Olympic Preview: Men's Sprints
Aug 11, 2016
Three of the very best finals of the entire Olympics in any sport are the men's 100m, 200m and 400m. The 400m and 100m finals are Sunday, August 14, at 9:00 PM and 9:25 PM, and the 200m final is Thursday, August 18 at 9:30 PM. All times listed are Eastern.
100m
Last three podiums
2015 Worlds: Usain Bolt, Justin Gatlin, Travyon Bromell/Andre De Grasse2013 Worlds: Usain Bolt, Justin Gatlin, Nesta Carter
2012 Olympics: Usain Bolt, Yohan Blake, Justin Gatlin
Team USA with 2016 wind-legal season bests
Justin Gatlin (9.80), Trayvon Bromell (9.84), Marvin Bracy (9.94)2016 world leaders
Justin Gatlin, Trayvon Bromell, Jimmy Vicaut (9.86)Can Bolt be beaten?
Gatlin has been progressively closing the gap on the GOAT. He lost to Bolt by 0.14 in the 2012 Olympic final, 0.08 at the 2013 World Championships, and 0.01 last year. The salient questions are: Did Gatlin get as close as he ever could last year? And with Bolt's allegedly balky hamstring, can a maybe-slightly-past-his-apex Gatlin beat him anyway?Until Bolt loses at a major championship, he has to be treated as the favorite. There's a reason no sportsbook has Bolt at odds longer than 8/13.
Gatlin isn't coming into this race as scorching-hot as last year. He broke 9.80 four times before Worlds in 2015 before running 9.80 behind Bolt's 9.79 in final. But his 9.80 season best is still the 2016 world leader. And that 9.79 from Bolt is the only time he's gone under 9.80 since the 2012 Olympics. If 9.79 is the fastest that Bolt is capable of running in this race, then Gatlin has a real shot.
Of course, 9.79 is the fastest that Bolt was capable of running last year. And Gatlin pissed the race away in the last 15 meters. Bolt isn't just the undisputed GOAT because he's the fastest man ever. He also has, without fail for eight straight years now, run his best when it counts the most. There is nothing else like it in sports. We'll see on Sunday night if Bolt can extend that streak to an unprecedented third straight Olympic gold medal in the 100m.
What about the other Americans?
Bromell is the second-fastest man in the world this year, and tied for third at Worlds last year. He's probably the best non-Bolt/Gatlin man in the field, and deserving of his 6/4 odds to medal. But good luck averting your eyes from Bolt and Gatlin in this race.200m
Last three podiums
2015 Worlds: Usain Bolt, Justin Gatlin, Anaso Jobodwana2013 Worlds: Usain Bolt, Warren Weir, Curtis Mitchell
2012 Olympics: Usain Bolt, Yohan Blake, Warren Weir
Team USA with 2016 wind-legal season bests / 2016 world leaders
LaShawn Merritt (19.74), Justin Gatlin (19.75), Ameer Webb (19.85)WIN 200m
— U.S. Olympic Team (@TeamUSA) July 10, 2016
QUALIFY for #Rio2016
Bust a move @justingatlin, @lashawnmerritt, & @Fastlikewebb are RIO BOUND! https://t.co/zBoQSgqxJ2
Can Bolt be beaten?
It's impossible to predict this race without seeing how Gatlin, Merritt, and Bolt look in their finals on Sunday night. But if they race to form, it will set the stage for an epic 200m final on Thursday night. The best long and short sprinters in the world--and maybe in history--meeting in the middle? That's a sprint fan's dream scenario, and a sports-blog argument brought to life.Sub-20 man Wayde van Niekerk is not entered, but Bolt, Gatlin, and Merritt meeting in the middle after conquering their respective disciplines would be more than enough. Bolt said earlier this week that the 200m makes him "more nervous" than the 100m, but his 200m wins have historically been even bigger cakewalks than his 100m wins. If he beats Gatlin in sub-9.80 in the 100m, it's hard to imagine anyone beating him in the 200m--especially considering Gatlin beat Merritt at the Olympic Trials.
400m
Last three podiums
2015 Worlds: Wayde van Niekerk, LaShawn Merritt, Kirani James2013 Worlds: LaShawn Merritt, Tony McQuay, Luguelin Santos
2012 Olympics: Kirani James, Luguelin Santos, Lalonde Gordon
Team USA with 2016 season bests
LaShawn Merritt (43.97), Gil Roberts (44.67), David Verburg (44.82)2016 world leaders
LaShawn Merritt, Kirani James (44.08), Wayde van Niekerk (44.11)Who's gonna win this race?
Uh, it's unclear. van Niekerk, Merritt, and James went 1-2-3 in a historically fast race last year at Worlds. van Niekerk and Merritt's times there made them the fourth- and sixth-fastest performers ever, and James was already the eighth-fastest performer ever. Michael Johnson's 43.18 world record is in real danger, as van Niekerk's 43.48 in Beijing last summer is the fastest time of the last nine years..@LaShawnMerritt sets the WORLDS FASTEST TIME in the 400m final!
— U.S. Olympic Team (@TeamUSA) July 4, 2016
What an unbelievable race! #TrackTown16 https://t.co/dIqSAaKYiT
You can make a case for any of the three. van Niekerk hasn't lost in 2016, has the fastest PR, and is the most versatile sprinter in history at sub-10.00, sub-20.00, and sub-44.00. Merritt is the fastest man in the world this year. And James beat Merritt at the Prefontaine Classic and Drake Relays.
