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BLUE CARPET

Every athlete strives to be recognized for their craft, to have others appreciate the hard work and sacrifice that went in to sculpting a fine-tuned performance. This desire to be seen drives us to become better, and subsequently, turns even the most mundane or gruesome workout into just another obstacle to be conquered. An athletic goal comes interwoven with the promise of a higher standing and greater respect from one’s peers, and oftentimes, that’s enough to make us sacrifice everything else that might get in the way. 

 

In collegiate distance running, there exists a very concrete way in which athletes can prove themselves to be outstanding and elite, and therefore, garner the acclaim to justify the incredible amount of difficulty it took to earn it. It comes with a curious title— All-American— but it is certainly the most quantifiable proof of an athlete’s worth, and it’s a title than even those not familiar with the sport know, having undoubtably heard it used in other realms. The standard in order to attach the illustrious title to an athlete’s name is simple— finish top-40 at the NCAA Cross Country Championships. 

 

The All-America honor in collegiate cross country is the biggest measuring stick of ability, even if it only takes into account the performance in one race. You’ll hear countless athletes share their intention and desire to join this elite club, as the accessibility of a top-40 finish makes it attainable for literally hundreds of runners. It’s the greatest indicator of XC worth, and the prestigious club will crown a new class this Saturday in Louisville. 

 

Here are my projected All-Americans at the 2015 NCAA XC Championships:

 

#1 Edward Cheserek (Oregon)

He was surprised by Thomas Curtin at Pre-Nats, but this is the NCAA Championships, the King’s domain if you will. Cheserek is undroppable, which combined with his world class closing speed, makes him unstoppable. A third straight title is unprecedented, and puts him at the front of the GOAT discussion. 

 

#2 Anthony Rotich (UTEP)

Rotich was 4th at NCAAs the last time it was in Louisville, and he finished just .7 seconds behind Cheserek at Pre-Nats. The four-time NCAA champion will make Ches earn it, but even his past success on this course won’t carry him past the King.  

 

#3 Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)

The Aussie has gone off his last two races— he beat runner-up Jonathan Green by 21 seconds at Big East and then 26 seconds at Mid-Atlantic, and Green is certainly no slouch (6th at Pre-Nats.) It is concerning that Tiernan has never run the tricky Louisville course, but he’s in better form than I’ve ever seen him and excels on flat courses. 

 

#4 Jonah Koech (UTEP)

Undoubtably the top freshman in the country, Koech should enter his first NCAA Championship with an extra bounce in his step after winning the Mountain Region. The Kenyan has run stride for stride with his teammate Rotich all season— the pair have finished an average of .4 seconds apart in the last four races— and I’m not entirely sure if we’ve seen him at his best yet. 

 

#5 Marc Scott (Tulsa)

The Brit has taken his game to another level after his 14th place NCAA finish last season, and he enters this year’s championship race undefeated in 2015. His signature win at the Wisconsin Invite showed elite-level closing speed that not even big names like Sean McGorty or Justyn Knight could match. 

 

#6 Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech)

His victory over Cheserek at Pre-Nats was the biggest shocker of the 2015 season, and it signaled the firm arrival of a man who had never previously won a collegiate cross country race. Curtin is a fearless front-runner who doesn’t mind the extra strain of leading, and now he’s found the fitness to match his aggressive style. 

 

#7 Justyn Knight (Syracuse)

Knight has turned his 143rd place finish at NCAAs last season into a distant memory with his brilliant sophomore campaign, as he now spearheads Syracuse’s three-headed attack. His stock shot up tremendously during the track season— he broke four indoors and finished sixth in the NCAA outdoor 5K— but Knight has surpassed my expectations for his 2015 XC campaign by becoming the best runner on one of the three best teams in the country. 

 

#8 Sean McGorty (Stanford)

After a clutch 20th place finish that helped Stanford grab second at NCAAs a year ago, McGorty has taken the next logical step to join the nation’s elite. The runner-up at PAC-12s has gone on to place top-10 at NCAAs each of the last nine seasons, and that should continue with the Cardinal junior in 2015. 

