2013 Boston Marathon & B.A.A. 5k/Invitational Road MileApr 13, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
PREVIEW: Seriously Though, Can Flanagan Win Boston?
PREVIEW: Seriously Though, Can Flanagan Win Boston?
There’s a lot of things I dislike about Boston. This includes, but definitely isn’t limited to, the Red Sox, the public transportation, the Red Sox, and Curt Schilling’s bloody sock.
As a born and raised New Yorker, I was indoctrinated at a young age to hate our up-the-coast city rival. This Orwellian past has shaped my mind where even the slightest mention of something about the city brings me instantaneous displeasure. Dr. Ivan Pavlov would be proud.
But there is one thing that I have a love, or rather a love-hate for: the marathon. The upcoming Boston Marathon reminds me of everything I loathe about both the city and the sport, but for some inexplicable reason, I always come crawling back.
Why? Because there’s always that slight chance that I’ll see an American break the tape.
This sentiment is not uncommon in sports. Brian Phillips over at Grantland explained his infatuation with soccer by writing, "Following soccer is like being in love with someone who's (a) gorgeous, (b) fascinating, (c) possibly quite evil, and (d) only occasionally aware of your existence. There's a continuous low-grade suffering that becomes a sort of addiction in its own right. You spend all your time hoping they'll notice you, and they never do, and that unfulfilled hope feels like your only connection to them. And then one day they look your way, and it's just, pow."
Replace “soccer” with “the marathon” and it hits too close to home. But I’m not yet in love with the Boston Marathon... there’s one person who can change that.
That person is Shalane Flanagan.
Flanagan enters Boston as the American with the best shot of winning not because of her marathon credentials (she’s the ninth fastest on paper), but because of her peripheral seasonal marks and outspoken (it’s about time) goals for Monday.
She wants to win. Want to know why? You can read it here, here, here, here, here, here here, or here. There’s a lot of good background info in all of the pieces, such as being the hometown hero or working with Gatorade to improve her nutrition. If you have a moment, take a read.
So rather than explain the story of why she wants to win, we’ll try and figure out if she can win.
What Is, What Was, and What’s Next for Flanagan
Her recent buildup with coach Jerry Schumacher has yielded some impressive results in other distances. In the last two months, she’s picked up one U.S. title, one personal best, and one IAAF “A” standard. The races I’m referring to are the U.S. XC Championships on February 2nd (25:49), a second place finish to Ethiopia’s Meseret Defar at the New Orleans Half on February 24th (68:31), and a solo effort in the Stanford Invitational 10,000 where she ran a calm 31:04.85.
Although her run in Palo Alto, CA was nowhere near her personal best of 30:22.22 from the 2008 Olympic 10k, her effort from both Stanford and New Orleans leaves much to the imagination.
After the half-marathon, Flanagan told Runner’s World, “The time is nice and it’s always nice to PR at this age,” Flanagan says. “But it’s more than what the time says. When I ran my previous PR, it was like an all-out sprint effort. I felt miserable. I almost wanted to step off the course.”
If that doesn’t make her coach smile, then there’s her effort in the Stanford 10k. Even though it wasn’t a PR, her wire-to-wire run was more of a tempo run than a race.
Schumacher also told Runner’s World, “The 10-K was basically a five-mile tempo and then she squeezed it a little the last mile to simulate the feeling at the end of a race,”
Let’s say that Schumacher enlisted a rabbit and had Flanagan run all-out in that 10k? Presumably, she could have run 30:30 to 30:40, maybe even faster. If that happened, would we be having the same conversation about her chances?
To derive Flanagan’s odds for a win in Boston, we’ll use her races at 8k, 21.1k, and 10k to figure out what she’ll run for 42.2k.
That means it's time to whip out the ol’ conversion calculators. The first guided guess came from McMillan’s Calculator, which said that the marathon equivalent to a 31:04 10k is 2:25:45.
I’ll side with the guys at Letsrun and agree that the conversion charts aren’t that accurate. Even the other calculator we used, Jack Daniels’ VDOT, had her marathon equivalent is 2:23:10. We like this one a bit more because it’s semi-linear, which means that her predicted time for the half should match up with what she actually ran in New Orleans. The predicted time reads 68:21; she ran 68:31. Not too shabby.
