In the spirit of the new year, FloTrack staff writers Kevin Sully and Lincoln Shryack are looking forward to 2020 and breaking down the biggest potential storylines for the upcoming season. Below, they outline 20 of the top stories/questions that may define the Olympic year. This is Part II of their conversation. Click here for Part I.

11. A return of Wayde van Niekerk?

Lincoln:

A conversation about Michael Norman naturally lends itself to Wayde van Niekerk. Are we finally going to see the South African again after 2019's false start?

Kevin:

I hope we see him, if only so I can end my two-year grudge against charity rugby matches. As Fred Kerley mentioned last year, "something's gonna drop," in the men's 400m. The return of Van Niekerk, a fully healthy Norman and an emergent Steven Gardiner gives this event a high ceiling. 

It's crazy to think how much different 2019 would have been if Van Niekerk didn't tear his ACL at the end of 2017, but after only racing once last year, I'd expect him to be a full-go in the 400m this season. The question then becomes, how good can he be? He's 27. That makes you a veteran in the 400m world, though missing all of the last two years has put fewer races on his body.

I don't think he can get back to world record level, but 43-mid (around what he ran in 2017) is a possibility. If Norman is fully optimized, it won't be enough to beat him, but last year was so weird in this event, I'm not confident in anything in the 400m.

12. What are you looking forward to watching at the 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials at new Hayward?

Kevin:

Before we get to Tokyo, we obviously have the U.S. Trials in Eugene where spots on the #HardestTeamToMake are handed out. Which event(s) are you most interested in watching in Eugene?

Lincoln:

First off, I can't wait to see your reaction to new Hayward. How are you going to feel when you first gaze upon a gigantic tower where the east grandstands used to be?

But to the Trials, I'm just pumped to watch and listen to distance races in front of an Oregon crowd again. All respect to Des Moines and Sacramento, but no other fanbase in the States comes close to Eugene during a 5k or 10k. I suppose if I had to choose one race, the men's 5k stands out. After the Paul Chelimo-Bowerman antics in 2019, this race should have an extra edge with Tokyo spots on the line. Plus, Lopez Lomong and Woody Kincaid will actually have the standard this time. No Paul Chelimo pacing required.

Kevin:

I plan on blind-folding myself from several blocks away to delay any serious episodes when I see the stadium for the first time. Hoping I can enlist your help in finding our seats.

5000m will be great. For the men, it comes before the 10,000m, which is a departure from previous editions. That could shake things up a bit since nobody will have a spot on the team already secured when they run the 5000m. 

The men's high hurdles and the women's high and low hurdles will be ridiculous. There are no byes to the Olympics, so it's just the first three across the line. If you are picking a big name to not make the team, I think it would be in one of these three events. The 800m is always interesting at this meet. 2008 brought us the "Oregon sweep" with Christian Smith diving across the line. In 2016, a late-race pile-up left several women in tears and plenty of post-race discussion about who was in the wrong. 

Lots of others to choose from though.

Lincoln:

I'm just excited to experience the Olympic Trials at Hayward Field for the first time, even if the atmosphere is totally different from before.

13. Will Allyson Felix make a fifth Olympic team?

Lincoln:

When I think about the Trials in Eugene, I think of Allyson Felix. All her Trials' triumphs, the 100m saga of 2012 with Tarmoh, and this year she'll be going for her fifth Olympic team. 

Felix made a remarkable post-pregnancy comeback to finish sixth in the U.S. 400m and make the 2019 relay pool. But does she have another top three finish in her at age 34? 2019 was the first time she didn't qualify for a single individual global championship event since she was 15, but she did have a baby eight months before USAs. In that context, sixth was a very impressive showing in Des Moines. I think she'll be in way better shape this year and will find her way to Tokyo in the 400m.

Kevin:

The women's 400m field is challenging, but not overwhelmingly so. Wadeline Jonathas had a breakout year in 2019 and Phyllis Francis made another final in Doha and there will inevitably be several NCAA runners capable of running in the mid to low 50-second range. I'd put Felix's chances between 20 and 45%, so she can definitely pull it off.

14. How will collegiate athletes impact the Trials?

Kevin:

Speaking of NCAAs, what impact do you think the college kids will have at the Trials? The two meets are a week apart, the complete opposite of 2019 when there was a seven-week break between the two. Will this help the NCAA athletes? Hurt? Have no impact?

Lincoln:

I think the close proximity of the two meets can only help the collegians. We saw how the long layoff can negatively impact an NCAA star-- Sha'Carri Richardson missing the team after running 10.75 at NCAAs as the prime example-- and now these athletes won't have to come down from a peak only to go right back up nearly two months later.

