In the spirit of the new year, FloTrack staff writers Kevin Sully and Lincoln Shryack are looking forward to 2020 and breaking down the biggest potential storylines for the upcoming season. Below, they outline 20 of the top stories/questions that may define the Olympic year. Here is their conversation.

1. Christian Coleman vs. Noah Lyles in the 100m...

Lincoln: 

You know Kevin, with every passing year this list becomes more of a challenge, but after a wild 2019 I’m sure we can come up with 20 things to get excited about for the new year. It's an Olympic year after all, and soon the wider world will find out that Usain Bolt is no longer running track.

I’ll start. The idea of Christian Coleman facing Noah Lyles in the 100m in Tokyo is much more enticing than those two just dominating their respective events like they did last year. I can't wait for these two to compete for the title of world's best sprinter in 2020.

We all remember what happened in their lone 100m battle of 2019— the matching 9.86s in Shanghai that led to a social media spat— and I can only imagine that the fireworks will be dramatically amplified with an Olympic gold medal on the line. They seem to have squashed their beef, but let’s not pretend like they’re suddenly best friends. What I’m really curious to see is if Lyles can hang with Coleman’s fast start and dip into the 9.7s. I think he’ll have to to have any chance against the reigning 100m world champ.

Kevin: 

This is a great place to start. I feel like Lyles’ 100m progression came a year ahead of schedule with his run in Shanghai and his Diamond League victory (Coleman was absent from that meet dealing with his USADA case). Remember, up until the Monaco Diamond League he was still entertaining the possibility of the double. We almost got spoiled with this race in Doha. But I don’t blame Lyles for just focusing on the 200m in 2019. He’d never won a global title before and it’s certainly more manageable to enter a championship with just one individual race on your plate. 

Now that he’s done it, the next logical step is adding in the 100m. He told me in Doha that the double is on for 2020. The best part of Coleman/Lyles 2020 is that both still look like they have another level to go up.

Having each other will certainly accelerate their progression.

2. Dalilah Muhammad/Sydney McLaughlin chasing the 400m hurdles world record again...

Lincoln:

Speaking of progression accelerated by competition, Dalilah Muhammad and Sydney McLaughlin were beneficiaries of each other's greatness in 2019. The 20-year-old McLaughlin certainly doesn't run 52.23 without Muhammad breaking her own world record in Doha. There's ample reason to expect more of the same this season, especially as Sydney has year one as a pro under her belt. Last year, the rookie beat up on Muhammad in the Diamond League but fell short of the veteran in championship races. This year, I see McLaughlin assuming full control of the throne. Do you view it that way? And do one or both women crack 52 seconds?

Kevin: 

Does McLaughlin have a better shot at gold than she did in 2019? Yes. "Full control of the throne"? No. I think Muhammad is still the favorite for Tokyo. There's every reason to believe she's still in her prime and her big race ability is without equal. Her coach thinks she can break 52 seconds and based on what she did in 2019, I give more credence to that than typical optimistic coachspeak. McLaughlin is also capable of sub 52 seconds so I expect it to be very close whenever they race.

3. Can Benjamin or Samba stop Warholm in the men's 400m hurdles?

Kevin: 

Let's talk about men's 400m hurdles which is again at the top of the list of must-see events for the Olympic year. Can Karsten Warholm get his third gold in-a-row? How will Rai Benjamin and Abderrahman Samba respond? Does Kevin Young's world record possibly hold on for another season?

Lincoln:

It's easy right now to pick Warholm to win gold in Tokyo coming off an undefeated season in 2019. He's the second-fastest man of all time (46.92) and at just 23, he should still be improving. 

But as great as he was last year, he also benefited from Benjamin injuring himself in practice before Worlds and Samba dealing with ailments of his own throughout most of 2019. Does Warholm win gold in Doha even if his rivals are completely healthy? Perhaps. But assuming 100-percent health for Benjamin and Samba in 2020, things should get a lot more interesting. 

As far as the 46.78 world record, I actually think it survives for another year. Remember, Benjamin and Warholm didn't race each other until the Diamond League final in 2019, and if they avoid each other again like that then they may have just a couple shots at running really fast. And as Doha showed, a quick time isn't guaranteed even when the stakes are high.

