By: Kyle Brazeil, Milesplit
Portland, OR - MileSplit is heading west, as the top teams in the nation descend on Nike Headquarters for the Nike Cross Nationals. For the first time ever, the meet will be held at Glendoveer Golf Course, a course described as a good footing field filled with rolling hills. The weather looks to be wet and warm, in preparation for some of the hottest action in the sport all year. We'll be on the scene all weekend long, capturing all the action.
THE FAVORITES: SEARCHING FOR A STORYBOOK ENDING
The boys of Fayetteville-Manlius had their season start much like the girls. 25 or so boys came out for the team on that first day of practice. But that is where the similarities stop. Past experiences ran strong in a core group of individuals, as 6 of their top 7 were returning from 2013. They had their frontrunner in Bryce Millar, who had taken distance running up a notch in the track seasons the spring before. Pete Ryan had the right genes, brother of Nick Ryan, the two-time defending state champion, before the title was passed to his teammate Millar after graduation. And Kyle Barber had the speed, demonstrated by his big leap in performances over the 400m hurdles on the track, a good indicator that it could translate to strength speed in cross country. However, a back end was still needed. Adam Hunt was far off the front in his junior year, and classmate Riley Hughes a mid-race runner for a majority of the season. Even missing still, was that 6th man insurance policy. And insurance would be needed, because not 20 miles away, another top team in the country was returning 6 of 7 athletes from the year prior as well. Liverpool was a very real, and very evident threat, if Fayetteville-Manlius was unable to respond.
However, respond they did, and in a dominant style. The Stotans race strategy seemed to switch, now focusing on how close the back four could be to Bryce Millar. The answer was a resounding majority. Barber's work over the summer had paid off, as did Ryan's. Hunt, no longer content with seeing a sea of Orange ahead, joined the trio up top, and fifth-man Hughes stayed within contact of the front. From the gun of the first dual meet of the season, set on September 10th, it was evident that there was a National Powerhouse blooming in Syracuse, with another not far behind.
Consistently strong, the boys of Fayetteville-Manlius ran a season of stories. Winning McQuaid without their #2. Smashing the Manhattan Course Record for Five-Man Average by over 12 seconds. Winning their state meet by over 80 points, finally finding their insurance policy in sophomore Joe Walters. But the boys of Fayetteville-Manlius had read this story before. Their 2004 predecessors wrote their own stories before them, however the ending strayed from perfection. They would finish second to York (IL) at NXN. In 2014, the boys of Fayetteville-Manlius are back again, looking for that storybook ending. A slight wake up call at regionals reminded them the story is not yet written. It is up to them to stamp their signatures on many of their final seasons.
THE FAVORITES: THE MEN IN THE MIRROR
If Great Oak is the opposite to the FM Girls, then American Fork (UT) is the equal to the FM Boys. They too have had an ever present force in their backyard, in the from of Davis. What was once a clear victory at States, was now much closer at Regionals, after an off performance. For those following speed ratings throughout the season, the two programs mirrored each other in composition. Three guys strong out front, a formidable fourth, and a fifth-man who could handle many teams thirds. The National Rankings were much of a toss up on top, each team one-upping each other in a rotating fashion. And finally, both will have their chance to fight for a title that has eluded them by the closest margins.
The seeds of change began in 2007. In that year, American Fork would finish second in the Utah state meet, and 10th of 17 teams in the first NXN-SW (then NTN-SW) regional championship. They had never won a state title before, let alone place as high. Next year, after another second at state, the American Fork team was back at NXN-SW. This time they moved up to fourth. And finally, after a dazzling invitational season in 2009, American Fork didn't just win the state meet, they crushed the field, winning with only 36 points, 50 points ahead of second-place Pleasant Grove. American Fork boasted three of the top five finishers at state in Austin West, Clayton Young, and Robby Lee. They've been to NXN ever since, never finishing outside the top ten. Now in 2014, once again three of the top five finishers in the state in Zac Jacklin, Casey Clinger and McKay Jones, were wearing "AF" across their chests.
They come into NXN as the co-favorites, despite projections. Unlike the teams they're close to, American Fork has been consistent. They know how to get every guy in the lineup to fire on all cylinders. In addition, they'll be coming down from elevation, to help even out the numbers up top. While not an immediate effect, it will give them an edge after a lifetime of experience. This race could be very close. Each team has the experience with racing well at NXN, will one walk up the stairs to the podium, or could another get the honor?
