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You want to know who will win the men’s NCAA team title? (Women's Release)

 

We’ll tell you right now!

 

The Process:

- Ranked the top 8 athlete’s PBs (indoors/outdoors combined)
- Ignored wind-aided marks
- Included converted mile marks
- Included marks done unattached, out of season, or for another school/high school/club
- For relays used best 2015 team mark
- 'The Elite Distance Runner New To Event Excemption'

 

Before You Cry Wolf:

Of course the results of the 2015 championships will not be the exact order of all the athlete’s PBs. Some events athletes will over achieve and in other events the athletes will under achieve. The purpose of using PBs is to find an average to work off of that will result in seeing the true potential of each team’s scoring depth. This process is all about discovering the teams with the best scoring potential, it is not about predicting the outcome of specific races.

 

Why not just score the meet using 2015 marks?

Elite athletes are notorious for running the regular season just to qualify. Most of the time we never see athletes show their true potential until championship meets.

New To Event Excemption:

This is to account for the eye test on elite distance runners who have yet to go "all out" in their event ever. This eye test is focused on athletes on contending teams afterall, this is about predicting team points not individual all-americans. Last year this applied to Trevor Dunbar (Oregon) in the 10K. This year this applies to Eric Jenkins (Oregon) in the 10K, Edward Cheserek (Oregon) in the 10K, Dominique Scott (Arkansas) in the 5K and Waverly Neer (Oregon) in the 10K.
 

NOTE: This process was used during the past three track seasons and has yielded sucessful results.

 

Men’s Top 10 Projected Team Scores (Pre-Meet):

01) 72.0 Oregon
02) 63.5 Florida
03) 52.5 Texas A&M
04) 50.0 LSU
05) 44.0 Arkansas
06) 32.0 USC
07) 25.0 Georgia
08) 24.5 Mississippi State
09) 22.0 Texas
10) 19.5 Florida State

Again reminder these are not our predictions for individual events just a tool to calculate a team score projection.

EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
100	10	9.93	Clayton Vaughn	SR	UT-Arlington
100	7	9.97	Trayvon Bromell	SO	Baylor
100	7	9.97	Andre De Grasse	JR	USC
100	5	10.05	Tevin Hester	JR	Clemson
100	3	10.07	John Teeters	JR	Oklahoma State
100	3	10.07	Senoj-Jay Givans	SO	Texas
100	3	10.07	Beejay Lee	SR	USC
100	1	10.09	Kendal Williams	FR	Florida State
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
200	10	19.97	Dedric Dukes	SR	Florida
200	8	20.03	Andre De Grasse	JR	USC
200	6	20.13	Trayvon Bromell	SO	Baylor
200	5	20.14	Aaron Ernest	SR	LSU
200	4	20.18	Tevin Hester	JR	Clemson
200	3	20.23	Shavez Hart	SR	Texas A&M
200	2	20.25	Tremayne Acy	SO	LSU
200	1	20.26	Kendal Williams	FR	Florida State
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
400	10	44.36	Deon Lendore	SR	Texas A&M
400	8	44.44	Vernon Norwood	SR	LSU
400	6	44.79	Najee Glass	JR	Florida
400	5	44.89	Bralon Taplin	SR	Texas A&M
400	4	45.21	Marcus Chambers	SO	Oregon
400	3	45.37	Michael Cherry	SO	Florida State
400	2	45.51	DJ Zahn	SR	Illinois
400	1	45.53	Christopher Giesting	SR	Notre Dame
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
800	10	1:45.35	Brandon McBride	JR	Mississippi State
800	8	1:45.58	Brannon Kidder	JR	Penn State
800	6	1:45.78	Shaquille Walker	SO	BYU
800	5	1:45.98	Edward Kemboi	SR	Iowa State
800	4	1:46.13	Craig Engels	SO	Mississippi
800	3	1:46.29	Ryan Schnulle	JR	Florida
800	1.5	1:46.49	Andres Arroyo	SO	Florida
800	1.5	1:46.49	Jesse Jorgensen	SR	Washington State
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
1500	10	3:36.74	Jordan Williamsz	JR	Villanova
1500	8	3:38.04	Cristian Soratos	SR	Montana State
1500	6	3:38.35	Chad Noelle	JR	Oklahoma State
1500	5	3:39.02	Robby Creese	JR	Penn State
1500	4	3:39.27	Peter Callahan	SR	New Mexico
1500	3	3:39.43	Thomas Joyce	JR	California
1500	2	3:39.76	Daniel Winn	SR	Oregon
1500	1	3:40.08	Johnny Gregorek	SR	Oregon
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
5000	10	13:18.57	Eric Jenkins	SR	Oregon
5000	8	13:18.71	Edward Cheserek	SO	Oregon
5000	6	13:20.39	Kemoy Campbell	SR	Arkansas
5000	5	13:27.55	Kirubel Erassa	SR	Oklahoma State
5000	4	13:31.25	Patrick Tiernan	SO	Villanova
5000	3	13:33.29	Thomas Awad	JR	Penn
5000	2	13:34.86	Justyn Knight	FR	Syracuse
5000	1	13:36.22	Morgan Pearson	JR	Colorado
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
10000	10	28:30.18	Edward Cheserek*	SO	Oregon
10000	8	29:04.08	Eric Jenkins*	SR	Oregon
10000	6	27:54.25	Jason Witt	SR	BYU
10000	5	28:27.70	Martin Hehir	SR	Syracuse
10000	4	28:30.33	Marc Scott	SO	Tulsa
10000	3	28:33.48	Craig Lutz	SR	Texas
10000	2	28:35.76	Futsum Zienasellassie	JR	Northern Arizona
10000	1	28:36.53	Matt McElroy	SR	Northern Arizona
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
110H	10	13.21	Omar McLeod	SO	Arkansas
110H	8	13.45	Johnathan Cabral	SR	Oregon
110H	6	13.47	Jordan Moore	SO	LSU
110H	5	13.55	Joshua Thompson	SR	LSU
110H	4	13.56	Isaac Williams	JR	Houston
110H	3	13.57	Trey Holloway	JR	Hampton
110H	2	13.59	Donald Pollitt III	SR	Syracuse
110H	0.5	13.60	Aaron Mallett	SO	Iowa
110H	0.5	13.60	Lloyd Sicard	SO	UC Irvine
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
400H	10	48.44	Michael Stigler	SR	Kansas
400H	8	49.38	Keyunta Hayes	SR	UTSA
400H	6	49.39	Scottie Hearn	JR	Mississippi State
400H	5	49.41	Desmond Palmer	SO	Pittsburgh
400H	4	49.45	Eric Futch	SO	Florida
400H	3	49.53	Drew Branch	SR	Georgia
400H	1.5	49.60	Kenny Selmon	FR	North Carolina
400H	1.5	49.60	Gregory Coleman	SR	Texas A&M
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
3KSt	10	8:21.19	Anthony Rotich	SR	UTEP
3KSt	8	8:23.93	Stanley Kebenei	SR	Arkansas
3KSt	6	8:33.22	Ole Hesselbjerg	SR	Eastern Kentucky
3KSt	5	8:33.42	Tanguy Pepiot	SR	Oregon
3KSt	4	8:33.78	Edwin Kibichiy	SO	Louisville
3KSt	3	8:34.42	Zak Seddon	JR	Florida State
3KSt	2	8:35.45	Mason Ferlic	JR	Michigan
