D1 NCAA XC Championships

NCAA XC Men's Team Projections: Top 4 Podium Picks

NCAA XC Men's Team Projections: Top 4 Podium Picks

Nov 18, 2015 by Meg Bellino
NCAA XC Men's Team Projections: Top 4 Podium Picks



MEN'S TOP 40 PICKS | MEN'S PODIUM PICKS | WOMEN'S TOP 40 PICKS | WOMEN'S PODIUM PICKS

You can check out our final Saucony Flo50 top 25 rankings here, but take a closer look into our final podium team picks.

No. 1 Colorado Buffaloes



The No. 1 ranked Colorado Buffaloes are seeking their third-consecutive National Championship on Saturday. Are you surprised? The Buffs' reign began in 2013 when Ben Saarel, then a young pup, finished eighth and their top five had zero seniors in the line-up. The future looked even more promising when then-junior Ammar Moussa improved 90 places (95th to 5th) in 2014 to lead this team to their second win. And that’s the factor that this team has above the rest; they’re a group of seven interchangeable athletes that all want the same thing. Sure you can say that about every team competing in this weekend’s races, but are they as talented as Colorado? Five of their athletes earned All American honors (top 40) last season and they redshirted Morgan Pearson (17th in 2013) to fill the graduation losses of Blake Theroux and Jake Hurysz.

There’s no clear No. 1 runner, although Pierce Murphy has become their consistent leader all season. Ammar Moussa (5th in 2014), Morgan Pearson (17th in 2013) and Connor Winter (24th in 2014) are proven All Americans who finished 2 seconds within each other at Pre-Nationals. Freshman John Dressel was only 46th at Pre-Nats, but was their surprise No. 2 finisher at the Pac-12 Championships, where he finished sixth. If he trusts his experienced teammates and goes along for the ride, he could finish as the top freshman in the NCAA.

Is this team as bullet-proof as they were in 2014? Certainly not. Two-time top 10 finisher Ben Saarel ran his season debut (in uniform) in the NCAA Mountain Region and placed 21st. Though he was only the Buffaloes’ sixth runner and did not score, the talent and ability is there. He was eighth in 2013 and seventh in 2014, and although Coach Mark Wetmore entertained the idea of redshirting Saarel, he admitted to CUBuffs.com, “I became cowardly, or maybe respective of the gods of the NCAA, and just thought, ‘Let us not treat cavalierly an opportunity to win the NCAA Championship.’ That’s why we decided to put him in.”

So did Wetmore admit that the Buffaloes need Ben Saarel to win their third-consecutive title? Not exactly. But he did admit that Syracuse is “very good” and Stanford is “very, very good.” Either way, we don’t know what this season’s Saarel is capable of with only one race under his belt since the early season Rocky Mountain Shootout (where he competed unattached). But much like Ammar Moussa defying the 2014 projections and finishing fifth, Saarel could surprise us all.

No. 2 Stanford Cardinal



The Stanford Cardinal squad finished runner-up in 2014, their best place since coming in fifth in 2011. Despite bringing in some of the country’s top talent year after year, this team was struggling to put it together at the Big Dance. The addition of Harvard transfer Maksim Korolev made all the difference with his fourth-place finish, but Korolev is gone, as is 29th-place Mike Atchoo, so what’s the magic behind this new Stanford squad?

Sean McGorty (20th in 2014) is on a new level this season after coming in third at the Wisconsin Invite and earning runner-up honors at Pac-12s. He’s a reliable top 10 finisher, and leads a stellar supporting cast. Jim Rosa returned to the cross country scene for the first time since 2013 (when he finished fifth at the NCAA Championships) at Pac-12s. Though he only finished 20th, his sixth-place finish at the NCAA West Region (with teammates McGorty and Joe Rosa right behind in seventh and eighth) is a good indication that he’s fit. Obviously the NCAA race will be a more tactical affair, but even if Jim is the fifth Stanford Cardinal, a 40th-50th place finish is absolutely attainable for this 2x All American.

Joe Rosa has four cross country races under his belt since missing the entire indoor and outdoor track seasons in 2014 to injury. He was runner-up to Edward Cheserek at the Washington Invitational and finished eighth in both Pac-12 and West Region races. Though his 33rd-place finish at the 2014 NCAA Championships doesn’t match his brother’s top 10 from 2013, Joe holds the better track PRs over the mile (4:01) and 5K (13:31). Does he have better closing speed than Jim? (He was injured and missed the 2013 season when Jim finished runner-up in the Pac-12 and fifth in the NCAA) No matter which Rosa twin is first for Stanford, it’s safe to assume these brothers are both healthy this fall and prepared to take on the task that is the Colorado Buffaloes.

Sam Wharton, Garrett Sweatt, and freshman Grant Fisher are all capable of being key contributors to this Cardinal squad. Wharton was only 42nd in the West Region, but his 40th-place in that race last season translated into a 39th-place All American showing the week later in Terre Haute. Talk about coming in clutch! Where Wharton may look “off” this season, much improved Sweatt has been impressive. He was 25th at Wisconsin, 16th in the Pac-12 and 20th in the West Region. His NCAA Championship progression (195th in 2013, 68th in 2014) and new outdoor track PRs from last spring (13:54 5K, 28:51 10K) show he’s on the upswing, perfect for this potential storybook Stanford season. And though Fisher only has one race under his belt in the Cardinal uniform, his historic high school success makes him a factor. He finished 11th in the Pac-12, 9 seconds behind Colorado frosh Dressel and 14 seconds ahead of Oregon’s newcomer Matthew Maton. Whether Fisher will crumble over the last 2K is up for debate, but Dressel handled it nicely in the Mountain Region so surely Fisher has the potential to steal the top frosh honors, right?

