NCAA Division I Track and Field Championships 2014Jun 8, 2014 by FloTrack Staff
NCAA Champs Men's 5K preview
NCAA Champs Men's 5K preview
In a matter of days, one of the greatest championships in sports will be upon us. No, it’s not the World Cup. The NCAA Track and Field Championships are coming to back to Eugene, OR and the eyes distance running fans from around the of the world will be carefully watching the Men’s 5,000-meters.
As far as championship finals go, this one has the making to be one of the best races in quite some time, if not all-time, so it’s worthwhile paying attention.
There are a total of 24 men on the start list, but we’re going to focus on the Big Three for now: Texas Tech’s Kennedy Kithuka, Arizona’s Lawi Lalang, and Oregon’s Edward Cheserek.
While last three NCAA Cross Country Champions have never previously gone head-to-head-to-head, the mighty trio will all be running on relatively tired legs in the 5,000-meters.
Though there’ll be some sort of a handicap, this will surely be a race for the ages. If you miss it live, you’ll regret it, as the technology to erase selective memories won’t exist until at least the 22nd century; seeing it in-person, or on some sort of screen, will have to suffice.
Below, I’ll give a quick breakdown of each of the three and why he’ll win.
Edward Cheserek
NCAA Schedule
10K - Wednesday, June 11th at 7:15PM
5K - Friday, June 13th at 6:10PM
Let’s just get the basic fact out of the way: Edward Cheserek, a freshman, has never lost a race in which an NCAA title was on the line. He’s three for three.
So, despite his short-lived reputation among the collegiate ranks, Cheserek could very well fall in front of the home crowd.
But consider the following: if I would have asked you two years ago whether Cheserek would beat Lalang over 5,000-meters, what would you answer?
Because not too long ago at the 2012 Millrose Games, we saw Lalang finish 2nd in the Men's 5K in 13:08.28 and Cheserek, then a high school senior, finish way back in 8th in 13:57.04.
The two weren't even in the same conversation back then, but now, two years later, Cheserek is favored over his Pac-12 rival. But in the not-so-perfect world of NCAA championships and highly coveted team points, this is not the case.
The Oregon Duck will have less than 48 hours between his 10K and 5K finals to adequately recover. For us mere mortals, that doesn’t sound very fun, especially when attempting to win both.
But after talking to a coach who knows a thing or two about recovery, I think Cheserek will be fine come Friday night. I’d be willing to wager that the Oregon distance crew does over 10K worth of intervals on a regular basis, which would make coming back from a 10K a little easier on the legs.
The question is whether Cheserek will be able to find that final gear in the final stages of the race, or whether he’ll simply have the legs to run a fast pace from the gun, which is what dictated Lalang last year.
Lawi Lalang
NCAA Schedule
1500 - Thursday, June 12th at 4:30PM + Saturday, June 14th at 2:18PM (tentative)
5K - Friday, June 13th at 6:10PM
Ah, the revenge narrative. It once again rears its wonderful head.
While you may not need a reminder, Lalang is out not to defend his title, but his pride. This past winter, the Arizona senior made an inane attempt to win the Men’s Mile, 3,000-meters, and 5,000-meters at the NCAA Championships and ended up coming away with zero titles.
Even still, it was over before it started, due to Cheserek’s ferocious, drawn-out kick in the Men’s 5K.
This time, though, Lalang won’t be doubling hours back (at altitude, nonetheless) from the mile. Instead, he’ll have roughly 24 hours to recover from what should be an easy preliminary 1,500-meter round for a guy who’s run 3:33.30.
Not to mention, Lalang has run 3:36.34 for 1,500-meters this season in what was definitively the greatest 1,500-meter collegiate race of all-time. Against whom, you may ask? Is there any other answer other than Cheserek?
Edit: Remember last year ago when Cheserek was trying to just break four minutes in the mile? Hah.
After running 13:00.95 last summer in Monaco, I would have wagered my soul that Lalang would never lose another collegiate 5K ever again. Heck, he even wants to run sub-13 this summer as well. But thankfully, I’m not a betting man, so the essence of my being is still intact.
Here’s what should happen on Friday night:
1) Lalang will make this a real race from the start, or, at least, after the first few laps, which will be lead by Kithuka
2) The winner will run sub-13:20. Again, if you have Albuqueque-induced amnesia, Cheserek’s winning time from this past indoor championship converted to 13:24.81, which is an unofficial NCAA meet record. That's what it will take to win.
Or, if you want to hear it from the horse's mouth, things will be "tricky" in Eugene:
Or, if you want to hear it from the horse's mouth, things will be "tricky" in Eugene:
Kennedy Kithuka
NCAA Schedule
10K - Wednesday, June 11th at 7:15PM
5K - Friday, June 13th at 6:10PM
The senior from Texas Tech once looked unstoppable, but now, may not win another NCAA title ever again. The swift winds of change have blown Kithuka's ship astray.
We could delve into the intricacies and predictions of the Men’s 10,000-meters, but we’ll stick to the 5K for now.
Unfortunately, despite tearing apart the field at the 2013 NCAA Indoor Championships, Kithuka will be left for broke at this week’s championship.
That’s not to say that a 13:25.38 guy doesn’t have a shot at winning, but Lalang is better flat-out from the gun and Cheserek has a better finishing kick. In a race where there’s no room for error, Kithuka is just outmatched.
Final Predictions
Cheserek over Lalang. We wonder if the Oregon Duck will hang back with the rest of the crew for team points, but that’s a discussion for another preview. In the meantime, our prediction pendulum is currently swaying towards Cheserek, though Lalang could easily get his vengeance.
The rest of the field is listed below.
The rest of the field is listed below.
Event 7 Men 5000 Meter Run
===============================================================================
American: 12:53.60 7/22/2011 Bernard Lagat, Nike
College Best: 13:08.4h 5/13/1978 Henry Rono, Washington State
NCAA Meet: 13:20.63 6/2/1979 Sydney Maree, Villanova
Name Year School Seed
===============================================================================
1 Kennedy Kithuka SR Texas Tech 13:37.95
2 Lawi Lalang SR Arizona 13:43.55
3 Edward Cheserek FR Oregon 13:48.00
4 Shadrack Kipchirchir SR Okla State 13:48.43
5 Trevor Dunbar SR Oregon 13:48.64
6 Stanley Kebenei JR Arkansas 13:51.85
7 Weston Strum JR Loyola Marymount 13:52.00
8 Soufiane Bouchikhi SR E. Kentucky 14:04.47
9 Matthew Gillespie SR Iona 14:07.66
10 Matt Fischer JR Penn State 14:11.57
11 Eric Jenkins JR Oregon 14:11.57
12 Matthew Schwartzer FR Indiana 14:11.63
13 Curtis King SO Dartmouth 14:11.75
14 Parker Stinson SR Oregon 14:11.86
15 Isaac Presson SR North Carolina 14:12.44
16 Joe Rosa JR Stanford 14:12.86
17 Wesley Gallagher SO Northeastern 14:13.04
18 Mohammed Ahmed SR Wisconsin 14:13.20
19 John Bleday JR Dartmouth 14:13.33
20 Andrew Colley SR NC State 14:14.34
21 Patrick Tiernan FR Villanova 14:14.57
22 Tom Purnell SO Harvard 14:14.95
23 Nick Happe SR Notre Dame 14:15.04
24 Kirubel Erassa JR Okla State 14:18.65