2016 Kolas NCAA Selection ShowNov 9, 2016 by Gordon Mack
FloTrack's Projected Scenarios For Each Men's Regional
FloTrack's Projected Scenarios For Each Men's Regional
FloTrack projects the NCAA qualifying scenarios for each men's cross country regional on Friday.
Friday we find out which 31 teams will be heading to Terre Haute, Indiana, to race for the NCAA title. In order to qualify for the big dance, teams will race at nine different regional races, hoping to qualify via auto-bid (top-two finish) or an at-large bid (13 teams chosen via the Kolas Calculator). Below is an overview of the likely scenarios for each region. Be sure to tune in LIVE for our Kolas NCAA Selection Show.
No. 22 Indiana doesn't have enough points to qualify on its own. The Hoosiers will only qualify via an auto-bid (top-two finish) or by a push from either Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, or Eastern Michigan. Indiana will need to be in the top four to be safe.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 4-5 Teams
Only No. 19 Georgetown has enough points to survive a finish outside of the top two. Everyone else in this region will need to qualify via a top two finish or a third-place finish over Georgetown.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2 Teams (3 If Big Upset)
No. 11 Oklahoma State, No. 16 Iowa State, and No. 24 Tulsa all seem to be locks to qualify. The only way this region gets a fourth team is if an outside team upsets one of these three teams.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 3 Teams (4 If Big Upset)
Top-ranked Northern Arizona, No. 2 Colorado, No. 5 BYU, No. 14 UTEP, No. 21 Colorado State, and No. 23 Southern Utah all have the points to get in. However, if absolute chaos occurs and a perfect storm happens, only half of these teams qualify. But this is very unlikely to happen.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 5-6 Teams (3 If Chaos Happens)
Sixth-ranked Syracuse and No. 7 Iona seem to be locks for the auto spots with Providence having enough points to get in with a third-place finish. The only way a fourth team gets in is if one of the top three teams gets upset and finishes fourth.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 3 Teams (4 If Big Upset)
Fourth-ranked Arkansas is the obvious lock, and no one else can get in via an at-large, so this region is likely to only produce two qualifiers.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2 Teams
No. 12 Virginia, Eastern Kentucky, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech have the points; however, only Virginia is a lock to qualify. The other three have good chances to get in but also could be on the outside looking in if other regions have upset finishes.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2-3 Teams (4 If Big Upset)
Only No. 10 Ole Miss has the points to get in via at-large, but this region is similar to the South Central where the projected number of qualifiers is two.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2 Teams
Ninth-ranked Oregon not finishing in the top two would hurt this region. The Ducks don't have a high points total, so a non-auto finish will make this region wait longer in the selection process before Oregon eventually gets picked, which can push out the fifth- to seventh-ranked teams in this region. And, if absolute chaos occurs, this region could kick out the Ducks.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 5-6 Teams (4 If Big Upset)
GREAT LAKES
No. 22 Indiana doesn't have enough points to qualify on its own. The Hoosiers will only qualify via an auto-bid (top-two finish) or by a push from either Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, or Eastern Michigan. Indiana will need to be in the top four to be safe.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 4-5 Teams
MID-ATLANTIC
Only No. 19 Georgetown has enough points to survive a finish outside of the top two. Everyone else in this region will need to qualify via a top two finish or a third-place finish over Georgetown.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2 Teams (3 If Big Upset)
MIDWEST
No. 11 Oklahoma State, No. 16 Iowa State, and No. 24 Tulsa all seem to be locks to qualify. The only way this region gets a fourth team is if an outside team upsets one of these three teams.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 3 Teams (4 If Big Upset)
MOUNTAIN
Top-ranked Northern Arizona, No. 2 Colorado, No. 5 BYU, No. 14 UTEP, No. 21 Colorado State, and No. 23 Southern Utah all have the points to get in. However, if absolute chaos occurs and a perfect storm happens, only half of these teams qualify. But this is very unlikely to happen.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 5-6 Teams (3 If Chaos Happens)
NORTHEAST
Sixth-ranked Syracuse and No. 7 Iona seem to be locks for the auto spots with Providence having enough points to get in with a third-place finish. The only way a fourth team gets in is if one of the top three teams gets upset and finishes fourth.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 3 Teams (4 If Big Upset)
SOUTH CENTRAL
Fourth-ranked Arkansas is the obvious lock, and no one else can get in via an at-large, so this region is likely to only produce two qualifiers.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2 Teams
SOUTHEAST
No. 12 Virginia, Eastern Kentucky, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech have the points; however, only Virginia is a lock to qualify. The other three have good chances to get in but also could be on the outside looking in if other regions have upset finishes.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2-3 Teams (4 If Big Upset)
SOUTH
Only No. 10 Ole Miss has the points to get in via at-large, but this region is similar to the South Central where the projected number of qualifiers is two.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 2 Teams
WEST
Ninth-ranked Oregon not finishing in the top two would hurt this region. The Ducks don't have a high points total, so a non-auto finish will make this region wait longer in the selection process before Oregon eventually gets picked, which can push out the fifth- to seventh-ranked teams in this region. And, if absolute chaos occurs, this region could kick out the Ducks.
Projected Number of Qualifiers: 5-6 Teams (4 If Big Upset)