Gazing upon the 2016 Boston Marathon entries list, one cannot help but wonder if this is the race that will determine the Ethiopian Olympic marathon squad.

The country selected athletes for the London Games according to their marathon times in 2012. That year, Ayele Abshero won Dubai with a time of 2:04:23—the second-fastest ever by an Ethiopian—and beat out other proven competitors, including 2008 bronze medalist Tsegaye Kebede, for a spot in London.

Don’t get me wrong: Abshero deserved a spot on the team based on the criteria. But he DNF’d in London and has not broken 2:06 since.

(Side note: None of the Ethiopians finished the 2012 Olympic race.)

Boston falls just a few weeks before the London Marathon, another race in the World Marathon Major series. The U.S. holds an Olympic Trials marathon race, but these distance-powerhouse countries do not. Boston and London are where they are seemingly to shoot for an Olympic berth.

The 2012 Boston Marathon race was HOT; we're talking record-high temperatures. The winning time was 2:12. The slow times didn't help any of the Kenyans' Olympic chances, since all men and women on the squad raced again in London that spring.

For the Ethiopian men, this Boston race could very well determine the upcoming Olympic team. Check out how fast the Boston entries are compared to those Ethiopians racing London.

Ethiopians in 2016 Boston Marathon

Tsegaye Mekonnen 2:04:32 (fourth-fastest Ethiopian all-time)
Hayle Lemi Berhanu 2:04:33 (fifth-fastest)
Lelisa Desisa 2:04:45 (seventh-fastest)
Yemane Adhane Tsegay 2:04:48 (eighth-fastest)
Getu Feleke 2:04:50 (11th-fastest)
Deribe Robi, 2:05:58

Ethiopians in 2016 London Marathon

Kenenisa Bekele 2:05:04
Tilahun Regassa 2:05:27
Abera Kuma 2:05:56
Note: Endeshaw Negesse holds a PB of 2:04:52, but tested positive for meldonium in March.

For the women, both Boston and London feature three of the top six Ethiopians of all time. In Boston, reigning Olympic champion Tiki Gelana has not run close to her PB since claiming Ethiopia’s first marathon gold. She will be a wild card on Monday morning.

Tirfi Tsegaye is coming off a 2:19 PB in January, while Buzunesh Deba’s best is remarkably from her 2014 runner-up performance in Boston. Jeptoo failed a test for the performance-enhancing drug EPO last November. 

Based on her credentials and fresh legs, Deba looks to be the favorite, ahead of Gelana and Tsegaye.

Ethiopians in 2016 Boston Marathon

Tiki Gelana 2:18:58 (fastest Ethiopian all-time)
Tirfi Tsegaye 2:19:41 (third-fastest)
Buzunesh Deba 2:19:59 (fifth-fastest)
Mamitu Daska 2:21:59 
Atsede Bayisa 2:22:03
Tadelech Bekele 2:22:51
Fatuma Sado 2:24:16

Ethiopians in 2016 London Marathon

Aselefech Mergia 2:19:31 (second-fastest)
Mare Dibaba 2:19:44 (fourth-fastest)
Feyse Tadese 2:20:27 (sixth-fastest) 
Tigist Tufa 2:21:52

There are two sub-2:20 women competing in London, which will make this Boston race even more dramatic.

Should the Ethiopian committee select based on time, we could see the pack really go for it on Monday morning. At the same time, no Ethiopian has broken 2:20 in London; Tirunesh Dibaba’s 2:20:35 is the fastest. 

Mare Dibaba, last year's runner-up in Boston and 2015 world champion, is on a roll and will no doubt be shooting for her second Olympic team. 

Who’s excited for Monday? :)