When FloTrack's final Kolas Projections came out, it was very interesting to see the Oregon Ducks as the ninth at-large team to get into the meet despite being the Pre-Nationals champions and projected to finish third in the West region. We decided to dig a little deeper to see why the Kolas calculator isn't kind to Oregon and to our surprise discovered there is a small chance the Oregon Ducks could be the first team out of the NCAA Championships if certain upsets occur.

HOW MANY POINTS DOES OREGON HAVE?

Based on their three meets UW Invite, Pre-Nats, and Pac-12s, the Ducks have 12 potential Kolas points from teams with a legit chance to make the NCAA meet.

Arkansas (Pre-Nats)
California (Pre-Nats)
California (Pac-12s)
Colorado (Pre-Nats)
Colorado St. (UW Invite)
Indiana (Pre-Nats)
Michigan (Pre-Nats)
UTEP (Pre-Nats)
Washington (UW Invite)
Washington (Pac-12s)
Washington St. (UW Invite)
Washington St. (Pac-12s)

Of these 12 points, only six will count towards Oregon's total, because we imagine Oregon will beat California, Washington, and Washington State at the West Regional. Thus, Oregon will have to be chosen before any of these three West teams are entered into the meet.

Arkansas (Pre-Nats)
California (Pre-Nats)
California (Pac-12s)
Colorado (Pre-Nats)
Colorado St. (UW Invite)
Indiana (Pre-Nats)
Michigan (Pre-Nats)
UTEP (Pre-Nats)
Washington (UW Invite)
Washington (Pac-12s)
Washington St. (UW Invite)
Washington St. (Pac-12s)

We imagine Indiana will not finish top two in the Great Lakes region, and based on the Hoosiers' projected points they will only make the NCAA meet via a push from either Michigan or Eastern Michigan. Therefore, Oregon's win over Indiana won't count, because you cannot earn a win over a team that is pushed in the NCAA field.

Arkansas (Pre-Nats)
California (Pre-Nats)
California (Pac-12s)
Colorado (Pre-Nats)
Colorado St. (UW Invite)
Indiana (Pre-Nats)
Michigan (Pre-Nats)
UTEP (Pre-Nats)
Washington (UW Invite)
Washington (Pac-12s)
Washington St. (UW Invite)
Washington St. (Pac-12s)

Of the remaining teams, it is very difficult to imagine a scenario where one of these teams doesn't finish high enough in its regional to not make the meet on its own. Therefore, the final tally of Kolas points for Oregon is five.

WERE WOULD OREGON NEED TO FINISH IN THE WEST?

This crazy scenario will only come to fruition if the Ducks finish fifth in the West regional. How likely is a fifth-place finish for Oregon? Based off of the Ducks' Pac-12 performance… it could happen.

The Four West Teams That Could Beat Oregon:

No. 3 Stanford (Very Likely)
Stanford destroyed Oregon at Pac-12s, so it is not out of the question that Stanford could beat Oregon again.

No. 8 UCLA (Possible)
UCLA upset Oregon at Pac-12s, so it is also possible UCLA could have a repeat performance two weeks later.

No. 15 Portland (Maybe)
Portland's A team has never raced Oregon's A team this season, but remember back in September Portland's B team (featuring none of its top seven) lost by just one point to Oregon's A- team (no Edward Cheserek/Matthew Maton).

No. 20 Boise State (If The Stars Align)
This would be a major upset for the Broncos. However, Boise State seems to be getting hot at the right time coming off its MWC win over Colorado State. The Broncos have a strong one-two punch in Yusuke Uchikoshi and Michael Vennard and redshirt freshman Miler Haller was top 40 at Wisconsin.

CALIFORNIA NEEDS TO FINISH SIXTH IN THE WEST.

In addition to Oregon falling to fifth in the West, the Cal Bears would need to finish right behind the Ducks to block Washington and Washington State from pushing in Oregon. This scenario is not out of the question as Cal finished between Washington State and Washington at Pac-12s.

TWO OTHER UPSETS.

The final equation for Kolas chaos would require an upset in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Right now, we project Providence and Tulsa to finish third in their regions. If for some reason both of these teams finish fourth, they will be forced to push in the third-place teams, which ultimately adds two teams to the at-large pool and would knock Oregon out of the 13 at-large selections.

SUMMARY OF EVENTS THAT NEED TO HAPPEN.

#	Scenarios:	Our Odds
1	Stanford finishes top 4 in West	99%
2	Indiana finishes outside top 2 in Great Lakes	80%
3	UCLA finishes top 4 in West	80%
4	Portland finishes top 4 in West	75%
5	Providence finishes 4th in Northeast	50%
6	California finishes 6th in West	40%
7	Tulsa finishes 4th in Midwest	30%
8	Oregon finishes 5th in West	10%
9	Boise State finishes top 4 in West	10%

WHILE WE ARE AT IT...
HERE'S A SCENARIO WHERE COLORADO MEN DON'T QUALIFY.

#	Scenarios:	Our Odds
1	Oregon finishes 3rd in West	80%
2	Indiana finishes outside top 2 in Great Lakes	80%
3	Providence finishes 4th in Northeast	50%
4	Tulsa finishes 4th in Midwest	30%
5	CSU/BYU/NAU finish top 3 in Mountain	10%
6	Colorado finishes 4th in Mountain	10%
7	Boise State/Portland finish top 2 in West	10%
8	Air Force finishes 5th in Mountain	10%