FloTrack Predicts The 500th U.S. Sub-4 Miler
FloTrack Predicts The 500th U.S. Sub-4 Miler
Who will be the 500th U.S. sub-4 miler? FloTrack takes a look at potential milers who could be the one to do it in 2018.
Last week, Donavan Brazier became the 493rd American to break four minutes in the mile. We've seen a total of 68 Americans run sub-four for the first time over the past three years. Therefore, it is very likely that the 500th American to break four minutes will do it during this upcoming indoor season.
Who will the 500th athlete be?
First, we need to take a look at potential first-time sub-four milers in 2018. Below is a list of Americans who ran a 1500 or mile that converts to 4:02 or faster in 2017.
Potential First Time Sub-4 Milers In 2018:
| 2017 Best Mile/1500 | Mile Conversion | Athlete |
| 4:01.49A | 3:55.60 | Ben Saarel |
| 4:01.72A | 3:55.82 | Joe Klecker |
| 3:39.53 | 3:57.09 | Charlie Marquardt |
| 3:39.56 | 3:57.12 | David Ribich |
| 3:39.82 | 3:57.41 | David Timlin |
| 4:03.54A | 3:58.23 | Dillon Maggard |
| 3:40.59 | 3:58.24 | Austin Tamagno |
| 3:40.60 | 3:58.25 | Garrett O'Toole |
| 3:40.73 | 3:58.39 | Jeff Thies |
| 3:40.78 | 3:58.44 | Scott Snow |
| 3:40.85 | 3:58.52 | Alex Rogers |
| 3:41.21 | 3:58.91 | Caleb Hoover |
| 4:07.52A# | 3:59.13 | Diego Leon |
| 3:41.44 | 3:59.16 | Will Crocker |
| 3:41.68 | 3:59.41 | Chase Horrocks |
| 3:41.76 | 3:59.50 | Kasey Knevelbaard |
| 3:42.12 | 3:59.89 | MJ Erb |
| 4:00.08 | 4:00.08 | Ethan Homan |
| 3:42.37 | 4:00.16 | Jesse Reiser |
| 4:00.16 | 4:00.16 | Cooper Teare |
| 3:42.46 | 4:00.26 | Christian Delago |
| 3:42.50 | 4:00.30 | Mick Stanovsek |
| 3:42.52 | 4:00.32 | Kyle Burdick |
| 4:00.37 | 4:00.37 | Kyle Mau |
| 3:42.60 | 4:00.41 | Arturo Sotomayor |
| 4:00.47 | 4:00.47 | Trevor Gilley |
| 3:42.66 | 4:00.47 | Isaac Garcia-Cassani |
| 4:00.50 | 4:00.50 | Brandon Hazouri |
| 4:00.60 | 4:00.60 | Luis Vargas |
| 4:00.61 | 4:00.61 | Sam Worley |
| 3:42.81 | 4:00.63 | Shane Streich |
| 4:00.65 | 4:00.65 | Eric Holt |
| 4:00.65 | 4:00.65 | Brian Shrader |
| 3:42.86 | 4:00.69 | Austin O'Neil |
| 3:42.87 | 4:00.70 | Sydney Gidabuday |
| 4:00.73 | 4:00.73 | D.J. Principe |
| 3:42.90 | 4:00.73 | Ryan Adams |
| 3:42.95 | 4:00.79 | Jefferson Abbey |
| 3:42.96 | 4:00.80 | Brandon Doughty |
| 4:00.87 | 4:00.87 | Jack Thomas |
| 3:43.08 | 4:00.93 | Daniel Gagne |
| 3:43.09 | 4:00.94 | Kyle Medina |
| 3:43.16 | 4:01.01 | Eric van der Els |
| 4:01.04 | 4:01.04 | Vincent Ciattei |
| 4:01.08 | 4:01.08 | Jon Davis |
| 3:43.26 | 4:01.12 | Carl Hirsch |
| 3:43.34 | 4:01.21 | Marcus Dickson |
| 3:43.45 | 4:01.33 | Derek Wiebke |
| 3:43.46 | 4:01.34 | Austin Anaya |
| 3:43.48 | 4:01.36 | Matt Dorsey |
| 4:01.46 | 4:01.46 | Kevin Greene |
| 3:43.58 | 4:01.47 | Octavio Davila |
| 3:43.62 | 4:01.51 | Nick Rivera |
| 3:43.63 | 4:01.52 | Jack Guyton |
| 4:01.55 | 4:01.55 | Patrick Gregory |
| 3:43.67 | 4:01.56 | Dan Curts |
| 3:43.70 | 4:01.60 | Michael Hall |
| 4:01.76 | 4:01.76 | Brodey Hasty |
| 3:43.89 | 4:01.80 | Blake Nelson |
| 3:43.98 | 4:01.90 | Christopher Marco |
| 4:01.91 | 4:01.91 | Luis Romero |
| 3:44.01 | 4:01.93 | Dan Castle |
After analyzing these 62 athletes' potential 2018 indoor seasons, we've come up with this list for the next seven U.S. sub-4 milers.
| # | Athlete | Meet | Date |
| 494 | Brandon Hazouri | Samford Collegiate Invitational | JAN 19TH |
| 495 | Eric Holt | BU John Thomas Terrier Classic | JAN 27TH |
| 496 | Ethan Homan | BU John Thomas Terrier Classic | JAN 27TH |
| 497 | Charlie Marquardt | Dr. Sander Invitational | JAN 27TH |
| 498 | Trevor Gilley | Razorback Invitational | JAN 27TH |
| 499 | Ben Saarel | UW Invitational | JAN 27TH |
| 500 | Joe Klecker | UW Invitational | JAN 27TH |
In this scenario, the UW Invitational mile will be the race to decide who will become the 500th American to break four minutes in the mile and the action will be LIVE on FloTrack!
Watch last year's UW Invitational mile, which was won by Justyn Knight:
