If you want to qualify a DMR squad to NCAAs, the Alex Wilson Invitational has historically been the best place to get it done. Since 2011, no less than half of the 12 relay teams to advance on to nationals in the descending order format have run their qualifying marks in South Bend. Especially notable, in 2013 all 12 teams that went on to NCAAs hit their standard at Notre Dame on March 1st, 2013, proof that the road to an NCAA title runs through this relay hotbed. 

 

The last team in to NCAAs over the last three years has recorded an average time of 9:31.65, but just to be safe, sub-9:31 is ideal, and that is the number that several medley teams will target this Saturday at Alex Wilson. The current last team in is the Florida Gators at 9:36.44, who almost certainly will be on the outside looking in after this weekend, as the boys from Gainesville won’t be in attendance in South Bend. Do you know who will be? [Raises hand] That’s right, Flotrack will be LIVE streaming the 2015 Alex Wilson Invitational all day Saturday, where fast DMR times aren’t just expected, they’re tradition! Reminder: Due to ACC regulations, we can only show you this meet once, so make sure to tune-in LIVE!

 

Let’s get on to this preview, shall we?

 

Men’s DMR, 11:05am CT

The men’s field is so deep, they’ve separated it into two equally competitive heats which should make for excellent theater as these races go back-to-back. The Stanford men are the defending NCAA DMR champions, and although they lost anchor Michael Atchoo to graduation, they have just as good of a shot as any to win their second consecutive title. First, however, the Cardinal have to make it to Fayetteville, which they must not think they’ve done quite yet with their 9:32.08 from last month, currently #6 in the NCAA. 

 

An interesting, but not at all accurate portrayal of what these teams will run on Saturday is taking each runner’s individual PRs and then combining them to produce a fantasy DMR team, if you will. Of course, this doesn’t factor in hand-offs or race tactics, but it does help to show where each team’s strengths lie and what  we should expect them to run (by adding a few seconds, of course.) We used this method of comparison because not every team has run a DMR in 2015. Here’s how the scenario played out:

(Note: to predict 1200m times, we used 800m or mile PRs, and plugged them into a running calculator. For 1600m, we used mile PRs and adjusted accordingly)

Section 1

- Indiana: 9:22.99

- Iowa State: 9:24.29

- Illinois: 9:25.86

- Stanford: 9:26.82

- Columbia: 9:26.90

- Oklahoma: 9:29.87

- Nebraska: 9:37.91

Section 2

- Loyola (Ill.): 9:23.62

- Alabama: 9:26.99

- Arkansas: 9:27.34 

- Virginia: 9:28.48

- Wake Forest: 9:34.45

- Houston: 9:35.57

- Texas: 9:38.48

 

Reminder: this is not at all what we are predicting that each team will run on Saturday. These times were reached by combining each runner’s PR’s and/or coverted PR to get an idea of which teams will most likely earn a trip to NCAAs this weekend. For perspective, the Team USA DMR that just ran the world record of 9:19.93 last month would have a time of 9:11.10 in this formula. Goes to show that a lot more goes into the DMR than meets the eye.

 

PREDICTION: 1. Indiana, 9:28.50. 2. Stanford, 9:28.62. 3. Arkansas, 9:29.02. 4. Illinois, 9:29.15. 5. Loyola (Ill.), 9:29.70. 

 

Women’s DMR, 10:50am CT

Last year’s cutoff for NCAAs was 11:11.69, and just one team in this field has dipped under that mark in 2015. The Baylor Bears should be safe at the 11:09.35 they ran last month in Kentucky, but just to be sure, the Waco ladies will come to South Bend prepared to go even faster. 800m leg Olicia Williams ran an NCAA #2 2:03.21 last week at Iowa State, a huge breakout performance for the junior.

 

The Michigan Wolverines just might be the favorites on Saturday. The Ann Arbor ladies ran 11:00.20 last season, and they return everyone in 2015. Anchor Brook Handler won the Meyo Mile here two weeks ago in 4:38.19. 

 

Looking to spoil that fun will be the Cowgirls of Oklahoma State. Dave Smith’s group sits at #10 in the NCAA right now with their 11:12.89 at the Razorback Invite, but an over-sized track and better competition should do wonders for the team from Stillwater. Anchor leg Kaela Edwards ran an NCAA #3 2:03.70 in the lightning fast 800 at Iowa State last weekend. 

 

Potential individual NCAA contenders Natoya Goule (Clemson) and Erin Teschuk (North Dakota St.) lead their teams into South Bend. Goule ran an NCAA #1 2:02.78 in the 800m at the Armory Invite last month, while Teschuk is currently #4 in the mile (4:32.09), and #5 in the 3k (9:02.40). 

 

The Harvard ladies cannot be forgotten. The Crimson sit at #13 in the NCAA, their 11:22.53 from two weeks ago in Boston.

 

PREDICTION: 1. Michigan, 11:03.55. 2. Baylor, 11:04.80. 3. Oklahoma State, 11:05.20. 4. Harvard, 11:15.05. 5. Vanderbilt, 11:22.88. 

 

All The Rest:

 

Men's 800m, 1:00pm CT

All-Americans Patrick Rono of Arkansas and Luke Lefebure of Stanford will duke it out in the men’s 8. Rono has been off his game recently, having only run 1:49.35 thus far in 2015. He needs to step it up if he wants to qualify for NCAAs and help his team in the title hunt. Meyo Mile champion Sam Penzenstadler of Loyola (Ill.) will double back from the DMR and test his speed in the 800m after running a 3:58.05 mile PB last week at Iowa State.

 

Women's Mile, 11:40am CT

2014 World indoor bronze medalist Nicole Sifuentes of Canada will make her 2015 debut on Saturday. The former Michigan Wolverine has run 4:28 indoors. Challenging her will be 2013 NCAA outdoor 1500m champion Natalja Piliusina of Oklahoma State, who has not raced in the burnt orange since June 2013.