Stanford’s biggest problem that may lead to a non-podium finish? The inconsistency of the Rosa twins, see article here, Fisher’s inexperience over 10K, and the fact that this team cannot afford to lose any of their top players if they want to end the reign of Colorado.

No. 3 Syracuse Orange



The team with the best 1-2-3 in the NCAA will improve upon their fifth-place 2014 finish and find themselves on the podium this weekend, but where will they end up? Syracuse was good last year with podium potential, one could even say they just had an unlucky day in Terre Haute. Though they won the competitive Wisconsin Invite and ACC Championship, they ended up with 18 points more points than NAU. But what a difference a year can make.

Justyn Knight, Martin Hehir and rising stud Collin Bennie have morphed into a scary trio that has the ability to race together AND finish together. Results don’t lie:

Battle in Beantown:
Justyn Knight, 1st 23:51
Martin Hehir, 3rd 23:54
Colin Bennie 4th 23:54
Wisconsin Invite:
Knight, 2nd 23:35
Hehir, 4th 23:36
Bennie, 6th 23:38
ACC Championships:
Knight, 2nd 23:24
Bennie, 4th 23:31
Hehir, 5th 23:37
NCAA Northeast Regional
Knight, 1st 30:28
Bennie, 2nd 30:29
Hehir, 3rd 30:30

We knew Hehir was good. He was an All American last fall, ran 7:53/13:35/28:27 last track season and won some ACC titles along the way. The improvement of Knight and Bennie however really helped elevate the Orange to national contenders this fall. Knight redshirted the indoor season to represent Canada at the Pan American XC Cup (1st) and World Junior XC Championships in Qingzhen, China (25th). Oh, and he ran 3:59:51 in the mile to break the Canadian Jr. record. But then he ran 3:39/13:34 outdoors, the 5K being his second Canadian Jr. record. Knight proved himself by finishing sixth in the stacked NCAA Outdoor 5K and is now a top five contender in the NCAA. Didn’t I say one year makes a big difference?

Bennie made solid strides throughout 2014-2015, culminating in a 14th-place finish in the 5K at the NCAA Outdoor Championships. His improvement from last fall (Example: 56th at Wisconsin Invite to 6th in 23:38 - over 40 seconds faster) has made all the difference for this squad (who lost top returner MJ Erb to Ole Miss). In fact, Bennie’s worst finish all year was sixth at Wisconsin.

Behind these three, ‘Cuse will need good days from Joel Hubbard (28th at Wisconsin but only 35th in the ACC) and Dan Lennon (45th at 2014 NCAAs). Where the Orange was packed tightly between 37th-45th at the Big Dance last season (their top 4 had an 11-second spread), they’ll especially need Hubbard and Lennon to stay close in that range if their top three is on another level in the top 25.

No. 4 Michigan Wolverines



The Michigan Wolverines have been having the season of their lives. Give some credit to second-year head coach Kevin Sullivan, a former 4-time NCAA Champion, 16-time Big Ten Champion and 14-time All American at Michigan. But give a lot of the credit to the boys in maize and blue. They have sharpened nearly the same crew of talent from 2014, where the finished 11th, into one of the best teams in the NCAA.

Jumping from 11th to the podium isn’t crazy. Stanford went from 19th in 2013 to the runner-up spot last year. Portland also jumped a few spots from seventh to third. The rate that this season has been going for the Wolverines, fourth-place isn’t a crazy projection. The last two fourth-place teams at the NCAA Championships have been NAU (188 points in 2014) and BYU (267 in 2013). That’s a huge point difference, proving how fickle NCAA cross country can be. You have to have the talent, and you have to have five men show up on the same day. So far, the Wolverines finished third at Wisconsin (only 32 points away from runner-up BYU), first in the Big Ten and took the top spot in the Great Lakes. To be in the 188-267 range they’ll need some big performances, and Mason Ferlic is up for the challenge.

After finishing 252nd in Terre Haute his freshman year, redshirt senior Ferlic is taking “started from the bottom” to a whole new level. He has blossomed into an accomplished steeplechaser, a multiple time Big Ten Champion and 2x top 25 finisher in NCAA cross country. His credentials scream top 10 material, which is good because the Wolverines will probably need that if they want their first top four spot since 1998.

Next is junior Ben Flanagan, whose 64th-place finish from 2014 could be seen as a concern, as he was and remains the Wolverines’ number two man. Considering he finished 29th at Wisco (a huge improvement from 69th in ’14 and 126th at ’13), Flanagan has the tools to put together his first All American performance. Tony Smoragiewicz (9th at Big Tens), Connor Mora (51st at Wisco), Aaron Baumgarten (62nd at Wisco), August Pappas (63rd at Wisco) and Nick Renberg (15th at GL Regional) make this team a dangerous combination of moving parts. Though Ferlic and Flanagan have proven reliable at the top, each of these gentlemen have appeared in a different order during each race this season. The talent may not be on the same level as Colorado, but and depth are there.