IAAF World Junior Championships 2014Jul 22, 2014 by Dennis Young
Fisher and VT's Joseph look to impress in 1500m
Fisher and VT's Joseph look to impress in 1500m
2014 World Junior Men’s Distance Preview
The men’s 1500 is the first distance event on the docket in Eugene, with heats Tuesday 2:45 EST and the final 11:40 Thursday night. While most of the Americentric talk has centered around HSer Grant Fisher, here’s to Patrick Joseph of Virginia Tech. Joseph was just the thirteenth fastest freshman in the NCAA (some of who are too old) at 3:44.98, but it’s Joseph who ran 3:43.70 at the Portland Track Festival and is now taking the extremely rare opportunity to run at a world championship. That time from the PTF ranks 13th on the entry list.
Fisher’s 4:02.02 mile is equivalent to something in the 3:44.0 range; your conversions may slightly vary, but regardless, he has around the 16th fastest SB in the field.
Both Fisher and Joseph are capable of making the final -- Fisher did last year-- but the path there is brutal: four heats, with the top three auto-qualifying and just three time-qualifier spots available. There’s been a little buzz about Fisher being a medal threat, but he and Joseph would both impress by simply qualifying for the final or setting a personal best.
The 800 (heats 3:50 EST Friday, semis 7:25 Saturday, final 7:15 Sunday) is outrageously deep professionally, and that quality shows no signs of abating* as the junior ranks start to replenish their elders.
Tre’tez Kinnaird, a 1:47.99 frosh for Indiana, is half of the future of the NCAA 800. But he’s no match for the present of international juniors, as he’s ranked just 12th on the entry list. Two men have run 1:45 this year, three 1:46, and six ahead of Kinnaird in the 1:47s. One of those six is the other half of collegiate half-miling’s near future— Puerto Rican Andres Arroyo of Florida. Arroyo has run about half a second faster than Kinnaird, and like Fisher and Joseph, both would be glad to set a PB or make the final.
*Especially if these juniors are their stated age.
The 10k (11:40 Tuesday night), steeple (heats 2:40 Friday/final 6:30 Sunday), and 5k (11:45 Friday night) are an epic bloodbath from an American perspective. LetsRun captures the size of the windmills the Americans are tilting at here:
"It’s also unfair to ask guys like Jonathan Green (30:54 PR), the U.S. Junior champ at 10,000 meters, or Brendan Shearn (29:49.04 PR), the US runner-up, to race against Tsegaye Mekonnen, who won the Dubai Marathon in January in 2:04:32 and followed that up with a fifth-place finish in London in 2:08:06.
To put that in perspective, Mekonnen’s 2:04:32 marathon PR is the equivalent of running 29:30 pace for 10,000 for 26.2 miles. Neither Green or Shearn has run that for one 10,000-- let alone for more than four in a row without stopping."
On the plus side, this means that Green, Shearn, Coby Gilbert (Washington/5k), Brian Barranza (Houston/5k), Bailey Roth (HS/Arizona-bound/steeple), or Bryce Miller (UMKC*/steeple) getting a medal would be a Lake Placid-level miracle. Good luck, guys.
*I had three or four economics classes in college with UMKC-trained profs, all of who rejected every fundamental principle of the way economics is typically taught. Maybe the same insane mindset will propel Miller to success in the steeple.
The men’s 1500 is the first distance event on the docket in Eugene, with heats Tuesday 2:45 EST and the final 11:40 Thursday night. While most of the Americentric talk has centered around HSer Grant Fisher, here’s to Patrick Joseph of Virginia Tech. Joseph was just the thirteenth fastest freshman in the NCAA (some of who are too old) at 3:44.98, but it’s Joseph who ran 3:43.70 at the Portland Track Festival and is now taking the extremely rare opportunity to run at a world championship. That time from the PTF ranks 13th on the entry list.
Fisher’s 4:02.02 mile is equivalent to something in the 3:44.0 range; your conversions may slightly vary, but regardless, he has around the 16th fastest SB in the field.
Both Fisher and Joseph are capable of making the final -- Fisher did last year-- but the path there is brutal: four heats, with the top three auto-qualifying and just three time-qualifier spots available. There’s been a little buzz about Fisher being a medal threat, but he and Joseph would both impress by simply qualifying for the final or setting a personal best.
The 800 (heats 3:50 EST Friday, semis 7:25 Saturday, final 7:15 Sunday) is outrageously deep professionally, and that quality shows no signs of abating* as the junior ranks start to replenish their elders.
Tre’tez Kinnaird, a 1:47.99 frosh for Indiana, is half of the future of the NCAA 800. But he’s no match for the present of international juniors, as he’s ranked just 12th on the entry list. Two men have run 1:45 this year, three 1:46, and six ahead of Kinnaird in the 1:47s. One of those six is the other half of collegiate half-miling’s near future— Puerto Rican Andres Arroyo of Florida. Arroyo has run about half a second faster than Kinnaird, and like Fisher and Joseph, both would be glad to set a PB or make the final.
*Especially if these juniors are their stated age.
The 10k (11:40 Tuesday night), steeple (heats 2:40 Friday/final 6:30 Sunday), and 5k (11:45 Friday night) are an epic bloodbath from an American perspective. LetsRun captures the size of the windmills the Americans are tilting at here:
"It’s also unfair to ask guys like Jonathan Green (30:54 PR), the U.S. Junior champ at 10,000 meters, or Brendan Shearn (29:49.04 PR), the US runner-up, to race against Tsegaye Mekonnen, who won the Dubai Marathon in January in 2:04:32 and followed that up with a fifth-place finish in London in 2:08:06.
To put that in perspective, Mekonnen’s 2:04:32 marathon PR is the equivalent of running 29:30 pace for 10,000 for 26.2 miles. Neither Green or Shearn has run that for one 10,000-- let alone for more than four in a row without stopping."
On the plus side, this means that Green, Shearn, Coby Gilbert (Washington/5k), Brian Barranza (Houston/5k), Bailey Roth (HS/Arizona-bound/steeple), or Bryce Miller (UMKC*/steeple) getting a medal would be a Lake Placid-level miracle. Good luck, guys.
*I had three or four economics classes in college with UMKC-trained profs, all of who rejected every fundamental principle of the way economics is typically taught. Maybe the same insane mindset will propel Miller to success in the steeple.