As is the case every year, so many college stars left early to turn pro. Gone are Holloway, Roberts, Richardson, Mondo, Jonathas and Hoppel just to name a few. Is there a new wave of talent coming to take their place? Who will be the breakout NCAA stars of 2020?

Kevin:

The NCAA repopulates quickly so while it may not be as top-heavy as recent seasons, there will be someone we didn't see coming who makes the Olympic team. 

In the women's sprints and hurdles, USC has ridiculous depth and breadth. They could sweep every event at NCAAs, which has to be some kind of record. Their most experienced international competitor, Angie Annelus, is going for a three-peat in the 200m, an event where she made the U.S. team and placed fourth in Doha. She's already established, so I don't know if she counts as a "breakout" though.

For the men, I'm interested to see if Devin Dixon of Texas A&M can get it done in the 800m after finishing in the top five the last three NCAA championships. He's an enormous talent. If he can figure out the tactics, it's not a huge leap for him to carry the NCAA success to a big run at the Trials.

Lincoln:

On paper, those two are the biggest stars in the NCAA. I agree, of course, somebody we're not thinking of will burst onto the scene without notice. Can't wait for it.

15. What's next for Salwa Eid Naser and Shaunae Miller-Uibo after their epic 400m in Doha?

Lincoln: 

Now, let's turn back to the pros. We were fortunate to watch the majority of the World Championship finals from the stands in Doha. So many great memories came from that, but the one that dropped my jaw the most was the women's 400m. 48.14 for crying out loud! Salwa Eid Naser made herself a legend in that one race, and I'm curious where you think her rivalry with Shaunae Miller-Uibo goes in 2020. 

Who has the upper hand now that both women are among the best ever in the 400m? Remember, Miller-Uibo was a huge favorite entering Doha and now she'll be defending her 400m Olympic title in Tokyo. Is there anyway these women run faster this season?

Kevin:

I'm going to say, no. I think that race was a one-off in the same way the women's 200m final was in 2015 when Dafne Schippers ran 21.63 to Elaine Thompson's 21.66. Both women have obviously run fast times since then, but there was something special that night in Beijing that they haven't been able to recapture. 

Looking back on 2019, it's interesting to think that if the schedule allowed for a double, Miller-Uibo probably would have won gold in the 200m (and not the 400m). Dina Asher-Smith ran a great race, but Miller-Uibo has beaten her the last six times they've raced in the 200m. Weird how that could have worked out. 

For 2020, the double is possible as we mentioned in part 1 of this column and I'd expect Miller-Uibo to go for both. On August 4th, she'd have the opening round of the 400m in the morning and the finals of the 200m that evening. That's doable, and if Miller-Uibo is as strong as she was the previous years in the 200m, I think she'd be the favorite. The 400m is still a toss up. Yes, Naser brought it in Doha, but it's not hard to imagine Miller-Ubio flipping that result in Tokyo.

Lincoln:

I think 2020 is a revenge tour year for SMU. Coming away with zero golds was a major disappointment last season after the year she had and two golds is certainly a possibility in Tokyo. I think she wins gold in the two and the four this time around.

16. Make your top three picks for the U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials...

Kevin:

Let's stick with the pros, but go back to the Trials...the marathon trials, specifically. Who gets the three spots on the US team?

Lincoln:

Ah yes, the marathon trials. Less than 60 days to go. 

The men are a little more clear for me: I have Rupp, Ward, and Leonard Korir as my top three. Scott Fauble is the odd man out in that scenario, but I could certainly see him in there. 

For the women, things get a little more complicated. Jordan Hasay is coming off an injury, has a new coach and has never run the Trials before. Other than those factors, she'd be an easy pick to make the team for me. But you have to consider those factors. I think Des Linden will make this team, which would be her third. She's rock solid, and as she's shown in New York and Boston, she runs well on challenging courses like the one in Atlanta. My last spot goes to another Trials newbie, Emily Sisson. She ran so well in London in her debut (2:23:08), the second-fastest ever by an American, and I think 26.2 will end up being her best distance.

Of course, so many women are left out when I select those three-- Molly Huddle, Sara Hall, reigning Trials champion Amy Cragg and Kellyn Taylor to name a few. Any of those names could crack the top three as well. Who do you have?

Kevin:

I'm with you, I'm not picking against Linden in a top-three setting. Sisson was solid in London and she looks like she moved up in distance at the exact right moment. For me, it's between Huddle and Hasay for the third spot. If Hasay pops a good half in the lead-up and shows that she's completely past her injury, I might lean toward her, but until then I'm rolling with Huddle. There's so much depth that you could make a decent argument for an entirely different top three. 

For the men, it all depends on Rupp. If he's on the line, then he will make the team. He doesn't have to be at 100% for top three, but we have no idea of his fitness. Korir is inexperienced at the distance, though when someone runs that far under 2:10 in the debut, you have to take note. Jared Ward doesn't really have bad races and I don't see why that trend would change now.

