By Dennis Young

This field features four of the top six for last year’s Worlds: winner Eunice Sum, bronze medallist Brenda Martinez, and fiftth/sixth placers Yekaterina Poistogova and Ajee’ Wilson. With thirteen starters, the track is going to be extremely crowded for an elite 800, but it may be worth it to stuff in Laura Roesler (in her DL debut), Jessica Judd, and previous world champ Janeth Jepkosgei in addition to the above quartet.

Women’s 800 (3:25 Eastern)

ATHLETE	DATE OF BIRTH	NATION	PB	SB
BECKWITH-LUDLOW Molly	04.08.1987	USA	1:59.12	1:59.30
FEDRONIC Justine	11.05.1991	FRA	2:00.97	2:01.50
JEPKOSGEI Janeth	13.12.1983	KEN	1:56.04	1:59.73
JERUTO Agatha	02.04.1994	KEN	2:00.95	2:00.95
JUDD Jessica	07.01.1995	GBR	1:59.77	1:59.77
LAMOTE Renelle	26.12.1993	FRA	2:00.56	2:00.56
MARTINEZ Brenda	08.09.1987	USA	1:57.91	1:59.24
NANYONDO Winnie	23.08.1993	UGA	1:59.27	1:59.27
POISTOGOVA Yekaterina	01.03.1991	RUS	1:57.53	1:58.55
ROESLER Laura	19.12.1991	USA	1:59.04	1:59.04
SUM Eunice Jepkoech	10.04.1988	KEN	1:57.38	1:58.48
WILSON Ajee	08.05.1994	USA	1:58.21	1:58.70

Eunice Sum is going to win this race.  She’s five for five in big 800s, with a Kenyan title under her belt and Diamond League wins in Doha, Rome, Oslo, and Lausanne. Her only two losses in 2014 were in the 4x8 at World Relays (hardly her fault) and in the 1500 at Prefontaine.

The two big questions are:

1) How fast will it go?

This one’s all in the pacing.  The last time the women’s 800 was a DL event, in Lausanne, Agatha Jeruto took the field through 200 meters in 26 and 400 in 54.  Jeruto is listed on the start list for Friday; hopefully the meet directors have hired a second rabbit or given Jeruto extremely explicit instructions. The fastest time in the world this year belongs to The Cuban* Sahily Mesa at 1:57.74. No one else has broken 1:58, and only Sum, Poistogova, and Wilson have broken 1:59. With more moderate pacing, Sum could crack into the 1:57s (maybe the 1:56s on a perfect evening), and Wilson, Poistogova, and Roesler could run 1:58.

2) How will the Americans run?

Ajee’ Wilson has had the best 2014, Brenda Martinez’s 2013 was one of the best years an American has ever had, and Laura Roesler  and Molly Beckwith-Ludlow (second and third at USAs) are having career seasons. Fresh off a US title and a win in Glasgow, Wilson is certainly the best American coming in. Roesler spent two years destroying collegiate competition and running 2:00-2:02 and in her first post-NCAA race nearly ran 1:58, hitting 1:59.04 for second in Sacramento.  Beckwith-Ludlow has figured out that, counterintuitively, her key to staying healthy is racing a ton.

It’s worked so far.  And Martinez showed monster fitness two months ago with a fantastic double at World Relays and a win in the Hengelo 800, but has regressed since, getting 10th in the Oslo 800, 8th in the New York 1500, and 5th at nationals.

At least one out of Wilson, Roesler, and Beckwith-Ludlow will PR on Friday night, assuming non-catastrophic pacing. Martinez is the question mark; it’s never a bad idea to guess that Joe Vigil knows how to right the ship.

*not a nickname. She’s Cuban.