 

#9 Mason Ferlic (Michigan)

Ferlic should be feeling very good about himself after avenging his conference loss to Matt McClintock by winning the Great Lakes region last weekend, and that combined with his 13th place finish at NCAAs a year ago makes him top-10 material. The Michigan senior won the Greater Louisville Classic earlier this season on the championship course. 

 

#10 Pierce Murphy (Colorado)

You knew a Buffalo was coming sooner or later, and Pierce Murphy fits the bill here as he’s led the two-time defending NCAA champions at every race this season. In a year where the #1 Buffs haven’t been quite as formidable as expected, the senior Murphy has been a notable exception with his fifth place finish at Pre-Nats followed by a fourth place showing at PAC-12s. 

 

#11 Joe Rosa (Stanford)

Rosa was in much better shape than his 33rd place finish last year in Terre Haute indicated, and now a season later, the fifth year senior will look to take advantage of his remarkably high level of fitness built up in the wake of another injury-plagued spring. Having his brother next to him at the NCAA Championships for the first time in three seasons should help.

 

#12 Matt McClintock (Purdue)

The only blemish on McClintock’s 2015 resume is a dismal 27th place finish at Pre-Nats, but given his sterling record otherwise— most notably a Big 10 title over Ferlic— that’s just a throwaway. 

 

#13 Colin Bennie (Syracuse)

One of the most improved runners in the country, Bennie’s drastic jump is a microcosm for ‘Cuse’s sudden presence in the NCAA title discussion. From 95th in 2014— which rounded out the scoring for the fifth place Orange— the sophomore is now transitioning into the #2 role behind Knight as the pair, plus last year’s #1 Martin Hehir, continue to wreak havoc at the front of the pack. 

 

#14 Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville)

The Kenyan’s 2014 and 2015 stat sheets are not too different, but small improvements at Pre-Nats and ACCs makes me think he’ll be better than 23rd at NCAAs as he was last year. Kibichiy finished 16 seconds behind winner Thomas Curtin at Pre-Nats, but the gap between him and the VA Tech star was less than seven seconds at the Southeast region, which in a vacuum suggests that he’s better over the longer distance.  

 

#15 Jonathan Green (Georgetown)

It seems hypocritical that for some athletes their Pre-Nats performance is being viewed as non-consequential while for others it is proof of their NCAA potential, and Green certainly falls in the latter category despite the inconsistency in rationale. The Georgetown sophomore was sixth at the mid-season classic, and combined with his two runner-ups at Big East and Mid-Atlantic, should yield a top-15 showing at NCAAs. Hey, no one said this predicting business was easy. 

 

#16 Morgan Pearson (Colorado)

On paper, Pearson doesn’t have a top-20 caliber resume in 2015, but it all comes back to the fact that he’s been here before and I’m confident that Wetmore will have his unit in peak form on Saturday. The senior was only 14th at PAC-12s, but he was just 18th at the same race in 2013, the year he went on to finish 17th at NCAAs. 

 

#17 Shaun Thompson (Duke)

Thompson was a healthy redshirt in 2014, similar to CU’s Pearson, and that decision is clearly paying its dividends as the Duke senior has arrived on the national stage despite only having a 191st place finish at NCAAs to his credit. Thompson is the only man to beat Thomas Curtin this season, albeit at a small season-opening meet. 

 

#18 Erik Peterson (Butler)

What if I told you that Erik Peterson ran the fastest 10K by an NCAA athlete last spring? His 28:26 didn’t receive a just amount of attention since he competed unattached, but that performance combined with his 22nd place finish at NCAAs in 2014 makes him a top-20 guy in 2015. 

 

#19 Ammar Moussa (Colorado)

I know that I should probably have Moussa higher considering he was fifth a year ago, but look at the guys ahead of him. Top-10 seems like a tall order for the second straight year, but given his seventh place finish at PAC-12s, there's no way that he falls out of the top-20.

 

#20 Martin Hehir (Syracuse)

Hehir has gone from Syracuse’s unquestioned #1 man in 2014 to now suddenly their third, which is more of a testament to Knight and Bennie’s meteoric rise than anything else. The Orange senior has actually improved on most accounts, lowering his placing in three out of four meets compared to the year before. His 28:27 10K best is proof that the extra 2K benefits him greatly. 