3KSt	1	8:36.88	Jackson Neff	SR	Ohio State
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
4x1	10	38.66	-	-	Arkansas
4x1	8	38.74	-	-	Texas A&M
4x1	6	38.78	-	-	LSU
4x1	5	38.87	-	-	Alabama
4x1	4	38.97	-	-	USC
4x1	3	39.08	-	-	Florida
4x1	2	39.15	-	-	TCU
4x1	1	39.22	-	-	Baylor
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
4x4	10	3:01.60	-	-	Florida
4x4	8	3:01.63	-	-	LSU
4x4	6	3:02.19	-	-	Texas A&M
4x4	5	3:02.67	-	-	Ohio State
4x4	4	3:03.11	-	-	Illinois
4x4	3	3:03.13	-	-	South Carolina
4x4	2	3:03.47	-	-	Texas Tech
4x4	1	3:03.82	-	-	BYU
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
HJ	10	2.31m	Jacorian Duffield	SR	Texas Tech
HJ	8	2.30m	Bryan McBride	SR	Arizona State
HJ	5.5	2.29m	Marcus Jackson	SR	Mississippi State
HJ	5.5	2.29m	Bradley Adkins	JR	Texas Tech
HJ	3	2.28m	Christoff Bryan	FR	Kansas State
HJ	3	2.28m	Wally Ellenson	JR	Marquette
HJ	3	2.28m	James White	SR	Nebraska
HJ	1	2.26m	Torian Ware	SR	Clemson
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
PV	10	5.91m	Shawn Barber	JR	Akron
PV	8	5.80m	Jake Blankenship	JR	Tennessee
PV	6	5.65m	Adrian Valles	FR	Cincinnati
PV	5	5.56m	Chase Wolfle	JR	Texas A&M
PV	4	5.54m	Pauls Pujats	SR	Memphis
PV	3	5.53m	Dylan Duvio	SO	Stanford
PV	1.5	5.50m	Dylan Bell	JR	Air Force
PV	1.5	5.50m	Braydon Bringhurst	SR	BYU
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
LJ	10	8.39m	Jarrion Lawson	JR	Arkansas
LJ	8	8.28m	Marquis Dendy	SR	Florida
LJ	6	8.05m	Stefan Brits	JR	Florida State
LJ	5	8.00m	Laderrick Ward	SR	SIU-Edwardsville
LJ	3.5	7.97m	Roelf Pienaar	SO	Arkansas State
LJ	3.5	7.97m	Jalen Ramsey	SO	Florida State
LJ	2	7.91m	Cameron Echols-Luper	SO	TCU
LJ	1	7.88m	Jonathan Addison	JR	North Carolina State
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
TJ	10	17.37m	Marquis Dendy	SR	Florida
TJ	8	17.18m	Latario Collie	JR	Texas A&M
TJ	6	16.84m	Donald Scott	SR	Eastern Michigan
TJ	5	16.59m	Felix Obi	SO	Baylor
TJ	4	16.55m	Ben Williams	SO	Louisville
TJ	3	16.44m	Matthew Oneal	JR	South Florida
TJ	2	16.32m	Jonathan Reid	SR	Florida State
TJ	1	16.29m	Jeremiah Green	SO	Alabama
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
SP	10	21.39m	Ryan Crouser	SR	Texas
SP	8	21.11m	Stipe Zunic	SR	Florida
SP	6	20.86m	Darrell Hill	SR	Penn State
SP	5	20.79m	Stephen Mozia	SR	Cornell
SP	4	20.75m	Jonathan Jones	SR	Buffalo
SP	3	20.39m	Nick Vena	SR	Georgia
SP	1.5	20.16m	JC Murasky	JR	Ohio State
SP	1.5	20.16m	Filip Mihaljevic	SO	Virginia
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
DT	10	65.04m	Rodney Brown	SR	LSU
DT	8	64.51m	Tavis Bailey	SR	Tennessee
DT	6	63.90m	Ryan Crouser	SR	Texas
DT	5	63.74m	Hayden Reed	SO	Alabama
DT	4	63.11m	Filip Mihaljevic	SO	Virginia
DT	3	62.27m	Jordan Young	SO	Virginia
DT	2	62.13m	Sam Mattis	JR	Penn
DT	1	62.05m	Kole Weldon	SR	Texas Tech
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
HT	10	77.20m	Conor McCullough	SR	USC
HT	8	75.29m	Michael Lihrman	SR	Wisconsin
HT	6	73.57m	Matthias Tayala	SR	Kent State
HT	5	72.77m	Chukwuebuka Enekwechi	JR	Purdue
HT	4	70.84m	Tomas Kruzliak	JR	Virginia Tech
HT	3	70.73m	Jordan Young	SO	Virginia
HT	2	70.57m	Greg Skipper	JR	Oregon
HT	1	70.08m	Alex Poursanidis	SO	Georgia
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
JT	10	81.55m	John Ampomah	JR	Middle Tennessee State
JT	8	80.80m	Sam Crouser	SR	Oregon
JT	6	78.58m	Raymond Dykstra	SR	Kentucky
JT	5	78.41m	Ioannis Kyriazis	FR	Texas A&M
JT	4	77.47m	MaCauley Garton	SR	Missouri
JT	3	75.62m	Curtis Thompson	FR	Mississippi State
JT	2	75.24m	Kyle Smith	SR	Virginia
JT	1	75.07m	Devin Bogert	SR	Texas A&M
EVENT	PTS	PB	ATHLETE	YR	SCHOOL
DEC	10	8326	Maicel Uibo	JR	Georgia
DEC	8	8232	Garrett Scantling	SR	Georgia
DEC	6	8068	Dakotah Keys	SR	Oregon
DEC	5	7862	Solomon Ijah	JR	Eastern Michigan
DEC	4	7823	Pau Tonnesen	JR	Arizona
DEC	3	7699	Mike Morgan	JR	Buffalo
DEC	2	7679	Harrison Williams	FR	Stanford
DEC	1	7635	Luca Wieland	SO	Minnesota