2016 109th NYRR Millrose GamesFeb 19, 2016 by Lincoln Shryack
Millrose Preview: Centro v. Willis, Rowbury & Huddle v. American Records
Millrose Preview: Centro v. Willis, Rowbury & Huddle v. American Records
The 109th Millrose Games will invade the Armory tomorrow, and as is standard here, this year's edition is loaded with some of the biggest names in the sport
The 109th Millrose Games will invade the Armory tomorrow, and as is standard here, this year's edition is loaded with some of the biggest names in the sport. Superstars dot every event tomorrow night, and we kick off our preview by breaking down the nightcap, the men’s Wanamaker mile.
The two fastest men in the world in 2016 will collide in the Millrose Games’ signature event a year removed from their epic clash at the Armory that saw both run 3:51. Matt Centrowitz and Nick Willis took the Wanamaker mile down to the line in 2015, with the American just holding off the Kiwi 3:51.35 to 3:51.46, and the rematch is shaping up to be another barn-burner.
Willis just ran the 3:53.27 World lead last Sunday, a spot that Centro occupied previously with his 3:54.02 from January 30th. Coming off outdoor seasons where they both ran 1500 PRs— Willis 3:29.66, Centrowitz 3:30.40— the 3:51.21 Millrose record figures to be under heavy duress Saturday in NYC.
Willis has been hyping his showdown with the American on Twitter, and now plans are being made to chase a hallowed sub-3:50, which you probably know doesn’t happen all too often. Bernard Lagat’s 3:49.89 from 2005, the indoor American record, is the last time a human has accomplished the feat.
Centro has asked for 2:52 through 1200m from rabbit Kyle Merber, which is so wickedly fast that Willis’ agent called up his athlete to make sure he didn’t want to pull back the reigns on the tempo.
“He said, ‘hey, they’re asking for this, do you want me to try and protest it and ask for a different time?’ I said no, if he wants it lets go, it will be fun.” Oh, it’s so on.
Willis on the 3:50 pace: Bring it on:
Only three men in history have cracked 3:50 indoors period, and you may have heard of them— Hicham El Guerrouj, Eamonn Coghlan, and Lagat. Centro or Willis will have to be perfect to join that exclusive club this weekend, but if the pace truly takes off at 2:52, we could be in for a historic night in the Big Apple. I have my doubts that it will truly be that fast— Centro split 2:55 last year— but we shall see.
Centro: "Millrose is a staple," Hasn't decided between 1500 or 3k for USAs:
Centrowitz and Willis are certainly the class of this one, but of course, Millrose didn’t skimp in filling out the rest of the field. Brit Chris O’Hare has run 3:54.59 already this season, fourth in the World, and a mass of heavy-hitters will join him next to Willis and Centro, including Robby Andrews, Garrett Heath, and Cory Leslie.
PREDICTION: I went back and forth, but Centro knows how to win here, having done it twice. Wanamaker trophy #3 comes with a 3:50.99 indoor PR.
You can call it the B heat all you want, but Drew Hunter will be looking to lower his 3:58.25 high school record that he set two weeks ago, so this race is a can’t-miss just like its older brother. Hunter will match up with a good crop of pros and collegians that didn’t quite make the Wanamaker cut, with 3:56 man Ford Palmer and Will Geoghegan, who ran a 3:41 1500 at the House of Track last month, the top names in the field.
Hunter after his 3:58.25 two weeks ago:
Will Hunter keep his streak of record-breaking races alive? On the very same track with the spotlight even brighter now, my guess is yes.
PREDICTION: Geoghegan FTW, 3:57. Hunter does it again, 3:58.05.
The wheels fell off for Shannon Rowbury in the last 50m a year ago in the women’s Wanamaker mile, as her fluid stride became awkward as fatigue set in. She still won by over three seconds in 4:24.32, but the 4:20.5 American record went unchallenged as Rowbury locked up in the last lap.
Now the 31-year-old is back again in NYC with her intentions the same— take down Mary Slaney's 34-year-old record. For this attempt, Rowbury is asking for a lethal pace—2:08 through 800— that no one else in the field would dare follow. That’s three seconds faster than she took out last year, so I’m pretty sure if you look up fearless in the dictionary, a picture of Shannon Rowbury in bright pink lipstick is right there next to it.