 

#21 Jacob Burcham (Oklahoma)

It took awhile for the “prep phenom” Jacob Burcham to transition into the “NCAA elite” Jacob Burcham, but finally this cross country season we’ve witnessed the arrival of a guy whose 4:02 high school PR implied that he’d be in the top pack at NCAAs much sooner (no pun intended, seriously!) The junior improved 101 places at Wisco from a year ago, and finished just 1.5 seconds behind Tulsa’s Scott at Regionals. 

 

#22 Cerake Geberkidane (Oklahoma State)

This pick is a bit of a risk since Geberkidane’s collection of scalps doesn’t include many big names, especially considering he was only 126th at NCAAs as a frosh, but he’s been the Cowboys #1 in all but one race this season. A victory at the Cowboy Jamboree isn’t exactly a marquee win, but hey, it’s something. 

 

#23 Lane Werley (UCLA)

Werley placed 25th at NCAAs the last time it was in Louisville three years ago, and his fifth place finish at PAC-12s matches his conference showing from 2012.  

 

#24 Sam Parsons (N.C. State)

Parsons has benefited greatly from having Washington transfer Meron Simon to train with, and the pair have been crucial in bringing the Wolfpack back to national prominence after a year of irrelevance. His 15th place finish at Wisco is a great indicator of his NCAA worth. 

 

#25 Ben Saarel (Colorado)

This is as far as I could let him slip. Saarel has finished top-10 each of his first two seasons, but he doesn’t have a single performance in 2015 that suggests he’s capable of going 3-for-3. He was a mediocre 21st at the Mountain region on Friday in his first race in uniform after dealing with a sickness throughout the early part of the fall, which of course is troubling. But we’re not seeing what Wetmore is seeing, and he certainly wouldn’t waste a year of eligibility if Saarel was getting dropped in workouts. With some rust knocked off, he won’t fall out of the top 25. 

 

#26 Jefferson Abbey (Colorado State)

Abbey has enjoyed a steady rise up the NCAA ranks throughout his collegiate career, and he has the benefit of me watching him win Roy Griak as one of the primary reasons I think he’ll crash into the top-30. Basically, he passed the eye test and 26th is a reasonable jump from 73rd a year ago. 

 

#27 Jim Rosa (Stanford)

Oh what a tangled web he weaves. The second Rosa could literally finish anywhere from fifth to 100th, as his two races in 2015 have not dismissed the notion that he’s likely still dealing with the lingering effects of an injury. Since he was just 20th at PAC-12s, a top-30 finish would equate to a solid performance for Jim, but let’s not forget that he was fifth just two years ago. The talent is still there.

 

#28 Chartt Miller (Iona)

I had to put a Gael in here at some point, and I wrestled with it being Miller or his teammate Kieran Clements, but ultimately I settled on the former because of his solid eighth place finish at Wisco. The sophomore knows the course, having finished third at Greater Louisville early this season, and should therefore make a solid jump from his 76th place finish in Terre Haute last fall.

 

#29 Izaic Yorks (Washington)

Before this year, Yorks was known solely as a track guy, but the senior has moved swiftly to change that narrative in 2015 by finishing seventh at Wisco and third at PAC-12s. Yorks has credited his abrupt XC improvement (he was 57th at Wisco last season) on a change in mindset— if you have a minute, check out this feature— which switched on at the UW Invite and has propelled him to All-American potential despite a 159th place finish at NCAAs in 2014. I still have some reservations on his ability over 10,000m, however— he is a miler after all— so 29th seems appropriate with that in mind. 

 

#30 Meron Simon (N.C. State)

The fifth year senior has gone from an NCAA also-ran— he was 154th at NCAAs in 2014— to now top-30 consideration seemingly in the span of his transfer from Washington to N.C. State. While his step up in ability cannot be credited simply to a coaching change, Simon is a different beast entirely from the runner I saw a year ago. Maybe he just needed a change in scenery, but whatever it is, going from 150th at Wisco to 23rd is no small order. 

 

#31 Grant Fisher (Stanford)

I have so little to base this projection off of— he’s raced just twice this season— but this is Grant Fisher we’re talking about, one of the greatest high school distance runners in history. Yes, he got beat by Dressel at PAC-12s, and yes, this will be his 10K debut, but Fisher is fully capable of this placing given the talent he possesses. For Stanford to ruin CU’s dynasty, the much-hyped freshman needs to be at least this good in Louisville. 

