19 Things To Look Forward To In 2019: Part 2
19 Things To Look Forward To In 2019: Part 2
The second half of our list of the 19 things we're excited to see in track and field this year.
We highlighted the first 10 things we’re excited to see in 2019 in a post yesterday. Here are the remaining nine:
11) Will Mo Farah return to the track?
Farah’s coach, Gary Lough, has already hinted that the 10-time gold medalist could return to the track in 2019 as he said Farah wants to run at the World Championships. Given that the marathon in Doha is shaping up to be farcical -- the race is scheduled to be run at midnight to avoid scorching temperatures -- all indications are pointing to a return to the oval for the soon-to-be 36-year-old. And even after taking some time away from the track, I would expect Farah’s speed to still be sufficient enough for him to battle for gold.
12) U.S. Steeplechase: Can Coburn/Frerichs repeat 2017 magic? Can Jager keep improving?
2019 will be a huge year for the top U.S. steeplechasers. Defending world champion Emma Coburn and 2017 silver medalist/American record holder Courtney Frerichs will both look to recapture their London magic at the World Championships in Doha while also battling each other again for the American record, while Evan Jager will seek the two elements still missing from his illustrious resume: a gold medal and a sub-8:00 performance.
The women’s steeplechase received a jolt when Beatrice Chepkoech shockingly chopped eight seconds off of the world record with her 8:44.32 performance last July, a mark that Coburn and Frerichs can’t hope to match if Chepkoech goes full bore at the World Championships. Chepkoech has yet to prove herself as a savvy championship racer -- she was fourth at the 2016 Olympics and 2017 World Championships -- but the 8:44 has put the 27-year-old Kenyan in an entirely different stratosphere if she’s on form. The two Americans will hope Chepkoech returns to Earth in 2019 so that another 1-2 finish is possible in Doha.
Even with Chepkoech so far ahead of the pack right now, the battle for American supremacy between Coburn and Frerichs will be a fantastic storyline for domestic fans. Coburn has been the face of the event in the U.S. for nearly a decade (she’s won seven national titles since 2011), but Frerichs very nearly became the sixth woman in history to break 9:00 with her 9:00.85 American record in July. Coburn has only lost once in 13 tries against Frerichs, but 2019 will present the world champ with the stiffest test to her U.S. dominance to date.
Jager has been knocking on the sub-8:00 door ever since his unforgettable 8:00.45 American record in 2015, and cracking the barrier has always seemed to be a matter of “when” rather than “if.” But Jager will be 30 in March, and even though he got a late start in the steeple, I imagine he’s on the downslope of his physical peak in the event as opposed to the upslope. In the same vein, the path to the gold medal missing from Jager’s mantle -- he has the silver from 2016 and the bronze from 2017 -- has a serious obstacle in the form of 24-year-old Kenyan Conseslus Kipruto, who has dominated the steeple for the last three years.
13) Can NAU 4-Peat At NCAA XC?
It’s been 25 years since a men’s Division I team has pulled off a four-peat at NCAA XC, but that’s the mountain the Lumberjacks from Northern Arizona will attempt to summit in 2019. And with the losses of their two best runners, Tyler Day and Matt Baxter, plus Peter Lomong, NAU will face the biggest challenge to its dynasty yet.
Still, Mike Smith’s group is loaded with talent. NAU returns three All-Americans from 2018 -- Luis Grijalva (23rd), Blaise Ferro (26th) and Georgie Beamish (39th) -- and will add the nation’s top redshirt freshman in 4:00 miler Brodey Hasty. They may not have the depth of their stacked 2018 team, but the Lumberjacks still have the best team on paper for next season.
14) Which NCAA stars emerge?
2018 was one of the best years for NCAA track and field in recent memory. Young stars like Michael Norman, Rai Benjamin and Sydney McLaughlin skyrocketed to the upper echelon of the sport, all producing times that not only put them atop NCAA history but also among the very best ever in the world. Now that those three have left for greener, professional pastures, it’s hard to imagine performances of such a caliber being repeated in 2019.
Even though their departures have seemingly left a considerable void, underclassmen like Lynna Irby, Mondo Duplantis and Sammy Watson will try to fill it. Duplantis was literally the best pole vaulter in the world in 2018, while Irby and Watson both won NCAA titles as freshmen. The talent cupboard is not bare in the NCAA.
15) What does Eliud Kipchoge do for an encore?
The marathon world record holder has replaced the retired Usain Bolt as the biggest star in the sport, and distance fans are eagerly awaiting the 34-year-old’s announcement of which marathon he will line up for next. Kipchoge has been appointment viewing for years now, but the attention he will garner in his first race since the 2:01:39 in Berlin will be off the charts; the Kenyan has the entirety of the running world on the edge of their seats.