Of course, the reigning champ has reason to believe she can topple Slaney’s indoor record, as she took down her outdoor 1500m mark just this past summer with a 3:56.29 in Monaco. Although Rowbury didn’t run nearly as fast in her tune-up race as she did last year— she ran 4:22.66 at Camel City in 2015, and 4:26.01 there three weeks ago— she said Thursday that her training has been more geared for later in the indoor season than it was a year ago.
“Knowing that World Indoors is a big goal, we made sure to keep training heavy during January, mileage was up and workouts were strong. Now, we’re just now bringing down the mileage, tapering a bit, and gearing up for the important races ahead,” Rowbury said on Thursday.
There’s no doubt that sub-4:20.5 will be a tall order. Only three women in history have done it, and before superwoman Genzebe Dibaba embarrassed the old World record with her 4:13 on Wednesday, no woman had run under 4:20.5 in 26 years. But Rowbury chopping 3-seconds off her 1500 PR last summer prevents me from eliminating the possibility.
No one is coming close to Rowbury tomorrow, but what the heck, three other women with sub-4:30 indoor mile PRs, plus Kerri Gallagher, have the best shot. Treniere Moser (2nd a year ago), Leah O’Connor (’15 NCAA champ), and Stephanie Charnigo (3rd a year ago) should be in the mix if Rowbury crumbles under the weight of Slaney chasing, as should 2015 breakout star Gallagher.
PREDICTION: No American record, but Rowbury wins easily with 4:23.2.
This one should be spectacular.
The Bowerman men will roll out a brigade of distance stars, among them A-listers Ryan Hill and Evan Jager, while Eric Jenkins and Cam Levins will be holding things down for the rival Oregon Project. Fresh off his 7:40 PR, OTC’s Hassan Mead will make it a trifecta of Oregon-based professional clubs represented in this one, and hey, why not throw in perhaps the greatest NCAA distance runner of all-time, Edward Cheserek? This race certainly could use more Oregon flavor.
Anyways, this is jam-packed with storylines, so let’s run through them briefly, with my take underneath:
Can Cheserek break Alistair Cragg’s 7:38.59 collegiate record?
This to me depends on the pacing. But yes, he’s certainly capable of breaking it— his 7:47 PR is from two years ago, back when he only had one NCAA title, if you can remember that. So far this season Cheserek has run an easy 3:57 mile and a just as easy 13:35 5k. Like I said, if the pace is hot…watch out.
Cheserek's 13:35 from Husky last weekend:
Eric Jenkins and Cheserek Reunite
Jenkins and Ches were a two-man wrecking crew last season for Oregon, going 1-2 at NCAA XC before combining to win four individual titles on the track last winter/spring. Saturday night will be the first time the best buds will race since Jenkins turned pro, meaning that it will be their first race together where they don’t work as a team, unless of course old habits set in. Oh, and I’m still picking Cheserek.
Is Hassan Mead a legit contender to make World Indoor team?
The U.S. men’s 3k is going to be incredibly difficult to make, and even after a 7:40 two weeks ago in Portland, Mead still seems like a long shot to finish top two with names like Hill, Rupp, Jager, and Heath (and possibly Centro) in his way. Millrose is a chance for him to grab some serious scalps after his big PR and near takedown of Centro, which would go a long way for his confidence heading into USAs.
Mead pushed Matt Centrowitz to the line two weeks ago as both men ran 7:40:
Oh, Canada
Mo Ahmed, Cam Levins, and Matt Hughes. At least one of them is not going to World Indoors.
Season Debuts for Bowerman Guys
26-year-old Ryan Hill is coming off the best season of his career, as he won U.S. titles indoor and outdoor and lowered his 5k PR down to 13:05. The same can be said of his teammate and fellow 26-year-old Evan Jager, who came within a clipped hurdle of becoming the 12th man in history to break 8:00 in the steeple, and also ran 3:32 for 1500. Hill was 7th in the World Championship 5k final, which was promising, while Jager was 6th in the World Championship steeple final, which was disappointing. But you knew that stuff already.