THE FAVORITES: SEARCHING FOR SAVIORS
A funny thing happened one Saturday afternoon, during a stroll through the snow in the unpredictable Northeast. Two teams, once thought down and out, punched their tickets to Portland, stamped with a strong showing at NXN-NY. Both teams had significant injuries, that had some question their chances of relevancy all together. For Saint Anthony's (NY), the injury came from the year prior. Joe Tucker, brother of All-American Pat Tucker, saw much of his junior season on the track cut short. Coming into the fall, many were unsure if he would be back running with the team, although any questions were soon answered come the first meet. For La Salle Academy (RI), the loss came in-season, as Jack Salisbury, the teams #2, tweaked his leg at the ironically named Injury Fund Invitational in Rhode Island. At regionals, both were back on the line, and both had significant impacts. Salisbury would finish as the team's third man, amidst an impressive 20-second compression. Their performance rivaled, and may have even bested, that of Fayetteville-Manlius on the day. For Tucker, he too was their team's third man, finishing just a step or two off their team's second man. They proved their Federation performance was no fluke, knocking off Liverpool from an automatic qualifier. Both teams are in the hunt, and have the legs to pull off another upset. With one race to go, anything's possible.
THE FIGHTERS: MEET MAINSTAYS
Teams that have made NXN, are more likely to return. Teams that have had success at NXN, are more likely to perform well at NXN. Two teams looking to live that creed in 2014 will be Davis (UT) and Christian Brothers Academy (NJ). Both teams have made five trips in the past five years, and both have finished on the podium before, Lincroft at the top. Much like in Syracuse, Davis has been running their season against another national powerhouse, in American Fork. The competition has made both teams better, in a symbiotic relationship that drives excellence. Davis had closed the gap on Fork by the time Regionals came around, and they could move it even closer, coming away with an overall win. Meanwhile, CBA had been caught up in a firestorm of national clashes. At Manhattan, it appeared as the sacrificial lamb to three US Top 5 squads (at the time) duking it out. However, they still looked strong in isolation, dominating competition in their own state. Their strength has always been in their numbers, and again they look to have a very strong pack. If that pack sticks together, behind a single-digit scorer in Ferro, anything is possible.
THE FIGHTERS: RUNNING FOR REDEMPTION
Nobody will ever accuse Liverpool (NY) of having it easy. Two years in a row, they have been a national caliber team, only to be unable to compete at their own State Championship. Two years in a row, they've had to race another national caliber team up to 7 times a season. And two years in a row, they looked like a team who would grab an auto-qualifying spot to NXN, only to miss out by a handful of points. This year, however, they will be looking to prove that their 2013 performance in Portland was a one time thing. Liverpool finds themselves as a team within striking distance. With frontrunner Ben Petrella grabbing low numbers, and a handful of others who are capable of finishing in the top 30 as well, Liverpool may have the final say on their season. The podium is a good possibility, because no other team has spent as much time racing this level of competition as the Warriors of Syracuse. With a both flatter and wider course, which suits their racing style more closely, we may have a surprise waiting to happen.
THE FIGHTERS: CALIFORNIA CONTINGENCY
It's not about how you start a season, it is how you finish. At Clovis, the Ventura (CA) boys found themselves in 13th place, 200 points behind race winner Great Oak. Two months later, and Ventura was now atop the power merge in the largest state in the Nation. Their 35-second compression is very impressive, and could prove deadly in a field like NXN. Meanwhile, the rest of California finds itself amid controversy. Brea Olinda (CA) was one of the top teams coming into NXN, capable of a podium finish. However, frontrunner Austin Tamagno has decided to opt out for Foot Locker, dropping his teams chances. Jurupa Hills (CA) now moves to being the second best team out of California, and are on the cusp of a top ten finish. How quickly things can change.
THE FOLLOWERS: LOW STICK LIFESTYLE
When your the top returner, not even Foot Locker's call can shake your focus. For Tanner Anderson of North Central (WA), bronze medalist in 2013, the idea of lining up with his teammates far outweighs the thoughts of a sunny beach in San Diego. It's a decision others had made differently, allowing their teams (Summit OR, Brea Olinda, CA) to qualify without them. But for Anderson, while the individual title is on his mind, the team has not been forgotten. Their team has performed well before, making top ten the year before. They once again find themselves only a slight improvement out of the top five slots. And everyone knows, when you are basically only scoring four runners (not counting the #1 point at the top), it is much easier to find success.
