Women’s Mile, Saturday, 1:30 pm ET

With many athletes electing to focus on the DMR, 800, or 3k and only one returning All American, the mile has a serious lack of depth. The last athlete to make the field was all the way back at 33^rd on the performance lists. As a result, the list of title contenders is quite short. So short, in fact, that it might as well be one name: Maryann Gong. The sophomore from MIT has been simply untouchable this winter, with back-to-back wins over number two seed Alison Maxwell of Middlebury as well as dominant victories over three of the other top ten seeds. Though Gong has not proven herself on the national stage and her DMR-mile-3k triple may take its toll, she seems a lock to at least win this title.

 

Maxwell’s seed time sets her apart in the race for second, but her most recent performance does not inspire confidence. Instead, look out for mile newcomers Cassia Hameline of St. Lawrence and Hannah Chappell-Dick of Eastern Mennonite. Hameline is a senior who just this year discovered her long distance abilities, culminating in an eighth place performance at XC nationals. Meanwhile, Chappel-Dick has traditionally focused on the 800. If this race becomes tactical—a big if—Chappell-Dick’s 2:11 speed could surprise everyone. The only returning All-American, Ana Breit of UW Stevens Point, was the eighth place finisher last year but lost to fifteenth seed Sanjuanita Martinez of Cornell College last weekend.

 

Predictions: Gong, Hameline, Maxwell

 

Women’s 800m, Saturday, 3:45 pm ET

Nationals’ newcomers Rachel Shine (Oneonta) and Amanda White (RIT) are the top two seeds, and though they look a cut above on paper, I don’t expect either one to come away with the victory. Shine needed a huge PR at a last chance meet just to make the field, while eighth seed Amy Viti of Misericordia handily defeated White at the ECAC meet this past weekend. 

 

Instead of the top seeds, expect the established elite to return to the podium. Buried at ninth on the performance lists is defending indoor champion Kylee Verhasselt. Though she has not looked as sharp as she did last year, she will be vying for some important points for her UW Oshkosh Titans. Verhasselt has not lost an 800 to any DIII competitors other than former teammate Christy Cazzola in over a year. Though not an overwhelming favorite, she has shown the consistency that many other top contenders lack. Her road to the finals is difficult, though, as her heat contains three 800 meter All-Americans: Trisha King of Trine, Cynthia Adams of Lebanon Valley, and Emily Warner of Wash U. 

 

Assuming she makes it safely out of the prelims, Verhasselt’s main competition will likely come from Taylor Moore, a Wartburg senior who was third at last year’s indoor national championships and fourth outdoors. Like Verhasselt, she has not flashed her 2014 form yet this year and comes in as only the sixth seed. However, Moore had huge PR’s at both indoor and outdoor nationals last year, so I expect her to be ready again this weekend. 

Predictions: Verhasselt, Moore, Adams

 

Women’s 5000m, Friday, 5:25 pm ET

As you might expect, this race looks to be a repeat of the cross country national championships, with Lucy Cheadle of Wash U battling with Amy Regan of Stevens Institute while lots of Johns Hopkins Blue Jays finish near the front. Consider Regan a moderate favorite: she is the top seed, she won at XC nationals, and she has slightly more speed than Cheadle. However, Cheadle beat Regan in both the 3k and 5k indoors last year. Frances Loeb of Johns Hopkins might actually provide the toughest challenge to Regan this time around. Loeb has looked sharp in every race this indoor season, and her 4:55 mile PR makes her tough to beat in a kick. 

 

There is a big drop-off after the top three, but sophomore Abrah Masterson of Cornell College might be able to mix it up with those veterans. After just missing out on All-American honors in cross country, Masterson is undefeated on the year and won her qualifying 5k by two and a half minutes. If you’re looking for a dark horse, Lucy Ramquist of UW Eau Claire is the eleventh seed but also has not lost to a collegiate this indoor season. Regan will likely go out fast, but Ramquist would be especially dangerous in a kicker’s race.

 

Predictions: Regan, Cheadle, Loeb

 

Women’s DMR, Friday, 6:10 pm ET

Frequently, the DMR comes down to which team has the best anchor, regardless of the other three legs. In this case, that distinction belongs to MIT with Maryann Gong bringing the baton home. However, Gong has three very capable teammates, including Christina Wicker (2:56 in the 1000) and Cindy Huang (2:12 in the 800), making them strong favorites. Their 11:36.78 places them seventh all time in Division III, although when taking into account the banked track conversions, they are only seeded a few seconds ahead of the next two teams.

 

Though second seeded Wash U may have to find a new anchor with Lucy Cheadle running the 5k, the University of Chicago is clearly putting all of their eggs in the DMR basket. All four of their legs qualified in individual events—two in the mile, one in the 800, and one in the 400—but none declared. If anyone can knock off MIT, it’s the Maroons. Fifth seeded Williams College will also send out a fresh—and freshman-filled—team, but they came up short at the Tufts last chance meet against anchor Tess Meehan and the rest of her Johns Hopkins teammates. In a 4 x Mile, Middlebury would be a co-favorite, with four women having run 4:57 or faster, but they don’t have the mid-distance depth in the 800 or 1200 to contend for the win in this stacked field.

 

Predictions: MIT, U of Chicago, Johns Hopkins

 

Women’s 3000m, Saturday, 4:25 pm ET

Assuming her triple goes as planned up to this point, Maryann Gong of MIT will be trying to establish herself as the next Christy Cazzola. However, Gong will be facing one of the best DIII fields ever assembled, including four women who have run in the 16:40’s and five others who have broken 5:00 in the mile. However, the top seven seeds will all be doubling back.

 

The winner of the 5k should provide the biggest challenge to Gong, but all of the major players will be back: Amy Regan, Lucy Cheadle, Frances Loeb, Abrah Masterson, and Lucy Ramquist. In addition, assuming she comes up short in the mile, Cassia Hameline gets another shot at taking down Gong. Expect this race to go out fast, stay fast, and still come down to a kick. Cazzola was able to win so many of these races because she had just enough strength and a whole lot of speed. Though invincible so far this season, I just don’t think Gong will have enough at the end of this long weekend to score a final 10 points for the Engineers.

 

Predictions: Regan, Gong, Ramquist

 

Team Title

There are four major contenders for four podium places, with the top spot on the podium very much up for grabs. Based purely on seeds, MIT is a slim favorite with a projected 44 points. However, the Engineers have four number one seeds—nowhere to pick up points there—and only nine total entries. They will need a perfect meet from sophomore Maryann Gong if they hope to bring home the title.  Leading the way in the USTFCCCA polls are Wisconsin rivals UW La Crosse and UW Oshkosh. The Titans from Oshkosh have won the past two indoor titles, but they are the underdog based on ranking, projected points (43 to 38), and number of entries (16 to 13). The final title contender, Illinois Wesleyan, comes in with 42 projected points and will be relying heavily on the jumps in order to keep pace.

 

Other podium hopefuls include Lehman—represented only by sprinting sophomores Allie Bernasconi and Adriana Wright—and the distance-heavy Johns Hopkins Blue Jays. With few entries, both teams will need to make the most of every opportunity in order to keep their podium hopes alive.

 

Predictions: MIT, UW La Crosse, UW Oshkosh, Illinois Wesleyan