Kolas Projections Were Wrong Due To Crazy Tiebreaker
Kolas Projections Were Wrong Due To Crazy Tiebreaker
Kolas Projections Were Wrong Due To Crazy Tiebreaker
Today the NCAA announced the 62-team field for the 2017 Division I NCAA Cross Country Championships, which you can watch LIVE on FloTrack
However, the NCAA's official field was different from our Kolas projections. The discrepancy came down to the final two women's teams. Our projections had Missouri and Virginia Tech; the NCAA selected Indiana and Eastern Michigan.
So what happened?
It turns out our projections miscalculated an elaborate tiebreaker between Missouri and Indiana.
Both Missouri and Indiana had two wins over qualified teams: Missouri beat Oklahoma State and Texas, while Indiana beat Columbia and Dartmouth.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, which doesn't come into play since Indiana and Missouri never raced each other this season. The second tiebreaker is common opponents, which our projections thought was equal (turns out they weren't). And the third tiebreaker is highest finish at regionals, which gives an advantage to Missouri since they were fourth in the Midwest and Indiana was fifth.
This was why we selected Missouri incorrectly.
Here is why our "common opponents" tiebreaker was wrong and the NCAA's was right: It turns out Indiana and Missouri had 25 common opponents!
Here's how they fared against those opponents:
TEAM | W/L | COMMON OPPONENT | MEET |
INDIANA | W | Boston College | BATTLE IN BEANTOWN |
INDIANA | W | Bowling Green | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | W | Bradley | SAM BELL |
INDIANA | W | Brown | BATTLE IN BEANTOWN |
INDIANA | W | Butler | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | W | Central Michigan | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | W | Dayton | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | W | Illinois | BATTLE IN BEANTOWN |
INDIANA | W | Illinois | BIG TEN |
INDIANA | W | Iowa | BIG TEN |
INDIANA | W | IUPUI | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | W | Kentucky | NUTTYCOMBE |
INDIANA | W | Miami (Ohio) | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | W | Miami (Ohio) | SAM BELL |
INDIANA | W | Nebraska | BIG TEN |
INDIANA | W | Nebraska | SAM BELL |
INDIANA | W | Northwestern | BIG TEN |
INDIANA | W | Ohio State | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | W | Toledo | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | W | Tulsa | NUTTYCOMBE |
INDIANA | W | UMass Lowell | BATTLE IN BEANTOWN |
INDIANA | W | Vanderbilt | NUTTYCOMBE |
INDIANA | W | Xavier (Ohio) | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | L | Eastern Michigan | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | L | Eastern Michigan | NUTTYCOMBE |
INDIANA | L | Iowa State | NUTTYCOMBE |
INDIANA | L | Michigan | BIG TEN |
INDIANA | L | Michigan | GREAT LAKES |
INDIANA | L | Michigan | SAM BELL |
INDIANA | L | Minnesota | BIG TEN |
INDIANA | L | Minnesota | NUTTYCOMBE |
INDIANA | L | Ohio State | BIG TEN |
INDIANA | L | Penn State | BIG TEN |
MISSOURI | W | Boston College | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | W | Bowling Green | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | W | Bradley | MIDWEST |
MISSOURI | W | Brown | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | W | Butler | COMMODORE |
MISSOURI | W | Central Michigan | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | W | Eastern Michigan | COMMODORE |
MISSOURI | W | Illinois | MIDWEST |
MISSOURI | W | Iowa | MIDWEST |
MISSOURI | W | IUPUI | COMMODORE |
MISSOURI | W | Kentucky | SEC |
MISSOURI | W | Miami (Ohio) | COMMODORE |
MISSOURI | W | Miami (Ohio) | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | W | Nebraska | MIDWEST |
MISSOURI | W | Northwestern | COWBOY JAMBOREE |
MISSOURI | W | Northwestern | MIDWEST |
MISSOURI | W | Tulsa | COWBOY JAMBOREE |
MISSOURI | W | Tulsa | MIDWEST |
MISSOURI | W | UMass Lowell | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | W | Vanderbilt | SEC |
MISSOURI | W | Xavier (Ohio) | COMMODORE |
MISSOURI | L | Dayton | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | L | Iowa State | MIDWEST |
MISSOURI | L | Michigan | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | L | Minnesota | MIDWEST |
MISSOURI | L | Northwestern | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | L | Ohio State | COMMODORE |
MISSOURI | L | Ohio State | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | L | Penn State | COWBOY JAMBOREE |
MISSOURI | L | Toledo | PRE-NATS |
MISSOURI | L | Vanderbilt | COMMODORE |
Indiana's record was 23-10 (.697). Missouri's record was 21-10 (.677).
As a result, Indiana won the tiebreaker for common opponents, and should have been selected over Missouri -- which then resulted in Eastern Michigan being selected for the final at-large spot.
For the full NCAA selection criteria click here