THE FOLLOWERS: UNDEFEATED
They are the team nobody is talking about, a fortuitous position their female counterparts took advantage of in 2013. Wayzata (MN) sits currently undefeated, and not for a lack of trying from their competition. They have faced some of the top teams at both the Roy Griak Invitational, as well as the NXN-Heartland Regional. Although there are other teams ranked higher than them who are undefeated as well, it is hard to count out a crew that has never seen below the top of the podium all year.
NXN PROJECTIONS
A note for coaches looking to improve their score. The race at NXN operates on a bell curve. It is much easier to improve your score from the athletes in the middle, than it is from those in front. Also, most race positions are separated only by full and half seconds. That means things can vary greatly with only marginal improvements. The assumption is, however. that everyone will marginally improve, with more so of an improvement from those who qualified earlier in the year (their regional was less of a reflectional of where they'll be now, as compared to those we saw race this past weekend). You can also find another set of projections by clicking here. Bill Meylan creates the speed ratings we use to process the raw data. We then differ on our handicaps, and analysis', his from the point of view of a gambler, while mine are the point of view of a coach. And finally, for the first time ever, we've included the raw data on the next page (to an extent), so if you disagree with the below scores, we have given you the tools to tinker, and create your own.
Varsity Boys 5000 Meter Run Team Scores
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Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7)
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1 Manlius XC Club 99 2 6 7 16 68 88 136
Total Time: 1:44 Average: 20.80 1-5 Split: 1:06
2 American Fork Cross Count 160 8 11 17 53 71 97 129
Total Time: 2:45 Average: 33.00 1-5 Split: 1:03
3 Assisi XC 166 10 25 28 38 65 113 115
Total Time: 2:51 Average: 34.20 1-5 Split: 55
4 La Salle XC Club 167 12 22 31 46 56 120 133
Total Time: 2:52 Average: 34.40 1-5 Split: 44
5 Ventura 214 18 20 45 47 84 99 126
Total Time: 3:39 Average: 43.80 1-5 Split: 1:06
6 Warriors 218 4 21 29 74 90 124 128
Total Time: 3:43 Average: 44.60 1-5 Split: 1:26
7 Davis Xc Club 221 23 27 32 67 72 125 137
Total Time: 3:46 Average: 45.20 1-5 Split: 49
8 Brothers XC Club 238 13 50 52 59 64 73 86
Total Time: 4:03 Average: 48.60 1-5 Split: 51
9 Summit 272 36 41 44 69 82 140 -
Total Time: 4:37 Average: 55.40 1-5 Split: 46
10 North Central 273 1 37 55 77 103 132 134
Total Time: 4:37 Average: 55.40 1-5 Split: 1:43
11 Jurupa Hills 278 15 19 35 93 116 138 142
Total Time: 4:43 Average: 56.60 1-5 Split: 1:41
12 Sandburg XC Club 281 48 51 54 58 70 80 111
Total Time: 4:46 Average: 57.20 1-5 Split: 22
13 Wayzata XC 283 14 24 49 87 109 121 130
Total Time: 4:48 Average: 57.60 1-5 Split: 1:35
14 Alpha T-wolves 327 34 60 62 66 105 143 145
Total Time: 5:32 Average: 1:06.40 1-5 Split: 1:11
15 Lemrac 339 9 76 79 83 92 139 141
Total Time: 5:44 Average: 1:08.80 1-5 Split: 1:23
16 Washington C 341 3 33 78 96 131 148 151
Total Time: 5:46 Average: 1:09.20 1-5 Split: 2:08
17 Brea Olinda 364 26 42 75 102 119 146 -
Total Time: 6:09 Average: 1:13.80 1-5 Split: 1:33
18 SFL Patriots 380 5 63 94 104 114 123 127
Total Time: 6:25 Average: 1:17.00 1-5 Split: 1:49
19 Severna Park 397 40 81 85 91 100 150 152
Total Time: 6:42 Average: 1:20.40 1-5 Split: 1:00
20 Carroll XC Club 411 30 39 107 117 118 135 149
Total Time: 6:56 Average: 1:23.20 1-5 Split: 1:28
21 Edina XC Running Club 431 43 89 95 98 106 144 147
Total Time: 7:16 Average: 1:27.20 1-5 Split: 1:03
22 Woodlands XC Club 437 57 61 101 108 110 112 122
Total Time: 7:22 Average: 1:28.40 1-5 Split: 53