There are two caveats.
1) The half and 10k weren’t all out efforts, so the correlated time is underestimated.
2) 2:23:10 would be silly fast for the Boston course.
Below are the top ten female performances at Boston. Desi Davila’s 2:22:38 from ’11 is the women’s American record for the course and ranks #5 all-time.
Women's Top 10 All-Time Boston Performances
Courtesy of johnhancock.com
Davila’s AR is impressive in its own right, but ’11 was the “year of the tailwind” where everyone ran fast. We then looked up the time for the next fastest American, Joan Benoit-Samuelson. A year before she won the Olympic marathon gold medal in ’84, Benoit-Samuelson won Boston in a blazing 2:22:43.
Another two quick takeaways. We all know that she’s fearless, but her first half at the ’83 Boston Marathon was absolutely insane. Her road 10k and half-marathon personal bests was from that race and yes, they were en route. Below are the course record checkpoints for the women’s Boston marathon.
We expect Flanagan to have a bit more conservative approach than Benoit-Samuelson’s, but what about her credentials leading up to the big race?
According to all-athletics.com, Benoit-Samuelson ran three indoor personal bests during her buildup for Boston. On January 8th, she ran 15:50.34 for 5000m in Hanover; on February 6th, she ran 4:36:48 for the mile in Boston; and on February 6th, she ran 8:53.55 for 3000m in East Rutherford.
We’re not sure of her efforts for any of those races, but Flanagan did run a conservative 31:04.85 and split 15:36 at 5000m at the halfway mark. Probably more conservative than Benoit-Samuelson's run, but definitely a lot faster. The question is whether her race strategy is more guided towards competitng or running fast. In any case, it’s hard to keep a caged animal tame.
Pre-Determined Fate or What Can Everyone Else Run?
We’re sure that Flanagan is ready to pop a big one, but what about the rest of the field? Will there be someone that sits behind Flanagan calm as a Hindu cow before definitively taking the lead and blowing away the rest of the field?
Let’s look at the rest of the field’s past and present buildups.
The “rest of the field” includes Ethiopia’s Meseret Hailu Debele, Tirfi Tsegaye Beyene, Mamitu Daska, Kenya’s Rita Jeptoo Sitienei, and Sharon Jemuati Cherop. These five, who possess the top five best marathon PRs in the field, are the ones that could prolong my love affair with Boston and the marathon.
To guess what they'll run on Monday, we examined their buildups this year compared to their buildups from 2012. Below, we’ve listed the race(s) that each of the six woman ran in preparation for their marathon(s) in 2012.
Shalane Flanagan (PB: 2:25:38; U.S. Trials, 2012) CR
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
2013 Boston Prep
Points of Interest
Unlike her previous buildup, she’s run faster in the half and 10k while exerting much less effort. Unlike her previous marathon, she hopes the final result is much different. Flanagan told Boston.com, “Sometimes a little bit less is more, and so that's what I feel like I've done with this Boston preparation, just scale back, give 95 percent in my training and hope that last five percent is my competitive nature and just my talents. Hopefully I'm a little undercooked as opposed to overcooked for London.”
Meseret Hailu Debele (PB: 2:21.09; Amsterdam, 2012) CR
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
2013 Boston Prep
Points of Interest
Hailu is coming off a huge run at the ultra-fast RAK Half-Marathon (66:56 is no joke). She’s also the 2012 Half-Marathon World Champion. Trouble with a capital ‘T’ and that’s not because this sentence is grammatically correct.
Tirfi Tsegaye Beyenen (PB: 2:21:19; Berlin, 2012)
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
2013 Boston Prep
Points of Interest
We couldn’t find any buildup races for Tsegaye other than her marathon in Dubai. Then again, she didn’t run any significant races before running her marathon PR in Berlin.
