Five Storylines To Follow At Nike Cross Nationals
Five Storylines To Follow At Nike Cross Nationals
Will all the big favorites come through at the 2017 Nike Cross Nationals, or will we see an upset in Portland?
With NXN less than 24 hours away, there remains no shortage of storylines.
Who will win national titles? Will perfect seasons continue? We dig in below.
1. Will Katelyn Tuohy Get Upset At NXN?
The logical answer to this would be no. Tuohy, a sophomore at North Rockland High (NY) who finished 13th in 2016, has had a season for the ages and will look to finish off a breathtaking fall with her first Nike Cross Nationals title on Saturday at Glendoveer Golf Course in Portland, Oregon. What exactly has Tuohy accomplished in New York?
Not only has she broken records at Van Cortlandt Park (4K), Bear Mountain and Bowdoin Park, but she's dominated in-state power Kelsey Chmiel, a junior at Saratoga Springs, in three straight races. Chmiel has the third highest speed rating on the year at 158. According to TullyRunners' ratings, Tuohy has unleashed one of the best seasons in girls prep history, logging marks over 160 five times and a 172 at New York Federation. No other girl in the country outside of Claudia Lane - who will be at the Foot Locker West Region on Saturday and therefore won't compete with Tuohy - has produced a mark above 158.
What will the field offer in terms of competition? Perhaps Tuohy's most logical competition comes via Texas and McKinney North's London Culbreath, who hasn't had anyone to run with over the course of her campaign. She produced her season-best 16:56 at the UIL Class 6A Championships and went on to win NXR South with a rating of 152. On Thursday, she maintained her goal is to stick with Tuohy. And fun fact: Culbreath was the highest freshman finisher a year ago, ahead of Tuohy in 12th.
Then there's others like Glenbard West (IL) sophomore Katelynne Hart, who will likely go out with the lead pack as well. She finished 18th a year ago as a freshman and has dominated competition in Illinois for much of the season, producing a 16:08 best at 3-miles. Then there's sleepers like Buchanan (CA) High's Corie Smith, Bozeman (MT) High's Camila Noe, Math & Science Academy's Tierney Wolfgram and Mountain View's Lexy Halladay.
This race should be strategic through at least the first 2.5K. But don't be surprised when Tuohy breaks the field.
2. Will Anyone Have a Perfect Season On The Guys Side?
Something has to give.
Both Loudoun Valley (VA) and Great Oak (CA) enter NXN undefeated across the season. Perhaps Great Oak's consistency and depth has been more impressive across the entire season, but the Vikings certainly turned a corner at the VHSL Group 4A Championships, posting a perfect 15-point score.
So what can we expect?
Loudoun Valley will have an obvious low stick with Sam Affolder, while Peter Morris and Colton Bogucki and Jacob Hunter and Connor Wells will form mini-packs behind them.
Great Oak, though, has been tighter in its pack over its past two races, producing a ridiculous 18-second spread at the CIF Division I Championships and 15:36 average. A week earlier, at the CIF Southern Section Finals, were 31 seconds between their first and fifth scorers, averaging 15:01 over the 3-mile course.
Naturally, Loudoun Valley will need to be very cognizant of displacement in the final stretches of NXN on Saturday.
Other boys teams to consider -- while less likely to win -- include Downers Grove North (IL), Wayzata (MN), Mountain Vista (CO) and Springville (UT).
3. How Much Will Weather Impact The Race On Saturday?
As of Friday, the grass at Glendoveer Golf Course was slick and slippery. There was mud in sections and footing was uneven.
The variance of the course will impact runners in small ways, but ultimately that could make a difference. Teams with experience in cold-weather conditions and on grass could have an advantage here. Warm-weather and hard-surface teams, like those out of the Southwest, may have to adjust more than other programs.
The forecast for Saturday is a likely-chance of showers with temperatures just below 50.
Runners won't argue with that. That's what the sport is all about.
4. Will Anyone Break A Course Record?
This seems like it could be done on either side. Tuohy is in epic form and would need to run faster than Katie Rainsberger's 16:56.80 from 2014 -- the first time runners were on Glendoveer.
That would be a course record.
The overall meet record is 16:50.10, last accomplished by Alexa Efraimson on Portland's Great Meadows.
While Tuohy has generated some legendary speed ratings, her PR from this season is 16:52.40. So it will be close.
On the guys side, there's a possibility that Brentwood (TN) Highs' Brodey Hasty or Lincoln Senior (WA) High's James Mwaura could go after Casey Clinger's course record of 15:03.20 from last year.
But the overall meet record would be 15:00.00, from North Central (WA) High's Kai Wilmot in 2013.
Hasty is coming off his season best of 14:36.20 at NXR Southeast while Mwaura posted a best of 14:48.30 at the WIAA Championships on Nov. 4.
5. Can Brodey Hasty Win A National Title On Four Races?
Much has been written about Hasty running unattached this season, but the Brentwood (TN) High senior has a chance to claim a national title anyway.
He's the highest returning finisher from 2016, where he finished third a year ago to Clinger and Sam Worley. But he'll have some great competition in Mwaura, Lyons Township's Danny Kilrea, Lakota East's Dustin Horter and Flower Mound's Alex Maier.
Hasty is certainly the favorite entering this meet and he went 15:37.10 on this course a year ago. But he shouldn't overlook any of his competitors, who have a chance to vie for a title as well.
If Hasty does win a title, though, it would put a rewarding cap to a trying season.