The entire landscape of the women’s individual battle has shifted from last season, due in large part to just 10 members of the 2014 top-40 at NCAAs returning for the 2015 NCAA Championships. Last year’s champ Kate Avery went pro early, graduation played a heavy role, and injuries hit many talented ladies hard this year. 

 

What remains from the carnage is an intriguing individual battle, which has a favorite in the form of Boise State freshman Allie Ostrander. No one thought the 2014 NXN champion would take off this quickly, but she has the potential to become the first frosh to win a cross country national title since 1985. Her recent domination suggests that history will be rewritten in Louisville. 

 

Standing in her way is an experienced trio of seniors in Molly Seidel, Aisling Cuffe, and Dom Scott, who are each seeking their first XC crown. History is working against Seidel and Cuffe as well, as the former Foot Locker champions each look to become the first athlete to win both of the top high school and college championships. The Foot Locker curse is vulnerable to say the least. 

 

The plot is thick with storylines and I’ve made my picks for all 40 All-Americans below:

 

#1 Allie Ostrander (Boise State)

Three decades of history tells me not to pick a freshman to win the women’s NCAA title, but otherwise, all else points to Allie Ostrander winning in Louisville. She took down two of her biggest competitors, Seidel and Scott, at Wisco, and her last two races have been utter blowouts, winning the Mountain West and the West region by an average of 18.5 seconds. 

 

#2 Molly Seidel (Notre Dame)

The tremendous weight of the Foot Locker curse stands in Seidel’s way of claiming the NCAA XC title, but even that pales in comparison to the beast that is Allie O. Seidel has been similarly dominant in her last two outings, winning ACCs and the Great Lakes region by an average of 23 seconds. Ostrander gets the nod because of Wisco, but experience matters, and Seidel is the reigning 10K champion. 

 

#3 Aisling Cuffe (Stanford)

Cuffe’s case is a perplexing one, because she, like Seidel, is a past Foot Locker champion, and she hasn’t raced either of the two ladies above her on this list in 2015. The fifth-year senior sat out all of last year with an injury, but owns a fourth place finish at NCAAs from 2013 and she’s proved her fitness this season by winning PAC-12s. Cuffe skipped Pre-Nats and Regionals, however, which either is Milt resting his injury-prone star, or a sign that Cuffe is still dealing with lingering effects. Either way, I can’t see her taking down Ostrander or Seidel. 

 

#4 Dom Scott (Arkansas)

Scott’s sixth place finish in Terre Haute last year makes her the top returner from 2014, and she’s undoubtably improved her XC strength from a year ago to now. She hung tough with Ostrander and Seidel at Wisco, finishing third, and her two dominating victories at SECs and Regionals served as a nice appetizer for the Louisville madness. 

 

#5 Chelsea Blaase (Tennessee)

The Tennessee senior is super underrated. In the last year, she’s racked up All-American honors in XC (10th), the indoor 5K (fourth), and outdoor 10K (sixth). This season has played out accordingly, with Blaase finishing third at Pre-Nats and runner-up at SECs. 

 

#6 Courtney Frerichs (New Mexico)

Something tells me we haven’t seen Frerichs go for broke in 2015, as I believe she’s saved a bit herself for the greater cause of pack-running with the rest of the Lobos. Even so, her record this season is impeccable—fourth at Wisco and second at Mountain West— and she certainly has the pedigree to crack the top-5. 

 

#7 Hannah Everson (Air Force)

The Air Force senior is the breakout star of the 2015 season, well, besides Allie O of course. Everson was only 21st in the NCAA 10K in June, her first appearance at a national championship, which in no way indicated that she would go on to finish second at Pre-Nats and win the Mountain region. That’s exactly what she’s done, however, and it signals a big day this Saturday in Louisville.

 

#8 Sarah Collins (Providence)

Despite missing nearly 15 months worth of racing as a result of injury, Providence’s Sarah Collins has returned just as good as ever in 2015, with her dominant, 15-second victory at Big East serving as the best example. The Friar was 10th at NCAAs back in 2012 on this same course, and her recent success should yield a similar result in 2015. 

 

#9 Kaitlyn Benner (Colorado)

Benner is trending in the right direction heading into NCAAs. The sophomore has finished runner-up in two consecutive outings— PAC-12s and the Mountain region— beating her All-American teammate Erin Clark twice in the process. 

 

#10 Rhona Auckland (New Mexico)

Maybe we reached by ranking Auckland as our #1 individual in the preseason, but her 19th place finish at World XC in March is still steady in the back of my mind. The Brit is just too talented to drop out of the top-10 here, even if she’s fallen out of the NCAA individual title discussion. Fifth at Wisco has been her best outing of 2015. 