That time we hung out with Jager the day before he set his 8:00.45 steeple American record in Paris:
Eyes will be cast towards medals in Rio, and Saturday will be the start of that long journey as both men kick off their 2016 campaigns. Even in their season debuts, I would be surprised if either Jager or Hill doesn’t win.
PREDICTION: Ryan Hill takes it in 7:39 with a 26.xx last lap. Cheserek runs 7:40.
14:47.62.
That’s the number Molly Huddle will target as she chases Shalane Flanagan’s 2009 American record, a time of which the 31-year-old has only dipped under twice in her career on the outdoor track. Just one woman in American history has come within 20 seconds of the time, which is partly to blame on the race being run so infrequently indoors (by pros that is), and partly because 14:47 is really stinkin’ fast.
But of course, Huddle took down Flanagan’s outdoor 5k record in 2010 with her 14:44.76 (before lowering it 14:42.64 in 2014), so she certainly has the ability to put a charge into her indoor record as well. At the least, Huddle’s mediocre-by-her-standards indoor PR of 15:13 is guaranteed to topple.
2015 was a spectacular year for Huddle, particularly away from the track, with her 14:50 5k American record on the roads in Boston last April adding some serious fuel to the “14:47 is going down!” argument.
Huddle two days before Millrose: "I'm kind of in strength-building phase right now, but that can translate really well to the 5k:
But it’s not just 14:47 that the 17-time national champion will have to contend with. In fact, she’s not even the favorite. Ethiopia’s Geleta Burka, who won silver in the World 10k last summer and ran 14:40 in July, will be in NYC, and her presence should help Huddle in her pursuit of 14:47. The American beat the 30-year-old Ethiopian soundly when they met on the Boston streets in April, 14:50 to 14:57, but Burka is an ace on the oval. The 2008 1500 World Indoor champion will be tough to beat.
This field is just so deep. Here’s a glance at some other big names:
New Bowerman TC’er Betsy Saina has run 14:39 outdoors, although the 27-year-old Kenyan raced poorly at the end of last year, so she’s a wildcard here. Last year at Millrose, Saina finished second in the 3k in 8:43.
Second and third at USA outdoors last year, Marielle Hall and Abbey D’Agostino aren’t likely to be challengers to Burka or Huddle, but both have run quick 3k’s so far this season— Abbey D 8:51, Hall 8:54.
Also in the mix will be World 10k bronze medalist Emily Infeld, who snuck past Huddle in Beijing as the latter prematurely celebrated. The 25-year-old has never run an indoor 5k, and she’ll likely have to dip under her 15:07 PR on Saturday if she wants any shot at hanging with Burka or Huddle. She did say earlier that she thinks she’s in sub-15:00 shape so don’t count her out like we all did last year ahead of the World Championships.
PREDICTION: Burka takes it in 14:52 with Huddle just behind her in 14:53.
QUICKLY, here’s what else to watch tomorrow…
Andre De Grasse (6.60 PR) will make his pro debut against 60m ace Trell Kimmons (6.45 PR) and Chinese star Su Bingtian (6.52 PR). You can’t beat the instant gratification of the 60.
De Grasse: "[Puma] expects me to replace Usain Bolt":
PREDICTION: De Grasse is a different sprinter from the last time he ran a 60 nearly a year ago. The World bronze medalist takes it in 6.57.
Allyson Felix! Jenna Prandini! Remona Burchell! And I’m picking Tianna Bartoletta.
PREDICTION: Bartoletta 7.16.
Duane Solomon v. Brannon Kidder and I’m taking the college senior over the #2 man in U.S. history. Indoor is so weird.
PREDICTION: Kidder 1:46.8.
Seven women with sub-2:00 outdoor PRs will line up in this dandy, including current World #2 Lynsey Sharp, who just ran 2:00.30 last weekend in Boston. That was a solo effort. She’ll have plenty of company on Saturday with defending champ Ajee Wilson, 2013 World bronze medalist Brenda Martinez, reigning NCAA outdoor champ Raevyn Rogers, and 2014 Bowerman winner Laura Roesler all in NYC.
Lynsey Sharp's 2:00 from Boston last weekend:
PREDICTION: Sharp 2:01.5.
