Why The No. 4 Runner Is The Key To An NCAA Team Title
Why The No. 4 Runner Is The Key To An NCAA Team Title
What is the key to an NCAA cross country team title?
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a) Having 1 or 2 low sticks
b) Having the best No. 5 runner
c) Having the best pack/low spread
d) Having the best depth
Answer: None of the above.
The No. 4 runner over the past 18 years has been the most important runner for the eventual NCAA team champion. Below are two tables of the past 18 NCAA men's/women's team champions, noting the place finish for each runner's position. For example, the 2015 Syracuse men had the third-best No. 1 runner, the second-best No. 2 runner, the top No. 3 runner, the second-best No. 4 runner, and the second-best No. 5 runner.
The runner who has had the best average finish over the past 18 years was the No. 4 runner. This average proves that most team champions don't need to have the best No. 1 runner or the best No. 5 runner to win. The runner who consistently needed to perform better than all the other teams was the No. 4 runner.
So who has the best No. 4 runner heading into this year's championships? Here are our projected No. 4 runners for title-contending teams.
*Two Mile Time
Looking at these athletes, it is hard to distinguish a clear front-runner. Arkansas' Jack Bruce and Colorado's Makena Morley have the best finish from this past year. Colorado's Joe Klecker and N.C. State's Ryen Frazier have the top track PBs. NAU's Cory Glines and Washington's Kaitlyn Neal have the best Wisconsin Invitational finish.
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What is the key to an NCAA team title?
a) Having 1 or 2 low sticks
b) Having the best No. 5 runner
c) Having the best pack/low spread
d) Having the best depth
Answer: None of the above.
The No. 4 runner over the past 18 years has been the most important runner for the eventual NCAA team champion. Below are two tables of the past 18 NCAA men's/women's team champions, noting the place finish for each runner's position. For example, the 2015 Syracuse men had the third-best No. 1 runner, the second-best No. 2 runner, the top No. 3 runner, the second-best No. 4 runner, and the second-best No. 5 runner.
| Year | Team | No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2014 | Colorado | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Colorado | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2012 | Oklahoma St. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2011 | Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2010 | Oklahoma St. | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2009 | Oklahoma St. | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2008 | Oregon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | Oregon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | Colorado | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | Wisconsin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2004 | Colorado | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2003 | Stanford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | Stanford | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2001 | Colorado | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2000 | Arkansas | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1999 | Arkansas | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1998 | Arkansas | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Average | 3.61 | 1.61 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Year | Team | No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 |
| 2015 | New Mexico | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2014 | Michigan St. | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Providence | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2012 | Oregon | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2011 | Georgetown | 3 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2010 | Villanova | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2009 | Villanova | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Washington | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | Stanford | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2006 | Stanford | 3 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 2005 | Stanford | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2004 | Colorado | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2003 | Stanford | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2002 | BYU | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2001 | BYU | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2000 | Colorado | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1999 | BYU | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1998 | Villanova | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Average | 4.17 | 3.17 | 1.72 | 1.28 | 1.33 |
The runner who has had the best average finish over the past 18 years was the No. 4 runner. This average proves that most team champions don't need to have the best No. 1 runner or the best No. 5 runner to win. The runner who consistently needed to perform better than all the other teams was the No. 4 runner.
So who has the best No. 4 runner heading into this year's championships? Here are our projected No. 4 runners for title-contending teams.
| School | Projected No. 4 | Conferences | Pre-Nats/Wisco | '15 NCAA | 5K PB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAU | Cory Glines | 4th Big Sky | 20th Wisco | DNQ | 13:58 |
| Colorado | Joe Klecker | 19th Pac-12 | 24th Pre-Nats | Redshirt | 13:44 |
| Stanford | Garrett Sweatt | 14th Pac-12 | 32nd Wisco | 64th | 13:54 |
| Arkansas | Jack Bruce | 4th SEC | 12th Pre-Nats | 23rd | 13:54 |
| BYU | Brayden McLelland | 5th WCC | 40th Wisco | Mission | N/A |
| Syracuse | Philo Germano | 9th ACC | 28th Wisco | 39th | 14:00 |
| School | Projected No. 4 | Conferences | Pre-Nats/Wisco | '15 NCAA | 3K PB |
| Colorado | Makena Morley | 9th Pac-12 | 26th Pre-Nats | 97th | 10:15* |
| N.C. State | Ryen Frazier | 14th ACC | 96th Wisco | 108th | 10:02* |
| Providence | Abbey Wheeler | 8th Big East | 52nd Wisco | H.S. | 9:33 |
| Michigan | Jamie Morrissey | 25th Big Ten | 51st Pre-Nats | 180th | N/A |
| Stanford | Christina Aragon | 14th Pac-12 | 41st Pre-Nats | H.S. | N/A |
| Washington | Kaitlyn Neal | 21st Pac-12 | 34th Wisco | H.S. | 9:29 |
Looking at these athletes, it is hard to distinguish a clear front-runner. Arkansas' Jack Bruce and Colorado's Makena Morley have the best finish from this past year. Colorado's Joe Klecker and N.C. State's Ryen Frazier have the top track PBs. NAU's Cory Glines and Washington's Kaitlyn Neal have the best Wisconsin Invitational finish.
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