Mamitu Daska (PB: 2:21:59; Frankfurt, 2011)
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
2013 Boston Prep
Points of Interest
We saw Daska back in January at the beautiful Houston Half-Marathon (just kidding: It was awful). Her winning mark from Houston isn’t indicative of what she was capable of running as the rain pretty much ruined everyone’s day. It also produced one of my favorite tweets of the day from Jon Gugula:
Rita Jeptoo Sitienei (PB: 2:22:04; Chicago, 2012)
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
2013 Boston Prep
Points of Interest
Jeptoo is arguably Flanagan’s biggest threat. Although she enters Boston with the fourth fastest marathon PR, her 66:26 half-marathon (also from RAK) ranks her as the fifth / sixth fastest of all-time (Note: We couldn’t find a complete all-time women’s half-marathon table). Last year, she took 6th in Boston with a so-so half-marathon a few weeks prior. Watch out for her.
Sharon Jemuati Cherop (PB: 2:22:39; Dubai, 2012)
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
2013 Boston Prep
Points of Interest
Cherop didn’t have the same success at the RAK Half as the other two favorites, but a 2:22:39 PR from last year and a World Championship bronze medal in the marathon make for a serious combination.
The Question Unasked: Can Kara Win?
All of the pre-race talk is about Flanagan. Can she end the American drought? Can she become the hometown hero? What color underwear is she going to wear?
The talk has to be a bit overwhelming for her BFFF (the next step in friendship), Kara Goucher. In the recent weeks, it seems like the two have been inseparable. They train together. They do photo-shoots together. They do interviews together. They’re... friends?
They’re a dynamic duo, but their pre-Boston attention isn’t the same. Flanagan has had an impressive buildup and is the “favorite;” Goucher has struggled a bit, but has made it to Boston in one piece.
Compared to the ’09 press conference, it’s a much different atmosphere for Goucher. Back then, she was the American that everyone thought could win. Now, she the favorite's training partner and friend.
A lot of talk is about their relationship or Goucher’s third trip to Boston, but did anyone ask her if she could win?
No. What did she say when we asked? "I do."
It’s an outside shot, but she knows the course and is always a fierce competitor. Crazier things have happened.
Random Pop Culture Reference
When trying to explain the Kara-Shalane #Frivalry and the fact that no one has asked Goucher if she can win, I immediately thought of this piece of cinema history (it's from Mean Girls, by the way). A bit extreme, but it kind of works.
Also:
Seriously Though, Can Flanagan Win?
All of the statistics, personal pieces, and pre-race buzz boil down to one not-so-simple question: Can Flanagan win Boston?
Our instinct says no: it’ll be Rita Jeptoo Sitienei.
Our biased heart says yes.
Here in Boston, there’s an incredible amount of unbound support for Flanagan. But the outpouring love isn't just from Boston, it's coming from everywhere. Everyone really wants it.
Flanagan is a gamer who’s learned a lot from her previous marathons. Race strategy, nutrition, and patience have all been honed over the last few years and can culminate in a perfect race in Beantown.
A win here would help my love affair with the city and the race. Time and time again, there’s an American hopeful who falls short. There’s the surprise top five placing or maybe a podium finish that brings excitement and hope to American marathoning.
But I want a win, damn it. It’s an unfair obsession to want great (not good) when I’m not even competing, but I want it. Paraphrasing a great interview from Fernando Cabada, I don’t want a “top American” label; I want the “winner” one.
It all started back in ’09, when Meb Keflezighi won the NYC Marathon. Between then and now, there have been some who have close oh-so-close, especially in Boston.
The last time an American won here was Lisa Rainsberger in ’85. It may happen on Monday.
As a born and raised New Yorker, I was indoctrinated at a young age to hate our up-the-coast city rival. This Orwellian past has shaped my mind where even the slightest mention of something about the city brings me instantaneous displeasure. Dr. Ivan Pavlov would be proud.
But there is one thing that I have a love, or rather a love-hate for: the marathon. The upcoming Boston Marathon reminds me of everything I loathe about both the city and the sport, but for some inexplicable reason, I always come crawling back.
Why? Because there’s always that slight chance that I’ll see an American break the tape.
This sentiment is not uncommon in sports. Brian Phillips over at Grantland explained his infatuation with soccer by writing, "Following soccer is like being in love with someone who's (a) gorgeous, (b) fascinating, (c) possibly quite evil, and (d) only occasionally aware of your existence. There's a continuous low-grade suffering that becomes a sort of addiction in its own right. You spend all your time hoping they'll notice you, and they never do, and that unfulfilled hope feels like your only connection to them. And then one day they look your way, and it's just, pow."
