It’s been five years since Iowa State’s Lisa (Koll) Uhl broke the collegiate record in the 10,000m, and there’s a chance we could see it go down this weekend at the Payton Jordan Invitational in Palo Alto, Calif.

I know what you’re thinking. “FloTrack, you need to stop hyping up these crazy marks that won’t happen, like that sub-16:00 4xMile at Penn Relays." So maybe that didn’t happen, but you got one of the most bizarre races in the history of tactical running out of it, didn’t you? This, my friends, is a possibility. Here's why.

Three of the NCAA’s best will toe the line Saturday evening with the promise of perfect conditions and a fast pace. Year after year the Kim McDonald Memorial 10,000m produces top marks throughout the world, USA, and NCAA. But what are the chances of Uhl’s 31:18.07 from the 2010 Stanford Invitational going down? With three NCAA Champions in the field, Emma Bates, Kate Avery, and Emily Sisson, I’d say the possibility is certainly there.

First, you’ve got the reigning NCAA 10k champion in Bates of Boise State. Bates’ personal best in this event is from 2014 Payton Jordan where she finished 13th (top NCAA runner) in 32:20.83. Her progession is impressive, which means the record isn’t exactly out of the question:

2012 34:38.95
2013 33:37.13
2014 32:20.83
2015 ??????

Bates’ said immediately after NCAA cross country season that the 10k record was what she was going after this season, and her 15:32.46 5000m personal best at April’s Stanford Invite means she is in good form.

Next is the 2014 cross country champion Avery of Iona. Avery has been a force for most of this NCAA year. After finishing fourth in last summer’s Commonwealth Games 10,000m (in a personal best of 32:33.35), Avery only ran three cross country races: conference, regionals, and then eventually winning the NCAA race in a blistering 19:31.60 on the Terre Haute course. After finishing sixth in the Millrose Games 3k (8:53.12, the third-fastest NCAA mark all season), she opted to compete in the European Indoor Championships instead of NCAAs, where she did not advance to the final. I guess it doesn’t really matter because she finished sixth in the Stanford Invite 5k last month in a personal best 15:25.63, well ahead of Bates. With minimal racing, Avery seems to do quite well, and with the World Championships in August, could this be Avery’s shot at the IAAF “A” Standard of 32:00? Surely she’s vying for a spot on the Great Britain team after almost medaling in Glasgow, so the urgency to achieve an “A” standard leads us to believe she’ll be rocking in this race.

And last, but certainly not least, is the NCAA 5k indoor collegiate record-holder Sisson of Providence. Sisson rocked the running world when she won the Big East Indoor 5k in 15:12.22, nipping Kim Smith’s record of 15:14.18. She’s in scary good shape and coming off a dominating year. She may have exhausted cross country eligibility but still finished second (to Molly Huddle) in the U.S. 12k Championships in November. Sisson’s 10k PB comes from Payton Jordan last season, running unattached in 32:31.06. She cut about 30 seconds from 2013 to 2014 in her 10k time, and a huge drop (over 20 seconds) from her 2014 5k personal best (15:33.16) before the record went down in February. 

So can any of these ladies take the record down? Sisson mentioned at the Penn Relays (where she won the 3k by an overwhelming margin) that she is gunning for the World “A” standard, and it’s clear that Avery is, as well. Don’t shake your head at me and call me crazy, because Uhl’s 2010 mark was set well, basically by herself. Tune in Saturday evening to see for yourself!