 

#32 Thomas Awad (Penn)

The two-time Heps champ falls in the category of “guys that have been so good in the past that I can’t imagine them not being top-40.” Yeah, that’s a category. Anyways, I have to utilize that rule to find a place for Awad among the All-Americans because otherwise, his 2015 resume doesn’t cut it. Sure he won Heps for the second straight year, but his distant fourth place finish at Mid-Atlantic is concerning. Still though, I’m holding steady that his NCAA experience (27th in 2014), and his speed (13:33) will pull him through.  

 

#33 Jerrell Mock (Colorado State)

Mock was quietly one of the best freshmen in the country last season— his 53rd place finish in Terre Haute was the best by a true freshman in 2014. His ascent to NCAA’s upper echelon is not yet complete, but given his dominating victory at the Mountain West Championships, he’s ready for it.   

 

#34 John Mascari (Indiana State)

It’s scary to think that I almost didn’t put the two-time All-American Mascari in my top-40. But it’s also scary that the Indiana State senior almost didn’t qualify for NCAAs just one year after finishing eighth at Nationals. An injury has limited his effectiveness in 2015—he was fifth at Pre-Nats last season and 30th this year— but his sixth place at the Great Lakes region tells me he’s just healthy enough to nab a medal. 

 

#35 Aaron Fletcher (BYU)

The senior Fletcher has swapped the #1 man role with his freshman teammate Dallin Farnsworth on several occasions in 2015, but I think experience rules on this stage. Fletcher proved himself with a solid 18th place finish at Wisco, two seconds behind Farnsworth, but he took his biggest step forward by winning the West Coast Conference title, a full nine seconds ahead of the talented frosh. This pick is risky, no doubt— Fletcher was 102nd in Terre Haute last year— but the Cougars are podium contenders with him and Farnsworth running their best, which they currently are. 

 

#36 John Dressel (Colorado)

The main reason that we often see freshmen make extraordinary gains in just their first few months on campus is their new (much stronger) training partners— a top-5 Foot Locker guy goes from running workouts alone in high school to suddenly struggling just to avoid getting dropped. That generally does the trick. So of course, given the talented group that surrounds him, it makes sense that I’m slotting John Dressel here. After all, he was sixth at PAC-12s, ahead of Grant Fisher.   

 

#37 John Whelan (Washington State)

I made a joke earlier in the week about not knowing anyone from Washington State, but make no mistake, I’ve been impressed by the junior Whelan’s last two races after a sub-par 47th place finish at Pre-Nats. First, he was ninth at PAC-12s (a 39 place improvement from a year ago), and on Friday he was the West region runner-up behind Cheserek. Sure, he beat a bunch of guys who were taking it easy— namely, Stanford’s top 3— but it came just a year after Whelan was 54th at regionals. That’s no joke. 

 

#38 Patrick Corona (Air Force)

Probably not a name that a lot of NCAA fans are familiar with, but Corona has been solid in each of his four races in 2015, with his runner-up finish at Mountain West and fourth place showing at Regionals just the latest examples. The senior was 12th in his de facto course preview at Pre-Nats. 

 

#39 Tyler King (Washington)

King finished lucky no. 40 at NCAAs last year to collect the last All-American honor, and I’ve got him right around the same spot coming off his best race of the year at the West region (5th). The season has been bumpy otherwise— an 83rd place finish at Wisco doesn’t instill much confidence— but the Husky makes a considerable leap when the distance goes up to 10K. 

 

#40 Connor Winter (Colorado)

I’m gonna take some heat for this. Yes, I know Connor Winter was 24th in Terre Haute last year, and yes, I also know that he was ninth at Pre-Nats last month. The concern I have is with the senior’s last two races— a 15th place showing at PAC-12s, followed by his 23rd place dud at Regionals. And of course I’m smart enough to know that any regional performance should generally be thrown out the window, but consider Winter’s finishes at the same two races from 2014: 5th at PAC-12s, and 4th at Regionals. I still think he’s going to notch another All-American nod, but only barely given his recent slip.