Replace “soccer” with “the marathon” and it hits too close to home. But I’m not yet in love with the Boston Marathon... there’s one person who can change that.
That person is Shalane Flanagan.
Flanagan enters Boston as the American with the best shot of winning not because of her marathon credentials (she’s the ninth fastest on paper), but because of her peripheral seasonal marks and outspoken (it’s about time) goals for Monday.
She wants to win. Want to know why? You can read it here, here, here, here, here, here here, or here. There’s a lot of good background info in all of the pieces, such as being the hometown hero or working with Gatorade to improve her nutrition. If you have a moment, take a read.
So rather than explain the story of why she wants to win, we’ll try and figure out if she can win.
What Is, What Was, and What’s Next for Flanagan
Her recent buildup with coach Jerry Schumacher has yielded some impressive results in other distances. In the last two months, she’s picked up one U.S. title, one personal best, and one IAAF “A” standard. The races I’m referring to are the U.S. XC Championships on February 2nd (25:49), a second place finish to Ethiopia’s Meseret Defar at the New Orleans Half on February 24th (68:31), and a solo effort in the Stanford Invitational 10,000 where she ran a calm 31:04.85.
Although her run in Palo Alto, CA was nowhere near her personal best of 30:22.22 from the 2008 Olympic 10k, her effort from both Stanford and New Orleans leaves much to the imagination.
After the half-marathon, Flanagan told Runner’s World, “The time is nice and it’s always nice to PR at this age,” Flanagan says. “But it’s more than what the time says. When I ran my previous PR, it was like an all-out sprint effort. I felt miserable. I almost wanted to step off the course.”
If that doesn’t make her coach smile, then there’s her effort in the Stanford 10k. Even though it wasn’t a PR, her wire-to-wire run was more of a tempo run than a race.
Schumacher also told Runner’s World, “The 10-K was basically a five-mile tempo and then she squeezed it a little the last mile to simulate the feeling at the end of a race,”
Let’s say that Schumacher enlisted a rabbit and had Flanagan run all-out in that 10k? Presumably, she could have run 30:30 to 30:40, maybe even faster. If that happened, would we be having the same conversation about her chances?
To derive Flanagan’s odds for a win in Boston, we’ll use her races at 8k, 21.1k, and 10k to figure out what she’ll run for 42.2k.
That means it's time to whip out the ol’ conversion calculators. The first guided guess came from McMillan’s Calculator, which said that the marathon equivalent to a 31:04 10k is 2:25:45.
I’ll side with the guys at Letsrun and agree that the conversion charts aren’t that accurate. Even the other calculator we used, Jack Daniels’ VDOT, had her marathon equivalent is 2:23:10. We like this one a bit more because it’s semi-linear, which means that her predicted time for the half should match up with what she actually ran in New Orleans. The predicted time reads 68:21; she ran 68:31. Not too shabby.
There are two caveats.
1) The half and 10k weren’t all out efforts, so the correlated time is underestimated.
2) 2:23:10 would be silly fast for the Boston course.
Below are the top ten female performances at Boston. Desi Davila’s 2:22:38 from ’11 is the women’s American record for the course and ranks #5 all-time.
Women's Top 10 All-Time Boston Performances
Courtesy of johnhancock.com
|
Rank |
Time |
Name |
Country |
Place |
Year |
|
1 |
2:20:43 |
Margaret Okayo |
Kenya |
1 |
2002 |
|
2 |
2:21:12 |
Catherine Ndereba |
Kenya |
2 |
2002 |
|
3 |
2:21:45 |
Uta Pippig |
Germany |
1 |
1994 |
|
4 |
2:22:36 |
Caroline Kilel |
Kenya |
1 |
2011 |
|
5 |
2:22:38 |
Desiree Davila |
USA |
2 |
2011 |
|
6 |
2:22:42 |
Sharon Cherop |
Kenya |
3 |
2011 |
|
7 |
2:22:43 |
Joan Benoit-Samuelson |
USA |
1 |
1983 |
|
8 |
2:23:21 |
Fatuma Roba |
Ethiopia |
1 |
1998 |
|
9 |
2:23:25 |
Fatuma Roba |
Ethiopia |
1 |
1999 |
|
10 |
2:23:33 |
Valentina Yegorova |
Russia |
2 |
1994 |
Davila’s AR is impressive in its own right, but ’11 was the “year of the tailwind” where everyone ran fast. We then looked up the time for the next fastest American, Joan Benoit-Samuelson. A year before she won the Olympic marathon gold medal in ’84, Benoit-Samuelson won Boston in a blazing 2:22:43.
