MEN'S RACE

As far as sequels go, Meb Keflezighi’s return to the Boston Marathon one year after his improbable victory, where he became the first American male to win since 1983, will be momentous. The 39-year-old, who turns 40 on May 5th, is America’s finest marathoner, a fact that has now cemented itself in our collective consciousness with the images of an emotional Meb fist-pumping while draped in the American flag last Patriots Day. It was a story that was too good to be true, and remarkably, is still being written a year after his greatest triumph. 

 

Here we are, just days before the 119th running of the Boston Marathon, and Meb’s return to Boston feels a bit like LeBron’s homecoming in Cleveland. On a much smaller scale, of course, but the 2004 Olympic silver medalist became immortalized in American lore when he zoomed down Boylston Street to the finish line, a year after a horrendous attack on that spot changed the race forever. Meb was the hero that we needed last year, and now he’s become something more than just an incredibly tough and consistent marathoner. The word ‘legend’ seems fitting. 

Will this iconic image replicate itself in 2015?

Once again, Meb is being tasked with taking down a talented group of East Africans, among them past Boston champions just like himself. 2013 champion Lelisa Desisa has been in excellent form recently, and his 2:04:45 PB is 2nd best in the field. 2012 champ Wesley Korir is also back in 2015, although his chances of winning for a second time appear unlikely as he hasn’t broken 2:09 since 2012. 

 

In a race with five men who have broken 2:05, can a nearly 40-year-old man with a 2:08 PB defy the odds and win again? With so many variables and unpredictable elements, that answer is not so simple. But we’ll start by saying that on paper, Meb has a very small chance of winning this race in 2015. A couple of breaks had to fall his way last year for him to win, and the likelihood of two front-running East Africans dropping out again is very minimal (future WR holder Dennis Kimetto DNF’d, along with 2013 champ Desisa).

 

One thing is for certain, the Kenyans and Ethiopians will not take Meb for granted like they did last year; letting him go early with the expectation that he would come back to the field. He never looked back, and the East Africans realized what a dreadful mistake they had made. No such error will allow Meb to slip through their grasps in 2015. 

Meb reflects on Boston 2014 leading up to Monday's race:

 

With this being the expected race plan for the East Africans in 2015, the Americans may struggle to put three in the top 10 like they did last year. Considering Meb’s consistency and Dathan Ritzenhein’s excellent build-up races, we’re thinking that they both finish in the 6th -10th range, but of course, last year taught us not to put limitations on someone based on their PR. 

 

As always, there is a laundry list of East Africans with jaw-dropping marathon/half-marathon times in Monday’s race. Some are misleading- like half marathon World record holder Zersenay Tadese’s 58:23, which would suggest a very quick 26.2, yet he has never broken 2:10. There is also the owner of the fastest time in the race, Patrick Makau, who set the former World record of 2:03:38 back in 2011, but has not broken 2:08 since 2012. These men look good on paper, but the results show that they are past their prime. 

 

Others, however, cannot be denied. 

 

Desisa appears to be a lock for a podium position, having won this race two years ago, and finishing 2nd in his last two marathons, New York and Dubai. The 25-year-old knows this course, and he’ll be hungry after failing to finish last year. Similar merits could be argued for Wilson Chebet, who was 2nd a year ago, and was chief among those lamenting letting Meb slip away in 2014. Desisa’s Ethiopian countrymen Yemane Tsegay and Tadese Tola are among the five under 2:05, and they too should be in the fight up front as the race stampedes to Boylston. 

 

Even among all these giants, Meb still draws the most interest, with media and fans asking the same question as they do time and time again. “What do you got for us this time?”

 

That answer comes Monday. 

WOMEN'S RACE