 

#11 Anna Rohrer (Notre Dame)

In a year where Ryen Frazier’s early season theatrics and Ostrander’s mid-season onslaught has stolen the frosh headlines, the two-time Foot Locker champion Rohrer has remained mostly in the shadows despite having a brilliant freshman campaign. Two straight runner-up finishes to teammate Molly Seidel is great sign, and it goes without saying how crucial the Irish senior has been in Rohrer’s development this season. 

 

#12 Alice Wright (New Mexico)

Another Lobo, and another lock to finish top-15. Wright was 20th at NCAAs in 2014, and that was before Frerichs, Auckland, and Molly Renfer arrived on campus. The sophomore sat out Regionals, adding yet another advantage to the overwhelming favorites to win the team title. A rested Wright will have no trouble sticking near the top pack. 

 

#13 Erin Clark (Colorado) 

This may end up being a drastic undervalue of Clark’s abilities, especially considering she won Pre-Nats, but ultimately you end up comparing different races on different courses to each other, and certain athletes slip simply because of the faulty predicting method. Clark was 31st at NCAAs last season, so 13th would be a solid jump nonetheless. 

 

#14 Erin Finn (Michigan)

The Big 10 champion’s regional performance was a bit concerning— Finn was fifth and nearly 40 seconds behind winner Molly Seidel. Yes, it was just Regionals, but that lengthy of a gap takes her out of top-10 consideration in my eyes. Still though, a sixth place finish at Pre-Nats should give her confidence at NCAAs on the same course. 

 

#15 Waverly Neer (Oregon)

Neer has been Oregon’s best runner each of the last three meets, including a fifth place finish at PAC-12s and runner-up showing at the West region. She was only 62nd at NCAAs last fall, but that was off an abbreviated season that included just one race before Nationals. With a full season of work behind her, Neer cracks the top-15.  

 

#16 Dana Giordano (Dartmouth)

Giordano missed out on a much higher finish at NCAAs last year due in part to a nasty fall 1K into  the race, and barring another tumble, she should drastically improve on her 45th place finish. She’s already notched an All-American honor earlier in her career (31st in 2013), and her victory in the Northeast region was a great sign of things to come. 

 

#17 Erin Teschuk (North Dakota State)

The Canadian Teschuk is tough to project against an NCAA field because she hasn’t faced any elite competition this year and she doesn’t own a past performance at Nationals that would indicate a top-20 placing. However, the NDSU senior had a huge track season, racking up three All-American honors between indoor and outdoor, and she’s undefeated thus far in 2015. That’s enough for me. 

 

#18 Calli Thackery (New Mexico)

The fourth in the so-called “Fab Four,” Thackery has been even better than expected this season for New Mexico, another reason why the Lobos have been so formidable in 2015. Thackery improved from 53rd at Wisco in 2014 to sixth this season, a great sign that she’ll destroy her 45th place finish from Terre Haute. 

 

#19 Maddie Meyers (Washington)

Meyers is a proven member of the NCAA’s elite, owning a 27th place finish at Nationals from 2014. Her third place showing at PAC-12s was a slight improvement from a year prior, and that’s a trend I think she’ll continue in Louisville. 

 

#20 Letitia Saayman (Coastal Carolina)

The South African is an entirely different athlete from the one that placed 110th at NCAAs in 2014, and her victory last Friday at the Southeast region is solid proof. Additionally, Saayman notched an 11th place finish at Pre-Nats to bolster her case. 

 

#21 Blanca Fernandez (Temple)

I would venture to say that few people have heard much about Temple’s Blanca Fernandez, but that will change after this weekend. In just her first (and only) NCAA XC season, the Spaniard has gone undefeated in 2015, including a win last Friday at the Mid-Atlantic region. Sure, Fernandez has yet to race the nation’s elite, but her flawless record speaks for itself. 

 

#22 Maddie Alm (Colorado)

Alm had similar performances this year at PAC-12s and Regionals compared to last season, where she ultimately went on to place 51st at NCAAs in 2014. With her teammates Benner and Clark showing great improvement this season, I think Alm makes a big jump at Nationals in 2015 as she works with them throughout the race. 

 

#23 Alexis Wiersma (Michigan State)

It’s been a challenging year in Lansing for the defending NCAA champs, but Ali Wiesma’s marked improvement has been the exception. Without their entire top-5 from Terre Haute last fall, Wiersma has stepped in to lead the Spartans in the last three races, including a runner-up finish at Big Ten’s. An 11-second beating of Michigan’s Finn at Regionals is a great sign. 

 

#24 Alyssa Schneider (Illinois)

The Illini senior has made huge strides this season, going from 58th at the Big Ten Championships a year ago to third in 2015. Her presence in the top-25 received a boost in probability when Schneider finished second last weekend at the Midwest region. 

#25 Hannah McInturff (Utah)

McInturff is a big reason that Utah is heading to NCAAs for the first time in school history, as the sophomore netted a fifth place finish at Pre-Nats and a 10th place showing at PAC-12s. That’s quite a bit better than her 107th and 61st finishes at the same meets in 2014. 