Another two quick takeaways. We all know that she’s fearless, but her first half at the ’83 Boston Marathon was absolutely insane. Her road 10k and half-marathon personal bests was from that race and yes, they were en route. Below are the course record checkpoints for the women’s Boston marathon.
|
Location |
Okayo's CR Splits |
Place |
Record |
Holder |
|
5 kilometers |
17:03 |
In Lead Pack |
15:49* |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
5 miles |
27:13 |
In Lead Pack |
25:35 |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
10 kilometers |
33:43 |
In Lead Pack |
32:00* |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
| 15 kilometers |
50:24 |
In Lead Pack |
48:08* |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
10 miles |
53:59 |
In Lead Pack |
51:38 |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
20 kilometers |
1:07:06 |
In Lead Pack |
1:04:49* |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
13.1 kilometers |
1:10:43 |
In Lead Pack |
1:08:22 |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
15 miles |
1:20:45 |
2nd |
1:18:56 |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
25 kilometers |
1:23:32 |
2nd |
1:21:34* |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
30 kilometers |
1:40:16 |
1st |
1:38:05* |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
20 miles |
1:47:30 |
1st |
1:46:44 |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
35 kilometers |
1:57:10 |
1st |
1:56:08 |
Benoit-Samuelson ('83) |
|
40 kilometers |
2:13:39 |
1st |
2:14:18 |
Uta Pippig ('94) |
|
25 miles |
2:14:22 |
1st |
2:15:10 |
Uta Pippig ('94) |
|
Finish |
2:20:43 |
1st |
2:21:45 |
Uta Pippig ('94) |
|
* An estimate |
|
|
|
|
We expect Flanagan to have a bit more conservative approach than Benoit-Samuelson’s, but what about her credentials leading up to the big race?
According to all-athletics.com, Benoit-Samuelson ran three indoor personal bests during her buildup for Boston. On January 8th, she ran 15:50.34 for 5000m in Hanover; on February 6th, she ran 4:36:48 for the mile in Boston; and on February 6th, she ran 8:53.55 for 3000m in East Rutherford.
We’re not sure of her efforts for any of those races, but Flanagan did run a conservative 31:04.85 and split 15:36 at 5000m at the halfway mark. Probably more conservative than Benoit-Samuelson's run, but definitely a lot faster. The question is whether her race strategy is more guided towards competitng or running fast. In any case, it’s hard to keep a caged animal tame.
I have a love/hate relationship with marathon tapers. Feeling like a caged animal. I'm ready to get this show on the road.
— Shalane Flanagan (@ShalaneFlanagan) March 27, 2013
Pre-Determined Fate or What Can Everyone Else Run?
We’re sure that Flanagan is ready to pop a big one, but what about the rest of the field? Will there be someone that sits behind Flanagan calm as a Hindu cow before definitively taking the lead and blowing away the rest of the field?
Let’s look at the rest of the field’s past and present buildups.
The “rest of the field” includes Ethiopia’s Meseret Hailu Debele, Tirfi Tsegaye Beyene, Mamitu Daska, Kenya’s Rita Jeptoo Sitienei, and Sharon Jemuati Cherop. These five, who possess the top five best marathon PRs in the field, are the ones that could prolong my love affair with Boston and the marathon.
To guess what they'll run on Monday, we examined their buildups this year compared to their buildups from 2012. Below, we’ve listed the race(s) that each of the six woman ran in preparation for their marathon(s) in 2012.