Kevin:

True, but all of these men have proven capable of running fast by themselves. It wouldn't surprise me if the record goes in a random pre-Olympic Diamond League meet with only one of them on the start line. Of course I'm hoping for all three to race each other as much as humanly possible.

4. On Lincoln's bold prediction that Eliud Kipchoge will lose in London...

Kevin:

Looking at the longer distance (the longest distance to be exact), I'd like to talk about one of your bold predictions for 2020. That is, that you think the invincible Eliud Kipchoge will lose a race in 2020. Someone losing a marathon shouldn't be a bold prediction given the unpredictability of the race and the success of choosing the "field" over a single individual, but Kipchoge is Kipchoge and it is hard to imagine him crossing the line in second place. Do explain your thinking on his impending defeat...

Lincoln:

I'll admit I stretched "bold" to the full extent of the word by picking against Kipchoge, particularly after the year he just had. But I do have to wonder if the 1:59:40 took a lot out of him in the long run, both mentally and physically. What is he still working towards now other than just staying on top? Is that enough to keep him motivated in what will be his 19th year of professional running? 

I know we say this every year, but he eventually has to stop improving each season. Age will catch up to him even if there are no signs right now to prove it. Now in saying Kipchoge will lose a race this year, I obviously have to name who I think will do it. Saying it will be Kenenisa Bekele contradicts everything I just said about age in relation to Kipchoge. But Bekele's 2:01:41 in Berlin suggests the 5k/10k world record holder has entered the Kenyan's orbit. And contrary to Kipchoge, he still has something to prove in the marathon. Bekele hasn’t committed to London just yet, but that’s the most likely outcome. I think he beats Kipchoge there [ducks].

Kevin:

I think he makes it through 2020 unscathed, but I'll be a contrarian and say that if he does lose it will be at the Olympics, not in London. Olympic marathons are weird. The weather is always crazy. There are no pacers. This one isn't even being run in the host city. Kipchoge has London pretty well mastered at this point and Bekele is too inconsistent to take down the guy who has been impervious to the volatility of the marathon.

5. What's next for Brigid Kosgei after her 2:14 in Chicago?

Lincoln:

Now that I’ve dug my grave with this Kipchoge take, why don’t you give me your version of the women’s marathon in 2020. Is Brigid Kosgei really as superior to everyone else as her 2:14 would suggest?

Kevin:

I think Kosgei has a bigger cushion on the event than Kipchoge does. That feels strange to type, but her margin of victory in London was sizable and then there was, of course, Chicago. Like Kipchoge, I'd be a little concerned in a championship-style marathon like the Olympics. London though feels like a no-brainer. 2:14 is hard to replicate, but she can run two minutes slower and still dominate the rest of the world.

6. What's the outcome for Nike's controversial VaporFly shoe and its even more criticized brethren, the AlphaFly?

Lincoln:

While we're here on the marathon, my mind logically drifts to the VaporFly discussion. It would seem that whatever outcome befalls the shoe-- whether the AlphaFly will be banned by World Athletics or the shoe permitted and therefore more outrage-- this controversy is here to stay. 

Like me, I think you're more in the middle of this argument than drifting to one side, but I'm curious what you think will happen here. I tend to believe World Athletics won't ban a shoe that just carried their 2019 athlete of the year to a 1:59:40 marathon, but perhaps their motivations don't align with a star athlete and his brand and instead with the wider sport as a whole. I just don't see it.

Kevin:

The easiest thing to do would be to codify regulations on stack height that keep the Next%, but don't allow the AlphaFly. I don't believe anyone has raced in the Alphas outside of Kipchoge's 1:59:40 (shoe truthers can feel free to correct me). That record doesn't count anyway because of all the other irregularities of the attempt so it wouldn't be too detrimental to now say the shoes fall outside the acceptable boundaries. 

Banning the Next% would be a bit bolder since existing world records were set in the shoes and it appears that other shoe companies have already launched or are in the process of rolling out shoes with similar technology. My stance on this has been the following: make the stack height requirements the exact height to where we never need to talk about shoes again (unless it's Conseslus Kipruto running without one, or Kipchoge's soles rebelling against him mid-marathon). Those are the fun shoe stories I want--let's bring those back and leave the Pebax foam takes in the previous decade.

7. Alberto Salazar's appeal and how it will affect track and field in 2020...

Kevin:

You've brought up one of the inevitable controversies of the new year. Any others you see on the horizon for 2020? 

