield's Note: Welch is one of my dark horses; this girl is a beast. She has had a great season and her victory at Foot Locker Midwest shows me that she can get after it. I'm looking for her to post a top 10 result.
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| Eagle Classic | 2 | 17:57.10 |
| Trinity Valkyrie Invitational | 2 | 17:49.30 |
| Culver Academies Invitational | 1 | 17:53.90 |
| IN Brebeuf Regional | 1 | 18:01.50 |
| IN Carmel Semi-State | 1 | 17:35.70 |
| IN State Meet | 1 | 17:53.90 |
| NXN Midwest Regional | 4 | 18:48.60 |
| Foot Locker Midwest Regional | 1 | 17:34.00 |
| NXN Championships | 14 |
17:55.10 |
12. Anna Maxwell (San Lorenzo Valley, CA) - West (US#9)
The more we finalize these picks, the more we realize how they're pretty bold. To completely ignore the sentence in Schwartz' section about form, we'll say that Maxwell is poised to bounce back from a subpar Foot Locker West Regional, where she placed seventh.
We've been at three of her meets this year - Stanford, Mt. SAC, CIF CA States - and she's impressed every time out. She'll want to end her "dream season" on a good note at Foot Locker.
To give a little perspective, Maxwell soloed a 17:08 to win her section at California States while Sarah Baxter ran a near-course record of 16:43 in her section.
Cornfield's Note: I agree spot on with this projection. Yes, she did not have a top showing at Foot Locker West, but her state meet shows how talented she is especially running in the always loaded state of California.
Cornfield's Note: I agree spot on with this projection. Yes, she did not have a top showing at Foot Locker West, but her state meet shows how talented she is especially running in the always loaded state of California.
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| Earlybird Invitational | 1 | 17:23.00 |
| Stanford Invitational | 1 | 17:22.00 |
| Mt. SAC Invitational | 1 | 16:56.00 |
| CIF CA State Championships | 1 | 17:08.00 |
| Foot Locker West Regional | 7 | 19:13.00 |
13. Sarah Feeny (Odgen, UT) - West
We would really like to take a look at the training logs from some of the top preps in Utah. Since their state championship is so early, we wonder how they map out their season plan.
The Utah 4A state champion ran both the NXN and Foot Locker Regionals, placing seventh and second respectively. Feeny opted for Foot Locker instead of the cold Portland Meadows, which will hopefully save her legs from an already long season.
Cornfield's Note: The Utah schedule also confuses me, but Freeny is very good. Her skipping out on NXN indicates she has put all her eggs into the Foot Locket basket. She could push for a top 10 spot, but 13th is a good placement for projecting!
Cornfield's Note: The Utah schedule also confuses me, but Freeny is very good. Her skipping out on NXN indicates she has put all her eggs into the Foot Locket basket. She could push for a top 10 spot, but 13th is a good placement for projecting!
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| Highland Invitational | 1 | 16:53.00 |
| Murray Invitational | 1 | 17:41.60 |
| Bob Firman Invitational | 2 | 18:10.30 |
| Ogden-Weber City County | 1 | 17:53.90 |
| UT Region 5 Championship | 1 | 17:00.60 |
| UT 4A State Meet | 1 | 17:25.00 |
| NXN Southwest Regional | 7 | 17:49.49 |
| Foot Locker West Regional | 2 | 18:25.50 |
14. Amelia Paladino (University High, WV) - South (US#25)
Not to talk too much about my roommates, but my current roommate is from West Virginia and has talked to me about Paladino. We took notice of the Mountain Stater after her win at the Spiked Shoe Invitational, but her big performance is definitely her runner-up at the South Regional.
Paladino wasn't too far behind the champion Alcorta (above) and should be in the mix among the front pack this Saturday.
If nothing else, here's Country Roads.
Cornfield's Note: We have perhaps been gravely underestimating the runners from the South. Will Paladino surprise and help the South score well as a team?
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| Carlisle Invitational | 2 | 17:58.00 |
| Spiked Shoe Invitational | 1 | 17:38.00 |
| Cal Pokas OVAC Championship | 1 | 17:36.62 |
| WV AAA State Meet | 1 | 17:55.84 |
| Foot Locker South Regional | 2 | 17:04.00 |
15. Lucy Biles (Herriman, UT) - West (US#12)
Another Utahn who's had a long a season (but it's not over yet). Biles had a good run of form back in September, where she took the win at the Bob Firman Invitational. Although she beat her fellow Utahn Feeny back in September, Feeny would take the win over Biles at Foot Locker West. Still, a third place finish at the last regional isn't anything to scoff at.
Plus, Biles is another Foot Locker Finalist who ran an NXN Regional, but opted to compete at Balboa Park. If a third place finish at FL West doesn't push her into your top 15, then what about a second place finish at NXN Southwest?
Cornfield's Note: Utah has produced some great runners on both the boys and girls side. I'm not sure why they run so many 3 mile races or have such an early state meet, but they are qualifying for this meet and look to go home with a few All-Americans.
Cornfield's Note: Utah has produced some great runners on both the boys and girls side. I'm not sure why they run so many 3 mile races or have such an early state meet, but they are qualifying for this meet and look to go home with a few All-Americans.
| Season Results |
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| Meet | Place | Time |
| Highland Invitational | 2 | 17:33.10 |
| Region IV Pre-Regionals | 1 | 17:25.00 |
| Aggie Cross Country Invitational | 1 | 19:21.85 |
| Bob Firman Invitational | 1 | 17:57.40 |
| Nebo Invite | 1 | 117:08.40 |
| UT Region 4 Championships | 1 | 16:53.30 |
| UT 5A State Meet | 1 | 17:41.90 |
| NXN Southwest Regional | 2 | 17:36.70 |
| Foot Locker West Regional | 3 | 18:55.50 |