Men’s Wanamaker Mile: Centro v. Willis Rematch (5:50pm ET)
The two fastest men in the world in 2016 will collide in the Millrose Games’ signature event a year removed from their epic clash at the Armory that saw both run 3:51. Matt Centrowitz and Nick Willis took the Wanamaker mile down to the line in 2015, with the American just holding off the Kiwi 3:51.35 to 3:51.46, and the rematch is shaping up to be another barn-burner.
Willis just ran the 3:53.27 World lead last Sunday, a spot that Centro occupied previously with his 3:54.02 from January 30th. Coming off outdoor seasons where they both ran 1500 PRs— Willis 3:29.66, Centrowitz 3:30.40— the 3:51.21 Millrose record figures to be under heavy duress Saturday in NYC.
Willis has been hyping his showdown with the American on Twitter, and now plans are being made to chase a hallowed sub-3:50, which you probably know doesn’t happen all too often. Bernard Lagat’s 3:49.89 from 2005, the indoor American record, is the last time a human has accomplished the feat.
I used to love racing @craig_mottram, and now a great rivalry with @MattCentrowitz is developing. @MillroseGames Feb 20th.
— Nick Willis (@nickwillis) February 3, 2016
Centro has asked for 2:52 through 1200m from rabbit Kyle Merber, which is so wickedly fast that Willis’ agent called up his athlete to make sure he didn’t want to pull back the reigns on the tempo.
“He said, ‘hey, they’re asking for this, do you want me to try and protest it and ask for a different time?’ I said no, if he wants it lets go, it will be fun.” Oh, it’s so on.
Willis on the 3:50 pace: Bring it on:
Only three men in history have cracked 3:50 indoors period, and you may have heard of them— Hicham El Guerrouj, Eamonn Coghlan, and Lagat. Centro or Willis will have to be perfect to join that exclusive club this weekend, but if the pace truly takes off at 2:52, we could be in for a historic night in the Big Apple. I have my doubts that it will truly be that fast— Centro split 2:55 last year— but we shall see.
Centro: "Millrose is a staple," Hasn't decided between 1500 or 3k for USAs:
Centrowitz and Willis are certainly the class of this one, but of course, Millrose didn’t skimp in filling out the rest of the field. Brit Chris O’Hare has run 3:54.59 already this season, fourth in the World, and a mass of heavy-hitters will join him next to Willis and Centro, including Robby Andrews, Garrett Heath, and Cory Leslie.
PREDICTION: I went back and forth, but Centro knows how to win here, having done it twice. Wanamaker trophy #3 comes with a 3:50.99 indoor PR.
Men’s Armory Invitational Mile: Can Hunter break the high school mile record…again? (3:29pm ET)
You can call it the B heat all you want, but Drew Hunter will be looking to lower his 3:58.25 high school record that he set two weeks ago, so this race is a can’t-miss just like its older brother. Hunter will match up with a good crop of pros and collegians that didn’t quite make the Wanamaker cut, with 3:56 man Ford Palmer and Will Geoghegan, who ran a 3:41 1500 at the House of Track last month, the top names in the field.
Hunter after his 3:58.25 two weeks ago:
Will Hunter keep his streak of record-breaking races alive? On the very same track with the spotlight even brighter now, my guess is yes.
PREDICTION: Geoghegan FTW, 3:57. Hunter does it again, 3:58.05.
Women’s Wanamaker Mile: Rowbury v. American Record (5:24pm ET)
The wheels fell off for Shannon Rowbury in the last 50m a year ago in the women’s Wanamaker mile, as her fluid stride became awkward as fatigue set in. She still won by over three seconds in 4:24.32, but the 4:20.5 American record went unchallenged as Rowbury locked up in the last lap.
Now the 31-year-old is back again in NYC with her intentions the same— take down Mary Slaney's 34-year-old record. For this attempt, Rowbury is asking for a lethal pace—2:08 through 800— that no one else in the field would dare follow. That’s three seconds faster than she took out last year, so I’m pretty sure if you look up fearless in the dictionary, a picture of Shannon Rowbury in bright pink lipstick is right there next to it.
