USA Outdoor Track & Field Championships 2013Jun 19, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
The Odd Man Out in the 10k: True, Derrick, Ritz, or Rupp?
The Odd Man Out in the 10k: True, Derrick, Ritz, or Rupp?
Four guys for three spots. One big name in American distance running will get a postcard in early August that’ll read, “From Russia with Love.”
Before Thursday night, we won’t try and figure out who will make the men’s 10k team for the IAAF World Championships, but who will be left out. Even during the car ride to airport where we bid adieu to Ryan Fenton, we couldn’t come to definitive conclusion.
Either Dathan Ritzenhein, Ben True, Chris Derrick, or Galen Rupp will leave Des Moines without a plane ticket to Moscow.
Since we’re a pragmatic group, we’ll let you decide who you choose:
If it hasn’t become obvious by now, those are the seasonal bests and 10k personal bests of Derrick, True, and Ritz (in that order). Who’s missing? Just the Olympic silver medalist, Galen Rupp.
Yes, we didn’t include him on the list of maybes. Yes, he hasn’t been able to replicate his incredible form from the winter. Yes, he should have some sense of urgency after Derrick and Ritz were were within a second of beating him at the Prefontaine Classic.
Despite the doubts, it’s safe to assume that Rupp will make it. It may seem weird that we need to add this qualifier after he just had the best season of his career, but crazier things have happened to Olympic silver medalists (read: Leo Manzano). Plus, the weather may play a pollen-mask-is-needed-role.
If Rupp doesn’t make the team, I will blend my hat with some ice cream, chocolate syrup, some Gummi Bears, and eat it.
So we’re down to three in this game of musical chairs (or if you’re a bit more morbid, Russian Roulette). Speaking of pragmatism, why don’t we just use this season’s results as our main guide to pick the odd the man out. That would be a convenient solution if not for the fact that their results are more tangled an NCAA men’s 1500m final (too soon?).
USA Cross Country Championships: Derrick (1st) > Ritz (2nd) > True (5th)
IAAF World Cross Championships: True (6th) > Derrick (10th)
Prefontaine Classic 5k: Derrick (7th) > Ritz (9th)
Their seasonal bests are too similar and head-to-head competition has been a toss-up. Even their 10k personal bests lead to to a dead-end because the two slowest, Derrick and True, are having career years.
To make matters worse, when they’ve run against the same competition, the results have been almost identical. As LetsRun points out, “In New York, True lost to [Ibrahim] Jeilan by 0.48. A week later at Pre, Ritz lost to him by 0.37.” I can’t believe even the transitive property failed us.
There is no obvious information to help us decide those last spots. We therefore turn to the qualitative and possibly the more important factors: The heat, their mentality, and how we think the race will play out.
The Heat
While it’s not going to be very hot for a summer 10k, it’s the humidity that’ll get someone. It all depends whether the race will be fast from the gun or “tactical” aka slow. If it is fast, then we hope that all four guys have done some sort of heat acclimation. In terms of preparing for an unhappy Mother Nature, we've seen Ritz do some serious homework.
38 Celsius, 85% humidity, infrared lighting... I’m sweating just thinking about it.
Not only did he prep his body for the grueling heat that would be the 2008 Olympic Marathon in Beijing, but we run well in it, too. That being said, True has told Runner’s World that, “If it is hot and humid, most likely it’ll be a slow tactical race and fast at the end. That probably will be better for me, but I’m going to be prepared either way.”
True can talk the talk, but can he walk Ritz' walk?
Edit: Don't forget the pollen count, too. Will Rupp don the mask and become the hero Des Moines deserves, but not the one it needs right now? We also like weather.com's "More Info" for the Grass PollenCast.
Then...
Oh, okay. That clears everything up (YES PUN INTENDED).
The Final Lap
Unlike, well almost forever, making the 10k team isn’t all about general fitness. You need to be able to kick hard off a moderately fast pace.
While Derrick and True have both set personal bests at 1500m this season, we again agree with the guys at LetsRun and think that turnover doesn't to equate to a good kick. However, foot speed does play a role and we feel that hurts Ritz’ chances if the race comes down to less than 400m.
If Derrick and True are in front of Ritz at 9800m, then it’s all over for the former American record holder. We just don’t see kicking down either of those two guys (it also doesn’t help that his 1500m PR is from eleven years ago).