Lincoln:

In your women's scenario, you're picking a team of zero VaporFly wearers. It's your funeral, buddy.

Kevin: 

Des Linden: drinker of bourbon (which is a whiskey, Larry), slayer of shoe narratives.

17. Will Mo Farah win 10,000m gold in Tokyo?

Lincoln:

Let's stick with distance and talk about Mo Farah. Is he winning 10,000m gold in Tokyo? Was the return to the track a smart move? I would answer "yes" to both questions, as I don't think his superior finishing speed has suddenly disappeared just because he's been focusing on the marathon. But guys like Joshua Cheptegei and Yomif Kejelcha are certainly going to be tough outs.

Kevin:

For Farah, the track was the obvious choice. There's a much better chance of a gold medal there and he's not running in Eliud Kipchoge's shadow. 

Cheptegei had a sensational 2019, but he definitely can be beaten. I do think Farah will be a step slower than he was--not because of the marathon, but because he's going to be 37 next year. Can he pull it off? Yes, but I think he needs a combination of some poor strategic running from his competitors in Tokyo and/or a down year for the event.

Lincoln:

Aside from simply the Olympics, I'm curious what Farah's 2020 season will look like as a whole. Now that there's no Diamond League 5ks to run, will he run 3ks on the circuit? That would seem to be a challenge at this point in his career. I'm fascinated to see how he approaches 2020.

18. Will Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce win her third Olympic 100m title?

Lincoln:

Speaking of comebacks, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce made a big one in 2019 to win 100m gold after missing 2017 with the birth of her first child. She ended up running in the 10.7s on four occasions and arguably had one of the best years of her storied career. She dominated in Doha, which I don't think anyone saw coming entering the year. Will SAFP win her third 100m Olympic title in 2020?

Kevin:

It's hard to imagine her path to gold will be as smooth as it was in 2019--someone has to emerge, don't they? Running under 10.80 seems like a prerequisite for an Olympic title. Fraser-Pryce is locked into that time and even if she slows a bit in the new year, I think she can still run 10.7 when she needs to. 

Since the last Olympics, only two women other than Fraser-Pryce have run under 10.80--Elaine Thompson and Sha'Carri Richardson. Thompson finds herself in a constant fight to stay healthy. Richardson has the talent, but 2020 will be in her first full pro season. I'm picking SAFP to pull off the Olympic triple.

Lincoln:

I just think the variables for her competitors are much greater than they are for her. Plus, no one is better in the championship races.

19. Who are your dark horse picks to emerge, either domestically or internationally, in 2020?

Kevin:

We've talked a bunch about the big names. Give me one super-super-super dark horse for 2020 who will be in the mix this year.

Lincoln:

How about Kenny Bednarek as a dark horse? Yes, I know he technically made the U.S. team for Doha, but the former junior college star was unable to show the best of himself due to injury after turning pro in the summer. 

But if he can reach the level that saw him run 19.82 in May last year-- granted, at altitude-- he can be a factor in the medal hunt in Tokyo. There's a lot of hurdles to clear along the way, but you don't run the fourth-fastest time in the world last year by accident.

Who's your pick?

Kevin:

I guess you can define "in the mix" a couple of different ways, but I think one of the Arkansas women (Taylor Werner/Katie Izzo) could make the U.S. team in the 5000m. 

I'm interested in how Sinclaire Johnson does after a huge 2019 and a decision to run professionally. The women's 1500m is stacked both in the United States and internationally, so Johnson will need to take another step forward in 2020. Janeek Brown ran 12.40 to win the high hurdles at NCAAs. She ran out of gas by Doha for good reason. Like Johnson, she will be in her first professional season and will have the opportunity to now only focus on the big meets. 

Lincoln:

I could see Sinclaire Johnson becoming a star this year. Her trajectory was very sharp in 2019, and yet she kept improving all they way to the U.S. final where she ran 4:03. Each of the 1500m top three at USAs last year made the World Championship final, and Johnson was right there with them in Des Moines.

20.  Who wins World Athletics Athlete of the Year?

Lincoln:

All right, let's wrap up this chat. Give me your picks for World Athletics (still getting used to this) male and female athletes of the year. I'll go first.

Noah Lyles and Shaunae Miller-Uibo. Who do you got?

Kevin:

Oh man, so many to choose from. I could see Timothy Cheruiyot pulling off an undefeated season and making a strong case. Or Fraser-Pryce repeating her 2019 season. Can I pick whichever man prevails in the 400m hurdles? No? That's not allowed?

Ok, Sifan Hassan and Eliud Kipchoge.

Lincoln:

I would avoid the men's 400m hurdles this year because I think they could end up canceling each other out. Nice picks, though.

Here's to a great year.