Of course, the reigning champ has reason to believe she can topple Slaney’s indoor record, as she took down her outdoor 1500m mark just this past summer with a 3:56.29 in Monaco. Although Rowbury didn’t run nearly as fast in her tune-up race as she did last year— she ran 4:22.66 at Camel City in 2015, and 4:26.01 there three weeks ago— she said Thursday that her training has been more geared for later in the indoor season than it was a year ago.
“Knowing that World Indoors is a big goal, we made sure to keep training heavy during January, mileage was up and workouts were strong. Now, we’re just now bringing down the mileage, tapering a bit, and gearing up for the important races ahead,” Rowbury said on Thursday.
There’s no doubt that sub-4:20.5 will be a tall order. Only three women in history have done it, and before superwoman Genzebe Dibaba embarrassed the old World record with her 4:13 on Wednesday, no woman had run under 4:20.5 in 26 years. But Rowbury chopping 3-seconds off her 1500 PR last summer prevents me from eliminating the possibility.
No one is coming close to Rowbury tomorrow, but what the heck, three other women with sub-4:30 indoor mile PRs, plus Kerri Gallagher, have the best shot. Treniere Moser (2nd a year ago), Leah O’Connor (’15 NCAA champ), and Stephanie Charnigo (3rd a year ago) should be in the mix if Rowbury crumbles under the weight of Slaney chasing, as should 2015 breakout star Gallagher.
PREDICTION: No American record, but Rowbury wins easily with 4:23.2.
Paavo Nurmi Men’s 3,000m: All Oregon Everything (4:56pm ET)
This one should be spectacular.
The Bowerman men will roll out a brigade of distance stars, among them A-listers Ryan Hill and Evan Jager, while Eric Jenkins and Cam Levins will be holding things down for the rival Oregon Project. Fresh off his 7:40 PR, OTC’s Hassan Mead will make it a trifecta of Oregon-based professional clubs represented in this one, and hey, why not throw in perhaps the greatest NCAA distance runner of all-time, Edward Cheserek? This race certainly could use more Oregon flavor.
Anyways, this is jam-packed with storylines, so let’s run through them briefly, with my take underneath:
Can Cheserek break Alistair Cragg’s 7:38.59 collegiate record?
This to me depends on the pacing. But yes, he’s certainly capable of breaking it— his 7:47 PR is from two years ago, back when he only had one NCAA title, if you can remember that. So far this season Cheserek has run an easy 3:57 mile and a just as easy 13:35 5k. Like I said, if the pace is hot…watch out.
Cheserek's 13:35 from Husky last weekend:
Eric Jenkins and Cheserek Reunite
Jenkins and Ches were a two-man wrecking crew last season for Oregon, going 1-2 at NCAA XC before combining to win four individual titles on the track last winter/spring. Saturday night will be the first time the best buds will race since Jenkins turned pro, meaning that it will be their first race together where they don’t work as a team, unless of course old habits set in. Oh, and I’m still picking Cheserek.
Is Hassan Mead a legit contender to make World Indoor team?
The U.S. men’s 3k is going to be incredibly difficult to make, and even after a 7:40 two weeks ago in Portland, Mead still seems like a long shot to finish top two with names like Hill, Rupp, Jager, and Heath (and possibly Centro) in his way. Millrose is a chance for him to grab some serious scalps after his big PR and near takedown of Centro, which would go a long way for his confidence heading into USAs.
Mead pushed Matt Centrowitz to the line two weeks ago as both men ran 7:40:
Oh, Canada
Mo Ahmed, Cam Levins, and Matt Hughes. At least one of them is not going to World Indoors.
Season Debuts for Bowerman Guys
26-year-old Ryan Hill is coming off the best season of his career, as he won U.S. titles indoor and outdoor and lowered his 5k PR down to 13:05. The same can be said of his teammate and fellow 26-year-old Evan Jager, who came within a clipped hurdle of becoming the 12th man in history to break 8:00 in the steeple, and also ran 3:32 for 1500. Hill was 7th in the World Championship 5k final, which was promising, while Jager was 6th in the World Championship steeple final, which was disappointing. But you knew that stuff already.
That time we hung out with Jager the day before he set his 8:00.45 steeple American record in Paris:
Eyes will be cast towards medals in Rio, and Saturday will be the start of that long journey as both men kick off their 2016 campaigns. Even in their season debuts, I would be surprised if either Jager or Hill doesn’t win.