Then, in the very next sentence, we’ll contradict ourselves and say that Ritz has been working on his speed as his training group’s mantra is “It’s All About the Last Lap.” After a slow early pace, Ritz looked strong over the latter stages of the OXY HP 5k. I mean, have you seen the Nike Oregon Project bust out a 300m rep at altitude? This is the closest to Running Porn that we can get without being fined by the FCC.
Note: We also looked back to when Ritz set his 10k PR (27:22.28) and beat Rupp at the '09 World Championships. In that race in Berlin, Ritz' last kilometer was 2:43.19. That was the fourth fastest finisher behind Kenenisa Bekele (gold), Zersenay Tadese (silver), and Moses Masai (bronze).
What about last year? Well, the 2012 Olympic Trials was fast from the gun because Ritz needed the "A" standard and Rupp was willing to help, but we wondered who had the best last 400m. Turns out, it was Derrick.
2012 U.S. Olympic Trials
Rupp - 63.x (4:13.2 last mile)
Tegenkamp - 65.5
Ritz - 67.8
Derrick - 62.51
It should also be noted that Ritz virtually shut down with 100m as he knew that he had earned the spot.
It’s crazy to think that race was just a year ago. Now, Tegenkamp is out of the question and we’re looking all the way down the 12th place finisher to fill the void.
Note: Speaking of last year, how crazy has the evolution in the men’s 10k been over the last few years? Last year, “11 guys broke 28:00 in the race tonight. Prior to [that race], 28:00 had only been broken 13 times at the Trials. As a result, the top 11 all ran the fastest times for place ever at the US trials.”
Not to mention that Rupp, Teg, and Ritz all broke the Olympic Trials record of 27:36.49 (Meb Keflezighi from ’04). Now, if you want to be competitive in the U.S., you have to run under that mark. Progress, baby.
What about the guy who has made the biggest jump in the last 365 days? In his first race on the track after nearly six months, True won the Mt. SAC 1500m in 3:40.07 and ruined everyone’s Running Warehouse Prediction Contest. The main thing to takeaway from that race isn’t the win or the time, but the final lap. According to coach Mark Coogan, True basically jogged the first 1100m before unleashing a 54.7 last lap.
That’s some serious stuff. True had the following to say about his developing kick.
“The only time I try and visualize people is trying to get a blowout 400m at the end of a workout. The last 100m I always visualize a few guys on my shoulder and I’m trying to stay away from or get passed them... [That person] changes, especially down the last 100m. Lagat... he comes to mind a few times.”
Come Thursday, it won’t be Lagat that True will have to worry about on the final straightaway.
Just Remember, Running is 80% Mental and 40% Physical
If a Team USA jersey wasn't enough, there will also be some pride on the line.
For True, it’s redemption. Last year, he came down with Lyme disease before the Trials and placed twelfth in the 10k and sixth in the 5k. Now he's not just a face in the crowd. He belongs there.
For Ritz, the Trials was a secondary option that proved to be his saving grace. After taking fourth in the U.S. Marathon Trials, Ritz came back to the track and earned the right to once again dawn the Team USA jersey. When it comes to making a U.S. team, Ritz is clutch.
For Derrick, he was the odd man out. The Stanford senior had come down with plantar fasciitis before NCAAs and even though he’d done everything right, he still had to settle for tha dreaded fourth place. Was he disappointed after the race? Not necessarily.
One thing we like about Derrick is that he's well-grounded. When he was asked whether he considered himself “unlucky,” Derrick answered that it the competition made him a better runner. After all, the three guys that beat him all broke the Trials record. He took nothing for granted and without the tough competition, he might not be where he is now.
But after coming so close, we doubt that he’ll feel “unlucky” if he once again finishes fourth.
Prediction
Rupp is a lock. Derrick has been spot on whenever he’s stepped on the track. That leaves Ritz and True.
There may be only space between these two paragraphs, but the time it took to come to a conclusion took longer than the two connecting flights to Des Moines. With the exception of the 2012 marathon team, we think that whenever he's run a U.S. Trial, Ritz may have never failed to make a team. He's a gamer. On the other hand, True is admist the his best year, ever. It's hard to not get caught up in the hype.
If the race is slow, we’ll take True. If it’s fast, we’ll take Ritz. Since they all have the “A” and it’s going to be humid, we think the first option will be put into play.
Rupp, Derrick, and True.