 

#26 Christina Melian (Stony Brook)

Melian collected several legit scalps when she won the season-opening Battle in Beantown, and she further proved herself by finishing 10th at Pre-Nats. Coming up just a half-second short of Providence’s Sarah Collins at Regionals is a great tune-up for her first ever appearance at Nationals. 

 

#27 Brenna Peloquin (Boise State)

Understandably, Allie O attracts most of the attention at Boise State, but her fellow freshman Brenna Peloquin has slowly been building to All-American potential throughout the season. Fourth in the West region is remarkable for someone who was just 50th at NXN last fall, but having the NXN champ/NCAA favorite to chase around in workouts is clearly working wonders for Peloquin. 

 

#28 Molly Renfer (New Mexico)

Perhaps the single most remarkable factor of New Mexico’s path to NCAA domination is Harvard transfer Molly Renfer’s rise to become the Lobos #5. Her move to Albuquerque has seen her to go from 128th at Wisco in 2014 to 10th in 2015, rounding out New Mexico’s five scorers. She’ll be tasked with a similar mission this weekend, and a spot in the top-30 for Renfer will seal the deal for coach Joe Franklin. 

 

#29 Maggie Montoya (Baylor)

Montoya had a great day at NCAAs last fall to finish 44th, but she’s clearly ready for a lot more in 2015 after her runner-up finish at the South region. 11th at Wisco was proof of great things to come.  

 

#30 Margo Malone (Syracuse)

This is Malone’s last chance to crack the top-40 after missing out each of the last two seasons, and I think the Orange senior gets the job done after her best build-up to NCAAs to date. Despite striking out in 2013 and 2014, third time will be a charm for her after finishing third at ACCs for the second straight season. 

 

#32 Perez Rotich (Iowa State)

The Big 12 champ took it easy at the Midwest region, finishing 12th, a similar recipe that helped two of her Cyclone teammates finish top-10 last season. Rotich improved her Wisco finish by 60 places from 2014, and a big jump from her 65th spot in Terre Haute should be coming on Saturday. 

 

#33 Sharon Lokedi (Kansas)

The Kenyan had a career day at Pre-Nats when she finished fourth, and could be primed for a much higher finish if she runs more like that version of herself instead of the one that stumbled to 11th place in the Big 12. Third at the Midwest region suggests that the former will show up at NCAAs.

 

#33 Elizabeth Bird (Princeton)

The Heps champ has taken over leadership duties for Princeton in All-American Megan Curham’s absence, and she’s done an admirable job, finishing 14th at Wisco before taking the conference title by eight seconds over Dartmouth’s Giordano. 

 

#34 Alli Cash (Oregon)

Despite one really bad day at Pre-Nats (53rd), Cash has been money for Oregon this season (I’m really sorry, but I had to.) Sixth at PAC-12s and again at Regionals is All-American material. 

 

#35 Courtney Smith (Harvard)

Smith finished just two places behind Princeton’s Elizabeth Bird at Wisco, a 16th place finish that marked her arrival on the national stage. The sophomore didn’t have a great day at Regionals (5th, 16 seconds behind winner Giordano), but she’s been spectacular otherwise in 2015. 

 

#36 Cleo Boyd (Virginia)

Boyd has led #8 Virginia at all but one race in 2015, and her fourth place finish at ACCs helped the Cavaliers escape with a narrow win over N.C. State. The senior was only seventh in the Southeast regional, but with her team easily taking the team title, I think Boyd was coasting. 

 

#37 Lauren Mullins (Providence)

If the Friars plan on finishing on the podium, they’ll need more than just Sarah Collins in the top-40. Luckily, junior Lauren Mullins fits that bill. Runner-up at Big East, Mullins took it easy at the Northeast region to finish 11th. 

 

#38 Natalie Schudrowitz (Brown)

It’s been a great year for the Ivy League ladies, and Schudrowitz’s appearance on this list marks the fourth athlete from the conference I believe will be top-40. The Brown sophomore had a career day with her seventh place finish at Pre-Nats, and should feel confident in Louisville because of that. 

 

#39 Ednah Kurgat (Liberty)

The freshman finished just three seconds behind Coastal Carolina’s Saayman at the Southeast regional, that after spotting her 24 seconds two weeks prior at the Big South Championships. That type of improvement this weekend would certainly put the Kenyan in the top-40 mix. 

 

#40 Ryen Frazier (N.C. State)

What a great way to end this list. I thought Frazier was an NCAA contender when she won Notre Dame back in early October, but two sub-par days at Wisco (38th) and the Southeast (18th) have hurt her stock tremendously. In between those two races, however, was a fifth place finish at ACCs, and if the frosh can avoid going out too hard, she certainly should be an All-American.