PREDICTION: Ryan Hill takes it in 7:39 with a 26.xx last lap. Cheserek runs 7:40.
Women’s 5,000: Molly Huddle v. American record (and Geleta Burka) (4:28pm ET)
14:47.62.
That’s the number Molly Huddle will target as she chases Shalane Flanagan’s 2009 American record, a time of which the 31-year-old has only dipped under twice in her career on the outdoor track. Just one woman in American history has come within 20 seconds of the time, which is partly to blame on the race being run so infrequently indoors (by pros that is), and partly because 14:47 is really stinkin’ fast.
But of course, Huddle took down Flanagan’s outdoor 5k record in 2010 with her 14:44.76 (before lowering it 14:42.64 in 2014), so she certainly has the ability to put a charge into her indoor record as well. At the least, Huddle’s mediocre-by-her-standards indoor PR of 15:13 is guaranteed to topple.
2015 was a spectacular year for Huddle, particularly away from the track, with her 14:50 5k American record on the roads in Boston last April adding some serious fuel to the “14:47 is going down!” argument.
Huddle two days before Millrose: "I'm kind of in strength-building phase right now, but that can translate really well to the 5k:
But it’s not just 14:47 that the 17-time national champion will have to contend with. In fact, she’s not even the favorite. Ethiopia’s Geleta Burka, who won silver in the World 10k last summer and ran 14:40 in July, will be in NYC, and her presence should help Huddle in her pursuit of 14:47. The American beat the 30-year-old Ethiopian soundly when they met on the Boston streets in April, 14:50 to 14:57, but Burka is an ace on the oval. The 2008 1500 World Indoor champion will be tough to beat.
This field is just so deep. Here’s a glance at some other big names:
New Bowerman TC’er Betsy Saina has run 14:39 outdoors, although the 27-year-old Kenyan raced poorly at the end of last year, so she’s a wildcard here. Last year at Millrose, Saina finished second in the 3k in 8:43.
Second and third at USA outdoors last year, Marielle Hall and Abbey D’Agostino aren’t likely to be challengers to Burka or Huddle, but both have run quick 3k’s so far this season— Abbey D 8:51, Hall 8:54.
Also in the mix will be World 10k bronze medalist Emily Infeld, who snuck past Huddle in Beijing as the latter prematurely celebrated. The 25-year-old has never run an indoor 5k, and she’ll likely have to dip under her 15:07 PR on Saturday if she wants any shot at hanging with Burka or Huddle. She did say earlier that she thinks she’s in sub-15:00 shape so don’t count her out like we all did last year ahead of the World Championships.
PREDICTION: Burka takes it in 14:52 with Huddle just behind her in 14:53.
QUICKLY, here’s what else to watch tomorrow…
Men’s 60 (4:16pm ET)
Andre De Grasse (6.60 PR) will make his pro debut against 60m ace Trell Kimmons (6.45 PR) and Chinese star Su Bingtian (6.52 PR). You can’t beat the instant gratification of the 60.
De Grasse: "[Puma] expects me to replace Usain Bolt":
PREDICTION: De Grasse is a different sprinter from the last time he ran a 60 nearly a year ago. The World bronze medalist takes it in 6.57.
Women’s 60 (4:11pm ET)
Allyson Felix! Jenna Prandini! Remona Burchell! And I’m picking Tianna Bartoletta.
PREDICTION: Bartoletta 7.16.
Men’s 800 (3:07pm ET)
Duane Solomon v. Brannon Kidder and I’m taking the college senior over the #2 man in U.S. history. Indoor is so weird.
PREDICTION: Kidder 1:46.8.
Women’s 800 (5:34 pm ET)
Seven women with sub-2:00 outdoor PRs will line up in this dandy, including current World #2 Lynsey Sharp, who just ran 2:00.30 last weekend in Boston. That was a solo effort. She’ll have plenty of company on Saturday with defending champ Ajee Wilson, 2013 World bronze medalist Brenda Martinez, reigning NCAA outdoor champ Raevyn Rogers, and 2014 Bowerman winner Laura Roesler all in NYC.
Lynsey Sharp's 2:00 from Boston last weekend:
PREDICTION: Sharp 2:01.5.