Shalane Flanagan (PB: 2:25:38; U.S. Trials, 2012) CR
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
|
Time |
Race |
Date |
Place |
Time |
Race |
Date |
Place |
| 70:49 | San Antonio | 10/13/11 | 1st |
|
|
|
|
| 69:58 | Dodge | 12/11/11 | 1st | 2:25:38 PB | Oly Trials | 1/14/12 | 1st |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 68:52 | Lisboa | 3/25/12 | 1st |
|
|
|
|
| 31:59.68 |
Oly Trials 10k |
6/22/12 | 3rd | 2:25:51 | Olympics | 8/5/12 | 10th |
2013 Boston Prep
|
Time |
Race |
Date |
Place |
|
68:31 |
Mardi Gras | 2/24/13 | 2nd |
Points of Interest
Unlike her previous buildup, she’s run faster in the half and 10k while exerting much less effort. Unlike her previous marathon, she hopes the final result is much different. Flanagan told Boston.com, “Sometimes a little bit less is more, and so that's what I feel like I've done with this Boston preparation, just scale back, give 95 percent in my training and hope that last five percent is my competitive nature and just my talents. Hopefully I'm a little undercooked as opposed to overcooked for London.”
Meseret Hailu Debele (PB: 2:21.09; Amsterdam, 2012) CR
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
| Time | Race | Date | Place | Time | Race | Date | Place |
| 68:55 | Kavarna | 10/6/12 | 1st | 2:21:09 PB | Amsterdam | 10/21/12 | 1st |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 71:18 | Egmond Aan Zee | 1/8/12 | 1st | 2:27:15 | Praha | 5/13/12 | 3rd |
2013 Boston Prep
| Time | Race | Date | Place |
| 66:56 | Ras Al Khaimah | 2/15/13 | 4th |
Points of Interest
Hailu is coming off a huge run at the ultra-fast RAK Half-Marathon (66:56 is no joke). She’s also the 2012 Half-Marathon World Champion. Trouble with a capital ‘T’ and that’s not because this sentence is grammatically correct.
Tirfi Tsegaye Beyenen (PB: 2:21:19; Berlin, 2012)
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Time | Race | Date | Place | Time | Race | Date | Place |
| 67:42 | Ostia | 2/26/12 | 3rd | 2:21.40 | Paris | 4/15/12 | 1st |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
N/A |
N/A | N/A | N/A | 2:21:19 PB | Berlin | 9/30/12 | 2nd |
2013 Boston Prep
| Time | Race | Date | Place |
| 2:23.23 | Stand Chart Dubai | 1/25/13 | 1st |
Points of Interest
We couldn’t find any buildup races for Tsegaye other than her marathon in Dubai. Then again, she didn’t run any significant races before running her marathon PR in Berlin.
Mamitu Daska (PB: 2:21:59; Frankfurt, 2011)
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
| Time | Race | Date | Place | Time | Race | Date | Place |
| 2:21:59 PB | Frankfurt | 10/30/11 | 1st | 2:24:24 | Standard Chart Dubai | 9th | 1/27/12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 32:22 | Journal-Con 10k | 7/4/12 | 1st |
|
|
|
|
| 49:26 | Boilermaker 15k | 7/8/12 | 1st | 2:23:62 | Frankfurt | 10/28/12 | 3rd |
2013 Boston Prep
| Time | Race | Place | Date |
| 69:53 | Houston | 1/13/13 | 1st |
Points of Interest
We saw Daska back in January at the beautiful Houston Half-Marathon (just kidding: It was awful). Her winning mark from Houston isn’t indicative of what she was capable of running as the rain pretty much ruined everyone’s day. It also produced one of my favorite tweets of the day from Jon Gugula:
Sit through just one press conference with East African distance runners: "How bad was the weather?" "The weather was very, very, very bad."