Lincoln:

It's hard to imagine 2020 being more controversial than 2019 with Caster Semenya, Alberto Salazar, VaporFlys, Diamond League cuts, the Coleman case, etc. all happening this past year. But track and field always finds a way to one up itself in this department, and I could see Salazar's anti-doping appeal causing more uproar in a story that affects past and present players in the sport. 

Mary Cain's allegations, and the subsequent affirmation by other former NOP athletes, added another layer to what appears to have been a very toxic culture under Salazar. Nike's support of Salazar, and NOP basically just re-branding under Pete Julian, suggests that the hard look in the mirror than many wanted Nike and the former group to have in the wake of this hasn't taken place. Maybe it will once Salazar's appeal wraps up, but I don't see this controversy disappearing from the sport anytime soon.

Kevin:

Yep, I don't think anyone is excited about the resolution of the Salazar case, but it will undoubtedly be one of the biggest stories of 2020.

8. Can the American men break Jamaica's 4x100m world record?

Kevin:

Let's take a sharp turn and go back to two people we discussed at the beginning--Christian Coleman and Noah Lyles. They will be a key part of one of my bold predictions for the new year. I think the US men will break the world record (36.84) in the 4x100m. What are the odds that they can take one of Usain Bolt's records?

Lincoln:

While I'm hesitant to automatically hand the Americans the 4x1 world record after just one successful relay among a history of collapses, I do think Coleman-Gatlin-Rodgers-Lyles can eclipse 36.84 in 2020. Sharpening up handoffs is never a guarantee for Team USA, but I think it's a reasonable expectation now that the quartet has won gold together in Doha. With 37.10 as a starting point in year one, I can easily see them cutting off a quarter-second, especially as Lyles and Coleman continue to improve. I'll go with 60-percent odds.

Kevin:

With the Jamaican men still in rebuild mode, there's no other country with the horsepower of the United States. I think that actually helps their chances at the record. Less competition means they don't need to be perfect to get gold. Contrary as it may sound, I think a fast time can come from that.

9. Other potential world records...

Lincoln:

Do you have another world record, aside from the low hurdles that we previously discussed, that you think will fall in 2020?

Kevin:

Other record possibilities (in no particular order):

-Women's steeplechase

-Both high hurdles

-Men's 400m

-Men's pole vault

-Men's and women's triple jump

-Men's and women's marathon

-Men's shot put

-Women's 1500m

Lincoln:

The women's 1500m going down feels inevitable after what Sifan Hassan did in Doha. I know that she will have a different coach in 2020, but word is that she will be under Pete Julian's tutelage in Portland so I don't imagine her routine will change too much. And if she can run 3:51.95 in a championship setting-- after winning the 10,000m a week prior-- I have tremendous confidence in her breaking 3:50 in a one-off race.

What do you think Hassan's 2020 will hold? The Olympic schedule is playing her no favors this year, as the 1500m and 10,000m finals are on consecutive days and the 1500m first round and 5,000m final both take place on Aug. 3. What double will the Dutch star tackle this season?

Kevin:

Is one day enough recovery for her to re-create the Sifan-athon 1500m/10,000m double? Probably. She's the best in the world at those distances by a wide margin and Doha proved that she has a good margin for error. But, I could see her not risking it and going for the more traditional 5000m/10,000m attempt. Two golds, is two golds, after all. 

Side note, I'm still upset that the powers at be can't make the 1500m/5000m double possible for the women. At least the women's 200/400m is somewhat doable this year (first round of the 400m is the morning of the 200m final). 

10. Which potential Tokyo double is most intriguing?

Kevin:

Other than Hassan, Lyles, Coleman and potentially Shaunae Miller-Uibo, what other doubles are you interested in seeing?

Lincoln:

As you reminded me earlier this week, 'tis the season for rumors of "x athlete is doubling in Tokyo!" Reality is often much more subdued than offseason ambitions, but I'm holding out hope that Michael Norman gives the 200m/400m double a go in Tokyo. So much depends on his health, and with how 2019 ended for him I could see Norman playing it cautious and just running the four. But... he freaking beat Noah Lyles in the 200m last year! 19.70/43.45 PBs absolutely beg for him to run both, especially in an Olympic year. If he's healthy, he should take advantage of it by going all-in.

Click here for Part II...