Before Thursday night, we won’t try and figure out who will make the men’s 10k team for the IAAF World Championships, but who will be left out. Even during the car ride to airport where we bid adieu to Ryan Fenton, we couldn’t come to definitive conclusion.
Either Dathan Ritzenhein, Ben True, Chris Derrick, or Galen Rupp will leave Des Moines without a plane ticket to Moscow.
Since we’re a pragmatic group, we’ll let you decide who you choose:
|
SBs / PRs |
Runner A |
Runner B |
Runner C |
|
1500m |
3:39.45 | 3:40.07 | N/A |
|
5000m |
13:09.04 | 13:14.44 | 13:09.53 |
|
12k @ USAs |
35:39 | 35:56.6 | 35:45 |
|
10000m PR |
27:31.38 | 27:41.17 | 27:22.28 |
If it hasn’t become obvious by now, those are the seasonal bests and 10k personal bests of Derrick, True, and Ritz (in that order). Who’s missing? Just the Olympic silver medalist, Galen Rupp.
Yes, we didn’t include him on the list of maybes. Yes, he hasn’t been able to replicate his incredible form from the winter. Yes, he should have some sense of urgency after Derrick and Ritz were were within a second of beating him at the Prefontaine Classic.
Despite the doubts, it’s safe to assume that Rupp will make it. It may seem weird that we need to add this qualifier after he just had the best season of his career, but crazier things have happened to Olympic silver medalists (read: Leo Manzano). Plus, the weather may play a pollen-mask-is-needed-role.
If Rupp doesn’t make the team, I will blend my hat with some ice cream, chocolate syrup, some Gummi Bears, and eat it.
So we’re down to three in this game of musical chairs (or if you’re a bit more morbid, Russian Roulette). Speaking of pragmatism, why don’t we just use this season’s results as our main guide to pick the odd the man out. That would be a convenient solution if not for the fact that their results are more tangled an NCAA men’s 1500m final (too soon?).
USA Cross Country Championships: Derrick (1st) > Ritz (2nd) > True (5th)
IAAF World Cross Championships: True (6th) > Derrick (10th)
Prefontaine Classic 5k: Derrick (7th) > Ritz (9th)
Their seasonal bests are too similar and head-to-head competition has been a toss-up. Even their 10k personal bests lead to to a dead-end because the two slowest, Derrick and True, are having career years.
To make matters worse, when they’ve run against the same competition, the results have been almost identical. As LetsRun points out, “In New York, True lost to [Ibrahim] Jeilan by 0.48. A week later at Pre, Ritz lost to him by 0.37.” I can’t believe even the transitive property failed us.
There is no obvious information to help us decide those last spots. We therefore turn to the qualitative and possibly the more important factors: The heat, their mentality, and how we think the race will play out.
The Heat
While it’s not going to be very hot for a summer 10k, it’s the humidity that’ll get someone. It all depends whether the race will be fast from the gun or “tactical” aka slow. If it is fast, then we hope that all four guys have done some sort of heat acclimation. In terms of preparing for an unhappy Mother Nature, we've seen Ritz do some serious homework.
38 Celsius, 85% humidity, infrared lighting... I’m sweating just thinking about it.
Not only did he prep his body for the grueling heat that would be the 2008 Olympic Marathon in Beijing, but we run well in it, too. That being said, True has told Runner’s World that, “If it is hot and humid, most likely it’ll be a slow tactical race and fast at the end. That probably will be better for me, but I’m going to be prepared either way.”
True can talk the talk, but can he walk Ritz' walk?
Edit: Don't forget the pollen count, too. Will Rupp don the mask and become the hero Des Moines deserves, but not the one it needs right now? We also like weather.com's "More Info" for the Grass PollenCast.
Then...
Oh, okay. That clears everything up (YES PUN INTENDED).
The Final Lap
Unlike, well almost forever, making the 10k team isn’t all about general fitness. You need to be able to kick hard off a moderately fast pace.
While Derrick and True have both set personal bests at 1500m this season, we again agree with the guys at LetsRun and think that turnover doesn't to equate to a good kick. However, foot speed does play a role and we feel that hurts Ritz’ chances if the race comes down to less than 400m.
If Derrick and True are in front of Ritz at 9800m, then it’s all over for the former American record holder. We just don’t see kicking down either of those two guys (it also doesn’t help that his 1500m PR is from eleven years ago).
