There are 22 men entered to compete in the 800m at the USA Indoor Championships in Albuquerque, New Mexico, this weekend. Only five, however, currently have the qualifying standard that will allow them to advance to the World Indoor Championships next month. That fact will add a different dynamic to the race, as the goal becomes not just to be one of those first two past the fine line but also to possess a qualifying standard.

800m Prelim: Saturday, 3:14 PM MT
800m Final: Sunday, 3:33 PM MT

The likely outcome is that the standard won’t come into play and the first two finishers will come from the five men who have run under the mark of 1:46.50. Donavan Brazier sits atop that list. 

The 20-year-old has had a superb last two weeks. Brazier ran 1:45.35 at the Millrose Games and then 1:45.11 at the New Balance Indoor Grand Prix. Those are the third- and fourth-best indoor marks by an American all-time. But will Brazier continue to excel when the competition shifts away from paced races and toward the unpredictably of a championship setting? It’s likely.

Indoors favors fast starters like Brazier, or at the very least, it doesn’t punish them as severely. Based on what we’ve seen so far this indoor season, Brazier looks comfortably ahead of his closest competitors. Even if he has an off race, Brazier still appears more than capable of finishing in one of the top two positions.  

Chasing Brazier will be Drew Windle and Clayton Murphy. Both aren’t natural front-runners and are expected to lay off the quick pace and try to close quickly. Both also have the world championship standard so they only have to concern themselves with place. Windle finished third at Millrose, closing hard to run 1:45.53 behind Brazier. None of Murphy’s performances this season have been exceptional, but he has trended upward this winter. This indoor season he’s run four times — two times at the Dempsey Indoor facility in Seattle and two times at the Armory in New York City. His performances in Seattle went from 1:51.44 in January to 1:48.36 last week. In New York, his marks improved from 1:50.47 to 1:46.61 in consecutive weeks. 

Two other men have the world championship standard, Sam Ellison and Cas Loxsom. Ellison snuck under the mark by 0.01 last weekend at Boston University. His time of 1:46.49 is a lifetime best. Loxsom hasn’t broken 1:49 this year and his qualifying mark comes from 2017.

There’s also the possibility that someone outside this group could finish in the top two and run under 1:46.50 to secure his place on the team. Erik Sowinski looks like the best candidate to do that. He took third at the World Indoor Championships and has been rock solid this indoor season. Sowinski has run within half a second of the standard three times in the past three weeks, clocking times of 1:46.98, 1:46.91, and 1:46.57. Still, he’s been unable to get under the 1:46.50 that would make his path to the World Championships last much easier. With the deadline to meet the standard set for February 19, this weekend in Albuquerque looks like his final opportunity.