— Jon Gugala (@JonGugala) January 13, 2013
Rita Jeptoo Sitienei (PB: 2:22:04; Chicago, 2012)
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
|
Time |
Race |
Date |
Place |
Time |
Race |
Place |
Date |
| 31:58 | Cape Elizabeth 10k | 8/4/12 | 4th | 2:22:04 PB | Chicago | 10/7/12 | 2nd |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 70:50 | Lisboa | 3/25/12 | 6th | 2:25:53 | Boston | 4/16/12 | 6th |
2013 Boston Prep
|
Time |
Race |
Date |
Place |
| 66:26 | Ras Al Khaimah | 2/15/13 | 3rd |
Points of Interest
Jeptoo is arguably Flanagan’s biggest threat. Although she enters Boston with the fourth fastest marathon PR, her 66:26 half-marathon (also from RAK) ranks her as the fifth / sixth fastest of all-time (Note: We couldn’t find a complete all-time women’s half-marathon table). Last year, she took 6th in Boston with a so-so half-marathon a few weeks prior. Watch out for her.
Sharon Jemuati Cherop (PB: 2:22:39; Dubai, 2012)
2012 Buildup 2012 Marathon
|
Time |
Race |
Date |
Place |
Time |
Race |
Date |
Place |
| 27:26A | Nakuru XC 10k | 1/21/12 | 1st | 2:22:39 PB | Standard Chart Dubai | 1/27/12 | 7th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 67:21 | Philadelphia | 9/16/12 | 1st | 2:23:57 | Torino | 11/18/12 | 1st |
2013 Boston Prep
|
Time |
Race |
Date |
Place |
| 69:04 | Ras Al Khaimah | 2/15/13 | 11th |
Points of Interest
Cherop didn’t have the same success at the RAK Half as the other two favorites, but a 2:22:39 PR from last year and a World Championship bronze medal in the marathon make for a serious combination.
The Question Unasked: Can Kara Win?
All of the pre-race talk is about Flanagan. Can she end the American drought? Can she become the hometown hero? What color underwear is she going to wear?
The talk has to be a bit overwhelming for her BFFF (the next step in friendship), Kara Goucher. In the recent weeks, it seems like the two have been inseparable. They train together. They do photo-shoots together. They do interviews together. They’re... friends?
They’re a dynamic duo, but their pre-Boston attention isn’t the same. Flanagan has had an impressive buildup and is the “favorite;” Goucher has struggled a bit, but has made it to Boston in one piece.
Compared to the ’09 press conference, it’s a much different atmosphere for Goucher. Back then, she was the American that everyone thought could win. Now, she the favorite's training partner and friend.
A lot of talk is about their relationship or Goucher’s third trip to Boston, but did anyone ask her if she could win?
No. What did she say when we asked? "I do."
It’s an outside shot, but she knows the course and is always a fierce competitor. Crazier things have happened.
Random Pop Culture Reference
When trying to explain the Kara-Shalane #Frivalry and the fact that no one has asked Goucher if she can win, I immediately thought of this piece of cinema history (it's from Mean Girls, by the way). A bit extreme, but it kind of works.
Also:
No lie, I am this guy when I think about winning Boston. #itcouldhappen #keepthedreamalive twitter.com/karagoucher/st…
— Kara Goucher (@karagoucher) March 5, 2013
Seriously Though, Can Flanagan Win?
All of the statistics, personal pieces, and pre-race buzz boil down to one not-so-simple question: Can Flanagan win Boston?
Our instinct says no: it’ll be Rita Jeptoo Sitienei.
Our biased heart says yes.
Here in Boston, there’s an incredible amount of unbound support for Flanagan. But the outpouring love isn't just from Boston, it's coming from everywhere. Everyone really wants it.
Flanagan is a gamer who’s learned a lot from her previous marathons. Race strategy, nutrition, and patience have all been honed over the last few years and can culminate in a perfect race in Beantown.
A win here would help my love affair with the city and the race. Time and time again, there’s an American hopeful who falls short. There’s the surprise top five placing or maybe a podium finish that brings excitement and hope to American marathoning.
But I want a win, damn it. It’s an unfair obsession to want great (not good) when I’m not even competing, but I want it. Paraphrasing a great interview from Fernando Cabada, I don’t want a “top American” label; I want the “winner” one.
It all started back in ’09, when Meb Keflezighi won the NYC Marathon. Between then and now, there have been some who have close oh-so-close, especially in Boston.
The last time an American won here was Lisa Rainsberger in ’85. It may happen on Monday.
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