Of course, the odds-on-favorite remains London in April, a race Kipchoge has won three times and owns the 2:03:05 course record from 2016. Even though I selfishly want him to race Boston, London will likely back up the Brinks truck for Kipchoge to make sure their champ doesn’t go elsewhere. Boston would do the same, of course, but Kipchoge has said he wants to run 2:02, which, tongue-in-cheek or not, indicates that London is the likely pick.
16) Can Allyson Felix make another U.S. team?
The incomparable Felix has made every outdoor U.S. team since she was a 17-year-old in 2003, but the new mom, who gave birth to a daughter in November, will face her stiffest professional test yet if she competes for one of the three spots for Doha. Three new American women broke 50 seconds in the 400m for the first time in 2018 -- Shakima Wimbley, Lynna Irby and Kendall Ellis -- joining established names like 2017 world champion Phyllis Francis (who has a bye to the World Champs), Quanera Hayes and Natasha Hastings as strong contenders to make the team.
Raising her newborn daughter while gearing up for one last Olympics in 2020 are likely bigger priorities for Felix this year, but I still wouldn’t count out the 33-year-old in 2019, even against such tough competition. The experience factor is huge, and let’s not act like her abilities are plummeting -- she’s the only 400m woman to medal in both the 2016 Olympics and 2017 World Championships.
17) How does Mondo handle the NCAA season?
It’s still hard for me to believe that Mondo Duplantis, after winning the 2018 European title and jumping an astronomical 6.05m, did not turn professional, and yet the 19-year-old has strong ties to LSU and you can’t blame him for wanting a taste of college life. It will be interesting to see how frequently Duplantis competes for the Tigers in 2019 given that his overarching goal is to be at his best for the World Championships in late September and early October.
That said, Duplantis competed early and often in 2018 and showed no ill-effects by the end, as his 6.05m breakout performance came on Aug. 12. This season will be longer than any other, however, so his approach will likely be more measured by necessity; don’t expect Duplantis to go chasing 6.00m+ every weekend, especially indoors.
My best guess is that he’ll slowly build up during indoor, competing for LSU at only SECs and NCAAs, before attacking his usual busy outdoor schedule.
18) Will it be 1,500m or 5,000m for 2018 sensation Shelby Houlihan?
25-year-old American Shelby Houlihan owned 2018, and she did so across two distances -- 1,500m and 5,000m -- while possessing perhaps the most lethal kick of any female distance runner in the world. In the 1,500m she won two Diamond League meetings, the national title and ran 3:57, while in the longer event Houlihan also won the U.S. title and set the American record in Heusden with a stunning 14:34. With her success across both distances in 2018, a dilemma awaits the Bowerman star in 2019: will it be 1,500m or 5,000m at the World Championships?
The double is simply not possible this year; the women’s 1,500m and 5,000m finals are literally back-to-back on Oct. 5 in Doha. So Houlihan will have to choose, and each option has its pros and cons. For the 1,500m, Houlihan has to like her kick in a championship setting, but she also has never run the event on such a stage; this would be her first foray into the three-round system.
In the 5,000m, Houlihan has the global experience from making the 2016 Olympic and 2017 World Championship finals, but the event is also loaded with women who have run faster than her -- six women were better than her 14:34 PR in 2018, while only one was faster in the 1,500m.
Whichever event wins out for Houlihan, 2018 showed that she’s going to be a force to be reckoned with going forward.
19) Will the U.S. men dominate the sprints?
American men topped the world lists in the 100m, 200m and 400m in 2018 led by three men -- Christian Coleman, Noah Lyles, and Michael Norman -- all in their early 20s. One doesn’t have to be American-biased to see that this trio could soon combine to dominate the sprints in ways not seen since before the Usain Bolt era. The big question for each is whether or not they can translate spectacular 2018 campaigns into gold in Doha.
Lyles, who went undefeated in the 200m last year and has won back-to-back Diamond League titles, would seem to have the path of least resistance among the three. If he’s on form running in the 19.6 range, there likely won’t be anyone able to touch him.
The same could be said for Coleman in the 100m, but he first has to prove he can stay healthy. When the 22-year-old finally did return to 100-percent for the Diamond League final in Brussels on Aug. 31, he scorched a 9.79, good for seventh all-time. That’s more in line with the guy who set the 60m world record last February; Coleman has more talent than anybody in the 100m right now, and how he holds up over the course of a long season will be a big storyline to follow.
For Norman, he has a clear foe in world record holder Wayde van Niekerk, but we don’t yet know what 2019 will look like for the Olympic champ as he returns to the track for first time since 2017. There is a fair chance that the South African will never return to his 43.03 days coming off the ACL tear, especially this season, which leaves the door open for the 21-year-old 43.61 man Norman to rule the event this year. No one ran a time within a quarter of a second of the former USC star in 2018.