Our next installment of event previews for the 2019 World Championships in Doha, Qatar, focuses on the men’s sprints. 

Men’s 100m

Reigning Champion: Justin Gatlin

2019 Diamond League Champion: Noah Lyles

Event Schedule: Sept. 27 (Prelim and Round 1); Sept. 28 (Semifinal, Final)

Analysis: 

One month ago, Christian Coleman’s season was in peril after USADA charged him with an anti-doping violation for whereabouts failures. A likely run to a gold took a detour and threatened to keep him out of these World Championships and possibly next year’s Olympics. Days before a hearing where his punishment would be decided, USADA dropped their case, allowing Coleman to compete immediately. 

Bigger picture implications aside (Coleman gave a full-throated response to the saga here), the case temporarily kept him off the track; he missed planned appearances in Birmingham and Zurich while his case was still open. Coleman’s absence in the final two meets of the season was the only real hiccup in a 2019 campaign where he won the U.S. title and turned in the two fastest times of the year. 

Christian Coleman runs the world's fastest 100m of 2019, a 9.81 to beat Justin Gatlin at the Pre Classic. Only one man has broken 9.85 in 2017, 2018 or 2019. It's Coleman who has done it every year this Olympic cycle. pic.twitter.com/DtSH9XjwV6

— Nick Zaccardi (@nzaccardi) June 30, 2019

It’s been two months since Coleman raced. But during those two months, nobody threatened Coleman’s status as favorite. Noah Lyles won the Diamond League race in Zurich but won’t be competing in the 100m in Doha. Justin Gatlin hasn’t raced since he pulled up with a hamstring injury at the beginning of September. His manager said he was able to return to training after the incident, but he will need to recapture the form from the beginning of the year to challenge Coleman.

After those two, the chase for the medals is wide open. Eleven men expected to race in Doha have run between 9.86 and 9.97 this year. That includes 2011 world champion Yohan Blake, two-time bronze medalist Andre De Grasse as well as Zharnel Hughes, Akani Simbine, and Mike Rodgers. All have plenty of experience in championship settings. Zhenye Xie hasn’t broken 10 seconds this year, but he did finish second to Lyles at the Diamond League final ahead of Blake, Gatlin, and Simbine. 

In short, Coleman is rightfully the big favorite. The build-up was far from ideal for him, though his margin to the rest of the field is still significant. 

Men’s 200m

Reigning Champion: Ramil Guliyev

2019 Diamond League Champion: Noah Lyles

Event Schedule: Sept. 29 (Round 1); Sept. 30 (Semifinal); Oct. 1 (Final)

Analysis: 

You’d have to work really hard to mount a case against Noah Lyles in this race. Yes, he’s never won a global championship and yes, anything can happen in one race, but Lyles seems immune from those critiques. 

His 2019 season, much like his 2018 season, was spectacular. He has the two fastest 200m times of the year, a pair of Diamond League titles, and only one loss in six 200m finals this year. The loss came at the hands of Michael Norman, who ran 19.70 to Lyles’ 19.72 in Lyles’ 200m opener at the beginning of June. In his next 200m, Lyles ran a lifetime best of 19.50, the eighth-fastest mark in history. The time, along with Norman’s decision to just run the 400m, removed any doubt about what would happen in Doha. 

The 19.50 also put the American record on the table. Michael Johnson’s 19.32 would still take a big leap, but if the track and conditions cooperate Lyles is setting a personal best at the very least. 

Fastest 200m runners in ? history

19.19 - Usain Bolt
19.26 - Yohan Blake
19.32 - Michael Johnson
19.50 - Noah Lyles ?pic.twitter.com/859bs37KTN

— Travis Miller (@TravisMillerFlo) July 5, 2019

The strength of his race is in the second half, but there are those out there who can press him for the first 100m. Christian Coleman took second to Lyles at USAs and has run more 200s this season than in 2018. Presumably, he will be racing with nothing to lose after winning the 100m. Andre De Grasse, Yohan Blake, and Zharnel Hughes will be doubling back from the 100m as well. Ramil Guliyev, the 2017 world champion, had his best race of the year when he took second in the Diamond League final in 19.86. 

De Grasse was just behind in 19.87, also his best performance of 2019. Aaron Brown and Alex Quinonez were fourth and fifth in that race. Both men have had career years. Brown has run 19.95 while Quinonez ran 19.87. 

Divine Oduduru sits third on the yearly list with a mark of 19.73 from the NCAA Championships in June. Since then, his fastest time is 20.45. 

The United States will have four entrants in this event with Kenny Bednarek and Rodney Rowe joining Lyles and Coleman. It’s been quite a year for Bednark, who ran 19.82 at the JUCO Championships in May. Like Oduduru, he struggled to find his form after the collegiate season. But he looked to be on his way at USAs until he pulled up in the final with a hamstring injury. Despite limping to the finish in last place, Bednarek advanced to Doha because only Lyles, Coleman, and Rowe had the qualifying standard. Once Lyles won the Diamond League and got a bye, Bednarek was the next man up. The circuitous route to Doha will all be forgotten if he’s able to pull out a medal. 

Men’s 400m

Reigning Champion: Wayde Van Niekerk

2019 Diamond League Champion: Michael Norman

Event Schedule: Oct. 1 (Round 1); Oct 2. (Semifinal); Oct 4. (Final)

Analysis: 

Perhaps no other event in the meet better exemplifies the sheer length of the season than the men’s 400m. Over the past five months, there have been several distinct acts, beginning with Michael Norman’s 43.45 opener at Mt. SAC in April. 

That performance was followed up by Norman’s 19.70 in the 200m at the beginning of June. All signs pointed to a gold medal for Norman and perhaps a world record. But at USAs, Norman lost to Fred Kerley. 

Michael Norman beats Noah Lyles in Rome 200m. 19.70 to 19.72. pic.twitter.com/leVvenciQD

— Nick Zaccardi (@nzaccardi) June 6, 2019

Kerley’s 43.64 in Des Moines was a lifetime best and a well-earned victory to Norman’s 43.79. After the race, Norman said that an injury curtailed his build-up to the meet. Nonetheless, the race was a clear indication that Kerley was going to be a massive obstacle and this season wasn’t going to just be Michael Norman vs the clock. 

Six weeks later, the event took another turn: Norman responded with a win at the Diamond League final. Conditions kept the time north of 44 seconds and Norman took the victory by two tenths. It wasn’t a massive margin, but the way Norman pulled away over the last 50 meters was reminiscent of the other great Norman races we’ve seen the past two season. 

What does all this mean for Doha? It’s hard to know where this event goes next. At a given point in the season, you could have said Michael Norman is going to be the first man in history to break 43 seconds and not seemed crazy. At another point, you could have said he isn’t going to win the world title and also not seemed crazy. 

Based on personal bests, season bests, and the past two years, most people at this point would lean toward Norman. It does look like a two-man race, though. Steven Gardiner is best positioned to change that. He just ran his season-best of 44.14 last week and has a lifetime best of 43.97. Akeem Bloomfield has also run under 44 seconds and was with Kerley and Norman in Brussels before fading down the stretch. And 2012 Olympic champion Kirani James appeared out of nowhere at the beginning of September and ran 44.47. That was his first race of 2019 and just his sixth since he won the silver medal at the 2016 Olympics. 

The 400m will also feature some interesting potential doubles. 400m hurdler Karsten Warholm is entered in the event and will be all done with his primary event before the 400m kicks off. Emmanuel Korir, known primarily for his work in the 800m, is entered in both events.