The Enormously Overwhelming Titanic Favorite Who Is Probably Going To Win By A Lot

Mary Keitany is the two-time defending champion and the second fastest woman in the history of the world. She's also in some of the best shape of her life, as she spent her summer in the United States shredding course records from Maine to Iowa.

Since returning in 2014 after having a child, Keitany won New York, took second in London, won New York, and fell in London last April. No other woman in the field can come close to a record like that--for good reason, as all the other women in the world on Keitany's level right now were selected for the Rio Olympics. Only the course and the miles can beat the 34-year-old Kenyan on Sunday. If she's at her best, she will win. But marathoning is brutal, and as London showed, freak things can and do knock out anyone in a race this long.

If Keitany wins her third straight, she'll be the first woman to threepeat since Greta Waitz won five straight 30 years ago.

The Molly

Molly Huddle herself says that she can't win. And beating Keitany is obviously a tall order. But when was the last time Huddle had a race that was even as bad as B+? Maybe when she ran a 14:55 5K in Rome two years ago? Huddle almost always runs really well when she lines up, and the drama on Sunday will be if that machinelike consistency will carry over to the marathon. Wind in the forecast could mean slow times. But if that changes, then Kara Goucher's 2:25:53 American debut record--set in NYC in 2008--is in jeopardy. In absolute terms, no American woman has ever been as good as Huddle is right now when they ran their first marathon.

Huddle has the American 10K record and is the second fastest American 5K runner and half-marathoner ever. (Deena Kastor's American half record came well into her marathoning career.) So no American woman has made a marathon debut with a 5K PR as good as Huddle's, no American woman has made a marathon debut with a 10K PR as good as Huddle's, and no American woman has made a marathon debut with a half-marathon PR as good as Huddle's.

Huddle, 32, said today that she missed a tiny bit of training here and there in her abbreviated post-Rio buildup with some knee tendinitis. But she's fit.



So if Keitany is going to win and times might be out the window with the wind, what would constitute a successful marathon debut for Huddle? Certainly, anything less than winning the $25,000 that goes to the top American would be a surprise. What about more than that? I'd be impressed if Huddle beat any one of...

The Challengers

These three women can't beat Keitany at her best. But if the marathon beats Keitany, they can grab a win and the $100K. (Even if Keitany wins, $60,000 for second, $40,000 for third, or $25,000 for fourth is a nice payday.) Ethiopian Aselefech Mergia and Kenyans Joyce Chepkirui and Sally Kipyego are very, very good.

The 31-year-old Mergia is the eighth fastest marathoner of all time and beat Keitany in London in April. Chepkirui was third in Boston, directly behind Olympic fourth-placer Tirfe Tsegaye. (Chepkirui also lost a wild finish to Huddle in the NYC Half in March.)  And Kipyego's re-debut in the marathon is quietly one of the most interesting storylines of the race. She debuted in New York last November, but dropped out; Kipyego has the unfortunate distinction of having started a marathon but never finished one. The 2012 10K Olympic silver medalist has raced very lightly the last two years. The 30-year-old was fifth (right behind Huddle) in the 10K at worlds last summer, and has run 69:53 for the half marathon and 14:43 for 5K this year. Those three races represent a quarter of the races Kipyego has finished in the last two years. But her track pedigree is so great that she has to be included; in addition to that 10K Olympic silver medal, her 14:30 5K PR makes her one of the fastest women ever.

The Gwen

This will be incredibly entertaining. Olympic triathlon gold medalist Gwen Jorgensen doesn't run that much and doesn't run that fast when she does. But her shocking 10 miler last month and enormous base of triathlon fitness means that at a bare minimum Jorgensen will hang in for an hour or so, and after that, it's anyone's guess what will happen. I have no basis for this take whatsoever, but: when I spent the weekend with Jorgensen's training group in September, I got the sense that even though they have no idea how this race will go, marathoning is a serious thing to Jorgensen. It's something she actually wants to do. And someone who thinks like that wouldn't dive into a race like this without trying to stick with the best for as long as she can.

If you want a more substantive take, the ​Wall Street Journal​ has a very good story about why a two-and-a-half-hour triathlon is much easier on the body than a two-and-a-half hour marathon. Which would not bode great for Gwen. But this will be fun to watch no matter what.

The Americans

Kim Conley's potential is fascinating; she's been one of the best American track distance runners of this last Olympic cycle, but her debut has been (rightly) overshadowed by Huddle's. It wouldn't be a surprise if Huddle and Conley were the first two Americans across the line on Sunday. (That would win them $25K and $15K.) 

If an experienced American marathoner beats Conley, the four most likely two are Annie Bersagel, Neely Gracey, Janet Bawcom, and Sara Hall. Only five U.S. women have run faster than Bersagel since 2013, and none of them are here. But Bersagel is on a major comeback from knee surgery.

Gracey is the question mark; unlike most of the best American marathoners, she skipped the Olympic Trials and was the top American in Boston. It'll be interesting to see where she fits in the hierarchy of U.S. marathon women.

Bawcom has been fifth at the last two Olympic Trials and is running her first major in that time period. 

Hall ran 2:30 in London for a new PR. These five all have a legit shot at being the second American behind Huddle. The race is at 9:20 AM on Sunday.