2016 Kolas NCAA Selection Show

FloTrack's Projected Scenarios For Each Men's Regional

FloTrack's Projected Scenarios For Each Men's Regional

FloTrack projects the NCAA qualifying scenarios for each men's cross country regional on Friday.

Nov 9, 2016 by Gordon Mack
FloTrack's Projected Scenarios For Each Men's Regional
Friday we find out which 31 teams will be heading to Terre Haute, Indiana, to race for the NCAA title. In order to qualify for the big dance, teams will race at nine different regional races, hoping to qualify via auto-bid (top-two finish) or an at-large bid (13 teams chosen via the Kolas Calculator). Below is an overview of the likely scenarios for each region. Be sure to tune in LIVE for our Kolas NCAA Selection Show.

GREAT LAKES

No. 22 Indiana doesn't have enough points to qualify on its own. The Hoosiers will only qualify via an auto-bid (top-two finish) or by a push from either Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, or Eastern Michigan. Indiana will need to be in the top four to be safe.

Projected Number of Qualifiers: 4-5 Teams

MID-ATLANTIC

Only No. 19 Georgetown has enough points to survive a finish outside of the top two. Everyone else in this region will need to qualify via a top two finish or a third-place finish over Georgetown.

Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2 Teams (3 If Big Upset)

MIDWEST

No. 11 Oklahoma State, No. 16 Iowa State, and No. 24 Tulsa all seem to be locks to qualify. The only way this region gets a fourth team is if an outside team upsets one of these three teams.

Projected Number of Qualifiers: 3 Teams (4 If Big Upset)

MOUNTAIN

Top-ranked Northern Arizona, No. 2 Colorado, No. 5 BYU, No. 14 UTEP, No. 21 Colorado State, and No. 23 Southern Utah all have the points to get in. However, if absolute chaos occurs and a perfect storm happens, only half of these teams qualify. But this is very unlikely to happen.

Projected Number of Qualifiers: 5-6 Teams (3 If Chaos Happens)

NORTHEAST

Sixth-ranked Syracuse and No. 7 Iona seem to be locks for the auto spots with Providence having enough points to get in with a third-place finish. The only way a fourth team gets in is if one of the top three teams gets upset and finishes fourth.

Projected Number of Qualifiers: 3 Teams (4 If Big Upset)

SOUTH CENTRAL

Fourth-ranked Arkansas is the obvious lock, and no one else can get in via an at-large, so this region is likely to only produce two qualifiers.

Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2 Teams

SOUTHEAST

No. 12 Virginia, Eastern Kentucky, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech have the points; however, only Virginia is a lock to qualify. The other three have good chances to get in but also could be on the outside looking in if other regions have upset finishes.

Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2-3 Teams (4 If Big Upset)

SOUTH

Only No. 10 Ole Miss has the points to get in via at-large, but this region is similar to the South Central where the projected number of qualifiers is two.

Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2 Teams

WEST

Ninth-ranked Oregon not finishing in the top two would hurt this region. The Ducks don't have a high points total, so a non-auto finish will make this region wait longer in the selection process before Oregon eventually gets picked, which can push out the fifth- to seventh-ranked teams in this region. And, if absolute chaos occurs, this region could kick out the Ducks.

Projected Number of Qualifiers: 5-6 Teams (4 If Big Upset)