Then, in the very next sentence, we’ll contradict ourselves and say that Ritz has been working on his speed as his training group’s mantra is “It’s All About the Last Lap.” After a slow early pace, Ritz looked strong over the latter stages of the OXY HP 5k. I mean, have you seen the Nike Oregon Project bust out a 300m rep at altitude? This is the closest to Running Porn that we can get without being fined by the FCC.
Note: We also looked back to when Ritz set his 10k PR (27:22.28) and beat Rupp at the '09 World Championships. In that race in Berlin, Ritz' last kilometer was 2:43.19. That was the fourth fastest finisher behind Kenenisa Bekele (gold), Zersenay Tadese (silver), and Moses Masai (bronze).
What about last year? Well, the 2012 Olympic Trials was fast from the gun because Ritz needed the "A" standard and Rupp was willing to help, but we wondered who had the best last 400m. Turns out, it was Derrick.
2012 U.S. Olympic Trials
Rupp - 63.x (4:13.2 last mile)
Tegenkamp - 65.5
Ritz - 67.8
Derrick - 62.51
It should also be noted that Ritz virtually shut down with 100m as he knew that he had earned the spot.
It’s crazy to think that race was just a year ago. Now, Tegenkamp is out of the question and we’re looking all the way down the 12th place finisher to fill the void.
Note: Speaking of last year, how crazy has the evolution in the men’s 10k been over the last few years? Last year, “11 guys broke 28:00 in the race tonight. Prior to [that race], 28:00 had only been broken 13 times at the Trials. As a result, the top 11 all ran the fastest times for place ever at the US trials.”
Not to mention that Rupp, Teg, and Ritz all broke the Olympic Trials record of 27:36.49 (Meb Keflezighi from ’04). Now, if you want to be competitive in the U.S., you have to run under that mark. Progress, baby.
What about the guy who has made the biggest jump in the last 365 days? In his first race on the track after nearly six months, True won the Mt. SAC 1500m in 3:40.07 and ruined everyone’s Running Warehouse Prediction Contest. The main thing to takeaway from that race isn’t the win or the time, but the final lap. According to coach Mark Coogan, True basically jogged the first 1100m before unleashing a 54.7 last lap.
That’s some serious stuff. True had the following to say about his developing kick.
“The only time I try and visualize people is trying to get a blowout 400m at the end of a workout. The last 100m I always visualize a few guys on my shoulder and I’m trying to stay away from or get passed them... [That person] changes, especially down the last 100m. Lagat... he comes to mind a few times.”
Come Thursday, it won’t be Lagat that True will have to worry about on the final straightaway.
Just Remember, Running is 80% Mental and 40% Physical
If a Team USA jersey wasn't enough, there will also be some pride on the line.
For True, it’s redemption. Last year, he came down with Lyme disease before the Trials and placed twelfth in the 10k and sixth in the 5k. Now he's not just a face in the crowd. He belongs there.
For Ritz, the Trials was a secondary option that proved to be his saving grace. After taking fourth in the U.S. Marathon Trials, Ritz came back to the track and earned the right to once again dawn the Team USA jersey. When it comes to making a U.S. team, Ritz is clutch.
For Derrick, he was the odd man out. The Stanford senior had come down with plantar fasciitis before NCAAs and even though he’d done everything right, he still had to settle for tha dreaded fourth place. Was he disappointed after the race? Not necessarily.
One thing we like about Derrick is that he's well-grounded. When he was asked whether he considered himself “unlucky,” Derrick answered that it the competition made him a better runner. After all, the three guys that beat him all broke the Trials record. He took nothing for granted and without the tough competition, he might not be where he is now.
But after coming so close, we doubt that he’ll feel “unlucky” if he once again finishes fourth.
Prediction
Rupp is a lock. Derrick has been spot on whenever he’s stepped on the track. That leaves Ritz and True.
There may be only space between these two paragraphs, but the time it took to come to a conclusion took longer than the two connecting flights to Des Moines. With the exception of the 2012 marathon team, we think that whenever he's run a U.S. Trial, Ritz may have never failed to make a team. He's a gamer. On the other hand, True is admist the his best year, ever. It's hard to not get caught up in the hype.
If the race is slow, we’ll take True. If it’s fast, we’ll take Ritz. Since they all have the “A” and it’s going to be humid, we think the first option will be put into play.
Rupp, Derrick, and True.
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